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Palestinians travel in vehicles between the northern and southern Gaza Strip along the Rashid Road on April 2, 2025.
Israel seizes more Gaza territory – for how long?
Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahusaid Wednesday that Israel was seizing more territory in Gaza to “divide up” the besieged enclave. He spoke as Israeli forces increased the intensity of their assault on Hamas in Gaza, which resumed two weeks ago after phase one of the ceasefire agreed to in January ended.
The context: Hamas still holds 59 hostages captured during the group’s Oct. 7, 2023, attacks in southern Israel. The two sides are deadlocked on reaching a further deal: Netanyahu wants full Hamas disarmament, Israeli security control of Gaza, and the “voluntary” migration of Gazans. Hamas rejects that and says it will release the remaining hostages – 24 are believed to still be alive – only if Israel withdraws fully.
What territory is Israel taking? Netanyahu pointed specifically to a new “Morag Corridor,” which would bisect southern Gaza, cutting off the cities of Rafah and Khan Younis from each other. Since October 2023, the IDF has already occupied nearly 20% of Gazan territory, forming “buffer zones” around the edges of the enclave.
The big question: Is this a tactical move meant to heighten the pressure on Hamas to release the remaining hostages? Or is Israel planning to hold onto vast swathes of Gaza … indefinitely?
US travel warnings issued by its closest allies
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
Why are some countries issuing travel advisories for visiting the United States?
You'd call it an abundance of caution, but things are moving very quickly in the US. It's only been two months since Trump has been inaugurated. And many countries, allies of the US, feel that treatment of their citizens will not be aligned with rule of law in the United States. Certainly, worry given, for example, some green card holders facing deportation for what would be considered for an American citizen just exercise of freedom of speech, freedom of organization.
Also, they've seen what's happened with law firms and the chilling impact of Trump going after them if they are engaged in supporting lawsuits against the government. All of those things and a recognition that these are moving fast and getting more challenging quickly, quickly, quickly, is making a whole bunch of American allies issue travel advisories telling their citizens, "You shouldn't be traveling to the US right now." We've already seen a big economic impact of Canada tourism to the United States hurting the US economy. Haven't seen that as much from Europe yet, but I expect that you will. And of course, in terms of people that are applying for green cards and wanting to get jobs in top American corporations or apply to be students at top American universities, I think that's going to have a big impact going forward longer term.
How are the political tensions in Netanyahu's government impacting the war with Hamas?
Well, the fact that the far-right coalition is fully back together because the war has restarted. That's why the far-right party left, and that was because they didn't like the ceasefire and they certainly were opposed to phase two that would've led to the Israelis to do a full pullout of the military from Gaza. Well, now the war has restarted, the Israeli government is talking directly about annexation if the hostages are not all released. And they're doing that with full support of the United States. Big demonstrations in Israel, concerned that Israel is no longer going to be a democracy, especially because the prime minister has now sacked his Attorney General, has sacked the head of the Shin Bet, both unprecedented for Israel since independence. But Netanyahu has full support from his coalition and from the United States. So, he's in a strong position right now.
Will public outcry over the arrest of Istanbul's mayor lead to major political reforms or shifts within the Turkish government?
I don't expect so at all. They are allowing for large demonstrations to continue in Istanbul, even though President Erdogan has said that's illegal, in part because there's a lot of media there. There's a lot of focus there. They clearly want to limit that violence. But they've been cracking down really hard everywhere else in the country, including the capital, Ankara. They've dealt with this sort of thing in the past. The military is fully aligned with Erdogan, and the top is quite politicized. Media, dido, overwhelmingly aligned with the state. So is the judiciary after the failed coup attempt.
So for all of those reasons, I think this is going to be a move from Erdogan towards a more direct autocracy as opposed to a hybrid system. Unfortunate and yet one more place where the Europeans are in trouble. But nonetheless he's been quite useful to a number of other countries around the world in terms of dealing with refugees from Syria. If you're the Europeans, dealing with Turkey on the ground, dealing with Syria on the ground, and stability if you're the United States. And the Gulf States have found him useful as an interlocutor as well on Russia-Ukraine too. So for all of those reasons, very important internationally, very repressive domestically. Two things I expect to continue.
Smoke rises from a burning building in North Gaza, as seen from the Israel-Gaza border, March 23, 2025.
Israel ramps up military offensives as Bibi battles the courts
Israel stepped up its attacks against Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon this weekend. The Israeli military ordered the evacuation of Rafah and confirmed the killing of a Hamas leader on Sunday, while the Israeli cabinet approved a proposal to create a directorate to advance the “voluntary departure” of Palestinians from Gaza. In Lebanon, Israel carried out airstrikes in retaliation for rockets fired into Israel. The strikes killed seven people, including a child, according to Lebanon’s health ministry, and prompted fears of a “new war” in the region.
But Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s biggest fight might be internal. Last week, he announced the firing of Shin Bet security head Ronen Bar over alleged failures to prevent the Oct. 7 attacks in 2023. Bar had been investigating Netanyahu’s office for allegations of corruption.
On Friday, the Israeli courts stayed Bar’s dismissal pending further hearings. Now, the Israeli prime minister is attempting to remove Attorney General Gali Baharav-Miara, who vocally opposed the dismissal of Bar and has clashed with Netanyahu over his proposed overhaul of the judicial system, an issue which has Israelis taking to the streets regularly to protest his attempts to expand executive power.
On Sunday, the Israeli cabinet unanimously passed a no-confidence motion against Baharav-Miara for “ongoing substantial differences of opinion between the government and the attorney general, which prevents effective collaboration.” The issue of her removal will now go to a committee expected to be stacked with Netanyahu loyalists, whose decision can then be appealed to the Supreme Court.
That process could take weeks and set up a showdown between the executive and judicial branches of government. Opposition leader Yair Lapid warned that if Netanyahu defies the courts, Israel “will no longer [be] a democracy” – and that citizens may stop paying taxes in protest.Israelis protest against the government over Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's plans to remove Shin Bet chief Ronen Bar, the resumption of Israeli strikes on Gaza, and the return of far-right politician Itamar Ben Gvir to the cabinet.
Israel launches Gaza ground operation, Bibi faces blowback
Israel has launched a “limited ground operation” to retake the strategic Netzarim Corridor in Gaza as part of its offensive against Hamas, sealing off North and South Gaza and reoccupying four fortified bases. The moves follow Israeli airstrikes that reportedly killed over 400 Palestinians in 48 hours.
In a statement Wednesday, Hamas called the ground incursion a "new and dangerous violation" of the ceasefire deal. The United Nations also condemned an Israeli strike that killed a UN staffer and wounded five others in central Gaza City, and the International Committee of the Red Cross warned that Gaza hospitals are running out of medical supplies.
What’s the view from Israel? Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu insists the offensive will continue until Hamas is eliminated and all 59 remaining Israeli hostages are freed. In Jerusalem, however, tens of thousands of demonstrators marched Wednesday morning to protest the collapse of the ceasefire as well as efforts to remove the chief of the Shin Bet security force, Ronen Bar, who has been investigating Netanyahu’s aides on corruption allegations.
Attorney General Gali Baharav-Miara is refusing to dismiss Bar without a legal review, saying that “the role of the head of the Shin Bet is not a personal trust position serving the prime minister.” We’re watching whether Bibi will continue to press his case, or whether public pressure will make him back down.People march towards Jerusalem during a rally against the government and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to demand the release of all hostages from Gaza, on March 18, 2025.
How Israel’s new Gaza attacks could benefit Bibi
The party of far-right Israeli politician and former National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir has rejoined Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government following renewed Israeli attacks on Gaza.
Ben Gvir withdrew his Jewish Power party from the governing coalition in January over the negotiating of the ceasefire. At the time, he expressed a willingness to return to the coalition should Israel resume fighting; true to his word, Jewish Power reunited with Netanyahu’s Likud and several smaller right-wing parties on Tuesday, strengthening Netanyahu’s coalition.
The attacks, which started early Tuesday with widespread bombings and ended the ceasefire in place since Jan. 19, have already killed more than 400 Palestinians, according to the Hamas-run health ministry. Mediators from Israel and Hamas, as well as the US, Egypt, and Qatar, attempted to negotiate a second phase of the ceasefire, which was supposed to see Hamas return more hostages in exchange for Israel’s complete troop withdrawal from Gaza. But during the talks, Israel made it clear it hoped instead to extend the first phase to get more hostages back while still keeping troops in place.
The timing, according to Eurasia Group’s Managing Director for Middle East & North Africa Firas Maksad, coincides with Wednesday’s discussion of the 2025 budget by Israel’s Knesset Finance Committee.“Netanyahu has a very fragile government coalition, and an inability to see that budget through by March 31 would mean the collapse of the coalition and having to go to early elections.”
If Netanyahu lost his position, he would have less protection and ability to shape the outcome of his ongoing corruption trial.
“Having Ben Gvir back under the tent gives [Netanyahu] a lot more breathing room and flexibility,” Maksad said.
But the renewed military operations are disastrous for Gazans – who have seen humanitarian aid blocked for two weeks – and for the families of Israel’s remaining hostages.Palestinians are fleeing their homes in response to Israel army evacuation orders in a number of neighborhoods following heavy Israeli strikes in Beit Lahiya in the northern Gaza Strip on March 18, 2025.
Ceasefire ends as Israel resumes Gaza bombing
The Israel-Hamas ceasefire ended overnight, as Israel resumed airstrikes on the Gaza Strip following Hamas’ refusal to release Israeli hostages. The Israeli Defense Forces targeted mid-level Hamas commanders, members of Hamas’ politburo, and its infrastructure in multiple locations across Gaza, including Rafah, Khan Younis, and Gaza City.Over 300 fatalities have been reported, according to the Hamas-run health ministry. The White House said that it was briefed in advance of the operation.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office stated on X that the strikes followed the “repeated refusal to release our hostages and its rejection of all the proposals it received from US president’s envoy, Steve Witkoff, and from the mediators … Israel will, from now on, act against Hamas with increasing military strength.”
Israel believes there are about 24 living hostages and 35 dead hostages still in Gaza. Hamas issued a statement saying Netanyahu’s decision to resume “aggression” against the territory exposes the hostages “to an unknown fate.” The IDF says it will continue the airstrikes “as long as necessary,” and expand the operation beyond an aerial campaign if ordered to do so by the Israeli government.
A group representing the families of the remaining hostages accused Netanyahu’s government today of choosing “to give up the hostages” by launching new strikes.
Israeli tanks are seen inside Gaza amid a ceasefire breakdown between Israel and Hamas on March 2, 2025.
Israel disrupts aid delivery to Gaza after ceasefire talks fail
Israeli Defense Forces blocked aid trucks from entering Gaza on Sunday, just one day after the first phase of the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas expired, bringing negotiations over a permanent truce to a standstill. Arab states have condemned the Israeli move.
Context: Under the original ceasefire agreement, Israel and Hamas were supposed to enter the second phase of the deal on Saturday. This would have involved the release of the remaining 59 Israeli hostages by Hamas and the full withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza. This original concept has now been undermined as the Israelis are instead looking for alternative options for extending the first phase of the tenuous truce.
What’s next: By blocking aid from Gaza, Israel is seeking to build leverage. Rather than commencing its withdrawal in return for the remaining hostages, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahunow wants the militant group to release half of the captives before it negotiates a permanent ceasefire before April 20. Hamas has refused the extension and wants Egypt and Qatar to mediate.
Points of leverage: Israel is using the withholding of aid and the threat of further fighting to corner its adversary. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Saturday announced another $4 billion in military aid for Israel to help boost its security. As long as Hamas retains the 59 hostages, though, there will be pressure on Netanyahu to swiftly bring an end to the war — polls show an overwhelming majority of Israelis want the prime minister to maintain the ceasefire deal.
Will Trump & Musk punish Brazil over Bolsonaro indictment?
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
What is Trump's long-term play with apparently treating Putin like a friend rather than an adversary?
His play is to end the war in Ukraine. His play is to be seen as a great deal-maker and also a return to what we call the law of the jungle, where the most powerful countries are the ones that deserve to be at the table, and if you're not at the table you're being served for dinner. That is where I think we're going. I don't think that Secretary of State Marco Rubio wanted to be there, but he's much more... He's going to be loyal, and I think the Republican senators have pushed back hard on Gaza but not so much on this. We'll see. Certainly from Riyadh, from what we've heard from Elon, what we've heard from Trump, they are working very hard to get a full reconciliation between the United States and Russia, between Trump and Putin, irrespective of what the Europeans have to say about it. And the Ukrainians are going to be pressed very, very hard to accept the deal or be left all by themselves. We'll see how the Europeans and the Ukrainians play it, but that is what they're looking at.
How likely would the release of all remaining captives, as proposed by Hamas, actually lead to a permanent truce with Israel?
Well permanent truce with Israel implies you can agree on what governance in Gaza is going to look like. The Israelis, of course, refuse to accept a state for the Palestinians. The Israelis refuse not only for Hamas to participate in any government, not surprisingly. But, of course, also the Palestinian authority participate in government. That's very different from what the Gulf states, what the Egyptians, what the Jordanians, all America's allies, are planning to propose for Gaza. I think we can get an extended ceasefire. That ceasefire might last essentially permanently, but the Israelis would still have a buffer zone, you wouldn't be heading towards statehood, and the Israelis would reserve the right to continue to engage in selected strikes if they see targets of opportunity that they consider to be militants working with for Hamas. So that's where I think we are, but very unlikely at this point that I think you'll see a restart of the war that has been lasting for well over a year at this point. I think full-blown military incursion on the ground is now on the rear-view mirror.
Does Bolsonaro's indictment for an alleged coup plot signal tough times ahead for Brazil?
I think it does. It's very likely that Bolsonaro is going to end up imprisoned. That case is going to take a while to work through the courts. Probably won't be resolved until 2026 with all the appeals that will end up happening, but he won't be able to run again. Now you can still announce you're going to run and then pull out your candidacy at the last minute like Lula did, who served time in jail himself in the past, so this isn't completely new uncharted territory for the Brazilians. But keep in mind that if Bolsonaro is refused to be allowed to run, he is completely supported by Trump. He's completely supported by Elon Musk, and that will get stronger. The Supreme Court in Brazil is politicized and is also seen by Trump and Musk as root of all evil in Brazil, so they'll be going after that. And will that be tied to tougher tariffs on Brazil? I expect it will. So, I think Brazil is going to be in a lot of trouble here, and I think that their economy is probably going to take a hit on the back of what we're going to see politically inside Brazil and the nature of the relations with the United States. Okay, that's it for me, and I'll talk to you all real soon.