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The New York migrant crisis up close
Since 2022, New York City has absorbed more than 170,000 migrants, mostly sent on buses by Texas officials from the US-Mexico border. Many of them are asylum-seekers who hail from South American countries facing political and economic upheaval, like Venezuela and El Salvador. But increasingly, people from Asia, western Africa, and the Caribbean have been making the difficult journey to the US via the southern border as well.
Unlike other so-called “sanctuary cities,” New York has a legal mandate, known as a consent decree, that requires the city to provide shelter to anyone who asks for it. But the already under-funded, under-resourced system is struggling to deal with the influx of so many people. Adding to the chaos, in October, the city changed its policy to require everyone in the shelter system to reapply for a bed every 30-60 days. For asylum seekers already trying to navigate byzantine legal and healthcare systems, the instability can have devastating consequences.
That’s why grassroots organizers like Power Malu of Artists Athletes Activists, Adama Bah of Afrikana, and Ilze Thielmann of TeamTLC have been stepping up to fill a major gap in the city’s immigration system: greeting arrivals, pointing them towards resources, providing food and clothing. Most crucially, they're help people understand their rights and apply for asylum, so they can get work permits and find permanent housing.
Speaking from the front lines of this crisis, the organizers say the city isn't fully meeting the needs of the migrants coming here, despite spending $1.45 billion on migrant costs alone in 2023. "The illusion is that they're in these beautiful hotels and they're getting all of these services and it's not true," Malu says, "That's why you have organizations like ours that have stepped up and had to change from welcoming to now doing case management, social services, helping them with mental health therapy."
GZERO’s Alex Kliment spent time on the ground with newly-arrived asylum-seekers and the volunteers to better understand the reality on the ground, how this current crisis getting so much national attention is functioning day to day, and if the city could be doing more to help.
GZERO has reached out to City Hall for comment and will update with any response.
Learn more about the organizations mentioned in this report:
Catch this full episode of GZERO World with Ian Bremmer on public television beginning this Friday, March 15. Check local listings.
Why Republicans hold Biden accountable for border problems
President Truman famously had a sign on his Oval Office desk that read: "The buck stops here." Indiana Republican Congresswoman Victoria Spartz believes that truth holds when it comes to President Biden and US immigration dysfunction as well.
"I will lay responsibility on President Biden because he is in charge," Spartz tells Ian Bremmer in an interview for GZERO World. "He's a top executive president. Trump is campaigning to be president, so I'll judge him if he is a president, I think he will likely might be."
Ian interviewed House members on both sides of the political aisle for this episode, and Spartz, a Ukrainian immigrant who supports increased US aid to her home country, is not surprised that the bipartisan border deal could not deliver it.
Watch full episode here: The US border at a tipping point
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week online and on US public television. Check local listings.
- Ian Explains: Why Congress can't fix the US border problem ›
- Will Democrats and Republicans head for the border? ›
- Migrant and housing crises hit both sides of border ›
- Hard Numbers: A loss for the GOP in Ohio, Poland beefs up border, shark attacks in Gotham, chips fall well for Dresden, Chinese parents swipe for their kids ›
- Zelensky agrees with GOP on border crisis ›
United States Senator Ron Johnson (Republican of Wisconsin)
Will Democrats and Republicans head for the border?
But there is now more talk in Washington of a legislative compromise that Dems would accept and Republicans would cheer in the form of policies that make it tougher for asylum-seekers to enter the US.
Why might the Dems give way? They want more money from Republicans to help Ukraine repel Russia, and concessions on border policy might help. Dems also worry that another border crisis will undermine their 2024 election chances by boosting Republican turnout and diverting attention from other issues – like abortion rights – where Democrats hold a stronger political hand.
What’s the Republican calculation? Winning Dem concessions to tighten the border is a political victory, but an election-year border crisis on Biden’s watch might be more valuable.
We’ll be watching to see how heavyweights in each party play their respective political hands.
Finland's PM Sanna Marin at news conference in Stockholm, Sweden, February 2, 2023.
Finland’s next step
This is a big moment for Finland. For decades, its leaders tried to safeguard its security by remaining officially neutral in conflicts between giant neighbor Russia and the West. A clear majority of Finns considered that the more prudent choice. Since the end of the Cold War, Finland has drawn closer to NATO but remained outside the alliance to avoid provoking the Kremlin.
Then Russia invaded Ukraine, and Finnish minds quickly changed. Polls say nearly 80% of Finns support full NATO membership, and the alliance is eager to welcome a valuable new partner.
Finland’s application cleared its one remaining hurdle on Thursday as lawmakers in Turkey, the last NATO member needed to make it official, approved Finland’s bid. Nothing left now but paperwork.
And this Sunday, voters in Finland will choose the party and prime minister who will lead the nation in this historic step. At stake are all 200 seats in Finland’s parliament, which are now divided among nine different parties.
Current Prime Minister Sanna Marin hopes her center-left Social Democrats will win enough seats to lead the next government, allowing her to finish the NATO process she pushed into motion last year. Polls suggest the race will be close because the center-right National Coalition Party and the far-right Finns Party both appear strong.
If the election becomes a referendum on personal attitudes toward Marin, her party has a good shot. A recent poll shows that nearly two-thirds of Finnish voters say she’s done a solid job leading the country through the pandemic and the crisis created by Russia’s war.
Marin’s party, however, is less popular than its leader, and the nativist Finns Party has seen its popularity surge. Led by Riikka Purra, another of the country’s rising female politicians, the Finns are known mainly for their pledge to end all migration into Finland from outside the European Union. The center-right National Coalition is led by Petteri Orpo, the only man to lead one of the country’s leading parties.
Because it’s so popular in Finland, NATO membership has figured only indirectly in the election campaign. Orpo says it’s irresponsible for Marin to mull the provision of fighter jets to Ukraine, for example. Instead, voter perceptions of Finland’s high-and-rising cost of living, the importance of the government balancing its books, and the future of immigration policy will decide which party is best positioned to lead a coalition government. (No individual party is likely to win more than 20-25% of seats. Post-election bargaining over partnerships will take time.)
But pocketbook issues aside, Finland’s next prime minister will lead a NATO country with a Russian border that’s as long (more than 800 miles) as those of all other NATO countries put together. Moscow is very likely to reinforce its military presence – and make occasional mischief – along that long frontier.
Across the line, Finland has the largest and best-equipped artillery forces in Western Europe, according to the Wilson Center, a US think tank, as well as a conscription system that could mobilize 280,000 soldiers with hundreds of thousands more in reserve. This is a force NATO is glad to welcome.
In short, on Sunday, Finnish voters may focus mainly on their economic future, but the government they elect will face security choices and risks that no Finnish prime minister has ever faced.
The Graphic Truth: Biden's new immigration play
Immigration is always a divisive political issue, but it’s been particularly loaded for President Joe Biden, who has seen a record number of migrants fleeing political and economic crises in Latin America arrive at the US southern land border under his watch. To address this issue – used as a cudgel by Republicans – Biden recently announced a new immigration policy, whereby migrants from Nicaragua, Haiti, Cuba, in addition to Venezuela, would be eligible for “parole” – meaning temporary two-year work visas – only if they apply for asylum from outside the US. Mexico, for its part, has agreed to take in 30,000 migrants each month from these countries expelled by the US. How many people will this plan impact? We take a look at monthly migrant arrivals from these four countries in 2022.
Will Marine Le Pen's rebrand help her win?
Many people know a few basic facts about Marine Le Pen, head of France's far-right National Rally party. They know that she is the daughter of Jean-Marie Le Pen, founder of her party's predecessor, the National Front, known mainly for xenophobia and anti-semitism. They know that she is firmly anti-immigration and adopts a harsh view of what she calls "the rise of Islamism." Marine Le Pen has built a political identity based on these appeals.
But recently, Le Pen has tried to rebrand her image in order to win votes ahead of France's upcoming presidential elections in April 2022. What is Le Pen trying to change, and how might this impact her electoral prospects?
Policy shifts. For years, the junior Le Pen called for France to exit the European Union, arguing that ceding sovereignty to the "globalist" EU strips political power from the French working class. Having once called Europe a "prison" and vowing to hold a UK-style referendum on leaving the bloc, Le Pen has since said that she does not supportFrexit: the EU should be reformed from within, she says.
In particular, Le Pen has cited the rise of right-wing European movements — like Lega in Italy and the Swedish Democrats — as proof that there is growing consensus within other European countries for the EU to adopt her ideas on curbing migration into the Union, as well as weakening the European Commission, the bloc's executive branch, which she says has acquired powers far beyond those given to it in treaties.
As part of this shift, Le Pen has also abandoned part of her populist economic agenda, saying that replacing the euro would cause too much instability — likely an effort to appeal to fiscally conservative French voters who might otherwise support the center-right Republicains.
Personal image. For years, Le Pen marketed herself as a tough, no-holds-barred politician, referring to herself as a "warrior" of sorts. But even as she prepares for the fight of her political life, it is clear that the 52-year old veteran politician is now trying to soften her image. "It's time to drop my armor," she said in one recent interview, adding: "I think I have the maturity today, to drop this toughness," before highlighting her qualities as a mother. Some analysts see this as part of a push to broaden her appeal, particularly to women and younger voters.
In tweaking her brand and positioning the National Rally as mainstream, Le Pen is also trying to court establishment center-right voters dissatisfied with the country's current trajectory. (At an event in western France, Le Pen introduced a prominent French businessman as the head of NR's ticket in regional elections, trying to appeal to other would-be defectors .)
And for now, this approach appears to be working: Le Pen is neck-and-neck in the polls with incumbent President Emmanuel Macron.
An unpopular incumbent. Le Pen's campaign is aided by the fact that she will likely face a very unpopular incumbent. Even before the pandemic, Macron's approval rating was weak (67 percent disapproved of his performance). He had lost the support of much of the left-wing flank who think he has shown too much deference to corporate interests and failed to follow through on climate mitigation efforts. This was evident when Macron's La République En Marche party got thrashed in local elections last year.
Perceptions that Macron has mishandled the pandemic have only weakened his standing with the French electorate. This helps Le Pen, who is now traveling the country and mingling with voters, while Macron is focused on reopening the economy after 14-months of painful lockdowns.
Indeed, it's possible that lack of enthusiasm for Macron's candidacy could lead to low voter turnout next year that would make it harder for him to clear the 50 percent threshold needed to secure the presidency than it was in 2017, when in the second round of voting Macron trounced his opponent… Marine Le Pen.
Once a Le Pen, always a Le Pen. Le Pen, aware she can't afford to lose her traditional voters, isn't trying to redefine her entire shtick. In April, she backed a contentious letter by retired French military officials that said "Islamism" was leading France toward a "civil war" — a view reiterated in a letter last week by active military members who wrote: "If a civil war breaks out, the army will maintain order on its own soil." Le Pen also continues to use anti-immigrant and anti-Muslim rhetoric that many say have inflamed inter-communal tensions in France.
And even if Le Pen wants voters to see her in a new light, the Le Pen brand might still be too toxic to get her into the Élysée Palace. For many French sympathetic to her views on immigration and "Islamism," memories of Jean Le Pen's racism and anti-semitism remain too much to overcome.
Toronto the next Silicon Valley; AI in policing; NYC Marathon
Nicholas Thompson, editor-in-chief of WIRED, discusses technology industry news today:
Will Toronto become the next Silicon Valley?
A lot of really smart engineers are going to Toronto instead of the United States because of this country's self-defeating immigration policies. Building Silicon Valley requires even more. And ideally, there will be time for the United States to reverse all of its bad policies.
What role should AI play in policing?
There's a big scandal. Face recognition algorithms leading to an unjust arrest of a man for the very first time. Not surprisingly, this algorithms tend to not recognize black people. The man who was arrested in Detroit was black. I do not think that police departments should be relying on facial recognition for anything more than basic lead generation.
The New York City Marathon was just canceled. When will you next feel comfortable running a marathon?
I think it's going to be a while. I'd run a small marathon. People spaced out. Not one where there are thousands of people hunched together at the start.