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Emergency personnel work at an impact site following a missile attack from Iran on Israel, in Tel Aviv, Israel, on June 16, 2025.
Iran-Israel battle escalates: What will Trump do?
The war between Israel and Iran continued to escalate over the weekend, with Israel hitting Iran’s energy facilities, while Tehran launched hundreds of missiles and drones at Tel Aviv and other metropolitan areas. Dozens of Israelis have been killed, while Iran has suffered over 200 fatalities.
What’s Israel’s goal here? Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wants to destroy Iran’s nuclear programme – that much we know. One outside analyst suggested he wants something bigger than this, namely regime change. US President Donald Trump reportedly vetoed an Israeli plan to assassinate Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, highlighting Netanyahu’s aggressive posture.
What about Iran? Survival of the regime and the nuclear program are the goals. Tehran has limited capacity for counterstrikes – it only had 2,000 missiles capable of reaching Israel at the start of the war, per Israeli intelligence, and has already used hundreds of them. It doesn’t want to prompt the US to get involved – which may explain why it hasn’t closed the Strait of Hormuz, a key oil export chokepoint.
So what will the United States do? That’s the big question. Trump urged the two adversaries to make a deal in a social media post on Sunday. The US president’s online calls for peace haven’t always been heeded, though – looking at you, Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Assuming there’s no deal, the question becomes whether the US will help Israel to “finish the job” of destroying Iran’s nuclear facilities, which are buried deep underground. Most experts believe that only the US has the kind of bunker busting bombs that could penetrate deep enough to hit them.
Trump’s dilemma: He campaigned for president on a promise to end US involvement in foreign wars. Some hard-right elements of his own MAGA coalition oppose getting more involved. At the same time, a recent poll showed a slim majority of Americans, and a sizable majority of Republicans, support helping Israel to destroy Iran’s nuclear program. Trump must tread carefully: getting involved could risk a wider war, but staying on the sidelines could also spur Iran and Israel to continue escalation. Your call, Mr. President...Iranian policemen monitor an area near a residential complex that is damaged in Israeli attacks in Tehran, Iran, on June 13, 2025.
The world on edge: Israel bombs Iran
Israel bombed Iran’s nuclear facilities Thursday night, causing “significant damage” at the country’s main enrichment plant, killing leading Iranian military figures and nuclear scientists, and sparking fears that the Middle East is on the verge of a wider war.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Friday morning the operation hasn’t ended, with strikes continuing into the afternoon.
The United States denied any involvement in the attacks, even though previous reports have suggested that Israeli Defense Forces couldn’t destroy Tehran’s nuclear facilities without Washington’s help. US President Donald Trump nonetheless used the opportunity to press Iran into making a deal – the US and Iran were supposed to hold talks in Oman on Sunday, but it’s now unclear whether Iranian officials will attend.
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei pledged a “harsh” response, but their ability to respond has been hindered by Israeli strikes on Iran’s long-range missile facilities and air defenses. The IDF reported on Friday morning that Iran launched 100 drones into Israel, but there were no reports of significant damage.
The strikes mark a seminal moment for Netanyahu. The Israeli leader has long threatened bombing Iran, as he sees this as the only effective method of preventing Tehran from acquiring a nuclear weapon – he doesn’t believe the US nuclear talks can achieve this. Netanyahu never followed through with this threat when former US President Barack Obama was negotiating a nuclear deal with Tehran a decade ago. This time is different: Netanyahu believes Iran is weak – many of their allies in the Middle East are either severely diminished or in exile – so he took his chance.
The strikes went much further than last year’s exchanges, in which Israel bombed the Iranian embassy in Damascus, Syria and Iran responded with a volley of 300 drones and missiles at Israel, which inflicted little visible damage.
Israel’s strikes yesterday didn’t come totally out of the blue. US and European officials warned earlier in the week that Israel was preparing a strike. Washington also evacuated nonessential staff from its embassy in Baghdad, as well as family members of military personnel at its Middle East bases, amid concerns about a widening conflict.
Where does it go from here? We asked Eurasia Group’s Middle East expert Firas Maksad to shed some light on a complex and dangerous situation. The conversation was edited for length and clarity.
Q: How will Iran respond, and what can it do now that some of its military capabilities have been damaged?
- Maksad: “It has to respond forcefully, if only to save face with a domestic audience, which is important for regime stability, but also to have leverage if there is any return to negotiations further down the road. However, its ability to reach Israel and effect significant damage is fairly limited. Its other options – including closure of the Straits of Hormuz, impacting oil prices or attacks against American basing facilities or even energy facilities in the GCC – those are all options that can backfire and provide the United States with enough pretext and reason to join the war.”
Q: Who, if anyone, can help Iran respond?
- Maksad: “Iran will naturally look towards its proxy network in the region in pursuit of its forward defense strategy, essentially having Hezbollah, but also the Houthis and the militias in Iraq, to come to its aid in a response. However, [the ability of these groups to respond] has been greatly diminished as a result of the past 18 months or so of war.”
Q: Will Israel attack more?
- Maksad: “The Israelis have said that this is only the beginning, the opening salvo of a long and sustained military campaign. I believe that to be the case. They can, in fact, inflict significant damage against Iran’s nuclear infrastructure. However, that will require multiple waves of strikes for days and weeks to come, and so I suspect that this will be with us for quite some time.”
Q: Are there any hopes left for a US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Maksad: “Diplomacy is dead for the foreseeable future. It is very unlikely that the Iranian government will return to the negotiating table without at least having attempted a retaliatory strike first, for the purposes of saving face and gathering leverage. This will require some time, particularly as these Israeli strikes are ongoing, and so it is very unlikely, despite President Trump's call for Iran to come back to diplomacy, that the diplomatic off ramp will be Iran’s preferred path forward for weeks to come.”
We also asked Eurasia Group’s Director of Analysis Marc Gustafson whether the United States could be dragged into a regional war.
- Gustafson: “Trump will try to avoid getting involved. Not just because it is risky for the US military, but also because his campaign promise has been to get the US out of foreign wars. This message resonates with his base. That said, the US could get pulled into the conflict. [For example,] if Iran starts attacking US bases within range of Iran’s short-range missiles, Trump will be under considerable pressure to respond militarily.”
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu attends a discussion on the subject of hostages kidnapped during the deadly October 7, 2023 attack, in Israel's parliament, the Knesset, in Jerusalem, November 18, 2024.
What We’re Watching: Bibi on the brink, US-China truce, Elon-Trump detente
Will Israel’s government be dissolved?
The warning signs are flashing for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as the Knesset prepares to vote later today on whether to dissolve his government. The crisis was triggered when a pair of ultra-Orthodox parties in Bibi’s coalition signaled last week they would ditch the coalition over plans to end certain military exemptions. For more on what the collapse of Netanyahu’s government could mean, see here.
US and China reach tariff ceasefire
The United States and China reportedly agreed to a trade truce Wednesday, with US President Donald Trump saying Chinese imports will now face a 55% tariff while Beijing keeps a 10% levy on US products. Importantly, China has restarted its exports of high-tech magnets and rare earth minerals, and the White House reaffirmed Chinese students’ access to US colleges. Still, details of any larger deal covering broader issues of market access and technological competition are far from being ironed out.
Musk v Trump: Is it too late now to say sorry?
Elon Musk appears to be tapping out in his highly-public feud with US President Donald Trump, posting on X (early) this morning that he “regrets” the insults he’s hurled at the president.We’ll be watching to see if the detente holds between these two famously volatile figures. With midterms on the horizon, it matters: Musk’s financial firepower is significant, as we saw here.
For more:Ian Bremmersat down with Semafor Co-Founder and Editor-in-Chief Ben Smith to discuss the Musk-Trump beef and what it tells us about political power in America today.
US President Donald Trump meets with China's President Xi Jinping at the start of their bilateral meeting at the G20 leaders summit in Osaka, Japan, on June 29, 2019.
What We’re Watching: Trump-Xi phone call, Netanyahu’s coalition cracks apart, & More
Trump speaks with Xi
US President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping spoke Thursday for the first time since the former returned to office, as a recent pause in their trade war looked set to fall apart. Both sides recently stepped back from mutual triple-digit tariffs, but Beijing has drawn fire from Trump for restricting the export of rare earths minerals used by the US auto and tech industries. No breakthroughs were announced but Trump described the call as “very positive” and said a summit is in the works.
Netanyahu’s coalition set for divorce
In what could spell the end for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government, two ultra-Orthodox parties that form part of the governing coalition are reportedly set to back the Knesset’s dissolution, in protest against a potential new law that would fine religious university students who skip military service. The dissolution vote will take place on June 11. If United Torah Judaism and Shas, the two dissenting parties, join the opposition in voting to dissolve the government, there will be elections again in Israel.
US institutes new travel ban
Trump on Wednesday barred foreign nationals from 12 countries from entering the United States – including Afghanistan and Haiti – and placed partial restrictions on seven others. The ban is set to take effect on Monday 12:01 EST. The US president linked the new restrictions to Sunday’s terror attack in Colorado against a group of people who were marching in solidarity for the Israeli hostages in Gaza. Trump implemented a similar travel ban during his first term, one that the Supreme Court upheld in 2018.US President Donald Trump talks to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu during a meeting where Trump announced nuclear talks with Iran, in Washington, D.C., USA, on April 7, 2025.
Bibi and Trump beef over Iran plan
Ten years ago, a US president tried to clinch a nuclear deal with Iran while Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu threatened to bomb Tehran’s uranium facilities.
Donald Trump now faces the same issue as his old nemesis Barack Obama: the incumbent president wants a deal with Iran, while the Israeli PM wants to bomb it.
But there’s a key difference this time: unlike in 2015, Netanyahu’s government relies on support from far-right figures who are extremely hawkish on Iran. What’s more, Iran is more vulnerable now – Israel has pummeled Tehran’s key proxies Hamas and Hezbollah (just yesterday Israel killed Hamas’ Gaza leader Mohammad Sinwar (Yahya’s brother), plus the pro-Iran Syrian regime of Bashar al-Assad fell late last year. This time around, Netanyahu’s threats to bomb Iran might be more than just posturing.
Didn’t Trump dismantle the last deal? Yes indeed! Trump exited the Obama-era Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in 2018. Under this plan, Iran had to demolish large parts of its nuclear program, and allow regular inspections of its facilities, in exchange for relief from crippling US and international sanctions on its energy exports and banks. The agreement did, however, allow Iran to continue enriching uranium at low levels until 2030, beyond which the limits were gone.
What’s happened since Trump ditched that deal? Maybe you’ll have guessed it: Iran, whose official position is that its nuclear ambitions are purely for energy, has enriched its uranium up to 60% purity after the US reinstalled the sanctions. Experts warn it is now less than a year away from producing a nuclear bomb.
Enough about the past – give me the update. Much like a decade ago, Bibi is none too happy about the prospect of an US-Iran nuclear deal, as it would strengthen a regime that he’d rather see fall – he views it as an existential threat to Israel.
“Attacking Iran and eliminating the threat of its nuclear program is something that has broad support in the Israeli security establishment and would cement Netanyahu’s status as one of Israel’s great leaders — if he can pull it off,” says Eurasia Group’s Iran expert Greg Brew.
Trump, by contrast, believes Tehran’s weak position makes it the perfect time to cut a deal – the US president said Wednesday that he told Netanyahu not to bomb Iran.
“I told him this would be inappropriate to do right now because we’re very close to a solution,” Trump said, adding that the two sides could reach an agreement in the next two weeks. In reality, per Brew, “a full deal is a long way off.”
But what if Israel strikes Iran? Would the US back them? Safe to say that Trump would be rather miffed if Israel proceeds with its attack plans – his reportedly feisty phone call with Netanyahu on Sunday attests to this. However, Bibi requires US support if he wants to destroy Iran’s nuclear program, so there’s a limit to what he can unilaterally achieve.
If an Israeli attack – with or without US support – prompted an Iranian response, the White House would feel pressure to back its ally, just as it did so when Tehran sent bombs into Israel last year. And if the US gets involved, it would all but kill any hopes of a deal.
American attitudes toward Israel have changed, too. There is something else that has changed since the US and Iran last negotiated a nuclear deal: Americans are much less supportive of Israel. As of March, 46% said they were more sympathetic to Israel amid their war with the Palestinians, the lowest rate in 25 years of polling, and down 16 points from a decade ago. Though the drop in support is sharpest among Democrats, a few hard-right influencers (looking at you, Tucker Carlson) have also questioned America’s support for Israel.
“There’s an outside chance that Trump doesn’t help Bibi but leaves Israel to defend itself against Iranian attack,” says Brew. “This is an immensely risky proposition for Bibi, and one of the reasons why he’s unlikely to attack Iran without first nailing down Trump’s support.”
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and European Union foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini brief the media at the European Council in Brussels, Belgium, on December 11, 2017.
What We’re Watching: Pressure on Israel, Jitters in Bolivia, Podcasts for Democrats
Israel under fresh pressure
The UK and EU threatened Tuesday to revise trade ties with Israel unless PM Benjamin Netanyahu stops the new offensive in the Gaza Strip and allows sufficient humanitarian aid into the besieged enclave. This comes after the UK, Canada, and France threatened Israel on Monday with “concrete measures,” like sanctions. Netanyahu and his far right coalition allies say they are intent on destroying Hamas, though critics warn Israel is becoming a “pariah.”
The Morales of the story: Bolivian heavyweight to defy election exclusion
Bolivia’s socialist powerbroker Evo Morales, who governed from 2006 until he was ousted in protests in 2019, is officially ineligible to run in this August’s presidential election because of term limits. Yet he has pledged to mobilize his supporters to defy this rule, setting up a potentially destabilizing contest as his once-formidable leftwing MAS movement splinters into rival factions.
Democratic donors try a pivot to podcast
Faced with the vast array of conservative or MAGA-friendly online influencers who helped Donald Trump to win the 2024 election, Democrats and their donors are now trying to cultivate a creator economy of their own ahead of the 2026 midterms. There’s lots of money and pitches, but can you really create a viable ecosystem of influencers overnight? Authenticity, the heartbeat of any political campaign, is hard to create in a lab. You’re either a born killer or you’re not.
Demonstrators clash with police during a protest for the release of hostages held in Gaza, outside the home of Minister of Strategic Affairs Ron Dermer in Jerusalem, Israel, on April 13, 2025.
Current and former Israeli security forces demand a deal with Hamas
Thousands of Israeli soldiers, senior military officials, former intelligence operatives, military reservists, and veterans organizations have called on Israel’s prime minister to strike a deal with Hamas to free the remaining 59 hostages the group holds.
Twenty-four of those captives, taken during the group’s October 7, 2023 rampage into Southern Israel, are believed still alive, although Hamas said it lost contact with one living US-Israeli hostage yesterday.
In a series of open letters, these groups accuse Benjamin Netanyahu of endangering Israel’s security. Some claim he’s continuing the war to appease the right-wing nationalist parties that help him remain prime minister.
A missive from special forces reservists published on Monday said the latest wave of Israeli assaults on Gaza, which began last month after phase one of the Hamas-Israel ceasefire deal lapsed, “is intended only to serve the political goals of the government and the criminal defendant who heads it.” This is a pointed reference to the corruption charges Netanyahu has faced since before the war. He effectively holds immunity against them so long as he is prime minister.
Netanyahu has denounced those protesting. They are “frustrated retirees”, he said, and “an extreme fringe group that is once again trying to break Israeli society from within.”
Recent polls report that about 70% of Israeli Jews favor a deal with Hamas to free the remaining hostages, even if that means ending the war.
The big question: How long can Netanyahu continue a policy that moves out of line with what a majority of Israeli Jews want?
President Donald Trump welcomes Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the entrance of the White House in Washington, on Feb. 4, 2025.
Netanyahu and Trump to talk tariffs, terror, Turkey, and more at White House on Monday
Tariffs top the menu. The main event will be Trump’s 17% tariff on Israeli exports, which will hurt several of its key industries, including diamonds, pharmaceuticals, and electronics. Israel had hoped to preempt additional levies by dropping all its tariffs on US goods last week, but Trump imposed them anyway, citing America’s trade deficit with Israel. Netanyahu hopes to be the first world leader to convince Trump to drop the new levies.
Gaza and the West Bank. Israel has intensified military operations in Gaza, deploying troops to establish the Morag Corridor to the south to pressure Hamas to release the remaining Israeli hostages. At the same time, tensions have been rising in the West Bank, where Israel is authorizing new settlements and being accused of the “Gazafication” of the territory. Bibi will be seeking continued support for Israel’s stance and is likely encouraged by Washington’s recent greenlighting of the export of 20,000 assault rifles, held up under the administration of Joe Biden for fear they might be used by extremist Israeli settlers.
Turkey, Iran, and the rest of the neighborhood. Netanyahu and Trump will also reportedly discuss Israel-Turkey relations and strategies concerning Iran’s nuclear ambitions, and they may also touch on the International Criminal Court’s arrest warrant for Netanyahu over alleged war crimes in Gaza – an issue that prompted Hungary to withdraw from the ICC last week. Trump sanctioned court officials during Netanyahu’s first White House visit in February – we’ll be watching to see if he takes further action this time.