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US President Joe Biden waits to welcome President William Ruto of Kenya to the White House in Washington on May 22, 2024.
It’s Biden’s economy, stupid
The United States is plagued with a “vibecession” — where confidence in the economy is at stark odds with the actual data.
A new Harris poll forThe Guardian shows nearly three in five Americans believe the economy is shrinking and in recession. Nearly half of those polled also believe US unemployment is at a 50-year high.
But none of that is true.
So why the disconnect?
Much of the bad vibes are lingering from America’s post-COVID economic recovery. The US generally bounced backbetter than its peers, but inflation is still squeezing average Americans while the Federal Reserve is keeping interest rates high. Even if the stock market and GDP reachnewheights, so is Americans’ cost of living — and at a time when it costs more to borrow.
Another vibecession culprit: politics, baby. OneYouGov poll shows the percentage of Republican respondents who thought the economy was improving dropped from 64% in November 2020 to 6% after Biden’s inauguration in January 2021. Unsurprisingly, Democrats’ views on the economy also shot way up after Biden took office, without much changing economically.
If Americans’ perceptions of the economy are deeply entrenched with their political affiliation, is there anything Biden can do ahead of November’s election? His administration is working to bring downgas prices and slashstudent debt. But as long as prices and interest rates stay high, he may have a hard time swaying voters’ historically low confidence in his ability to do the right thing for the economy.FILE PHOTO: Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem takes part in a news conference after announcing an interest rate decision in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada April 12, 2023.
No rate cut just yet
The Bank of Canada held interest rates steady at 5% for the fourth time in a row on Wednesday, signaling that cuts may be coming, as analysts expect, in the spring. The bank is now focused on “how long it needs to stay at the current level,” Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem said.
In the United States, investors are waiting to see what the Fed does next week when policymakers meet. Some investors have warned that a hot stock market could cause the Federal Reserve to keep rates higher for longer than expected.
Both Joe Biden and Justin Trudeau will be hoping that inflation continues to slow, stabilizing consumer prices and allowing central bankers in both countries to stop restricting the supply of money before voters go to the polls again.
Will consumers ever trust AI? Regulations and guardrails are key
Would you launch a product 52% of people said they feared would negatively impact their life?
If you answered no, you aren’t in the AI business. A recent Pew poll shows more than half of Americans describe themselves as more pessimistic than optimistic about artificial intelligence’s impact on their daily lives.
But the incredible potential of AI technology and its ease of proliferation means it’s coming, ready or not. The challenge to tech companies, governments, and civil society is standing up guardrails and regulations that will nudge public opinion toward widespread trust.
Former New Zealand Prime Minister Dame Jacinda Ardern, Microsoft Vice Chair and President Brad Smith and Eurasia Group President Ian Bremmer sat down to discuss the problem and its geopolitical implications in a recent Global Stage livestream, from the sidelines of the 78th UN General Assembly.
Watch the full Global Stage Livestream conversation here: Hearing the Christchurch Call
Corporations losing the culture wars — Angela Hofmann
For Angela Hofmann, practice head for Industrial & Consumer at Eurasia Group, the world's most visible brands are in for a very rocky year.
Navigating culture wars will be very tricky, as well as fighting with competing demands from consumers, employees, and regulators on issues like China, diversity, and voting rights.
Consumers, empowered by social media, are using their voices and purchasing power to influence non-market issues, with a focus on supply chains.
These consumers are forcing multinationals to have visibility and accountability for all of their levels of production.
Firms face be a double-edged sword: fury from hyper-charged consumers utilizing social media, and pressure from US regulators.
Hofmann says companies must focus on ESG "with a particular focus on that S."
“Reinventing supply chains and investing in compliance issues, but with the expectations from the public and new regulations on the way, there's just simply no going back."
Watch the full discussion here: https://www.gzeromedia.com/events/top-risks-2022-w...