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Government shutdown and trade tensions test US economy
As the US economy continues to defy expectations, Eurasia Group Managing Director of Global Macro Robert Kahn says the key question is whether a slowdown has been avoided or merely delayed. “The headline here is the impressive resilience of the US, maybe also the global economy over the last six months,” Kahn tells GZERO Media’s Tony Maciulis on the sidelines of the 2025 World Bank–IMF Annual Meetings.
He points to an AI-driven boom and tariff dynamics as major short-term supports, while warning that these trends may not be sustainable. Kahn also highlights deep uncertainty in the US–China trade relationship, describing a “fragile” moment of misunderstanding and escalation. Looking ahead, he flags the uneven nature of US growth and a prolonged government shutdown as key risks that could shift the economic outlook heading into the end of the year.
This conversation is presented by GZERO in partnership with Microsoft. The Global Stage series convenes global leaders for critical discussions on the geopolitical and technological trends shaping our world.
Global trade is experiencing a tectonic shift, says UNCTAD's Rebeca Grynspan
The Trump administration’s tariffs have added uncertainty and complexity to global trade, particularly burdening emerging and developing economies.
UNCTAD Secretary-General Rebeca Grynspan calls this a “tectonic shift in the trade regime,” noting that negotiations have replaced a potential tariff war.
She warns that vulnerable countries are being hit hardest often facing higher tariffs than major US trading partners despite posing little threat. Grynspan urges the US government to reconsider these trade measures to avoid devastating impacts.
Watch more Global Stage coverage from the 80th Session of the United Nations General Assembly here: gzeromedia.com/globalstage
Haasstile Actors
President Donald J. Trump is on the cusp of waging three wars at once: political, economic, and boots-on-the-ground real.
So says Council on Foreign Relations President Richard N. Haass in a remarkably chipper interview for today's show.
+Tarriffying Trade Escalation with China + Syria Withdrawal(?) +Israel/Palestine Border Fights