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South Africa to hold May elections
The election will be a referendum on the ANC, which has been mired in controversy over record levels of crime, slow economic growth, unemployment, and rolling blackouts. Alongside the election announcement, the ANC bumped up social benefits in an attempt to raise polling numbers.
The ANC’s biggest rival, the Democratic Alliance, is trying to build a coalition of smaller parties to break the ANC's majority. The third biggest party, Economic Freedom Fighters, is not considering joining the opposition coalition and is eating into ANC’s support following its promise to double social benefits if elected.
Right now, opinion polls show ANC approval ratings below 50%. If this translates into votes, it will mean the ANC will have to form the country’s first-ever coalition government to keep Ramaphosa — a political protege of Mandela — as president for a second and final five-year term.Explainer: South Africa’s genocide case against Israel
South Africa has formally accused Israel of committing genocide against Palestinians and began making its case against the Jewish state before the International Court of Justice on Thursday.
The allegation, which comes amid the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza, touches on an incredibly sensitive issue for Israel: Genocide was recognized as a crime under international law during the late 1940s in the aftermath of the Holocaust, during which the Nazis murdered six million Jews. The word “genocide” was even coined by a Polish-Jewish lawyer, Raphael Lemkin, who lost much of his family during the Holocaust.
The war in Gaza, which began after Hamas killed roughly 1,200 people in Israel on Oct. 7, has devastated the densely populated coastal enclave on myriad levels. More than 23,000 people, including over 10,000 children – about 1% of Gaza’s population – have been killed since the fighting began, according to the Hamas-run health ministry. Approximately 1.9 million people have been displaced. The humanitarian situation is dire, and the UN recently warned a famine could ensue.
Israel has faced global condemnation over its approach to the war, but it has rejected widespread calls for a cease-fire and is forcefully pushing back against the notion its actions have constituted genocide.
The legal definition of genocide. The 1948 Genocide Convention defines it as "acts committed with intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnical, racial or religious group.”
The keyword here is “intent.” Prosecutors must prove that the accused acted with specific intent to eliminate an entire group – and that’s not an easy task.
The view from South Africa. The rainbow nation is accusing Israel of violating its obligations under the 1948 Genocide Convention.
“Israel has a genocidal intent against the Palestinians in Gaza,” Tembeka Ngcukaitobi, advocate of the High Court of South Africa, told the UN’s top court on Thursday. “The intent to destroy Gaza has been nurtured at the highest level of state.”
By way of evidence, South Africa pointed to statements made by top Israeli officials, such as Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, who said the Jewish state was fighting “human animals” in Gaza.
Another lawyer for South Africa, Adila Hassim, said Israel has killed an “unparalleled and unprecedented number of civilians” in Gaza “with the full knowledge of how many lives each bomb will take.”
The view from Israel. Israeli leaders maintain that the offensive in Gaza is against Hamas – not all Palestinians – and they accuse South Africa of serving as the “legal arm” of the Palestinian militant group.
Israel’s government says that it’s not intentionally killing civilians and that it’s doing everything it can to avoid collateral damage. It has repeatedly pointed the finger at Hamas for the rising death toll, stating that the militant group endangers civilians by operating in residential areas.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ripped into South Africa on Thursday, accusing it of hypocrisy while reiterating that Israel would continue to fight in Gaza until “total victory.”
What’s next? South Africa is calling on the ICJ to issue a preliminary order to demand Israel cease fighting. This ruling could potentially come in the next few weeks, but the full case – or a final decision on the genocide allegations – is likely to take years.
At the end of the day, the ICJ also has no real power to enforce its rulings, even though they’re binding and not subject to appeal. South Africa could request that the UN Security Council take action in response to an ICJ decision. But the US, a permanent member of the council with veto power, is Israel’s top ally and would likely take steps to protect it.
Past UN tribunals have convicted individuals of genocide in cases about massacres in Rwanda and the former Yugoslavia in the 1990s. But the ICJ, which adjudicates disputes between states (unlike the International Criminal Court, which focuses on individuals), has never determined that a state is responsible for genocide.
Israel will deliver its response before the ICJ on Friday. Regardless of where this case goes – and even if the Israeli government ignores any potential rulings against it – it’s emblematic of the growing, fierce international opposition to Israel’s offensive in Gaza.
South Africa's divided opposition boosts the ANC
The Democratic Alliance, the country’s largest opposition bloc, has formed alliances with smaller parties. But many black South Africans continue to see the DA as a white-dominated party, though the party leadership is much more multi-racial than a decade ago. More importantly, new opposition candidates continue to emerge to lead new parties that remain outside the “charter” meant to unify challengers to push the ANC from power.
South Africa’s high unemployment, weak economy, and crumbling infrastructure have created voter demand for an ANC alternative. But until a single standard-bearer can win a clear majority of the anti-ANC vote, single-party rule looks likely to continue. That’s good political news for Ramaphosa, but the country’s chronic economic problems are likely to continue.
Hard Numbers: Malaysia backs Hamas, Democrats win key races, fighting in Ethiopia's Amhara region, South Africa’s highway terror, Europe invests in space
77 billion: Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim jeopardized his country’s $77 billion trade relationship with the United States this week by coming out hard in support of Hamas, with which Malaysia has long maintained ties. Anwar, who compared the group to Nelson Mandela, could run afoul of the Hamas International Financing Prevention Act and invite US sanctions on his country — but the rise of the Islamist PAS party and the fragility of his multi-ethnic coalition are pushing him to appeal to such sentiment despite his reputation as a liberal reformer.
3: Democrats won three major off-cycle elections in the US last night, taking the Kentucky governorship, keeping the Virginia state senate, and winning a ballot measure in Ohio to protect abortion rights. The wins come despite weak poll numbers for President Joe Biden, and seem to reinforce the view that GOP overreach on abortion helps turn Democrats out on voting day. For more on the long term consequences, read Eurasia Group expert Kylie Milliken's take.
3,000: Fighting between federal troops and local militias in Ethiopia’s Amhara region has displaced 3,000 people in recent months, according to the Ethiopia Human Rights Commission. From 2020-2022, Amharan troops helped the government to put down a rebellion by militants in the Tigray region, but since then they have refused orders to integrate with national security forces. As a result, government forces have begun cracking down on people suspected of supporting the Amharan militias.
280,000: South Africans suffered 280,000 carjackings between April 2022 and March 2023 (the latest period for which statistics are available) amid an epidemic of violent crime on the roadways that recently ensnared the country’s transport minister. More shocking: The figure for 2021/22 was even higher, with carjackings totaling 330,000.
340 million: France, Germany, and Italy agreed to jointly put up €340 million ($365 million) annually for European space exploration company Arianespace to launch its Ariane 6 rocket at least four times per year and another lighter launcher at least three times. The investment is intended to make Europe’s space sector more competitive with American firms like SpaceX.Hard Numbers: Otis death toll mounts, Taiwanese march for marriage equality, illegal Indian migrants in the US, South Africa’s rugby win, Sweden proves No. 1
43: The death toll in Acapulco following Hurricane Otis now stands at 43. Another five were killed in nearby Coyuca de Benitez, and dozens of people remain missing. Authorities say more than 220,000 homes and 80% of the hotel sector have been damaged, while more than 513,000 people have lost power.
180,000: An estimated 180,000 people marched on Saturday in a Taipei Pride march – East Asia’s largest – including the country’s leading presidential candidate. The most senior government official to ever attend, Vice President Lai Ching-te declared, "Equal marriage is not the end — it's the starting point for diversity. I will stand steadfast on this path."
42,000: Approximately 42,000 migrants from India crossed the southern US border illegally between October 2022 and September 2023, according to data compiled by the US Customs and Border Protection. That’s more than double the previous record number from the same period a year earlier. An additional 1,600 have crossed illegally from the northern border, four times the number who crossed in the last three years combined.
4: In what was described as an epic, rainy seesaw of a match, South Africa won its fourth consecutive world rugby title, beating New Zealand 12-11. No team has ever won four titles, making South Africa’s Springboks the undisputed rulers of rugby.
1: Let’s move to Sweden! In a ranking of 87 countries by cost of living, Numbeo ranked Sweden number one for affordability, safety, and overall quality of life. The cost of living in Sweden is, on average, 20.9% lower than in the United States, while renting is 57.5% lower.
Hard Numbers: Mass shooter kills in Maine, Mexico slammed by sudden hurricane, UAW makes deal with Ford, South African miners resurface, and Meloni takes a breakup break
16: A man in Lewiston, Maine, killed at least 16 people and injured dozens more in two mass shootings last night at a restaurant and bowling alley. The killer remains at large, and authorities urge all residents to shelter in place.
165: Hurricane Otis barreled into southwestern Mexico on Wednesday with sustained winds of over 165 mph after a sudden intensification overnight transformed it into a Category 5 storm — and left authorities in Guerrero state with virtually no time to respond. Damage is expected to be severe, and experts at the National Hurricane Center said, “There are no hurricanes on record even close to this intensity for this part of Mexico.”
25: United Auto Workers reached a tentative four-year deal with Ford on Wednesday that would, if approved by union members, mean a 25% salary boost in addition to cost-of-living raises. UAW advised members to return to work at Ford, which will pressure the other car brands involved in the six-week strike, GM and Stellantis, to follow suit.
107: More than 100 miners locked in a tense dispute between rival labor unions in South Africa’s Gold One mine have emerged from underground, where they had been trapped since Sunday night. Those who resurfaced confirmed that more of their colleagues are being held against their will by miners associated with the other union and that over a dozen people were injured in scuffles between the groups.
1: Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni took a personal day this week following her sudden breakup with television presenter Andrea Giambruno. Her partner of 10 years and the father of her seven-year-old daughter, Giambruno was caught on a hot mic bragging about a workplace affair while trying to pick up a third woman. Calling into a party conference, Meloni reminded Italians that “I, too, am human.”
The Global South is angry and mistrustful - Ian Bremmer
Frustrated with the lack of equitable access to vaccines, economic challenges, and climate change impacts while wealthier countries fail to fulfill their pledges, the Global South is angry and mistrustful, said Ian Bremmer, president of Eurasia Group, during a Global Stage livestream event at UN headquarters in New York on September 22, on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly.
"They feel like their agenda is irrelevant, that they are the takers, not in any way the collaborators or makers on the rule space and how we're going to deal with global governance challenges," Bremmer says.
Its leaders, however, have already started acting to position themselves as key players in the global governance discussions. Before the United Nations General Assembly, dozens of world leaders met for the first-ever Africa Climate Summit in a bid to take agency. They are set to advance the conversation at the COP28 in Dubai next month.
The discussion was moderated by Nicholas Thompson of The Atlantic. It was held by GZERO Media in collaboration with the United Nations, the Complex Risk Analytics Fund, and the Early Warnings for All initiative.
Dive into the conversation to learn about how countries like Brazil and India are shaping the AI space: Can data and AI save lives and make the world safer?
Africa's economy could rival China or India, says WTO chief Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala
The African continent has a population of 1.4 billion people, but it imports more than 90% of its medicines and 90% of its vaccines. WTO Director General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala says the time has come to open up the continent to globalization and encourage businesses to invest in African countries.
On GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, Okonjo-Iweala makes the case for decentralizing and diversifying global trade to open up new markets, bring Global South countries into the mainstream of the world economy, and reduce reliance on any one country for crucial goods and services.
Africa hasn’t yet globalized, but when it does fully integrate into the world economy, it could create a domestic market of over a billion people that rivals that of China and India.
“Africa has about 3% of world trade, and that’s too small,” Okonjo-Iweala says. “When, not if, that experiment really gets going of Africans integrating better with themselves and trading, that is automatically very attractive for trade for the world.”
Watch the full interview: World trade at risk without globalization, warns WTO chief Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week at gzeromedia.com/gzeroworld or on US public television. Check local listings.
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