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Cyril Ramaphosa attends the oath of office ceremony for his second term as South African President at the Union Buildings in Pretoria, South Africa, 19 June 2024.
South Africa gets a new cabinet
President Cyril Ramaphosa unveiled South Africa’s new cabinet on Sunday, ushering in a new era of coalition governance for the Rainbow Nation. The move comes after the African National Congress lost its majority for the first time in 30 years in the May election, forcing Ramphosa’s party to enter a coalition government with its historic rival, the white-majority Democratic Alliance.
Ramaphosa announced that 32 positions were awarded across seven parties. The ANC retains the majority of seats, with 20, and has kept key ministries, including finance, foreign affairs (crucial in allowing continuity in their pro-Palestinian agenda and ICJ case), trade, and defense. The DA, after demanding 11 slots, was only assigned six, including key ministries like education and infrastructure, and DA leader John Steenhuisen was appointed agriculture minister. The remainder were divided among smaller parties.
Absent, but not silent. The uMkhonto weSizwe party, led by former President Jacob Zuma, came in third in the election but refused to join the coalition. The party has since found its voice as the outspoken leader of the Parliament’s opposition alliance.
Tensions remain high. The ANC has been systematically trying to dilute the DA’s influence by expanding the governing coalition to include 10 opposition parties, assigning them minimal portfolios. The difficult negotiations signaled converging economic policies, particularly on health care and Black economic empowerment, as well as deep distrust, with Ramaphosa accusing the DA of attempting to form a “parallel government.”
Will they play nice? As seen by the weeks of deadlocked cabinet negotiations, the parties still struggle to set aside decades of animosity, which could lead to instability, but the ANC and DA – at least for now – are committed to working together. We’ll be watching to see whether the coalition is stable enough to survive Zuma’s dedicated political instigation.
South African President Cyril Ramaphosa and Pemmy Majodina of the ANC attend a swearing-in ceremony into the National Assembly in Cape Town, South Africa June 14, 2024.
South Africa forms historic unity government, reelects Ramaphosa
South Africa officially has a unity government, marking a historic shift in the political makeup of the Rainbow Nation.
The African National Congress, which lost its 30-year outright majority in last month's election, reached an agreement Friday to form a coalition with the Democratic Alliance, its primary rival. The lawmakers also reelected South Africa’s President Cyril Ramaphosa.
“Today, South Africa is a better country than it was yesterday. For the first time since 1994, we've embarked on a peaceful and democratic transfer of power to a new government that will be different from the previous one,” said DA leader John Steenhuisen.
The coalition also includes the Inkatha Freedom Party, but former President Jacob Zuma’s uMkhonto weSizwe, or MK party, despite winning 15% of the vote, boycotted negotiations – as did the left-wing Economic Freedom Fighters.
Given the makeup and opposition to this fragile coalition, this is the dawn of an uncertain political era for the country. We’ll be keeping an eye on whether these unlikely legislative partners manage to hold the coalition together.
South African president Cyril Ramaphosa casts his vote during the South African elections in Soweto, South Africa May 29, 2024
Can the ANC make new friends and keep the old (president)?
For the first time in 30 years, South Africa’s African National Congress failed to win a majority in this month’s election, forcing it to turn to opposition parties in hopes of forming a coalition.
The most likely option now seems to be a multiparty coalition, similar to Nelson Mandela’s post-apartheid transitional government. This would allow the ANC to maintain its power by partnering with smaller, less established parties and, notably, the Economic Freedom Fighters, which underperformed in the election. According to Eurasia Group analyst Ziyanda Stuurman, this government is most favorable to the ANC as it would “keep Cyril Ramaphosa as president and provide at least some stability across the political landscape.”
A coalition with former president Jacob Zuma’s newly formed uMkhonto weSizwe party appears highly unlikely because its leader refuses to cooperate unless Ramaphosa steps down, which is non-negotiable for the ANC. Early predictions saw a likely coalition forming between the ANC and the Democratic Alliance, the leading opposition party thatwon almost 22% of the vote. But the two diverge on economic policies and affirmative action, and racial tensions between them are high.
South Africa is in uncharted waters, as the ANC is forced to make new friends for the first time. The uncertainty is making hard times in Africa’s biggest economy even worse, with the randweakening by another 1.3% on Wednesday. The ruling party is running out of time to form a coalition, as the Parliament must sit by June 16 to pick the next leader of this young democracy.
Johannesburg, South Africa - People are pictured voting at a polling station in Soweto in Johannesburg, South Africa, on May 29, 2024.
South Africa’s ruling party faces coalition conundrum
South Africa’s ruling African National Congress, led by President Cyril Ramaphosa, scored its worst election result in 30 years last week, forcing the party into tricky coalition talks. The ANC took just 40% of the vote, down from 58% in 2019 and below the party’s worst-case projections, as support waned due to high corruption, unemployment, and crime. Nelson Mandela’s former party now faces a choice between potential partners for building a coalition, all with a heavy price.
Leading contenders are the Democratic Alliance with 22% of the vote and the uMkhonto weSizwe party, aka MK, with 15%. However, ANC chairperson Gwede Mantashe indicatedan alliance with the DA is difficult due to policy differences, particularly on affirmative and universal healthcare. The DA wants toend the ANC’s racial quota system for employers and opposes the recently-passed universal healthcare act but says it is willing to work with the ANC.
The MK is also prepared to work with the ANC, but not if it’s led by Ramaphosa – a difficult starting position for talks. In addition, both the MK and a third possible partner, the Economic Freedom Fighters, campaigned on putting all land under state control and nationalizing mines and banks, issues that make foreign investors and many South Africans nervous.
The EFF is not a viable coalition party by itself since it obtained only 9% of the vote, which would fall just short of a majority for a coalition with the ANC. It is also considered “too erratic in its orientation, too in your face, and too unreasonable in its policy demands,”according to political analyst Susan Booysen.
Eurasia Group analyst Ziyanda Stuurman says she’s now watching provincial-level leaders, whose support or opposition to a coalition with the DA will prove determinative.
“Ramaphosa and his camp will need support from them for an ANC-DA governance model, or he could face a fast-moving rejection of his plans to form and lead a new government, and his allies may be swept out of power in a revolt against their leadership of the party,” she explained.
The new parliamentmust be sworn in within two weeks, and the president will then be chosen. Sources say that Ramaphosa is unlikely to resign despite the historically poor results, but we’ll be watching to see what deal he cuts to try and survive.South African president Cyril Ramaphosa casts his vote during the South African elections in Soweto, South Africa May 29, 2024
South Africa hangs in the balance: ANC leads but may lose majority
As the votes are being counted in South Africa’s most competitive election since the African National Congress came to power 30 years ago, the ANC is currently leading with 44% of the vote followed by the Democratic Alliance with 25%.
If the ANC fails to capture a clear majority but can scrape out at least 45% of the vote, it will likely be able to reinstate current President Cyril Ramaphosa and only need to make minimal policy compromises.
“If the ANC come in just under a majority, they are likely to approach smaller, ideologically aligned parties … to put together a stable coalition where they would be the dominant party,” says Eurasia Group’s senior Africa analyst, Ziyanda Stuurman.
Meanwhile, former President Jacob Zuma’s uMkhonto weSizwe Party — which has received just 14% of the vote — is calling for an opposition coalition to be formed to rival the ANC. But the second- and the third-largest opposition parties aren’t interested in joining the ranks.
It’s still too soon to call. “We are still early in the counting process, with only 34% of the country’s voting districts reporting results,” Stuurman cautioned. “The two largest provinces in the country have reported less than 30% of their results, and many of the larger rural regions in the country are only reporting about half of their results at this point.”
We’ll be watching through the weekend to see how the soetkoekie crumbles.
A man walks past election posters of the ruling African National Congress (ANC), as South Africa prepares for the May 29 general elections, in Soweto, South Africa, May 24, 2024.
Africa’s largest economy votes
The polls are open in South Africa, in the country’s most pivotal election of the post-Apartheid era. Dogged by corruption scandals, power grid failures, high unemployment, and poverty, the African National Congress, once headed by Nelson Mandela, is at risk of losing power for the first time since white-rule ended in 1994.
The left-ish ANC goes into the vote polling at about 43%. Its biggest rivals are the Democratic Alliance (polling at 19%), a largely white-led pro-business party with support among South Africa’s urban middle class; the newly formed uMkhonto we Sizwe party of former ANC leader Jacob Zuma, who is banned from running himself due to graft convictions (14%); and the quasi-Marxist Economic Freedom Fighters (11%).
Could the ANC really lose the throne? Not so fast, says Ziyanda Stuurman, Eurasia Group’s top South Africa expert. She thinks strong rural support will help it squeak over the 50% line. If the ANC gets between 45% and 50%, it will team up with smaller, ideologically aligned parties. A result below 45% would likely force an uncomfortable alliance with either the DA or the EFF. Polls close Wednesday night, and final results will be published on Saturday.
Supporters of political party Rise Mzansi attend a protest march calling for the delivery of basic services in the Western Cape ahead of the general election in Cape Town, South Africa May 22, 2024.
Viewpoint: As South Africa's democracy turns 30, Mandela's ANC faces toughest election yet
South African voters will decide on May 29 whether to give another five-year mandate to the African National Congress, the political party that helped bring about the country’s transition to multi-racial democracy in 1994 and has ruled ever since.
Amid intense scrutiny of the ANC’s 30-year record – especially its failure to address economic problems and an electricity supply crisis – the polls show the party at risk of losing its parliamentary majority. Contributing to its woes is the reemergence of Jacob Zuma, a controversial former president and party leader, who is supporting a new political formation threatening to steal votes from the ANC.
We sat down with Eurasia Group’s Ziyanda Stuurman to learn more about the upcoming vote.
How has the 30th anniversary of the transition to democracy played in the election campaign?
A number of opposition parties have harped on the idea that the ANC hasn’t delivered what it promised at the advent of democracy and that South Africa needs new leaders. They say that if the country is going to change course on unemployment, inequality, and poverty, there is no better time to do it than this year. The ANC, on the other hand, is positioning itself as the defender of democracy and calling on voters to support the people who fought against apartheid and preserve the legacy of Nelson Mandela, the country’s first democratically elected president.
Does the ANC have concrete achievements it can point to from its 30 years in power?
Yes, the party has been touting progress on a range of development indicators. These include increasing the proportion of households with access to electricity from 57% to 89% between 1996 and 2021, increasing the share of households with access to piped water from 44% to 60% between 1996 and 2022, and building 3.4 million low-cost houses between 1996 and 2022.
What do voters think? Why has support for the ANC declined?
One long-running concern is unemployment. The unemployment rate is over 30%, with youth unemployment closer to 60%. The country has struggled to generate jobs for decades, but the problem intensified when Zuma was president from 2009 to 2018, investment slumped, and the economy stagnated.
A more pressing concern at the moment is the crisis of electricity supply caused by corruption and mismanagement at power utility Eskom. The situation has improved somewhat this year, but in 2023 the country suffered frequent blackouts. When the government literally can’t keep the lights on, that’s the type of thing that really sours voter sentiment. Finally, many people have been disappointed with President Cyril Ramaphosa, who assumed office after Zuma resigned following years of allegations of sweeping corruption in his government.
Why this disappointment?
I think there were a lot of unrealistic expectations that Ramaphosa, a successful businessman, would quickly turn the country around. He’s just one man and the ANC is a very big organization. Moreover, he has had to deal with the fallout from crises such as COVID-19 and the war in Ukraine. He has made progress rebuilding institutions that suffered during Zuma’s tenure such as the tax authority and the judiciary. But I think that many people see these issues as far removed from their lives and things like the price of bread and fuel and so on.
Ramaphosa himself has been tainted by allegations of wrongdoing, right? What is the status of the investigation into the alleged fraudulent activities at his Phala Phala farm?
It’s turned out to be mostly a damp squib. Right now there are four suspects on trial for breaking and entering at the farm, but very little has been tied to the president (he was alleged to have covered up the theft of a large sum of money to avoid scrutiny). When the story broke in 2022, his approval ratings suffered, but they have since recovered. I highly doubt that the average person is thinking of Phala Phala as an issue. Ramaphosa is a wealthy man, so people just think, “ok, a rich man got robbed. So what?”
Meanwhile, Zuma has made a comeback. What has been the impact of his new party? And given his legal troubles, can he serve in parliament?
The Constitutional Court has just put the final nail in the coffin for Zuma’s ambitions to get reelected to parliament and becoming president again. It ruled that his contempt of court conviction for refusing to testify in a public inquiry on corruption made him ineligible to stand for parliament. Moreover, the impact of his new party, uMkhonto weSizwe, and its ability to steal votes from the ANC has been greatly exaggerated by the media. Some polls have given it a 14% share of the national vote, which would make it the third-largest party in the country. But there are substantial problems with South African polling, and I don’t think it will obtain anywhere near that share of the vote.
If the ANC does lose its parliamentary majority, what would that mean for the country?
I think the ANC is likely to retain its majority, and if falls short, it’s not likely to be by much. That means the ANC could form a coalition government with one or more small, ideologically aligned parties, which would not have much impact on government policies. In fact, Ramaphosa could probably move faster on some of his priorities in a second term. In a less likely scenario of a much worse showing for the ANC, say a vote share of about 40%, then it would be forced to partner with one of the bigger opposition parties, the Democratic Alliance or the Economic Freedom Fighters. This would force bigger policy changes (the DA is more fiscally conservative, while the EFF is more left-wing) and result in an unstable coalition. I would expect such a government to collapse before the end of its term in 2029, requiring snap elections.
Edited by Eurasia Group Senior Editor Jonathan House.
Supporters of former South African President Jacob Zuma protest outside the Constitutional Court which ruled that Zuma is not eligible to stand for office in the National Assembly, in Johannesburg, South Africa May 20, 2024.
Zuma's disqualification shakes up South Africa's election
Nine days before South Africa’s general election, former President Jacob Zuma was disqualified from running for a parliamentary seat because the constitution prohibits candidates who have served more than 12 months in prison.
Background: Zuma led the ruling African National Congress from 2009 to 2018, before resigning in disgrace amid allegations that his administration was infiltrated by corporate interests. After he was released from his 15-month prison sentence last year, he launched his own uMkhonto WeSizwe party, or MK, which has surprised analysts by polling above 10%. Its gains have mostly been at the expense of the ANC, which is now polling around 46%.
Election impact: Zuma’s party has stood behind its leader, who will still wield influence from the sidelines. Zuma is using the verdict to position himself as a victim of the out-of-touch ANC, a spin that could take votes away from them and boost MK on May 29.
In South Africa, the majority party chooses the president. The ANC is predicted to lose its majority for the first time since apartheid ended 30 years ago. If it gets less than 50% of the vote, it will need to form a coalition – likely with the third-largest party, the Economic Freedom Fighters – to reelect Cyril Ramaphosa for a second and final term.