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A look back at “Top Risks 2022”

Every January, Eurasia Group, our parent company, produces a report with its forecast for the Top 10 Risks for the world in the year ahead. Its authors are EG President Ian Bremmer and EG Chairman Cliff Kupchan.

Next Tuesday morning, the 2023 report will drop, and we’ll let you know what’s in it. But today, we’ll look back at EG’s predictions for 2022. What did Bremmer and Kupchan nail, and where were they wrong?

Disclaimer: Your Signal author has contributed to these Top Risks reports for the past 18 years.

A year ago, these were EG’s Top 10 risks…

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China vs COVID in 2022 | GZERO World

China vs COVID in 2022

Omicron has arrived. It's more contagious, but less severe. Some parts of the world are even looking forward to the pandemic becoming endemic.

Not China. Xi Jinping's zero-COVID strategy has worked wonders until now, but it's unlikely to survive omicron, explains Ian Bremmer on GZERO World.

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The Technopolar World: A New Dimension of Geopolitics | Top Risks 2022 | GZERO Media

The technopolar world: A new dimension of geopolitics — Kevin Allison

Kevin Allison, director of geotech at Eurasia Group, is concerned about the rise of very powerful tech companies disrupting centuries of geopolitics led by the nation-state.

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Podcast: The problem with China’s Zero COVID strategy

Listen: Xi Jinping's zero-COVID approach faces its toughest test to date with omicron. Why? Because China lacks mRNA jabs, and so few Chinese people have gotten COVID that overall protection is very low. A wave of lockdowns could disrupt the world's second-largest economy — just a month out from the Beijing Winter Olympics.

That could spell disaster for Beijing, Yanzhong Huang, senior fellow for global health at the Council on Foreign Relations, tells Ian Bremmer on the GZERO World podcast. If things get really bad, though, Huang believes China will pivot to living with the virus, especially as the cost of keeping zero COVID in the age of omicron becomes too high.

Subscribe to the GZERO World Podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, or your preferred podcast platform to receive new episodes as soon as they're published.

Angela Hofmann: Corporations Losing The Culture Wars | Top Risks 2022 | GZERO Media

Corporations losing the culture wars — Angela Hofmann

For Angela Hofmann, practice head for Industrial & Consumer at Eurasia Group, the world's most visible brands are in for a very rocky year.

Navigating culture wars will be very tricky, as well as fighting with competing demands from consumers, employees, and regulators on issues like China, diversity, and voting rights.

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What Is China’s Zero-COVID Policy? | GZERO World with Ian Bremmer

What is China’s zero-COVID policy?

We've all heard about there being zero COVID in China. But there's more to Beijing's pandemic containment strategy, which started immediately after the initial Wuhan outbreak.

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Annie Gugliotta & Jess Frampton

Iran’s nuclear program runs hotter

Talks between Iran’s government and world powers over the future of Iran’s nuclear program continue. The US and Iran are still not communicating directly; Britain, China, France, Germany, and Russia are shuttling between them.

The good news is that they’re all still talking. The bad news is that, after eight rounds of negotiations, the main players haven’t agreed on anything that would constitute a breakthrough.

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Annie Gugliotta & Jess Frampton

(Some of) your 2022 Top Risks questions, answered

This week, our parent company Eurasia Group published its annual list of top geopolitical risks for 2022, which we hosted a livestream conversation about on Monday. During the program we received many great questions from our viewers, but couldn’t answer them all in the time allotted, so we thought we’d have some Eurasia Group experts tackle them here.

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