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Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and US President Joe Biden.
A US-Iran (prisoner) deal moves forward
On Monday, the Biden administration informed Congress that it had issued a waiver that will allow South Korean banks to transfer $6 billion in Iranian funds frozen by sanctions to Qatar’s Central Bank. (South Korea is one of the biggest purchasers of Iranian oil.) Qatar will then make the funds available to Iran for what the White House insists are humanitarian purposes like the purchase of food and medicine. Iran will free five detained US citizens, and Washington will release five Iranians detained in the US.
The deal is predictably controversial. The Biden team says it marks a breakthrough in US-Iran relations that could lead to important progress in other areas, including Iran’s nuclear program, and that the $6 billion comes not from US taxpayers but from Iran’s own frozen financial reserves. Republicans say President Biden is buying hostages, which rewards criminal behavior and encourages more hostage-taking.
The White House says Qatar will control and disburse the funds to ensure they are used only for the benefit of Iran’s people in accordance with US sanctions. But Iran’s President Raisi said Monday that only the Iranian government can determine what the Iranian people need, and that Iran will spend the $6 billion “wherever we need it.”
It remains unclear when the deal will be executed and the prisoners allowed to leave, but some speculate that it could be next week when both US President Joe Biden and Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi attend the UN General Assembly in New York.
US president Joe Biden
The US and Iran make a deal
By itself, this deal is a significant breakthrough, given the US-Iranian frictions of recent years. But there’s a follow-up question: Is that it? Is this a one-off humanitarian gesture that gives each side something it wants? Or is this the first move in a warming of relations? Cash-strapped Iran wants access to all its frozen assets, and the Biden administration would love to improve relations with its main Middle East antagonist – and to give Iran a reason to cool its relations with Russia.
Could this deal even signal progress toward a return to the Iran nuclear deal? We may know the answer later this month when UN nuclear inspectors issue their latest report on Iran’s uranium enrichment progress.
A new hypersonic ballistic missile called "Fattah" with a range of 1400 km, unveiled by Iran, is seen in Tehran.
Iran unveils hypersonic missile
The Islamic Republic of Iran claims to have developed its first hypersonic missile. At a showy military ceremony usually reserved for North Korean and Russian despots, President Ebrahim Raisi said that the new weapon proved that Iran’s “deterrent power has been formed.”
Crucially, the Iranians claim that the mid-range weapon capable of striking Gulf states can fly at 15 times the speed of sound. For context, a weapon is defined as hypersonic if it travels at between 5-25 times the speed of sound.
Tehran claims that no missile defense system can intercept its new weapon – dubbed Fattah, meaning “conqueror” in Farsi – but that depends on a range of factors, including the missile’s maneuverability. Many Gulf states use the Patriot missile defense system that are apt at targeting ballistic missiles on an unmoving trajectory. Israel, for its part, also has its own suite of missile defenses for these types of weapons.
To be sure, Iranian officials showed no proof on Tuesday that Fattah had been successfully fired, and they’ve claimed in the past to have had a similar weapon that hasn’t yet materialized.
The US and China are reportedly working on their own hypersonic arsenals, though Russia appears to already have developed them. (Ukraine, for its part, claimed in May to have shot them down with a Western-delivered Patriot battery.)
The timing of this grand reveal – that will put the US, Israel, and Gulf states on edge – is strange, coinciding with Iran reopening its diplomatic mission in Saudi Arabia after a years-long feud.
Iran getting the bomb? Not as close as you might think
The 2015 Iran nuclear deal is pretty much dead in the water right now. And perhaps the train has already left the station because Tehran is too close to enriching enough uranium to get the bomb.
So, is it too late?
“Having the nuclear material does not mean [that] automatically that you have a nuclear weapon,” International Atomic Energy Agency chief Rafael Grossi tells Ian Bremmer on GZERO World. Still, Grossi would like more cooperation from the Iranians.
The IEAE, he says, "wants to provide the diplomatic, technically neutral platform for a good understanding. I hope this message is heard in Tehran.”
Watch the GZERO World episode: Rogue states gone nuclear and the watchdog working to avert disaster
Rogue states gone nuclear and the watchdog working to avert disaster
What keeps the head of the UN's nuclear watchdog up at night? It's not only Vladimir Putin threatening to use a tactical nuke in Ukraine.
Weeks ago, International Atomic Energy Agency chief Rafael Grossi witnessed first-hand how close we came to another Chernobyl disaster thanks to fighting near the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in southern Ukraine. And then there's Iran, on the cusp of getting the bomb, and North Korea, a rogue state amassing an entire arsenal of nukes.
On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer asks Grossi about the world's nuclear threats and what the IAEA is doing about them. Grossi views himself as a mediator — if leaders are willing to listen to him.
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Podcast: Nobody wins in nuclear Armageddon: Rafael Grossi's plan to keep us safe in time of war
Listen: What keeps the world’s top nuclear watchdog up at night? It's not only Vladimir Putin threatening to use a tactical nuke in Ukraine. On the GZERO World podcast, Rafael Grossi, Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency, joins Ian Bremmer to discuss the most imminent nuclear threats. He discusses his recent trip to an embattled Ukrainian nuclear power plant, the path forward for Iran after a scuttled deal, and how to keep North Korea in check, a rogue state amassing an entire arsenal of nukes.
Subscribe to the GZERO World Podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, or your preferred podcast platform, to receive new episodes as soon as they're published.
Iranian activists want the West to stop legitimizing Iran's regime
French President Emmanuel Macron recently got flak for shaking the hand of Iran's President Ebrahim Raisi. In part to smooth things over, Macron agreed to meet with dissidents — including journalist and activist Masih Alinejad.
Her message to him and the West in general? Recall your ambassadors from Iran and don't return to the 2015 nuclear deal.
"The only thing can make [the regime] survive [is] the US government and its allies to get back to the deal," Alinejad tells Ian Bremmer on GZERO World.
And let Iranian's take care of the regime change.
"We, the people of Iran, are doing this and I want them to recognize this revolution and stop legitimizing one of the most barbaric regime," she says. "Is that too much to ask?"
Watch the GZERO World episode: Iran v. the Islamic Republic: Fighting Iran’s gender apartheid regime
Iran v. the Islamic Republic: Fighting Iran’s gender apartheid regime
Woman, life, freedom. Those three words have filled the streets of Iran since the ongoing women-led protests against the regime, the biggest since 2009, began last September.
How did Iranian women get here? How has the theocracy responded so far? And what might come next?
On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer speaks to Iranian journalist and activist Masih Alinejad, a sworn enemy of the Supreme Leader; it's widely believed that Iranian spies have tried to kidnap and assassinate her here in New York.
From Alinejad's perspective, the regime is afraid like never before because the protests have achieved unity among Iranians for the first time. And many even cheered the national soccer team's elimination at the World Cup because some players were seen as puppets of the regime.
Her message to the West: If you want to help, don't go back to the 2015 nuclear deal and let Iranians bring about regime change on their own.
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