Trending Now
We have updated our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use for Eurasia Group and its affiliates, including GZERO Media, to clarify the types of data we collect, how we collect it, how we use data and with whom we share data. By using our website you consent to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy, including the transfer of your personal data to the United States from your country of residence, and our use of cookies described in our Cookie Policy.
{{ subpage.title }}
Canada’s Prime Minister Mark Carney speaks with members of the media as he walks into his office after the Liberal Party staged a major political comeback to retain power in parliamentary elections, in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada, on April 29, 2025.
Carney wins power, but showdown with Trump looms over Canada’s future
Prime Minister Mark Carney may have won the battle for power in Canada, but his country’s war of words with US President Donald Trump is only just beginning. And before that all begins, the Liberal leader must form a government.
Carney has options. The Liberal Party is projected to fall just three seats shy of a majority. Even so, the former Bank of England and Bank of Canada governor is unlikely to seek a confidence-and-supply agreement, according to Eurasia Group senior analyst Graeme Thompson, even though Bloc Quebecois offered him a “truce.”
“If the Liberals fall short of a bare majority, they will be in a strong enough position to govern with a minority government, seeking ad hoc support from the NDP and Bloc Quebecois on specific issues,” Thompson said.
The elephant in the room. Once Carney forms a government, his principal test will be dealing with Trump. The aim for Carney, per Thompson, will be “to secure tariff-free (or at least low-tariff) access to the US market,” and the White House’s more dovish tone on trade over the last week suggests there might be an opening. The pair agreed to meet in person some time in the near future, according to a readout from the prime minister’s office, which comes after Carney insisted on Monday that he would only visit Washington to discuss trade agreements when there was a “serious discussion to be had.”
Ian Bremmer examines the future of the US-Canada relationship in his latest World in:60 here.
What’s next for Pierre Poilievre? The Conservative leader lost his own seat – a verdict that would consign you to reality television if you were in the United Kingdom. But he also led the Tories to their largest popular vote share since 1988, and expanded the right-wing coalition, so his political future may not be dead yet.
“He’s humbled,” Thompson said, “but likely to stay on to fight another day.”
President Donald Trump gives a thumbs up as he returns to the White House on Feb. 22, 2025.
Opinion: 100 days of promises kept
World leaders and the global audience are trying to adjust to so much change in such little time, but the dominant thread has been the surprises hidden in plain sight throughout these last three months.
Border security & budget cuts take center stage
At home, the administration immediately got to work on commitments made on the campaign trail and in the latest Republican platform. Atop the list was a mandate to reverse “open-border” immigration policies and secure the US frontier. In its “Protecting the American People against Invasion” presidential action, one of a flurry of Day 1 executive orders, Trump established the groundwork for a multipronged policy, which has included detentions and mass deportations, designating MS-13 a foreign terrorist organization, and court battles over the protected status of Venezuelan migrants as well as birthright citizenship. The approach has had a chilling effect on immigration, with southwest land-border encounters down more than 90% year-on-year, according to the latest March data.
Trump’s other major domestic campaign priorities, deregulation and reigning in federal spending, have spawned a similar pace of action. Elon Musk’s work overseeing the Department of Government Efficiency has come to symbolize how the contours and shape of the US federal government have been redrawn. Last week’s announcement by Secretary of State Marco Rubio that his department will also be overhauled – reducing jobs, shuttering “redundant” offices, and reprioritizing departmental focus – is just the latest example of a campaign throughline to reevaluate federal government spending and structure. The news comes as local governments and populations are still adapting to the shuttering of USAID, a key lever of US soft power abroad.
On domestic policy, there have been few surprises. Trump’s 2024 campaign commitments have become Trump 2.0 administration policy. Despite efforts last fall by the Trump campaign to distance itself from Project 2025, co-author Russell Vought’s selection to lead the Office of Management and Budget was a clear and present signal to all market players of how expansively the plans currently unfolding had been laid.
Remaking America’s role abroad
Turning to the global stage, Trump 2.0’s America First foreign policy has not been the “Make America Great Again” isolationism of Trump 1.0. Instead, from Canada to Mexico, Greenland, and Yemen, no stone is being left unconsidered or unturned. Global expectations set by the first Trump administration that foreign policy would only play second fiddle to a brighter spotlight on the domestic agenda are being updated. Trump has begun to remake America’s role in the world in his image, sowing a geopolitical unsettling but being transparent about the administration’s intentions – as peacemakers and trade disrupters.
As a would-be peacemaker, the president had hoped to bring an efficient closure to the war in Ukraine, an ambition welcomed by those sitting in European capitals. He committed initially to ending the conflict on his first day in office but later extended the timeline to within six months. Last week’s decision by lead attaché Steve Witkoff and Rubio to pull out of peace talks in London is telling. With remaining wide gulfs between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Trump (even after their 15-minute tête-à-tête at the pope’s funeral this weekend), and likewise, between Zelensky and Russian President Vladimir Putin, the US administration is quickly discovering that intractability is in the details. European leadership has yet to identify an offramp to the conflict that does not include the US administration’s stewardship.
As a quick resolution does not appear imminent, the Trump administration may soon look to quietly back out and close the door on its peace negotiation efforts. Rubio acknowledged as much over the weekend, saying that “we cannot continue … to dedicate time and resources to this effort if it is not going to come to fruition.”
Any reduction in attention on Ukraine and Europe would almost certainly coincide with a ramp-up toward the Middle East, where the administration has historically had more success (e.g. Trump 1.0’s Abraham Accords).
While being a peacemaker remains a work in progress, the president has exceeded expectations as a trade disrupter over the first 100 days. Despite Trump’s constant refrain of tariffs and a four-decade commitment to seeing the US not get “ripped off,” the markets and global leadership still held their breath for a targeted, gradual installation of levies. Instead, April 2, aka “Liberation Day,” introduced the world to one man’s concept of “kind reciprocity,” a benign phrase that has the potential to reshape the global trading system, financial markets, and international relationships.
The accompanying executive order provided for a 10% flat tariff on all trading partners, which went into effect earlier this month. The additional “discounted” reciprocal tariff rates to be imposed on certain trading partners were postponed for 90 days until July 9 for all except the People’s Republic of China. In the intervening weeks, markets have wobbled but are holding onto hope.
The dominant question now is what lies ahead for the next 100 days and beyond. As the “Liberation Day” announcements and maneuvers clarify, there will be more volatility to come. Even with the policy priorities and details beginning to be filled in, this is not the finishing line; it is merely the starting gun. Trump has 90% of the race still to run.
Still, the Trump administration will be pleased with the scorecard of promises kept thus far. It has planted seeds across the domestic and global landscape and will now step back to watch the garden grow. On trade, the ambition is 90 deals in 90 days. And with it, Trump assumes his most preferred role: dealmaker-in-chief.
Lindsay Newman is a geopolitical risk expert and columnist for GZERO.
Workers' Party (WP) supporters wave party flags as they cheer their candidates at the nomination center ahead of the general election in Singapore, on April 23, 2025.
Singapore’s opposition hopes to make major gains as election campaign begins
Singapore kicked off a lightning-fast, nine-day campaign on Wednesday for its May 3 election. The vote promises to be the most contested since independence, as the ruling People’s Action Party sweats a strong challenge amid weak economic forecasts.
Elections in Singapore are usually dull affairs: The PAP has utterly dominated all contests since 1965, with members of the founding Lee family serving as PM for 45 years combined, and as recently as 2024. During one of its worst performances in 2020, the PAP won 89% of seats in parliament – even though it won just 61% of the vote. Such disproportionate electoral results, along with systematic repression of opposition figures, have led to accusations that Singapore is ade facto one-party state.
What’s different this time? First off, the Lion City is facing grim economic prospects. Growth projections have been revised to 0-2% for the year, down from 1-3%, and the heavily trade-dependent economy is reeling from global 10% tariffs imposed by the United States.
Secondly, the PAP’s long time in office contrasts sharply with a slate of newer candidates from the opposition Worker’s Party. PM Lawrence Wong has introduced 32 new candidates in an effort to shed the old guard image, casting off many long-serving stalwarts. A YouGov survey showed that only about 40% of voters would support the PAP if the election were held today, while a 43% plurality either don’t know or wouldn’t say who they will support.
The WP is still fighting uphill. Its leaders hope to take a third of seats in parliament, far from a majority – but perhaps enough to change the political dynamic permanently.Containers on a cargo ship are seen at an industrial port in Tokyo, Japan April 3, 2025.
Beijing tries to woo an uninterested Tokyo over joint tariff fight
Chinese Premiere Li Qiang sent Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba a letter asking that they “fight protectionism together,” according to local reports Tuesday, as both countries face potentially disastrous US tariffs.
“I don’t know what the equivalent in Japanese for ‘chutzpah’* is, but I think the Japanese bureaucrats will snicker a bit to themselves,” says David Boling, Eurasia Group’s director for Japan and Asian trade. “China has a tendency when relations with the US are not going well to suddenly become much more positive in their approach to Japan.”
China is Japan’s largest trading partner but a highly distrusted neighbor from a national security perspective. Japan launched trade talks with the United States last week, and Boling says Tokyo is determined to strike a deal.
“The United States is just too important as an ally and trading partner, and even if talks break down, they’re not going to look to China first,” he says.
What’s more, Ishiba faces a crucial election in the upper house of the Diet, Japan's legislature, in July, right around when the US tariff pause is due to expire. With his political life on the line, we’re watching for an agreement in principle to be sealed with the US soon.
*Chutzpah is 厚かましさ (astukamashi-sa), if you were curious.
Two DHL delivery vans deliver parcels in Maximilianstrasse in Munich, Germany, on Feb. 20, 2025.
Companies respond to Trump’s trade crackdown
The ripple effects of US President Donald Trump’s tariff policies continue to impact global supply chains. On Saturday, transport company DHL announced it would suspend international shipments over $800 to American consumers, citing that new tariff rules had overwhelmed its processing systems. Automaker Ford said it was “adjusting” its exports of vehicles like the F-150 Raptor, Lincoln Navigator, and Mustang to China, due to the impact of tariffs. And China’s Xiamen Airline reportedly returned a Boeing 737 MAX, freshly painted in company colors – the latest casualty of that country’s ongoing trade war with the US.
Other countries are opting for negotiation over retaliation. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni visited Washington on Friday hoping to talk EU trade with Trump, but found the US President was “in no rush” to strike a deal. This week, South Korea will enter into tariff talks, hoping to avert the 25% reciprocal tariff Trump announced, and then paused, in early April.
What else is expected in the next few days? On Tuesday, the IMF is set to release global growth forecasts – and is expected to both lower expectations for growth in tariffed countries while raising expectations for inflation. A day later, coordinated purchasing manager indexes from most major economies will be released, offering a first look at the early impacts of tariffs and trade threats on economic activity.Economic Revitalization Minister Ryosei Akazawa heads to the United States for negotiations from Tokyo's Haneda airport on April 16, 2025.
Two “Guinea pigs” come to Washington
As much of the world scrambles to figure out how to avoid Donald Trump’s expansive “reciprocal tariffs,” two big players are in Washington this week to try their hands at negotiating with the self-styled Deal Artist™ himself.
First, Japan. For decades, the world’s fourth-largest economy has run a big trade surplus with the US while also benefiting from American military protection. Trump has been upset about this arrangement for 40 years, and Japan’s import restrictions on US cars and agricultural goods are a particular focus for him. His 25% global tariff on car and steel imports will hit Japan hard, as will the overall 24% “reciprocal” levy against Tokyo that is slated to go into effect in July.
But Japan is also a top foreign investor in the US economy and a key East Asian ally amid Trump’s deepening confrontation with China. Japan’s Economic Revitalization Minister Ryosei Akazawa is looking to reduce tariffs to zero. Observers have already called his case a “guinea pig” for how countries with long-standing ties to the US can work deals with the America First president.
Late on Wednesday, Trump hailed “big progress” in the talks, which he attended personally, but neither he nor Akazawa gave further details. The two sides will meet again later this month.
Second, Italy. Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, who visits the White House on Thursday, is a pragmatic right-winger whom the US president has described as a “fantastic woman.” She shares Trump’s hardline views on immigration and social issues, and even defended US Vice President JD Vance’s recent blistering attack on the EU’s approach to free speech.
But Meloni also leads a highly export-dependent economy that runs a $40bn surplus with the US. Trump’s “reciprocal tariffs” of 20% on the EU could therefore be a 🤌catastrophe🤌 for Italy.
The EU is warily watching. Can Meloni parlay her good graces with Trump into a deal that avoids a wider transatlantic trade war? Or will her solo visit enable the US president to weaken the overall unity of the bloc?
UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer meets with US President Donald Trump alongside US Vice President JD Vance and UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy in the Oval Office at the White House on February 27, 2025, in Washington, D.C., USA.
Vance ignites hope of much-coveted US-UK trade deal
The US trade deal that London has been chasing for years is closer to reality now, after US Vice President JD Vance told UnHerd on Monday that there is a “good chance” that an agreement is possible.
UK Business and Trade Minister Sarah Jones alsosaid the negotiations are in a “good position,” but refused to divulge any timeline.
One major reported focus of the talks is the UK cutting its “tech tax” on the revenues of major digital firms in return for lower tariffs, although the sides are reportedly negotiating terms that go beyond this.
Back to being “special.” The United Kingdom escaped Trump’s “liberation day” with only the Administration’s general 10% tariff, albeit only because the UK doesn’t have a trade surplus with the US. A free trade deal would leave few or no tariffs on its US-bound exports.
A win for a Remainer and the Brexiteers. A trade pact would mark a big victory for UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer — his predecessors have failed to land a deal ever since Britain voted to leave the European Union in 2016. The idea was to replace the UK’s continental trade partners with the US, the world’s largest consumer market. Pro-Brexit politicians like Nigel Farage had long promised that Brexit would result in just such a US trade accord.
The irony: it’s finally within sight, thanks, no less, to Starmer, a prominent Remainer.An aerial photo shows the Kumamoto factory of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. (TSMC), the largest semiconductor contract manufacturer, in Kikuyo Town, Kumamoto Prefecture, Japan, on March 14, 2025.
Trump prepares to slap tariffs on semiconductors and pharma
The topsy-turvy-tariff tale continued to swing this week, as the Trump administration advanced a plan on Monday that could result in new levies on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals. The news came days after US President Donald Trump announced that smartphones would be exempt from the 145% duty that he had slapped on China.
Officially, the plan involves a first step of investigating the national security implications of importing pharma and semiconductors. The next step would be to invoke Section 232 of the 1962 Trade Expansion Act, which allows a president to impose tariffs in the interests of protecting national security. As such, the means for this latest slate of levies would be different from the widescale duties announced on “liberation day.”
Countries affected. The United States relies heavily on Taiwan in particular for semiconductors — one plant there crafts 92% of the world’s advanced chips. As for pharmaceuticals, the US imports many from China, Ireland, and India.
All that and a bag of CHIPS. Former President Joe Biden tried to spark the US’s own semiconductor industry with the 2022 CHIPS and Science Act, which allocated $53 billion for domestic semiconductor manufacturing. Trump said last month he wanted to “get rid of” the CHIPS Act, yet his more recent actions suggest he’s interested in leveraging the law to further his plan to reduce US reliance on foreign chips.