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A drone view of rescue workers conducting a rescue operation at a collapsed building in the aftermath of a 6.9-magnitude earthquake in Bogo, Cebu, Philippines, on October 1, 2025.
Hard Numbers: Earthquake rocks the Philippines, UN expands Haiti mission, Moscow cuts military budget, & More
69: A 6.9-magnitude earthquake struck off Cebu, Philippines, late Tuesday night, killing at least 69 and injuring hundreds. The quake caused landslides, building collapses, and power outages in a region still recovering from recent storms.
5,500: The UN has approved expanding its Haiti security mission into a 5,500-strong force to combat rampant gang violence. Backed by the US and Panama, the decision will add to the current 1,000 officers, mostly from Kenya, already deployed to support Haitian police.
$156 billion: Russia’s military budget next year is set to be $156 billion, down from the $163 billion this year, marking the first drop since the beginning of its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Still, the military budget remains high – it’s nearly four times larger than in 2021. To help fund the war effort, the government is also set to increase the value-added tax from 20% to 22%.
15: South African opposition leader Julius Malema – who heads the far-left, black nationalist Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) – was found guilty of publicly discharging a firearm, an offense that carries a maximum sentence of 15 years. Malema fired 14 to 15 rounds in front of 20,000 supporters during an EFF celebration in the Eastern Cape in 2018.
Kenyan workers prepare clothes for export at the New Wide Garment Export Processing Zone (EPZ) factory operating under the U.S. African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), in Kitengela, Kajiado County, Kenya, on September 19, 2025.
Is the US set to terminate a 33-country trade deal?
The African Growth and Opportunity Act, a trade pact that allows many products from 32 sub-Saharan African states to have free access to US markets, is set to expire in less than a week.
The White House still hasn’t said whether it will renew it.
First signed in 2000 by then-US President Bill Clinton, who saw it as a way to spread democratic ideals in parts of Africa, the deal hasn’t always lived up to expectations. Trade between the countries involved did initially rise, but has since dropped. For most of the countries involved, exports under AGOA account for less than 1% of GDP.
“AGOA’s highly imperfect. It’s a trade regime, and some countries have clearly done better than others,” Brookings Institution senior fellow Witney Schneidman, who was involved in passing and implementing AGOA, told GZERO. “But it needs to be strengthened, not killed.”
Which African nations are the main beneficiaries? South Africa has been by far the biggest beneficiary in terms of raw numbers, exporting nearly $56 billion in non-petroleum products under AGOA from 2001-2022 – specifically, car manufacturers based in South Africa have benefitted immensely. Renewing AGOA was a big reason why South African President Cyril Ramaphosa travelled to Washington in May. Nigeria, the next biggest partner, exported $11.2 billion under AGOA in that timeframe.
As a proportion of output, the country most reliant on AGOA is one that reportedly “nobody has ever heard of”: Lesotho. This landlocked country in southern Africa has built a significant textiles and garments sector on the back of AGOA, such that exports under the trade agreement account for 10% of its total GDP. An end to AGOA, on top of the 15% tariffs implemented at the start of August, would devastate the country’s two million people.
“Lesotho is the biggest beneficiary today, with the least alternative to fill the economic gap,” Ronald Osumba, a political strategist who once ran to be Kenya’s vice president, told GZERO.
For other countries, the importance of AGOA revealed itself when they were no longer included in the pact. Ethiopia was suspended from the pact in 2022 over “gross violations of internationally recognized human rights” during the Tigray War. Exports to the United States have plummeted since, several firms have left the country, and over ten thousand jobs are now gone. It was even worse for Madagascar when it was temporarily suspended from the pact in 2010: its GDP dropped 11%.
So what’s in AGOA for the US? Put simply, counterbalancing China and Russia.
“Africa is shifting east,” said Osumba. “China and Russia are having more influence on the continent today than any other time.” Renewing AGOA could help the US balance that influence.
Why does it matter? AGOA nations hold a sizable chunk of the world’s rare-earth minerals. Five of the top 15 sources of rare-earth minerals worldwide are in AGOA. In particular, the Democratic Republic of the Congo produces over 70% of the world’s cobalt, a mineral that is needed for the production of electric minerals. If AGOA isn’t extended, Osumba warned, Washington’s access to these critical minerals could be curtailed.
“There’s a concern there for the US in terms of access to natural resources.”
For Schneidman, it’s not just access to critical minerals: It’s also about leaving business opportunities on the table. He argued that, when it comes to using “trade over aid,” the Trump administration isn’t putting its money where its mouth is, vacating the area to its own detriment.
What’s stopping the US from renewing? US President Donald Trump’s general approach to trade and tariffs provides some hints. He is unafraid to use levies as a way to punish countries who he believes distort markets – the high levies he placed on countries including Brazil, China, India, and South Africa are a testament to this. AGOA grants members states tariff-free to US markets, but doesn’t give American firms anything in return, so it’s possible that Trump sees this as unfair. Plus, his “America First” foreign policy suggests he doesn’t share Clinton’s desire for democracy to spread worldwide.
But Frank Matsaert, an African trade & infrastructure expert at the Tony Blair Institute, believes the punt on AGOA renewal goes beyond this: he believes there’s an information gap.
“They’re not as aware of the potential effects of not renewing it,” Matsaert told GZERO. “If AGOA isn’t renewed, that could threaten $42 billion of bilateral trade.”
Is there any chance of a last minute change? Osumba isn’t hopeful.
“If it was to be done, this conversation should have already started a long time ago.”
Matsaert, meanwhile, retains some hope, providing that someone tells the US president the value of AGOA to his nation.
“This has had a big, positive impact on Africa. It could continue to have a positive impact, particularly at a time when the US is trying to diversify its supply chains,” said Matsaert. “The US consumer benefits, Africa benefits. Why not extend this?”
Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Transport Matteo Salvini meets with journalists following the CIPESS decision to approve the construction of the Messina Strait Bridge, Italy, on August 7, 2025.
Hard Numbers: Italy builds bridge over troubled waters, Ghanaian helicopter crash kills two ministers, Portuguese cop stuffs coke in animal skins, & More
13.5 billion: After decades of planning, the Italian government has approved a €13.5 billion ($15.6 billion) project to build the world’s longest suspension bridge, connecting Sicily to mainland Italy. The Ponte Messina will span one of the most seismically active areas in the Mediterranean, but designers say it will be able to withstand earthquakes. The target date for completion is 2033.
8: A helicopter crash in the central Ashanti region of Ghana has killed eight people including two government ministers: Edward Omane Boamah and Ibrahim Murtala Muhammed. The cause of the crash was unclear, but local farmers near the crash site reported foggy conditions as the helicopter flew overhead.
1.5: What’s that smell in Portugal? Oh it’s just some cocaine in rotting animal skins. A police captain and an accomplice are under arrest in Portugal on suspicion of importing 1.5 tons of the drug by hiding it in untanned hides imported from Latin America. The plot thickens: captain was himself involved in a sting operation against a drug ring two years ago.
1 of 3: South African prosecutors have withdrawn charges against one of the three men accused of murdering two Black women last year and feeding their bodies to pigs. The case has exacerbated racial tensions in the country, especially in rural areas. The trial will resume on Oct. 6.
74: Myanmar’s figurehead President Myint Swe died on Thursday at the age of 74. Swe had held the role ever since the military coup of 2021, repeatedly endorsing extensions of the country’s state of emergency to ensure the military junta could hold power.
Spiritual Counsel: Azucar para siempre! Nuyorican pianist and band leader Eddie Palmieri, a giant of Latin jazz and one of the pioneers of the genre that came to be called salsa, died Wednesday at the age of 88. Thank you for all of the music, all of the magic, and all of sugar, Eddie. Que en paz descanses.
Russian President Vladimir Putin shakes hands with US special envoy Steve Witkoff ahead of Ukraine war talks.
What We’re Watching: US envoy in Moscow, Tariffs rock South Africa’s government, Hezbollah dismisses disarmament
US envoy meets with Putin ahead of sanctions deadline
US special envoy Steve Witkoff met with Russian President Vladimir Putin at the Kremlin on Wednesday ahead of US President Donald Trump’s Friday deadline for the Kremlin to end the war or face new US sanctions. Neither side has revealed details about the talks yet, but Putin is reportedly unmoved by Trump’s threats, seeing his own war aims as being worth the price of further economic pain. The Witkoff-Putin talks came a day after Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky discussed Russia sanctions and increased defense cooperation.
US tariffs cause political trouble in Africa’s largest economy
South African President Cyril Ramaphosa is facing a backlash from his coalition partners over his failure to deftly handle tariff negotiations with Trump. In May, Ramaphosa made a trip to the White House where he sought to allay the US president’s trade concerns and push back against largely fabricated stories about a “genocide” of South African white farmers. None of it worked — Africa’s largest and most industrialized economy is under a 30% tariff, the highest rate on the continent.
Lebanon’s Hezbollah rejects calls to disarm
Hezbollah on Wednesday said it would be a “grave sin” for the Lebanese government to try to take away its weapons. The defiant statement comes after Lebanon's cabinet, acting under US pressure, ordered the army this week to draft a plan by year’s end to place Hezbollah’s weapons under state control. Iran-backed Hezbollah faces its weakest moment in years: Israeli strikes have decimated its weapons and leadership, and it no longer has an ally in Syria. Click here for more on what it would take to disarm the group, and here for the most famous recent example of a paramilitary disarmament that actually worked.
Graphic Truth: G7 vs BRICS, who has more economic clout?
The G7 countries – the US, UK, Canada, Germany, France, Italy and Japan – will convene this weekend in Kananaskis, a rural town in the mountains of Alberta, Canada. High on the meeting’s agenda are tariffs, artificial intelligence, and international security, with special focus on Russian sanctions and Israel’s recent attacks on Iran.
While the G7 was originally formed as an informal grouping of the world’s wealthiest democracies, the BRICS – composed of Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa – have sought to challenge their dominance of the global agenda.
Here’s a look at how the share of the global economy held by G7 and BRICS nations has evolved over time.
Eastern Cape EMS Rescue team searches for missing Jumba Senior secondary school students at Efata bridge next to Mthatha Dam in Mthatha, South Africa on June 10, 2025
HARD NUMBERS: Flooding in South Africa, one lucky Canadian & More
49: Flooding in South Africa’s Eastern Cape, the result of snow and heavy rain, has left at least 49 people dead, including several people on a school bus that was swept away by the waters.
15: South Korea has switched off the loudspeakers that blast propaganda across the border into North Korea – the noise can be heard 15 miles away at night. The move comes a week after Democratic Party leader Lee Jae-myung, who favors de-escalation with the North, won the presidential election.
3%: The United Kingdom’s National Health Service was the big winner of the Government’s spending review on Wednesday, as Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves increased the annual healthcare budget by 3% – amounting to another £29 billion ($39.2 billion) per year. Other departments, like the Foreign Office and the Environment Department, suffered cuts.
4: All of us dream of winning the lottery just once, but one man in Alberta, Canada, has now done it four times! David Serkin pocketed $730,000 from his latest jackpot – his third in the last year. He also happens to be a cancer survivor. He Serkin-ly has the luck of the draw!East and West German citizens celebrate as they climb the Berlin Wall at the Brandenburg Gate after the opening of the East German border was announced, on November 9, 1989.
You had to be there: How our memories shape our politics
– By Willis Sparks
Sometimes I find myself talking with one of my super-smart, well-informed younger acquaintances about some major event from “recent” history. I’ll tell them I remember watching nightly coverage of the fate of Americans held hostage in Tehran by furious Iranian students while I was in high school. Or, sitting on the floor of my grad school apartment, watching live TV coverage of Chinese tanks crushing Chinese protesters, and later of giddy Germans dancing and drinking atop the Berlin Wall. Then there’s the sunny fall morning when a plane struck a tower in lower Manhattan.
Then I remember that the person I’m speaking with wasn’t yet born when most (or any) of these things happened.
Everywhere in the world, succeeding generations have formative experiences that shape their understanding not only of the past but of the present and future. When we think about the politics of various countries today, this “horizon of memory” can help us consider something important about what’s happening and why.
50.5% of Americans are under 40. This means they have little memory of the Cold War, and didn’t grow up with the assumption that America has a “responsibility to lead” on the global stage. If you didn’t experience Cold War hopes and fears firsthand, you might find it odd that US presidents were once called “leader of the free world.”
43.3% of Germans are under 40. I haven’t visited Berlin since there were two of them. I went in the spring of 1990 because I wanted to put my hand on the Wall, to touch history, before it was gone. No German under the age of 40 will remember that surreal historical inflection point or the complex (sometimes contradictory) feelings triggered by Germany’s reunification.
45.9% of Russians and 42.4% of Ukrainians are under 40. No Russian under 40 will remember the Soviet superpower and the daily life that came with it. Even the Mikhail Gorbachev-period that I saw for myself on a visit to Moscow in April 1989 will be largely unfamiliar. Across the border, no Ukrainian under 40 will remember life in an empire ruled from the Kremlin. On both sides of the border, Vladimir Putin’s arguments about Russia’s historic claims to Kyiv land differently with people over 60 than those who are 30.
69.4% of South Africans are under 40. Everyone in that country knows the African National Congress was once the party of liberation. But unless you’re over 40, you likely won’t remember the astonishing day in February 1990 when a smiling Nelson Mandela, imprisoned for 27 years, walked out of his small cell in suit and tie. Nor will you recall the widely shared jolt of raw idealism when he became his country’s president. If you’re under 40, the ANC is the party of power.
64% of Brazilians are under 45. No Brazilian under 45 can remember living under the military dictatorship that was the “Fifth Brazilian Republic,” which lasted from 1964 to 1985. For them, debates over threats to democracy posed by former President Jair Bolsonaro might not resonate as they do for their parents.
78% of Iranians are under 50. No Iranian under 50 will remember life before the revolution that established the Islamic Republic (1979). They know the days of the Shah only through the happy or unhappy memories of their parents and the ideological education they continue to receive.
Without doubt, these events are crucial for all of us. No matter our age today, these are the movements of history on which we build the world around us. But I know my grandparents understood the poverty and fear of the 1930s differently than I ever can. My parents came of age in the peaceful but paranoid 1950s and entered adulthood with the Cuban Missile Crisis.
At 60, I’m blessed to have seen some dramatic historical turning points and to value the perspective they offer. But I’ve also learned that politics, anywhere and everywhere, is impossible to understand without reminders of our horizons of memory — and respect for the assumptions, beliefs, and aspirations of those who’ve engaged the wider world since.
What memories of historical events have shaped your worldview? Let us know here, and if you include your name and where you’re writing from we may include your response in an upcoming edition.South African President Cyril Ramaphosa gestures during the opening of the U.S.-sub-Saharan Africa trade forum to discuss the future of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), at the NASREC conference center in Johannesburg, South Africa, on November 3, 2023.
The real reason South Africa’s president is coming to Washington
If recent headlines are anything to go by, you’d think that South African President Cyril Ramaphosa’s visit to Washington, D.C. this week is an effort to rebut US President Donald Trump’s belief that white South Africans are suffering a genocide.
In reality, that’s way down the priority list.
“The most important thing [for Ramaphosa] is to show that South Africa is interested in a trade relationship with the United States,” said Johann Kotzé, CEO of the South African agricultural advocacy group AgriSA.
With unemployment soaring past 30% and the economy’s growth rate averaging less than 1% over the last decade, economic issues trump the political ones for Ramaphosa as he spends the week in the US capital.
Like so many leaders who visit the White House these days, the former anti-apartheid activist will hope to reach a trade truce with Trump after the White House came down hard on South African exports with his “reciprocal” tariffs, imposing a 30% duty on the country’s products. It’s not the only trade item on the agenda: The African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) is set to expire in September, and Ramaphosa will be desperate to renew it.
Strike a deal now, or else. Though Trump has temporarily cut the levy on South African products to 10% until July 8, Ramaphosa will seek a longer-lasting reprieve. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has said that individual country rates – the 30% tariff, in this case – represent a ceiling, but also reiterated last weekend that countries must strike a deal or else face higher levies again.
What about AGOA? And what is it? This trade deal between the United States and sub-Suharan states, originally signed in 2000, is set to expire in September. The treaty grants more than 30 countries in the region tariff-free access to US markets for many of their goods, and South Africa has been the principal beneficiary.
What does the United States get in return? If you ask Trump: Nothing! The pact doesn’t require African countries to lower their trade barriers. Former President Bill Clinton, who first signed the deal, saw it as a way to boost growth and spread democratic ideals in Africa.
The political barriers to a deal. Trump’s return to office has created further challenges for Pretoria, both economically and politically. There have been various diplomatic disputes over a controversial South African program to redistribute unused farmland, in many cases owned by white farmers, leading to the expulsion of the South African ambassador to the United States and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s decision to skip the G20 foreign ministers’ summit in Johannesburg in February.
The arrow in South Africa’s quiver. The Rainbow Nation still has something to offer Washington, Kotzé notes. It provides Americans with citrus fruits in the winter months, it’s a source of scarce minerals like platinum – which is vital for the auto industry – and 600 US firms operate in South Africa. What’s more, Pretoria holds significant geopolitical importance in Sub-Saharan Africa, acting as a peace broker or peace keeper in major conflicts in Ethiopia and the Democratic Republic of Congo.
“I don’t want to sound arrogant,” said Kotzé, “but South Africa is strategically well positioned in Africa.”
Tread carefully. When announcing his meeting with Trump, Ramaphosa called for a “reset” in the relationship, an acknowledgement of how the relationship has soured ever since their first beef over South African land use laws in 2018. Unless the South African can sidestep this debate, then it’s more likely that pigs will fly than he escapes Washington with a deal.