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Getting to ‘yes’ on a new Iran deal

Ian Bremmer's Quick Take:

Hi everybody. Ian Bremmer here. Welcome to your week and I've got your Quick Take and thought I would talk a little bit about where we are with Iran. One of the Biden administration's promises upon election was to get the Americans back into the JCPOA, the Iranian nuclear deal. As of last week, negotiations are formally restarted, and pretty quickly, in Vienna, they're not direct. The Americans and Iranians are both there, but they're being intermediated by the Europeans because they're not yet ready to show that they can talk directly to each other. That's Iran being cautious in the run-up to their presidential election coming this summer. But the movement is there. So far the talk has largely been about sequencing the Iranian government, saying that all of the sanctions need to be removed before they're willing to go back into the deal, because the Americans after all, unilaterally withdrew from a deal that the Iranians were indeed adhering to, and the inspections did confirm that.

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Israel's election results, US-Iran nuclear talks, and vaccine passports

Ian Bremmer discusses Netanyahu's challenge, the US-Iran nuclear talks, and why vaccine passports are a good idea on this edition of World In 60 Seconds.

Will Israel's Netanyahu be able to successfully form a new government?

Well, he's been given the charge to. I guess he has 28 days to do it. It's a really, really tight equation. He'd have to get both an ultra-right party that's got a bunch of serious Islamophobes in it and a Muslim party to join. I think they're heading for no-such-luck, and the fifth election in just a couple of years. Israel just keep getting it done. Not as much to worry about, given that the pandemic's been handled with all those vaccines, but still quite a problem.

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Colombia's humanitarian gesture for Venezuelan refugees merits US support

Ian Bremmer shares his perspective on global politics on this week's World In (More Than) 60 Seconds:

Number one, why did Colombia's president grant legal status to 1.7 million Venezuelan migrants?

Well, because they have them, first of all. Because given the extraordinary economic collapse and the human rights abuses of Venezuelans under the Maduro presidency, not to mention the coronavirus crisis making their lives even worse, they've been fleeing, and most of them have ended up in Colombia. Not providing legal status means they can't work, means they have no path for a future. Some of them have even fled back to Venezuela or returned to Venezuela, and again just shows just how critically difficult their life has been. It's a humanitarian gesture of pretty staggering degree. It makes an enormous difference in the lives of these people. Think about how the United States under Biden now preparing to accept 125,000 refugees per year, up 10 times from what it was just a year ago, the world's most powerful country. The wealthy countries never get overwhelmed with refugees the way the poorest countries do. It's states in Sub-Saharan Africa and it's South and Southeast Asia and it's Latin America, and in the Western hemisphere, it's been Colombia.

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Quick Take: What the assassination in Iran means

Ian Bremmer's Quick Take:

Hey everybody. Ian Bremmer here, have your quick take. Plenty going on this week. I could of course talk about all these new Biden appointees, but frankly, there's not that much that surprising there. Moderate, lots of expertise, not very controversial, almost all of which could get through a Republican controlled Senate, presuming that markets are going to be reasonably happy, progressives in the Democratic party somewhat less so. But no, the big news right now internationally, certainly about Iran. The Iranians started this year with the assassination by the United States of their defense leader, Qasem Soleimani. Everyone was worried about war. Now, closing the year with the assassination of the head of their nuclear program and historically the head of their nuclear weapons program.

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Putin may never congratulate Biden; humanitarian disaster in Ethiopia

Ian Bremmer discusses the World In (more than) 60 Seconds:

Why hasn't Putin congratulated Biden yet?

There's no really good reason at this point. Pretty much every leader around the world has given the nod. As you know, Trump has not in any way conceded at this point. He may never. I suppose, at some point Putin may decide that he doesn't need to formally congratulate Biden. I mean, it's not like we're friends, right? The United States and Russia has a directly confrontational relationship, unlike the US and China, where there is a lot of interdependence, particularly economically between the two countries. That's not true with the US and Russia. You have virtually no trust and very little engagement. I will say that the Biden administration will be interested in re-entering the Open Skies agreement that we just left with the Russians, even though we're now decommissioning the spy plane, so it may be hard for the Americans and selling them for scrap, so it may be difficult to get back in and the intermediate nuclear forces agreement and new start.

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Quick Take: Latest vaccine news may be a light at the end of the tunnel

Ian Bremmer's Quick Take:

Hey, everybody. Ian Bremmer here, happy Monday, Thanksgiving week. Things starting to look increasingly normal in terms of outlook, in terms of having all of these vaccines. I understand that the next few months in the United States are going to be incredibly challenging, but so much easier when you see that there's light at the end of the tunnel and you know where that's coming. Most recently, the AstraZeneca announcement, which for me, in some ways is a bigger deal globally, even than what we've seen from Moderna and Pfizer, because it doesn't require freezing, it's just refrigeration, which means that countries around the world that don't have the infrastructure to deal with this cold chain requirements of these vaccines will be able to use another set of vaccines with different technology. That's not just AstraZeneca, it will be Johnson and Johnson. It's the Russians. It's the Chinese.

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Has Jared Kushner Turned his Back on the Palestinians?

As the White House announces a historic deal between Israel and the UAE, Ian Bremmer talks to the chief architect of the Middle East strategy for President Trump—his senior advisor and son-in-law Jared Kushner. In the conversation, Bremmer challenges Kushner's assertion that the US is trying to give the Palestinians a fair offer and asks if Arab nations have walked away from the Israel/Palestine conflict. As in January, Kushner continues to insist that Palestine has a "fair" and "great" offer for peace, saying: "this deal may be the last opportunity [the Palestinians will] ever have."

Watch the episode: Jared Kushner on Middle East peace & pandemic in the US

Israel & UAE normalize relations: is Middle East peace to come?

On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer examines the recent diplomatic breakthrough in the Middle East as the UAE becomes only the third Arab nation to normalize relations with Israel. The deal comes at a moment when both Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and US President Donald Trump are both politically vulnerable following widespread criticism of mishandling of COVID-19 pandemic response. The man in the middle of both stories is a right hand to President Trump, his son-in-law Jared Kushner.

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