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The US vs TikTok (and China)
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
Four years since the US declared COVID a national emergency, how did it permanently reshape the world?
Well, a couple of things. First, it meant that US-China relations got worse, not better. The World Health Organization, the one global organization meant to deal with pandemics, got delegitimized. This was not a crisis that led to greater cooperation. It led to greater mistrust and greater polarization, in part because it wasn't a big enough crisis. Thankfully, we had vaccines really fast, and it also turned out that COVID really affected mostly the super elderly and those with serious preexisting conditions. All of that allowed the geopolitical rifts that already exist to get worse. One good thing, aside from the fact that technology really works, is that the Europeans got stronger on the back of this crisis. They now have more coordinated capabilities to respond to health crises than they did before the pandemic hit. And that has been the EU response to a lot of crises recently, Brexit, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, you name it.
As the US House goes after TikTok, does it speak to a broader US-China battle?
Well, it speaks to significant mistrust between the two countries. Espionage by the Chinese against the United States, by the way, that goes both ways of course. The Americans just aren't concerned about US espionage into China. Also, the fact that the Chinese don't allow Western social media companies to have access to the Chinese population and data. So no one should be all that surprised that the Americans are interested in forcing ByteDance to spin off TikTok. Having said that, the Chinese are pretty unhappy about it and have said that they're not going to spin it off. We'll see if their bark is equivalent to their bite. Assuming this passes in short order in House and Senate. Biden has said that he would sign it and then there's the broader question of does it undermine what has been a pretty strong effort by both the Americans and Chinese to communicate more thoroughly in the relationship and stabilize the baseline so that we don't have conflict that scales out of control and that has worked reasonably well since the APEC summit back in San Francisco in November? But that doesn't mean it will hold if the Americans start throwing more punches. On balance, I think forcing China to spin off TikTok is a reasonable thing for the Americans to do, but it will be one more straw on the camel's back. Let's see what happens in terms of Chinese response.
Finally, Princess Kate and the photoshop-fail heard around the world!
Big deal? Well, look, I mean, I am someone, as you know, that tries to keep a much lower profile than Princess Kate. So I don't like to necessarily share all the things that I'm doing around the world. But, I mean, you know, given everyone focusing on Kate's photo, I will share that in the last few days, I was there with Sweden, of course, and the prime minister, who I know well when they formally joined NATO. There was, of course, also the State of the Union, which, you know, I was doing live commentary on and right there from the gallery. But you probably are surprised that I was also right behind the scenes at the Oscars. I don't usually show for that. And it's not because I don't wear a tie, but they gave me dispensation. And also let me bring Moose, which is very important. Don't fall asleep on Princess Kate, right? I mean, you know, she has a hard enough time and she's got to distract away from King Charles. We don't know what's going on with him either. We don't really care. At least I don't.
- Sen. Mitt Romney on TikTok: Shut it down ›
- The Graphic Truth: The world's other royals ›
- Monarchies that matter ›
- China's COVID lockdowns made its people depressed and hurt its economy ›
- Should Putin get a Nobel in Medicine for ending talk of COVID? ›
- TikTok "boom"! Could the US ban the app? ›
- Graphic Truth: The world is crazy for TikTok ›
- TikTok is the ultimate propaganda tool, says tech expert Scott Galloway ›
Ian Bremmer: Zero COVID no longer works, and China will pay a price
For Ian Bremmer, China has the strongest political governance of any major economy today. Sometime that's good, and has allowed China to become the world's second largest economy.
But there's also a downside we're going to see this year, Bremmer said during a livestream conversation to launch Eurasia Group's annual Top Risks report. China's zero-COVID policy, which worked incredibly well in 2020 to respond to the pandemic, no longer works because the virus has changed.
However, Xi Jinping is so invested in his strategy that he'll likely double down on it in 2022 — at the expense of more shutdowns and closures in global supply chains. Xi himself has not left the country since January 2020 — hampering China's own diplomatic ability.
"China cannot move towards living with the virus" until it has its own mRNA vaccines — and that means it'll be a very tough year for the country, and its leader.
Watch the full discussion on Top Risks 2022.
- China’s pandemic playbook will fail with Omicron: Laura Yasaitis - GZERO Media ›
- What is China's zero COVID policy? - GZERO Media ›
- How China decides to handle omicron will have global implications – Yanzhong Huang - GZERO Media ›
- Eastern European leaders visit Kyiv in unprecedented show of support - GZERO Media ›
- Ian Bremmer: power of the "Goldilocks crisis" - GZERO Media ›
- COVID protests spread in China - GZERO Media ›
- Ian Bremmer: A political power vacuum is bad news for the world - GZERO Media ›
- Xi Jinping's zero-COVID reversal | - GZERO Media ›
- The problem with China’s Zero COVID strategy | GZERO World Podcast - GZERO Media ›
Omicron variant unlikely to lead to lockdowns by governments
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week with a look at the omicron variant, the Honduras presidential election, and the pros and cons of getting stuck in a UK pub for three days in a snowstorm.
As the omicron variant emerges, is a return to lockdown next?
The answer is, only in a few play places, because people are exhausted from lockdowns. They're angry with their governments from doing it. Governments are going to be very reluctant to have the economic hit as a consequence, especially when they know they can't pay out the relief money that they've been paying over the last couple of years, and they're not yet sure about just how much of a danger omicron is. I think all sorts of travel restrictions, but unless and until you see that the spread starts leading to significant lethality, hospitalizations, and once again, the potential for ICUs to be overwhelmed, I do not expect many significant lockdowns that are countrywide at this point. Not least in Sub-Saharan Africa, where the populations are very young and as a consequence, you can have a lot of spread and they're not paying attention to it, frankly.
Will the Honduras presidential election have wider regional implications?
Just had this election. It looks like the first female president ever they're going to see win, Xiomara Castro, who is up by some 20 points. They are still saying, fake news, and they're challenging, they're contesting it. The big issue is what happens with immigration, and will this government be willing to work more closely with the Mexicans, with the Biden administration? Because after Mexico, the largest number of illegal immigrants picked up going across the wall, coming from Honduras to the United States. That's a big issue. Of all the countries in the region, El Salvador has been a disaster to work with. Guatemala has been a little easier. Honduras has been in between. Really, really tough to get enough support on the ground that you can try to limit what is enormously dangerous country and people just trying to get the hell out.
A snowstorm left dozens stuck in a pub for three days in the UK. Good time or great time?
Well, I don't know. I mean, most people I know in the UK would say getting stuck in a pub for a few days is an awesome time in the snow. You're not going to do anything anyway. It's not like you're working. You can work digitally, I know everybody's got their phones, so if they need to, they can, right? Who knows if they actually had streaming services at the pub. Apparently it was this Oasis tribute band. What could be better than that? Your wonderwall of snow. I don't know. I'm glad it wasn't me.
- Key questions about the omicron variant - GZERO Media ›
- Don't jump out the omicron window - GZERO Media ›
- Bukele's Bitcoin gamble in El Salvador - GZERO Media ›
- What We're Watching: Honduras bracing for post election upheavals ... ›
- Biden and Putin hold virtual meeting as US-Russia tensions increase - GZERO Media ›
- Omicron will be home for Christmas - GZERO Media ›
- Omicron will be home for Christmas - GZERO Media ›
The Graphic Truth: Perceptions of COVID
Where do people think the pandemic is mostly contained where they live and that life will soon return to normal? A recent Ipsos survey takes a look at people's perceptions in more than two dozen countries. Saudis, Indians, and Malaysians top the list of optimists, while most Europeans aren't quite sure, and things seem particularly grim in Canada, where just a quarter of those polled feel that the pandemic is behind them. But do these perceptions have anything to do with the current state of daily cases? We crossed that specific data point with the Ipsos poll's findings and, well, have a look. It seems factors beyond actual cases may play a bigger role in how people feel about the pandemic.
What We're Watching: Anti-lockdown protests turn violent in Europe
Europe anti-lockdown protests get violent. Pockets of unrest spread across Europe in recent days as tens of thousands gathered in several cities across the continent to protest government measures aimed at curbing a fast-spreading wave of COVID-19. Violent clashes broke out between demonstrators and police in The Hague and Rotterdam where Dutch cops opened fire at an increasingly aggressive crowd protesting the tightening of restrictions. Meanwhile, more that 35,000 people turned out in Brussels, while large crowds rocked Vienna, protesting fresh lockdowns that initially targeted only the unvaccinated, as well as new vaccine mandates. The state of the pandemic in Europe is not good. Germany recorded more than 48,000 new cases Sunday, the highest on record, prompting new lockdowns in the lead-up to Christmas, while deaths across the continent are also rising since the summer months, though they remain well below pre-vaccine levels. What's more, far-right groups, like Austria's Freedom Party, are taking advantage of COVID fatigue and anti-vaxx sentiment to encourage people to defy government rules and sow chaos.
Why pandemic was "perfect storm" for violence against women: Dr. Okito Wedi
Gender-based violence tends to jump in any emergency situation, and the pandemic was no different. During COVID-related lockdowns around the world, Creative Development CEO Dr. Okito Vanessa Wedi says the home was no safe space for women. "Preexisting toxic social norms, together with actually being in a pandemic, losses of jobs, anxiety about the future [and] the restriction of movement" all created a "perfect storm" that turned partners into abusers.
She spoke during "Measuring what matters: How women are critical to pandemic recovery," a livestream conversation on October 28, 2021, hosted by GZERO Media in partnership with the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Minouche Shafik: Keeping talented women working is good for the economy
More women are now going to college than men, but much of that talent later goes to waste. Why? For London School of Economics Director Minouche Shafik, the problem is that we don't have systems in place to retain talented women in the workforce in crisis situations like the pandemic, when so many women had to quit their jobs and stay home to take care of their kids. "The talent of all of those women is a huge potential economic gain to our societies," she explains, so we need to find a way to better match them to (remote) jobs that suit their skills. "This is not just about inequality story; this is really an economic efficiency story as well."
She spoke during "Measuring what matters: How women are critical to pandemic recovery," a livestream conversation on October 28, 2021, hosted by GZERO Media in partnership with the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
"Women fell between the cracks" during COVID — former UN Women chief
During the pandemic, former UN Women chief Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka says many women were "caught up in the crossfire that is not of their own making," accounting for two-thirds of jobs lost due to COVID. What's more, she adds, women forced into the informal job market to make ends meet had a hard time returning to formal jobs once lockdowns ended. And since government incentives didn't target them enough, "women fell between the cracks."
She spoke during "Measuring what matters: How women are critical to pandemic recovery," a livestream conversation on October 28, 2021, hosted by GZERO Media in partnership with the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.