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Hong Kong Chief Executive John Lee, government officials and lawmakers pose for a group photo, after the Safeguarding National Security Bill, also referred to as Basic Law Article 23, was passed at the Hong Kong’s Legislative Council, in Hong Kong, China March 19, 2024.
Hong Kong passes harsh national security law
Letter of the law. It allows authorities to detain people without charge for up to 16 days, conduct closed-door trials, and ban companies found to be “working for foreign forces.” But the devil is in the (lack of) details: The bill closely imitates Beijing’s state secrets law, with a broad definition of what might constitute theft or espionage.
It also introduces the new offense of “external interference.” Anyone found collaborating with loosely defined “external forces” could face charges.
What does it mean for Hong Kong? Chief Executive John Lee said the law – set to go into effect on Saturday – was necessary to halt unrest and root out “espionage activities.” He said passing it quickly will now allow his government to focus on economic growth, a key concern.
Hong Kong has long been known for an open business climate, but the laissez-faire vibes are fading after the harsh crackdowns on protests that broke out over an extradition law in 2019. Many of the city’s best and brightest have gone abroad, and multinationals worry about the risks of operating under the new rules. Lee bets that a booming economy might put minds at ease.
Hong Kong's new security law ends remaining political independence
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
How will the new security law affect all aspects of life in Hong Kong?
Takes away small remaining vestiges of political independence, none of which people expected were going to be maintained for long. The Chinese government really fast tracked this, which did, you know, antagonize a lot of people on the island. But at the same time, I mean, they're already basically shut down, you know, free Democratic media and made it impossible to engage in demonstrations that were seen as difficult or upsetting to the mainland. I mean, Hong Kong is no longer a bridge into mainland China. It is now a component of a greater Chinese economy. And to the extent that economy starts turning around and doing better, Hong Kong will do well. It's not right now, so it's not performing quite as effectively. And, you know, a lot of the expats have already gotten out of Dodge.
Is Haiti becoming a failed state?
Does look that way. I mean, we certainly don't yet have any significant policing on the ground, nor do we yet have any international peacekeepers. And even if we have them, the historical experience with them has been checkered at best. There's no effective leadership in the country. So interesting, you know, they share an island with a border right down the middle with the Dominican Republic, and the DR is one of the most effective economies in Latin America today. Just goes to show you that governance really, really matters. So painful to see this happening and so close to the United States. American willingness to put a little bit of money in, sure, but to do anything significant to try to create stability. Not at all.
Will Trump's difficulty paying his legal judgments hurt his campaign?
You would think it would, because, you know, historically, the United States has the most expensive and long electoral campaign in the world. And if you don't have money, you're not supposed to run it very effectively. But of course, Trump also is unique in his ability to get just dominate the media cycle for free. He makes headlines and he lives in everybody's head. And in that regard, it's not as important for him to have a huge amount of cash. He's also former president. And, you know, having a former president, a sitting president running against each other, it's not like he's a non incumbent that doesn't have brand recognition. That's also important for him. But at the margins, yeah, I don't think it's as important as, you know, how people feel about abortion or immigration or the economy or democracy. But is it on the top ten? Yeah, probably the top ten, may almost crack top five.
A woman outside the damaged house of her son, who was killed the day before by shelling in Donetsk, Russian-controlled Ukraine.
Hard Numbers: Deadly shelling, drug kingpin's jail security, Lai sighting, Sweden soccer semi, twin takeover
7: Shelling in the southern Ukrainian province of Kherson Ukraine on Sunday killed seven people, including a 23-day-old baby girl. The attack followed denials by Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar that Ukrainian forces had engaged in Russian-occupied territory in the region.
4,000: The Ecuadorian government dispatched 4,000 military and police personnel to the Zonal 8 Detention Center in Guayas province, to “establish control over weapons, ammunition and explosives within the prison.” The jail is home to José Adolfo Macías Villamar, the drug trafficker who murdered presidential candidate Fernando Villavicencio claimed had threatened him prior to his assassination. President Guillermo Lasso this weekend said Macías was relocated to La Roca maximum security prison in the same penitentiary complex.
23: Photos have surfaced of former Hong Kong newspaper publisher Jimmy Lai, the first taken since 2021. They show Lai accompanied by two guards at the maximum security Stanley Prison in Hong Kong, where the pro-democracy activist is kept in solitary confinement for 23 hours each day. Lai was sentenced to more than five years in prison for fraud in 2022, but he is awaiting trial on charges of endangering national security, which could lead to a life sentence.
4: Sweden’s women’s soccer team has advanced to the World Cup semi-final — its fourth big semi in four years. They reached the semi-finals of the 2019 World Cup, the 2020 Olympics, and Euro 2022, but they have yet to take home the crown. To make it to the finals this time, Sweden's women must beat Spain on Tuesday.
17: Must be something in the water. Primary schools in the Scottish town of Inverclyde, population 76,700, are preparing to welcome 17 sets of twins this fall. “Twinverclyde,” as the town has become known, has welcomed 147 sets of twins to its primary schools since 2013, an average of 13 sets a year.
A parade participant in a Winnie the Pooh costume waves a Chinese flag before the Lunar New Year parade in the Chinatown neighborhood of New York, U.S., February 12, 2023.
Hard Numbers: HK cancels Winnie the Pooh, French torch Bordeaux town hall, Indigenous voice for Oz, Darién Gap crossings soar, CAR hearts China/Russia
0: That's how many Hong Kongers can watch the in-theaters-only slasher film “Winnie the Pooh: Blood and Honey,” after the movie’s distributors pulled it from cinemas. The honey-loving bear has been in the crosshairs of Chinese censors since this photo of Xi Jinping and Barack Obama went viral almost a decade ago.
1 million: More than 1 million people took to the streets in France Thursday as part of ongoing protests against President Emmanuel Macron’s recently passed pension reform. Images of protesters setting the Bordeaux town hall on fire likely contributed to King Charles III's decision to postpone a visit to the French capital, long known as the City of Love.
46: PM Anthony Albanese unveiled plans for a referendum to ask Australians if they want to include an Indigenous "Voice" — a formal body to offer advice on laws — for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people in the constitution. If it passes, the change would be Australia's first constitutional amendment in 46 years.
50,000: About 50,000 US-bound migrants crossed the Darién Gap between Colombia and Panama in January and February, five times more than during the same period in 2022. The surge comes just as the Biden administration is trying to discourage asylum-seekers from making the dangerous journey, for instance, by mandating online applications.
200: About 200 people marched through the streets of Bangui, the capital of the Central African Republic, to show their undying love for ... China and Russia. The timing was curious: days earlier, nine Chinese workers were killed in an attack on a mining site, which a local militant group blamed, without evidence, on mercenaries from Russia's Wagner Group.
For background on Putin’s push in the CAR, see here.
British pound banknote is displayed on US Dollar banknotes.
Hard Numbers: Cheaper British pound, India’s Congress Party march, Chilean damage control, convictions of Hong Kong children’s authors
37: Markets are responding negatively to new British PM Liz Truss, with the British pound falling this week to its lowest level against the US dollar in 37 years. Truss is taking the helm this week as the UK grapples with cost-of-living and inflation crises that dwarf those in the EU and the US.
2,218: Rahul Gandhi, the leader of India’s once-prominent Congress Party, will embark on a 2,218-mile cross-country march over five months to connect with locals and try to boost his flailing party’s political prospects. Congress has been crippled by internal dissent in recent years, and many supporters have defected to PM Narendra Modi’s BJP.
5: Chile’s embattled leftist President Gabriel Boric has replaced five cabinet ministers – interior, health, science, energy, and the presidency – with more moderate politicians closer to the center-left. This comes just days after Chileans gave a resounding thumbs down to a proposed new constitution, with many saying that some of the new provisions were too radical.
5:Five producers of children’s books in Hong Kong were convicted Wednesday of sedition, with authorities saying that their cartoons – depicting sheep trying to stave off wolves from a village – constituted a plot against the government. This targeting of the authors, all of whom are speech therapists who now face a couple of years in prison, is the latest attempt by Beijing to quash freedom of expression in Hong Kong.Pedestrians cross the street under flags of the China and Hong Kong.
China's Hong Kong turns 25
On Friday, President Xi Jinping will leave mainland China for the first time in more than two years to mark the 25th anniversary of the UK's handover of Hong Kong to the People's Republic. It's the halfway mark for the "one country, two systems" deal with the Brits for the territory to enjoy (limited) democracy for 50 years. We asked Eurasia Group analyst Neil Thomas to shed some light on why this date is such a big deal for Xi and the future of Hong Kong.
What is the significance of this anniversary?
This July 1 marks 25 years of the UK transferring its sovereignty over Hong Kong to China, following 156 years as a British colony. The territory, which the British Empire forced the Chinese Empire to cede following the Opium War, was a symbol of what the Communist Party calls China’s “century of humiliation” at the hands of foreign powers. To Beijing, Hong Kong’s “return to the motherland” fulfilled part of its aspirations to recover historical territory and restore China’s place in the world, as well as positioning the party as a champion of Chinese nationalism.
What does Xi’s presence tell us?
Advancing the CCP’s control in the territory is enough of a priority for Xi to make his first trip outside mainland China since January 2020, when he visited Myanmar. The spread of COVID-19 in Hong Kong, however, means that Xi is not staying overnight, and all participants in events that he is attending are undergoing quarantine. Xi is likely to deliver a major speech on Hong Kong affairs that will outline a vision for closer political, economic, security, and even military integration with the mainland over the next 25 years, after which all the guarantees Beijing made about respecting Hong Kong’s economic and political systems expire.
What do you expect from Hong Kong’s new chief executive, who’ll be inaugurated on Friday?
John Lee is Beijing’s man. When he visited Beijing for meetings at the end of May, Xi told him that the CCP's Central Committee "fully approves of you and fully trusts you.” Lee’s selection shows that political control remains the Communist Party’s top priority for Hong Kong. He rose through the ranks of the police, before becoming undersecretary and then secretary for security. He played a leading role in the government’s crackdown against a massive pro-democracy movement in 2019 and the June 2020 implementation of Beijing’s draconian security law for the territory. Outgoing chief executive Carrie Lam promoted Lee to Hong Kong’s second-highest office in June 2021.
One of Lee’s top priorities is to enact Hong Kong’s own national security law, as required by the territory’s constitution. This will include crimes covered by Beijing’s law — secession, subversion, terrorism, and collusion with foreign organizations — plus treason, stealing state secrets, and political activities by foreign political organizations. It will further erode political liberties, press freedom, and the rule of law, and is likely to increase scrutiny of foreign individuals, firms, and NGOs with connections to Hong Kong politics. Still, the direct impact will be modest relative to the political earthquake of the 2020 security law and the crushing of Hong Kong’s freedoms.
Lee lacks deep ties with the traditional political and business elite, so he'll probably be an especially loyal servant of China. His leadership will further erode the professionalism that once characterized Hong Kong’s civil service, as Beijing’s policies, practices, and personnel all gain influence. As secretary for security, his protest crackdown helped transform the Hong Kong police from a respected institution to a hated symbol of mainland repression and abuse of power.
How do you expect Hong Kong's relationship with China and the world to evolve in the coming years?
Hong Kong’s decline as a global business hub will continue under Lee’s leadership. He vows to boost Hong Kong’s economy, further internationalize its dollar, and strengthen its role as an offshore center for China's currency, but has said little about how he plans to do it. The vagueness of Lee’s economic statements points to a politician without many policy ideas, especially beyond his background in public security. He'll likely take his cues from Beijing, and prioritize economic integration with the mainland over restoring Hong Kong’s international competitiveness.
Hong Kong’s position as China’s key capital gateway — which should endure for at least the next decade — will support financial stability. But Lee’s lack of economic experience, plus the difficulty of attracting talent to the public service, would be liabilities if Hong Kong faces a shock, such as spillovers from the economic slowdown in China. And policies important to business, from data flows to a free financial media, will increasingly approach those in mainland China, making it harder to retain foreign firms and employees given competition from other financial centers such as Singapore, Tokyo, and Dubai.
Prospects for US-Hong Kong relations are grim. Washington sanctioned Lee for his role in undermining Hong Kong’s autonomy, banning him from entering the US and Americans from doing business with him. The Biden administration may consider additional sanctions against Hong Kong if Lee enacts the homegrown security law, but these would likely be symbolic unless there is a major provocation, such as a bloody crackdown on new protests.
How long can China's zero-COVID policy last?
China's tough pandemic response likely saved a million deaths, but former CDC chief Tom Frieden believes the Chinese have two big problems now.
First, their vaccines don't work, he tells Ian Bremmer on GZERO World. And second, hesitancy rates — especially among the elderly — remain high.
So, what should China do now? Get better vaccines to the most vulnerable, and accept "almost" zero-COVID, like Singapore.
If the Chinese can test cities of more than 10 million people in a few days, Frieden says distributing effective jabs to those who need them "is certainly within their grasp."
Watch the GZERO World episode: How depoliticizing the US health response will save lives (COVID isn't over)
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Police detain a man on the 33rd anniversary of the crackdown on pro-democracy demonstrations at Beijing's Tiananmen Square in 1989, in Hong Kong, China.
Hard Numbers: Hong Kongers arrested, British cucumber shortage, Japan’s dwindling population, deadly blaze in Bangladesh
6:Six Hong Kongers were arrested over the weekend for publicly marking the 33rd anniversary of the Tiananmen Square massacre. Beijing bans commemorating the event on the mainland, but Hong Kong was, until recently, one of a few Chinese territories where it was allowed. That changed in 2020, when Beijing imposed a draconian national security law on the city.
60: The UK could yield up to 60% less in cucumber and sweet pepper crops this year because many glass houses have opted to plant less due to surging energy costs and labor shortages. Even before the pandemic and the war in Ukraine disrupted global supply chains and rocked energy prices, British farmers were struggling with an acute labor shortage linked to Brexit.
628,205: Japan recorded its lowest number of births in more than a century, recording a population decline last year of 628,205, a 3.5% drop from the previous year. This is in part explained by Japan’s aging population: around one third of Japanese residents are over the age of 65.
49: At least 49 people were killed on Sunday and scores more injured when a fire broke out at a storage depot near the port city of Chittagong in southeast Bangladesh. The blaze – believed to have been caused by improperly stored chemicals – is the latest in a deadly spate of similar incidents attributed to the country’s poor safety and labor regulations.