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Canada's Minister of Foreign Affairs Melanie Joly speaks during a reception honouring the visit of the Chairperson of the African Union Commission Moussa Faki Mahamat in Gatineau, Quebec, Canada October 26, 2022.
Canadian foreign minister heads to China amid tough tariff talk
Canadian Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly made a surprise visit to Beijing on Thursday as Canada and the United States are both considering new barriers to trade with China.
Canada-China relations have gone from bad to terrible since 2018, when Canada held Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou for extradition to the United States and the Chinese government responded by detaining Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor. Wanzhou and the two Michaels were released in 2021, but a Canadian public inquiry into foreign interference continued to put a strain on relations. Then came the suspected Chinese spy balloon surveillance in US and Canadian airspace in 2023.
Still, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said China was open to improving relations earlier this year.
But this week, Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland said she would be talking to Canadian business and labor groups about erecting new trade barriers with China. Washington sent a similar message as Joe Biden told allies on Wednesday that he is considering taking fresh action to block Chinese chip manufacturing. Meanwhile, in Milwaukee this week, Donald Trump’s running mate, JD Vance, said China is the “biggest threat” facing the United States.
The Chinese likely want to talk to Joly about avoiding new trade barriers with Canada, since China’s economy is struggling and any new limits on exports could further slow growth. Joly will no doubt listen politely, but Canada is unlikely to jeopardize its crucial trade relationship with the United States by making any side deals with Beijing.
FILE PHOTO: Semiconductor chips are seen on a printed circuit board in this illustration picture taken February 17, 2023.
The US-China chip stranglehold
The Biden administration has already imposed severe restrictions on semiconductor companies selling to China through export controls. But now it’s considering additional steps to maintain an edge over its rival in the East. The new measures would reportedly restrict China’s ability to access a specific chip architecture known as gate all around, or GAA. GAA is a powerful type of transistor that large chipmakers — including AMD, Intel, Nvidia, and Samsung — are planning to mass produce in the next year.
The US Commerce Department, which oversees export controls, hasn’t confirmed whether or when the rules will be finalized. But the administration has been dead set on limiting China’s access to chips they can use to train and run AI applications — an attitude that’ll only intensify as AI technology becomes more mature and more useful.
With a weak economy making retaliatory tariffs unlikely, Beijing is left with few responses other than subsidizing its domestic industry, which still lags behind the US.
EDITORS' NOTE: Reuters and other foreign media are subject to Iranian restrictions on leaving the office to report, film or take pictures in Tehran. A security personnel looks on at oil docks at the port of Kalantari in the city of Chabahar, 300km (186 miles) east of the Strait of Hormuz January 17, 2012.
India risks US sanctions over a new Iran port
On Monday, India signed a10-year-long agreement to operate and develop Iran’s Chabahar port. The move is meant to expand India’s agriculture exports to Afghanistan and Central Asia while bypassing existing routes through neighboring Pakistan, New Delhi’s main rival.
Flexing muscles. New Delhi, on track toovertake Japan as the world’s fourth-largest economy by 2025, has only managed the port under short-term contracts since 2018 and has already transported 2.5 million tonnes of wheat and 2,000 tonnes of pulses to Afghanistan. This new longer-term deal with a contractual value of roughly $370 million will reduce transit times between India, Iran, and Afghanistan.
But India is sailing at a risk. Just hours after the contract was signed, the US warned ofpotential sanctions on any country doing business deals with Tehran. Over the last three years, Washington has imposed over 600 sanctions on Iran-related entities.
India has not formally responded to Washington's warning yet, setting up a potential diplomatic clash that may test the limits of India’s willingness to defy its Western allies in order to pursue its own strategic interests in the region.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk steps out of a vehicle, during his visit to China, in Beijing, China, April 28, 2024, in this screen grab taken from a video.
Beijing gives Blinken cold shoulder, extends warm welcome to Musk
Last week, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken made a high-profile visit to China, marked by terse talk and some tough symbols. Two days ahead of Blinken’s arrival, China launched a submarine-based ballistic missile test, and as he departed, the Chinese air force flew jets over the Taiwan Strait. Beijing was not amused by the US Congress passing a supplemental spending bill last week, including billions in military assistance to Taipei.
In contrast, Tesla founder Elon Musk's surprise visit starting Sunday was all smiles. Musk posted to X about the honor of meeting Chinese Premier Li Qiang, who heralded Tesla as a pillar of US-China economic cooperation. Tesla has sold more than 1.7 million cars in China since it entered the market a decade ago, and its largest factory is in Shanghai.
Musk wants to roll out Tesla’s Full Self-Driving technology in China before Chinese automakers deploy similar capabilities. Musk is also seeking approval to transfer data collected in China to the US to train algorithms for FSD tech. Market watchers called the unexpected visit "a major moment for Tesla" as the company struggles with layoffs and slumping sales.U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken arrives at the Beijing Capital International Airport, in Beijing, China, April 25, 2024.
Blinken meets with Xi, but no breakthroughs
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken brought up concerns over China's support for Russia with his counterpart Wang Yi in Beijing on Friday, before meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping. Blinken’s visit is largely meant to advance the mutual goal of stabilizing the relationship, and Xi said he wants to be "partners, not rivals" with the United States.
As Blinken landed in Shanghai for the first leg of his trip earlier this week, the Biden administration signed bills providing Taiwan with $8 billion in military aid and starting a process that could result in a ban of the popular video app TikTok in the US unless its Chinese owner, ByteDance, sells. The day before, the State Department released its annual human rights review, which criticized Chinese treatment of Muslim minorities.
Once he landed, Blinken pressed Shanghai Communist Party Secretary Chen Jining on treating US companies fairly. Meanwhile, he told students at NYU’s Shanghai campus that the cultural ties being built between both countries are of utmost importance.
Despite the many possible pratfalls during the first leg, China’s response has been fairly milquetoast. Spokesperson Wang Wenbin said, “We hope that the US side will respect the principle of fair competition, abide by WTO rules, and work with China to create favorable [trade] conditions.” Hardly “Wolf Warrior” stuff, and Wang said Friday that ties are “beginning to stabilize.”
The casket of late former Canadian Prime Minister Brian Mulroney is carried by pallbearers following his state funeral at the Notre-Dame Basilica of Montreal, Quebec, Canada March 23, 2024.
Trade champion laid to rest
The Canada-US trade relationship lost its greatest champion when former Canadian Prime Minister Brian Mulroney was laid to rest in Montreal on Saturday.
Mulroney was the architect of the original Canada-US free trade deal, which he and President Ronald Reagan signed in 1988. He negotiated the NAFTA agreement, which extended the arrangement to Mexico, although it was signed by Prime Minister Jean Chretien and President Bill Clinton in 1994. Then, after the 2016 election of President Donald Trump, who threatened to tear up the deal, Mulroney played a key behind-the-scenes role in helping keep the negotiations between Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Trump’s team from going off the rails.
In an interview last year for a forthcoming book, Mulroney spoke about the importance of the efforts he and Trudeau made to save the trade relationship: “Had it collapsed, the economic backbone of Canada would have collapsed, because today, NAFTA is a grouping of three countries, and 500 million people, which represents seven percent of the world's population, and it generates 28 percent of the entire wealth of the world every single year, and the millions of jobs that goes with it.”
The relationship will be in jeopardy again if Trump wins in November. Trump has promised to impose a 10% tariff on all imports to the US.
To prepare for that eventuality, dozens of Canadian diplomats descended on Washington this week to meet with American lawmakers. Nobody knows what a re-elected Trump would do about trade with Canada, and he has other things on his mind.
Should Canada give three F’s?
You’re leaving your role as president of the Canadian Chamber of Commerce after 17 years, which has been a transformative time. What is the biggest economic challenge facing Canada's trade with the US?
Perrin: The politics of trade has undergone a sea change in the US under the last two presidents. Previous presidents, from Ronald Reagan on, viewed America's interactions in the global economy as an opportunity to foster American prosperity, and they saw an integrated North American economy as a source of strength. More recently, however, US politicians have started to turn inward, increasingly viewing their country as a victim, and not as the primary beneficiary of international engagement. This change has led them to increasingly align themselves with domestic protectionists who want to build economic walls along the US border.
Unfortunately, this turn inward has coincided with a complacency here in Canada about our most important bilateral relationship. Even the best of friends can't afford to take each other for granted, or they will soon drift apart.
As Canada's relationship with the US has moved from being strategic to being transactional, American leaders are increasingly looking at each issue as a standalone, and they are making their decisions, not on what is in America's long-term best interest, but on where they can find immediate political advantage at home.
We need to rebuild that strategic relationship. It's vital for Canada to be seen as bringing solutions to the major problems confronting the United States, as opposed to simply pleading to be exempted from the latest punitive measure. We need to demonstrate, both in Washington and far away from it that Canada should be treated not as a problem, but as a partner.
Perrin Beatty, outgoing president and CEO of Canadian Chamber of Commerce. REUTERS/Rebecca Cook
You recently said: “Canada is increasingly being viewed by our partners in the region as a well-meaning but unserious player on the international stage." In what ways has Canada become an "unserious player," and what needs to happen to change that reputation?
Perrin: Unfortunately, we have come to see ourselves as a moral superpower whose job is to tell everyone else what they are doing wrong. And we expect them to be grateful to us for it. Too often, we are driven more by a desire for good feelings than for good results. In contrast, other countries are both faster-moving and more engaged in the issues their interlocutors consider most important. The consequence is that, where the US and other countries used to ask, “How do we get the Canadians involved?” their question is now, “Should we inform the Canadians?” The fact that we learned about the AUKUS agreement at the same time as everyone else is just one example.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine two years ago should have been seen by Canada as world-changing, and our response should have been both meaningful and swift, with us marshaling what we have to offer in defense of the democracies. For example, Canada has an abundance of the “three F’s” – food, fuel, and fertilizer – and critical minerals that are essential to global stability. What we lack is the infrastructure, the vision, and the will to bring them to global markets to give countries an alternative to sending dollars to despots. This could be Canada's moment, but only if we are prepared to seize it.
You were a former defense minister under Mr. Mulroney, so you know about dealing with a dangerous world. But now, everyone is looking at the impact of the US election. Are we headed into a period of instability, conflict, and the dismantling of both trade and defense alliances that have been built since World War II?
Perrin: The problems we face, from global poverty to pandemics to wars to global climate change, all require an effective, coordinated international response. Instead of that, we are witnessing countries turning inward on themselves, as well as the increasing ineffectiveness of global institutions like the UN, the World Trade Organization, and the WHO in actually resolving issues that go to our very survival.
When I was privileged to be in government, there was a sense that, when the leaders of the G7 – leaders who included Reagan, Thatcher, Mitterrand, Kohl, and Mulroney – came together, problems would be resolved. Today, when international meetings take place, you get the feeling that our problems are bigger than our leaders. In fairness, the world is a much more complex and dangerous place today, but that's precisely why we need leaders whose vision, determination, and morality are up to the challenge. As your question suggests, we're at a crossroads that will determine whether we will be able to maintain the institutions and strategies that have guaranteed democracy, peace, and prosperity since the Second World War. The stakes have never been higher.
AI is both a transformative opportunity and a destabilizing threat. What is your view of how will impact business?
Perrin: Like businesses the world over, Canadian businesses will be transformed either for the better or for the worse by AI. AI, like the nuclear genie, can't be put back into the bottle. Our challenge is first to understand it, then to decide how to mitigate its potential bad effects, and then to determine how to unleash its positive aspects. In this instance, the technology is developing at a pace that far outstrips our capacity to understand it and manage it well. However, calls to initiate some sort of a standstill until we have thought these things through are naïve and unworkable; all that would happen is that the unscrupulous players would widen their lead.
The challenge for Canadian policymakers is how to successfully work with others on coordinated policies that limit the dangerous aspects of AI without denying its benefits to our industry and our society.
If there is a second Trump Presidency, what should Canada expect from the 2026 review/renegotiation of USMCA trade deal?
Perrin: Many Canadians expected that when Joe Biden became president, he would reverse the Trump protectionist measures. However, that assumption overlooked the fact that, in the past, Republicans were more in favor of free trade, while Democrats were more protectionist. In fact, the Biden administration has actually deepened some of the protectionist policies initiated by Donald Trump.
The danger is that the election will be a contest between two candidates trying to demonstrate who is more protectionist. Canadians must respect the right of US voters to determine their own government, just as we would insist on the Americans respecting our rights, but we need to demonstrate that it is in Americans' self-interest to foster a stronger relationship with their closest neighbor and best friend. And we must do that, not by special pleading, but by coming up with solutions to problems.
Finally, what is the best-case scenario for the US-Canada relationship in terms of economic prosperity and security? Is there a way to slalom through the protectionism, AI disruptions, political polarization, climate challenges, and conflicts and see a time of increased joint prosperity?
Perrin: The best-case scenario is that we restore a strategic partnership with the world's greatest superpower. We've let the relationship slide for too long, and it won't be easy to regain that position. But I believe it can be done if we muster the vision and the will to make it happen.
Last thing: You worked for Brian Mulroney, who recently passed away. He was the architect of the North American Free Trade Agreement and worked closely with Ronald Reagan. What lesson can today’s leaders learn from that time?
Perrin: As Canadians commemorate Brian Mulroney, our leaders should ask what they can learn from Canada's last great transformative prime minister. Brian Mulroney understood that governments don't create jobs and prosperity, businesses do. He also knew that the best way to solve problems was not to shut people out but to bring them in.
It's impossible to say exactly what policies a different government would follow, but what we do know is that our economy and our country are under severe strain today. The leader history will remember best will be the one who brings people together again in what remains the most fortunate country on the face of the globe.
Graphic Truth: US trade deficit with Canada & Mexico
The US trade deficit in goods with Canada and Mexico reached an all-time high in 2023 of over $220 billion — and despite what you may hear from certain former US presidents, that’s a good thing. Yes, more money than ever is leaving the US and going to the neighbors. And in exchange, American consumers get more stuff from their neighbors than ever before and for better prices than they can find at home.