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Public Health nurse Lauri Bidinot demonstrates how to give a measles shot to a young girl at Southwestern Public Health in St. Thomas, Ontario, on Tuesday, March 4, 2025.
HARD NUMBERS: Measles on the rise, Tariffs drive steel layoffs, US consumer confidence drops, Tesla targeting investigated
100,000: US President Donald Trump’s 25% steel and aluminum tariffs, in place since March 12, have triggered hundreds of layoffs in Canada in the metal workers sector, with more expected to come. Marty Warren, national director of the United Steelworkers, says that 100,000 jobs are at risk for the union’s 225,000 members after “full-blown” tariffs hit on April 2.
92.9: The Conference Board’s US consumer confidence index fell 7.2 points in March to 92.9, short of its expected reading of 94.5 and its lowest level since January of 2021. Americans’ short-term expectations for income, business, and employment also plunged 9.6 points to 65.2, the lowest reading in 12 years and well below the threshold of 80, considered an indicator of a possible recession.
1,000: Police in Washington, DC, are offering a $1,000 reward for information about the recent defacing of Tesla vehicles in the city. A police statement also indicated that they are “investigating these offenses as potentially being motivated by hate or bias,” which is a broader category in DC than in most cities: “Political affiliation” is listed alongside race, sex, and religion as categories of bias for hate crimes and carries higher penalties than other crimes.US President Joe Biden waits to welcome President William Ruto of Kenya to the White House in Washington on May 22, 2024.
It’s Biden’s economy, stupid
The United States is plagued with a “vibecession” — where confidence in the economy is at stark odds with the actual data.
A new Harris poll for The Guardian shows nearly three in five Americans believe the economy is shrinking and in recession. Nearly half of those polled also believe US unemployment is at a 50-year high.
But none of that is true.
So why the disconnect?
Much of the bad vibes are lingering from America’s post-COVID economic recovery. The US generally bounced back better than its peers, but inflation is still squeezing average Americans while the Federal Reserve is keeping interest rates high. Even if the stock market and GDP reach new heights, so is Americans’ cost of living — and at a time when it costs more to borrow.
Another vibecession culprit: politics, baby. One YouGov poll shows the percentage of Republican respondents who thought the economy was improving dropped from 64% in November 2020 to 6% after Biden’s inauguration in January 2021. Unsurprisingly, Democrats’ views on the economy also shot way up after Biden took office, without much changing economically.
If Americans’ perceptions of the economy are deeply entrenched with their political affiliation, is there anything Biden can do ahead of November’s election? His administration is working to bring down gas prices and slash student debt. But as long as prices and interest rates stay high, he may have a hard time swaying voters’ historically low confidence in his ability to do the right thing for the economy.