The United States is plagued with a “vibecession” — where confidence in the economy is at stark odds with the actual data.
A new Harris poll for The Guardian shows nearly three in five Americans believe the economy is shrinking and in recession. Nearly half of those polled also believe US unemployment is at a 50-year high.
But none of that is true.
So why the disconnect?
Much of the bad vibes are lingering from America’s post-COVID economic recovery. The US generally bounced back better than its peers, but inflation is still squeezing average Americans while the Federal Reserve is keeping interest rates high. Even if the stock market and GDP reach new heights, so is Americans’ cost of living — and at a time when it costs more to borrow.
Another vibecession culprit: politics, baby. One YouGov poll shows the percentage of Republican respondents who thought the economy was improving dropped from 64% in November 2020 to 6% after Biden’s inauguration in January 2021. Unsurprisingly, Democrats’ views on the economy also shot way up after Biden took office, without much changing economically.
If Americans’ perceptions of the economy are deeply entrenched with their political affiliation, is there anything Biden can do ahead of November’s election? His administration is working to bring down gas prices and slash student debt. But as long as prices and interest rates stay high, he may have a hard time swaying voters’ historically low confidence in his ability to do the right thing for the economy.
