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Attacking Iran has given Bibi new political life. But will he face a backlash at home?
As part of the latest episode of GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, New York Times columnist Tom Friedman breaks down what Israel’s recent military success against Iran means for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s political future—and for the ongoing war in Gaza. While Netanyahu appears to be in a stronger position geopolitically and domestically, Friedman warns that the deeper dynamics in Israel haven’t changed as much as they might seem. “The people who won this war for Israel... were, for the most part, the very same people who were in the streets of Israel for nine months against Netanyahu,” he says.
Despite the military gains, Friedman argues that the hard choices about Gaza remain unchanged: partner with an international Arab force and the Palestinian Authority, let local militias take over, or reoccupy Gaza permanently. The first option, he says, would dramatically shift Israel’s regional position: “If Bibi were to choose door number one... he wins the next five elections.” But with Netanyahu’s domestic opposition still raw and ideologically opposed to his vision, Friedman suggests the post-war political chemistry in Israel—and Iran—is about to get “really interesting.”
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As the Israel-Iran conflict dies down, the domestic battles reignite
It’s been just over a week since US President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire between Israel and Iran. Despite a brief exchange of bombs – and Trump’s f-bomb – in the immediate aftermath of this announcement, a tepid truce appears to be holding, even if questions remain about the extent of the damage to Iran’s nuclear facilities.
But how did the flare-up affect the domestic politics of each country involved? Let’s explore how the 12-day conflict affected the political fortunes of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, and Trump.
Israel: Netanyahu off the ropes, for now.
Three weeks ago, it looked like Netanyahu was staring into the abyss, with his coalition government on the verge of collapse. He survived the vote, then bombed Iran, destroying parts of its nuclear facilities and killing several senior military officials. As a coup de grace, he got the US to join the cause as well.
The data reflects that this was a success for the Israeli leader. Some 70% of Israelis supported the strikes, per one poll, and he also received an electoral polling bump.
Yet Netanyahu isn’t out of the woods – far from it. Though the fighting has ended with Iran, it continues in Gaza. It’s this conflict – and the failure to retrieve the remaining 50 Israeli hostages – that dominates Israel’s domestic politics right now, and it has put Netanyahu in a Catch-22, per Aaron David Miller, a former US diplomat who is now a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
“He’s trapped between his right-wing coalition partners, and public opinion – but even more important, potentially, Donald Trump,” says Miller, referencing how Netanyahu’s right flank doesn’t want him to make a deal with Hamas, whereas the Israeli public and Trump do.
What’s more, Netanyahu still faces a corruption trial. Miller noted that Israel’s judicial branch hasn’t been afraid to imprison the top public officials – former Prime Minister Ehud Olmert served 16 months in jail for bribery – so “this is not an academic matter” to the incumbent leader.
Still, the aura of success surrounding his Iran mission has changed things for him. And with the next election not due until the fall of 2026, he has room to breathe, politically.
“There’s no doubt that his brand has been enhanced tremendously,” says Miller. “He’s probably under less pressure now than at any time since the government was formed in December 2022.”
Iran: Khamenei is down but not out.
The Supreme leader is “categorically weaker” than he was before the conflict, says Dr. Saram Vakil, an Iran expert at the London-based think tank Chatham House.
The reasons are clear: the war significantly damaged Iran, and exposed its military vulnerability. The Islamic Republic lost control of its own skies, its nuclear facilities were heavily damaged. Its response to Israel inflicted little damage, and, after the US airstrikes, Tehran responded with a feeble, face-saving wave of airstrikes against the US base in Qatar – and they reportedly told Trump ahead of time.
Khamenei tried to claim victory, saying that Tehran had “dealt a severe slap to the face of America,” in his first public address after the ceasefire was announced. However, the 86-year-old “looked very diminished” in the video, per Vakil. He was reportedly hastening succession talks during the conflict while hiding in a bunker.
In a bid to quell any potential uprising and maintain the regime’s existence – Khamenei’s top priority – the Islamic Republic has turned to a familiar tactic: mass arrests, executions, and military deployments. Boosting the public’s support for the regime, though, will require a lot more work.
“He has long been criticized, and I think long been held as responsible for the economic stagnation [and] the country’s standoff with the international community. He’s not a bold leader,” Vakil said of the Ayatollah. “There are no clear or easy avenues for him personally or for the state to re-legitimize themselves.”
There is a saving grace for Khamenei: Iran’s powerful military – the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps – is unlikely to overthrow him, per Vakil, and his nuclear facilities remain somewhat intact, at least according to one intercepted call. The supreme leader is down, but not yet out.
United States: Trump celebrates, but also treads carefully
Though initial intelligence assessments were mixed about the extent of the damage to Iran’s nuclear facilities, no American troops died during the attacks and Iran’s immediate response was minor and contained. That seemed to put to rest dire warnings, including from within Trump’s own MAGA camp, that involving the US in another Middle East war would, in the words of former Trump adviser Steve Bannon, “tear the country apart.”
But if the mission didn’t rip up the country, it also hardly united it, according to Larry Sabato, a US politics professor at the University of Virginia.
“Look at the surveys. There’s almost always a rally-around-the flag effect [after a war]. Not this time!”
A CNN/SRSS poll found that just 44% of Americans supported Trump’s strikes on Iran. But his approval ratings – currently in the low 40s – were unmoved by the mission, suggesting that in the end, the relatively limited military engagement has had little political effect.
In fact, if there is something Middle East-related that could cause significant damage to Trump’s ratings, per Sabato, it would be the US getting more involved in the conflict – something few Americans want.
As such, the US president would be wise not to invest too much energy in resolving tensions between Israel and Iran, meaning he will have to work hard to preserve a shaky peace between two bitter adversaries
“Trump’s not going to be the next FDR,” Sabato told GZERO, referencing President Franklin D. Roosevelt’s prominence in the American imagination as a great statesman of both war and peace. “Biden made that mistake – thinking he would be the next FDR – but I don’t think that Trump’s going to be that stupid.”US President Donald Trump says that both Israel and Iran “don't know what the fuck they are doing” after violations of the ceasefire take place. Trump makes these remarks to the press as he boards Marine One for a trip to the NATO Summit on June 24, 2025.
Israel-Iran ceasefire: will it hold?
The Iran-Israel ceasefire that US President Donald Trump announced yesterday evening is hanging by a thread this morning. The Israelis accused the Islamic Republic of firing missiles at them after the ceasefire deadline, and Israel responded, striking a radar system near Tehran. Trump is big mad – four-letter-word mad, even.
Can Trump keep the peace? The US president spoke with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Tuesday morning, urging him not to strike further at Iran. Israel’s initial riposte was limited, suggesting Netanyahu is OK with the truce for now, even if he might still like to weaken the Iranian regime further. Iran, for its part, seems to have little interest in continuing to fight – its missile arsenal is depleted, its launchers destroyed, and senior military leadership have been assassinated.
But tensions between all sides remain high. Tuesday morning’s flare-ups suggest Trump still has his work cut out if he wants to maintain a longer-term truce.Emergency personnel work at an impact site following a missile attack from Iran on Israel, in Tel Aviv, Israel, on June 16, 2025.
Iran-Israel battle escalates: What will Trump do?
The war between Israel and Iran continued to escalate over the weekend, with Israel hitting Iran’s energy facilities, while Tehran launched hundreds of missiles and drones at Tel Aviv and other metropolitan areas. Dozens of Israelis have been killed, while Iran has suffered over 200 fatalities.
What’s Israel’s goal here? Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wants to destroy Iran’s nuclear programme – that much we know. One outside analyst suggested he wants something bigger than this, namely regime change. US President Donald Trump reportedly vetoed an Israeli plan to assassinate Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, highlighting Netanyahu’s aggressive posture.
What about Iran? Survival of the regime and the nuclear program are the goals. Tehran has limited capacity for counterstrikes – it only had 2,000 missiles capable of reaching Israel at the start of the war, per Israeli intelligence, and has already used hundreds of them. It doesn’t want to prompt the US to get involved – which may explain why it hasn’t closed the Strait of Hormuz, a key oil export chokepoint.
So what will the United States do? That’s the big question. Trump urged the two adversaries to make a deal in a social media post on Sunday. The US president’s online calls for peace haven’t always been heeded, though – looking at you, Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Assuming there’s no deal, the question becomes whether the US will help Israel to “finish the job” of destroying Iran’s nuclear facilities, which are buried deep underground. Most experts believe that only the US has the kind of bunker busting bombs that could penetrate deep enough to hit them.
Trump’s dilemma: He campaigned for president on a promise to end US involvement in foreign wars. Some hard-right elements of his own MAGA coalition oppose getting more involved. At the same time, a recent poll showed a slim majority of Americans, and a sizable majority of Republicans, support helping Israel to destroy Iran’s nuclear program. Trump must tread carefully: getting involved could risk a wider war, but staying on the sidelines could also spur Iran and Israel to continue escalation. Your call, Mr. President...Iranian policemen monitor an area near a residential complex that is damaged in Israeli attacks in Tehran, Iran, on June 13, 2025.
The world on edge: Israel bombs Iran
Israel bombed Iran’s nuclear facilities Thursday night, causing “significant damage” at the country’s main enrichment plant, killing leading Iranian military figures and nuclear scientists, and sparking fears that the Middle East is on the verge of a wider war.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Friday morning the operation hasn’t ended, with strikes continuing into the afternoon.
The United States denied any involvement in the attacks, even though previous reports have suggested that Israeli Defense Forces couldn’t destroy Tehran’s nuclear facilities without Washington’s help. US President Donald Trump nonetheless used the opportunity to press Iran into making a deal – the US and Iran were supposed to hold talks in Oman on Sunday, but it’s now unclear whether Iranian officials will attend.
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei pledged a “harsh” response, but their ability to respond has been hindered by Israeli strikes on Iran’s long-range missile facilities and air defenses. The IDF reported on Friday morning that Iran launched 100 drones into Israel, but there were no reports of significant damage.
The strikes mark a seminal moment for Netanyahu. The Israeli leader has long threatened bombing Iran, as he sees this as the only effective method of preventing Tehran from acquiring a nuclear weapon – he doesn’t believe the US nuclear talks can achieve this. Netanyahu never followed through with this threat when former US President Barack Obama was negotiating a nuclear deal with Tehran a decade ago. This time is different: Netanyahu believes Iran is weak – many of their allies in the Middle East are either severely diminished or in exile – so he took his chance.
The strikes went much further than last year’s exchanges, in which Israel bombed the Iranian embassy in Damascus, Syria and Iran responded with a volley of 300 drones and missiles at Israel, which inflicted little visible damage.
Israel’s strikes yesterday didn’t come totally out of the blue. US and European officials warned earlier in the week that Israel was preparing a strike. Washington also evacuated nonessential staff from its embassy in Baghdad, as well as family members of military personnel at its Middle East bases, amid concerns about a widening conflict.
Where does it go from here? We asked Eurasia Group’s Middle East expert Firas Maksad to shed some light on a complex and dangerous situation. The conversation was edited for length and clarity.
Q: How will Iran respond, and what can it do now that some of its military capabilities have been damaged?
- Maksad: “It has to respond forcefully, if only to save face with a domestic audience, which is important for regime stability, but also to have leverage if there is any return to negotiations further down the road. However, its ability to reach Israel and effect significant damage is fairly limited. Its other options – including closure of the Straits of Hormuz, impacting oil prices or attacks against American basing facilities or even energy facilities in the GCC – those are all options that can backfire and provide the United States with enough pretext and reason to join the war.”
Q: Who, if anyone, can help Iran respond?
- Maksad: “Iran will naturally look towards its proxy network in the region in pursuit of its forward defense strategy, essentially having Hezbollah, but also the Houthis and the militias in Iraq, to come to its aid in a response. However, [the ability of these groups to respond] has been greatly diminished as a result of the past 18 months or so of war.”
Q: Will Israel attack more?
- Maksad: “The Israelis have said that this is only the beginning, the opening salvo of a long and sustained military campaign. I believe that to be the case. They can, in fact, inflict significant damage against Iran’s nuclear infrastructure. However, that will require multiple waves of strikes for days and weeks to come, and so I suspect that this will be with us for quite some time.”
Q: Are there any hopes left for a US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Maksad: “Diplomacy is dead for the foreseeable future. It is very unlikely that the Iranian government will return to the negotiating table without at least having attempted a retaliatory strike first, for the purposes of saving face and gathering leverage. This will require some time, particularly as these Israeli strikes are ongoing, and so it is very unlikely, despite President Trump's call for Iran to come back to diplomacy, that the diplomatic off ramp will be Iran’s preferred path forward for weeks to come.”
We also asked Eurasia Group’s Director of Analysis Marc Gustafson whether the United States could be dragged into a regional war.
- Gustafson: “Trump will try to avoid getting involved. Not just because it is risky for the US military, but also because his campaign promise has been to get the US out of foreign wars. This message resonates with his base. That said, the US could get pulled into the conflict. [For example,] if Iran starts attacking US bases within range of Iran’s short-range missiles, Trump will be under considerable pressure to respond militarily.”
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu attends a discussion on the subject of hostages kidnapped during the deadly October 7, 2023 attack, in Israel's parliament, the Knesset, in Jerusalem, November 18, 2024.
What We’re Watching: Bibi on the brink, US-China truce, Elon-Trump detente
Will Israel’s government be dissolved?
The warning signs are flashing for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as the Knesset prepares to vote later today on whether to dissolve his government. The crisis was triggered when a pair of ultra-Orthodox parties in Bibi’s coalition signaled last week they would ditch the coalition over plans to end certain military exemptions. For more on what the collapse of Netanyahu’s government could mean, see here.
US and China reach tariff ceasefire
The United States and China reportedly agreed to a trade truce Wednesday, with US President Donald Trump saying Chinese imports will now face a 55% tariff while Beijing keeps a 10% levy on US products. Importantly, China has restarted its exports of high-tech magnets and rare earth minerals, and the White House reaffirmed Chinese students’ access to US colleges. Still, details of any larger deal covering broader issues of market access and technological competition are far from being ironed out.
Musk v Trump: Is it too late now to say sorry?
Elon Musk appears to be tapping out in his highly-public feud with US President Donald Trump, posting on X (early) this morning that he “regrets” the insults he’s hurled at the president.We’ll be watching to see if the detente holds between these two famously volatile figures. With midterms on the horizon, it matters: Musk’s financial firepower is significant, as we saw here.
For more:Ian Bremmersat down with Semafor Co-Founder and Editor-in-Chief Ben Smith to discuss the Musk-Trump beef and what it tells us about political power in America today.
US President Donald Trump meets with China's President Xi Jinping at the start of their bilateral meeting at the G20 leaders summit in Osaka, Japan, on June 29, 2019.
What We’re Watching: Trump-Xi phone call, Netanyahu’s coalition cracks apart, & More
Trump speaks with Xi
US President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping spoke Thursday for the first time since the former returned to office, as a recent pause in their trade war looked set to fall apart. Both sides recently stepped back from mutual triple-digit tariffs, but Beijing has drawn fire from Trump for restricting the export of rare earths minerals used by the US auto and tech industries. No breakthroughs were announced but Trump described the call as “very positive” and said a summit is in the works.
Netanyahu’s coalition set for divorce
In what could spell the end for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government, two ultra-Orthodox parties that form part of the governing coalition are reportedly set to back the Knesset’s dissolution, in protest against a potential new law that would fine religious university students who skip military service. The dissolution vote will take place on June 11. If United Torah Judaism and Shas, the two dissenting parties, join the opposition in voting to dissolve the government, there will be elections again in Israel.
US institutes new travel ban
Trump on Wednesday barred foreign nationals from 12 countries from entering the United States – including Afghanistan and Haiti – and placed partial restrictions on seven others. The ban is set to take effect on Monday 12:01 EST. The US president linked the new restrictions to Sunday’s terror attack in Colorado against a group of people who were marching in solidarity for the Israeli hostages in Gaza. Trump implemented a similar travel ban during his first term, one that the Supreme Court upheld in 2018.US President Donald Trump talks to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu during a meeting where Trump announced nuclear talks with Iran, in Washington, D.C., USA, on April 7, 2025.
Bibi and Trump beef over Iran plan
Ten years ago, a US president tried to clinch a nuclear deal with Iran while Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu threatened to bomb Tehran’s uranium facilities.
Donald Trump now faces the same issue as his old nemesis Barack Obama: the incumbent president wants a deal with Iran, while the Israeli PM wants to bomb it.
But there’s a key difference this time: unlike in 2015, Netanyahu’s government relies on support from far-right figures who are extremely hawkish on Iran. What’s more, Iran is more vulnerable now – Israel has pummeled Tehran’s key proxies Hamas and Hezbollah (just yesterday Israel killed Hamas’ Gaza leader Mohammad Sinwar (Yahya’s brother), plus the pro-Iran Syrian regime of Bashar al-Assad fell late last year. This time around, Netanyahu’s threats to bomb Iran might be more than just posturing.
Didn’t Trump dismantle the last deal? Yes indeed! Trump exited the Obama-era Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in 2018. Under this plan, Iran had to demolish large parts of its nuclear program, and allow regular inspections of its facilities, in exchange for relief from crippling US and international sanctions on its energy exports and banks. The agreement did, however, allow Iran to continue enriching uranium at low levels until 2030, beyond which the limits were gone.
What’s happened since Trump ditched that deal? Maybe you’ll have guessed it: Iran, whose official position is that its nuclear ambitions are purely for energy, has enriched its uranium up to 60% purity after the US reinstalled the sanctions. Experts warn it is now less than a year away from producing a nuclear bomb.
Enough about the past – give me the update. Much like a decade ago, Bibi is none too happy about the prospect of an US-Iran nuclear deal, as it would strengthen a regime that he’d rather see fall – he views it as an existential threat to Israel.
“Attacking Iran and eliminating the threat of its nuclear program is something that has broad support in the Israeli security establishment and would cement Netanyahu’s status as one of Israel’s great leaders — if he can pull it off,” says Eurasia Group’s Iran expert Greg Brew.
Trump, by contrast, believes Tehran’s weak position makes it the perfect time to cut a deal – the US president said Wednesday that he told Netanyahu not to bomb Iran.
“I told him this would be inappropriate to do right now because we’re very close to a solution,” Trump said, adding that the two sides could reach an agreement in the next two weeks. In reality, per Brew, “a full deal is a long way off.”
But what if Israel strikes Iran? Would the US back them? Safe to say that Trump would be rather miffed if Israel proceeds with its attack plans – his reportedly feisty phone call with Netanyahu on Sunday attests to this. However, Bibi requires US support if he wants to destroy Iran’s nuclear program, so there’s a limit to what he can unilaterally achieve.
If an Israeli attack – with or without US support – prompted an Iranian response, the White House would feel pressure to back its ally, just as it did so when Tehran sent bombs into Israel last year. And if the US gets involved, it would all but kill any hopes of a deal.
American attitudes toward Israel have changed, too. There is something else that has changed since the US and Iran last negotiated a nuclear deal: Americans are much less supportive of Israel. As of March, 46% said they were more sympathetic to Israel amid their war with the Palestinians, the lowest rate in 25 years of polling, and down 16 points from a decade ago. Though the drop in support is sharpest among Democrats, a few hard-right influencers (looking at you, Tucker Carlson) have also questioned America’s support for Israel.
“There’s an outside chance that Trump doesn’t help Bibi but leaves Israel to defend itself against Iranian attack,” says Brew. “This is an immensely risky proposition for Bibi, and one of the reasons why he’s unlikely to attack Iran without first nailing down Trump’s support.”