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Hong Kong Chief Executive John Lee, government officials and lawmakers pose for a group photo, after the Safeguarding National Security Bill, also referred to as Basic Law Article 23, was passed at the Hong Kong’s Legislative Council, in Hong Kong, China March 19, 2024.
Hong Kong passes harsh national security law
Letter of the law. It allows authorities to detain people without charge for up to 16 days, conduct closed-door trials, and ban companies found to be “working for foreign forces.” But the devil is in the (lack of) details: The bill closely imitates Beijing’s state secrets law, with a broad definition of what might constitute theft or espionage.
It also introduces the new offense of “external interference.” Anyone found collaborating with loosely defined “external forces” could face charges.
What does it mean for Hong Kong? Chief Executive John Lee said the law – set to go into effect on Saturday – was necessary to halt unrest and root out “espionage activities.” He said passing it quickly will now allow his government to focus on economic growth, a key concern.
Hong Kong has long been known for an open business climate, but the laissez-faire vibes are fading after the harsh crackdowns on protests that broke out over an extradition law in 2019. Many of the city’s best and brightest have gone abroad, and multinationals worry about the risks of operating under the new rules. Lee bets that a booming economy might put minds at ease.
Hong Kong's new security law ends remaining political independence
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
How will the new security law affect all aspects of life in Hong Kong?
Takes away small remaining vestiges of political independence, none of which people expected were going to be maintained for long. The Chinese government really fast tracked this, which did, you know, antagonize a lot of people on the island. But at the same time, I mean, they're already basically shut down, you know, free Democratic media and made it impossible to engage in demonstrations that were seen as difficult or upsetting to the mainland. I mean, Hong Kong is no longer a bridge into mainland China. It is now a component of a greater Chinese economy. And to the extent that economy starts turning around and doing better, Hong Kong will do well. It's not right now, so it's not performing quite as effectively. And, you know, a lot of the expats have already gotten out of Dodge.
Is Haiti becoming a failed state?
Does look that way. I mean, we certainly don't yet have any significant policing on the ground, nor do we yet have any international peacekeepers. And even if we have them, the historical experience with them has been checkered at best. There's no effective leadership in the country. So interesting, you know, they share an island with a border right down the middle with the Dominican Republic, and the DR is one of the most effective economies in Latin America today. Just goes to show you that governance really, really matters. So painful to see this happening and so close to the United States. American willingness to put a little bit of money in, sure, but to do anything significant to try to create stability. Not at all.
Will Trump's difficulty paying his legal judgments hurt his campaign?
You would think it would, because, you know, historically, the United States has the most expensive and long electoral campaign in the world. And if you don't have money, you're not supposed to run it very effectively. But of course, Trump also is unique in his ability to get just dominate the media cycle for free. He makes headlines and he lives in everybody's head. And in that regard, it's not as important for him to have a huge amount of cash. He's also former president. And, you know, having a former president, a sitting president running against each other, it's not like he's a non incumbent that doesn't have brand recognition. That's also important for him. But at the margins, yeah, I don't think it's as important as, you know, how people feel about abortion or immigration or the economy or democracy. But is it on the top ten? Yeah, probably the top ten, may almost crack top five.
Hong Kong a year after the National Security Law; US-UK travel corridor
Ian Bremmer shares his perspective on global politics this week:
A year after the National Security Law, how has Hong Kong changed?
More integrated into mainland China. Virtually no Western companies have pulled out. A fair number of Hong Kong citizens are leaving, and of course no more democratic opposition, no more free media. The full incorporation of Hong Kong into mainland China. One country, one system is happening very fast.
As rebels retake the Tigray capital, Ethiopia declares a ceasefire. Is peace near in Ethiopia's civil war?
Early to say that. It's certainly a promising step. There's been a lot of pressure from the international community, the US and others, sanctions on the Ethiopian government, potential that the IMF program doesn't run forward. That would be a big problem for the Ethiopian economy. So they want to move to a ceasefire, but the Ethiopian Prime Minister, Abiy, is concerned that he doesn't have the military support for maintaining a ceasefire given the tense balance in Tigray. Certainly, with the Eritrean military across the border supporting them, it's going to be hard to keep that in place. But we will see where it goes.
Finally, is the hope of the US-UK travel corridor fading as the Delta variant forces more lockdowns around the world?
I know a lot of Brits want to come here and vice versa. I don't think so. Definitely the lockdowns are continuing through mid-July at the least in the UK, but again, the United States and UK have been some of the fastest in the world in terms of getting the entire population vaccinated. Yes, there are holdouts. Yes, there's anti-vax sentiment, but ultimately just as we're feeling like life is getting back to normal, that international transit between the advanced industrial economies is picking up soon. I'd be stunned if by the end of the summer we aren't traveling back and forth between the US and UK. Once again, special relationship, even post-Brexit.
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Hong Kong and Chinese national flags are flown behind a pair of surveillance cameras outside the Central Government Offices in Hong Kong, China July 20, 2020.
What We’re Watching: Hong Kong a year later, Brazilian troops in the Amazon, Mexico’s marijuana moves
RIP Hong Kong as we knew it: Exactly a year ago on Wednesday, China imposed a draconian new national security law on Hong Kong. The measure gives Chinese authorities broad leeway to punish political dissent. It came in response to a massive pro-democracy movement on the semi-autonomous island that was touched off by Beijing's attempt to subject Hong Kongers to the jurisdiction of courts in mainland China, where the judicial system is more politicized. Since the new security law went into effect last summer, almost all vestiges of Hong Kong's once-vibrant civil society and relative political openness have been snuffed out. Opposition leaders have been jailed, pro-democracy lawmakers sidelined, and the free press largely shuttered. Meanwhile the US has revoked preferential trade and investment ties with Hong Kong, a number of European countries have cut extradition agreements, and most (but not all) countries around the world have condemned China's policy. And yet, from the perspective of Chinese President Xi Jinping, this is all arguably a win. He has suppressed one of the biggest popular challenges to China's authority in recent years, and made real the idea that there is only one system of government in China: his.
Brazil sends troops to the Amazon: Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro has sent soldiers to the Amazon in order to stop illegal deforestation. This is the third time that Bolsonaro, whose enthusiasm for economic development of the rainforest has contributed to a surge in deforestation since he came to power in 2018, has sent soldiers to enforce environmental laws there. But conservationists and climate activists say that these missions have been poorly equipped and ineffective, providing the appearance of action without really reining in deforestation. As climate change returns to the international policy agenda, Bolsonaro has come under intense international pressure in recent months to do more to protect the Amazon, which is one of the world's most effective "carbon sinks" — a resource that removes greenhouse gasses from the atmosphere. Bolsonaro has bristled at what he and his supporters see as high-handed international meddling in Brazil's domestic affairs.
Mexico to legalize weed: The Brazilians may be trying to stop the burning, but Mexico is gearing up for some smoking. The country's Supreme Court on Monday struck down laws that criminalize the recreational use and cultivation of cannabis. It's a big step towards full legalization, which could make Mexico the world's largest legal cannabis market. Supporters say that would create jobs and, at the margin, undercut the power of drug cartels. But there are still legal hurdles, the most important of which is a legalization bill that was passed by the House but languishes in the Senate. That's in part because polls show nearly 60 percent of Mexicans oppose legalization. And with the cartels focused on more lucrative harder drugs like cocaine and opioids now, legalizing weed isn't likely to hurt them much. Even some pro-legalization activists say the bill doesn't do enough to create security and economic opportunity for farmers who could profit from growing cannabis. Will the Supreme Court ruling spark some fresh momentum in the Mexican Congress?