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More Russia-NATO confrontation ahead in Ukraine war
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
With the US speeding up military aid to Ukraine, can the West coax an end to the war soon?
I don't think so and I'm not sure that's related to how much military aid the West is providing Ukraine. I do think we're getting closer to a frozen conflict because the Russians aren't doing a general mobilization. It'd be very unpopular in Russia for Putin to manage that, which means that their forces are nearly spent. They can't take more territory than the Donbas max with what they have right now. So beyond that and the Ukrainians with some counter offensives, which also will be pretty limited as we're starting to see happening in Kherson in the south, that's probably where we are for the coming months, but that's freezing the conflict near term. That's not an end to the war. That's not, the Russians and Ukrainians are happy with where they are, that you get ceasefire negotiations that could create peace, especially with the Russians likely annexing part of Ukraine. This is I think a war for the duration for a much longer period of time. It's also confrontation between Russia and NATO that so far hasn't been very sharp, but is likely to play out more sharply over time with disinformation attacks and espionage and cyber and all the rest.
Is China still planning years of zero-COVID strategy?
Maybe not years, but definitely a year. I think until the Chinese government is able to get their elderly population near fully vaccinated, they're not close to that yet, and or get therapeutics that work at scale, they need zero-COVID. And let's keep in mind that this disease, this virus is still morphing. It's making it much harder for new vaccines to be developed in the West. China's vaccines aren't as effective. And of course there's always the possibility that a new variant shows up that is more lethal than what we've had through the Omicron variants. And that would be incredibly dangerous for China and would make them maintain zero-COVID for much longer. So in the worst case scenarios, they're going to need zero-COVID until the variants become something that everyone can deal with in China. We're not close to that. And in the best case scenario, we're still talking about probably another six months minimum of zero-COVID that's going to be rolling across cities around the country. So that's what I see right now. And I absolutely believe the Chinese are fully planning on that.
And then will the global food crisis get political?
Yeah, I think it's interesting. Right now it's political in the sense that a lot of the developing countries are blaming the West for not caring about them, refusing equitable redistribution through the pandemic and through the Russia war and as a consequence, focusing more on how they can take care of themselves, which means more protectionism. But that protectionism is of course political. It is willingness to accept lack of efficiency and not getting the best price to ensure that your population is fed, that your population is taken care of. And I think going forward, there's going to be a lot more of that. It'll be interesting to see whether or not the developing world is equally angry at the West for this as they are with the Chinese for lots of investments on the ground in their countries to get access to food for the Chinese population. Because of course they're significant importers too. And in places like Sub-Saharan Africa, the Chinese are writing all the big checks, but they're also the ones taking out a lot of the resources in a way that the Europeans and the Americans were 50 years ago and that led to a lot of backlash against the advanced industrial democracy. So we'll watch how all that plays out, but certainly the food crisis is a deeply political crisis.
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Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orban and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen during their meeting in Budapest.
What We're Watching: Hungarian holdout, hope in Shanghai, US troops return to Somalia
Is Hungary holding the EU “hostage”?
The European Commission is pushing hard for a bloc-wide ban on Russian oil imports. But one member state — Hungary — has gone rogue and is holding up the embargo. At a meeting of EU foreign ministers on Monday, Lithuania’s representative accused Hungary of holding the bloc “hostage,” after PM Viktor Orbán demanded that Brussels dole out hundreds of millions of dollars to offset losses from moving away from cheap Russian fossil fuels. Orbán is buddies with Vladimir Putin and has been trying to expand Hungary’s economic relationship with the Kremlin in recent months, so he is driving a hard bargain, saying that ditching Russian oil would be an “atomic bomb” for his country’s economy. Landlocked Hungary relies on Russia for around 45% of its total oil imports, and finding alternative sources could lead to shortages and price hikes at a time when Hungarians are already grappling with sky-high inflation. Still, Brussels says Budapest is being greedy because Hungary has already been given a longer window — until the end of 2024 — to phase out Russian imports. But Orbán is hoping to get more concessions ahead of a big EU summit on May 30, when the bloc aims to find a political solution to this stalemate.
Shanghai’s June bloom
Officials in China’s most populous city say they are planning for life to return to normal by June 1 following a draconian COVID lockdown that has kept most of Shanghai’s 26 million residents cooped up since early April. China’s zero-COVID policy, which imposes harsh restrictions in response to even the smallest outbreaks of the virus, has wreaked havoc not only on the lives of tens of millions of people in Shanghai and other Chinese cities but on global supply chains too. When the world’s second-largest economy buys and makes fewer things, the world quickly feels it. Public health experts, including the head of the World Health Organization, have said that zero-COVID is unsustainable due to the high transmissibility of omicron, but Beijing remains unmoved. Given the low vaccination rates among China’s elderly (and most vulnerable) population and questions about the efficacy of Chinese-made jabs more broadly, researchers warn that if omicron were left to spread freely in China, more than 1 million people could die in the coming months. That’s something that Xi Jinping seems keen to avoid ahead of this fall’s 20th Party Congress, where he’s aiming to be re-“elected” to an unprecedented third term as party boss and president. Will Shanghai soon find a way out of lockdown, and will the city become a model for other Chinese urban centers looking to get back to normal?
US troops return to Somalia
The Biden administration has approved a Pentagon request to redeploy US troops to conflict-ridden Somalia. This comes less than two years after the Trump administration withdrew almost all 700 US ground troops from the East African nation as part of a broader effort to pull back from “forever wars” in faraway places. Fewer than 500 troops will be stationed in Somalia, according to the US Department of Defense, which says that since Trump’s pullback, al-Shabab — a militant group loosely aligned with al-Qaida — has expanded its reach across the country. As part of Washington’s new counterterrorism mission, President Joe Biden has also reportedly authorized the targeting of al-Shabab leaders. It remains unclear, however, whether this will allow the US military to conduct airstrikes inside Somalia. Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, Somalia’s newly tapped president, welcomed the US’ return, but many Americans who supported Biden’s pledge to end US involvement in foreign conflicts might not feel the same way, particularly given the symbolism associated with the previous (and disastrous) US presence in Somalia.A Ukrainian service member walks near a school building destroyed by Russian shelling in Zhytomyr, Ukraine.
What We're Watching: Russia's consolidation in eastern Ukraine, Shanghai's grueling lockdown
Bracing for worse in Ukraine. As Russia consolidates its forces around the Donbas region in eastern Ukraine, military analysts now warn that the most violent stage of the conflict still looms. Russian forces have been trying to consolidate gains in the country’s southeast, particularly in the Russian-occupied province of Luhansk, and using “scorched earth” tactics in cities like Izyum. The Pentagon has warned that Russia’s withdrawal from other cities, including the capital Kyiv, to focus intensively on the southeast could present new challenges for the Ukrainian military. The different terrain, for example, could make it harder for Ukraine’s troops to carry out the guerilla-style operations that have been successful until now. Meanwhile, the Kremlin’s assault in the east intensified on Sunday, with Russians striking an airport in the city of Dnipro, just days after dozens of Ukrainians were killed in the eastern city of Kramatorsk, where Russia fired missiles at a railway station. The UN now says some 4.5 million Ukrainians have been forced to flee the country.
Xi is in a pickle. China’s zero-COVID policy may have kept the country operating as close to normal as possible. But the fast-spreading omicron variant led to a chaotic and sudden lockdown of Shanghai’s 26 million residents that’s been all but smooth. Many Shanghainese had little time to get groceries and medicines beforehand. Now, as supplies run thin, they’re complaining on social media and screaming from balconies for freedom. Perhaps the biggest sign that the government’s policy is unraveling is reflected in the uproar over the separation of COVID-positive children from parents, which the government was forced to walk back. China’s most populous city has ground to a halt — subways that normally carry 10 million people a day now host just 1,500.So will Xi reverse course? Some analysts say he might be forced to change tact, because the risk of a rupture to social cohesion is too great. Still, that’s unlikely to happen until later in the year, after Xi holds a plenum where he’ll seek to secure an unprecedented third term.
China vs COVID in 2022
Omicron has arrived. It's more contagious, but less severe. Some parts of the world are even looking forward to the pandemic becoming endemic.
Not China. Xi Jinping's zero-COVID strategy has worked wonders until now, but it's unlikely to survive omicron, explains Ian Bremmer on GZERO World.
Why? China's vaccines are not as effective against the new COVID variant as mRNA jabs, and the Chinese population has no protection from previous infection.
Without a homegrown mRNA vaccine, China is vulnerable to local omicron outbreaks, which will lead to severe lockdowns and, in turn, greater economic disruption.
That's the last thing Xi wants less than a month out from the Winter Olympics, and later this year, when he hopes to get an unprecedented third term in office as China's leader.
Watch this episode of GZERO World with Ian Bremmer: Omicron and the undoing of China’s COVID strategy
COVID at the Beijing Winter Olympics
China's zero-COVID strategy will be put to its biggest test to date with the Beijing Winter Olympics approach.
Yanzhong Huang, senior fellow for global health at the Council on Foreign Relations, says Chinese officials think they are taking the safest approach, but that may not be enough against the more transmissible omicron variant.
That's a big risk for Xi Jinping, who hasn't left the country in almost two years — but doesn't want to become isolated on the global stage.
“When other countries learn to live with the virus, and the pandemic's becoming an endemic,” Huang says. “China will find that zero-tolerance strategy unsustainable."
China, he predicts may be able to sustain zero COVID for another year, but not much longer.
Watch his interview with Ian Bremmer on GZERO World: Omicron & the undoing of China's COVID strategy
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Omicron & the undoing of China's COVID strategy
Omicron is here. The bad news is that it's more contagious. The good news is that mRNA vaccines work against death and hospitalization. COVID may soon become endemic in some parts of the world.
Not in China, where Xi Jinping's zero-COVID approach faces its toughest test to date with omicron. Why? Because China lacks mRNA jabs, and so few Chinese people have gotten COVID that overall protection is very low.
Get ready for a wave of lockdowns that'll severely disrupt the world's second-largest economy — just a month out from the Beijing Winter Olympics.
That could spell disaster for Beijing, Yanzhong Huang, senior fellow for global health at the Council on Foreign Relations, tells Ian Bremmer on this week's episode of GZERO World.
Still, he says zero COVID remains popular with most Chinese people.
If things get really bad, though, Huang believes China will pivot to living with the virus, especially as the cost of keeping zero COVID in the age of omicron becomes too high. He thinks that's the right move for Xi.
Indeed, Huang expects China to start reversing course soon after the Games, and when the pandemic becomes endemic in other parts of the world. Beijing will throw in the towel on zero tolerance in 1-2 years, max.
Also, a look at vaccine incentives around the world. Do prizes like cows and brothel visits actually convince holdouts to get the jab?
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China’s pandemic playbook will fail with Omicron — Laura Yasaitis
China's zero-COVID strategy was a major success story in 2020-21. But it won't work with the new omicron variant, according to Eurasia Group healthcare consultant Laura Yasaitis.
Over 83 percent of the Chinese population is fully vaccinated with domestic vaccines. However, it turns out these jabs are much less effective at stopping omicron transmission compared to mRNA vaccines like Pfizer's and Moderna's.
The situation in China won’t be a health catastrophe, Yasaitis predicts, but the Chinese government will impose severe restrictions, including lockdowns such as the one in Xian.
“It's going to be like this game of whack-a-mole, trying to stop each small outbreak as it happens.”
What's more, she anticipates that Xi Jinping’s commitment to the zero-Covid approach will cause economic disruption not only in China, but all over the world.
Watch the full discussion here: https://www.gzeromedia.com/events/top-risks-2022-w...
L-R: Winston Churchill, Franklin D. Roosevelt and Josef Stalin with their advisers at Yalta, in the Crimea, where the Allies decided the future of post-Second World War Europe.
What We’re Watching: No Yalta in 2022, Kazakh turmoil worsens, China needs mRNA jabs
EU warns the US and Russia. EU officials look to be getting nervous about meetings next week between Russia, the US, and NATO. Though NATO representatives from EU member states will be part of the talks, the EU itself was not invited to join. During a visit to Ukraine this week, the EU’s top diplomat warned that “We are no longer in Yalta times,” a reference to the 1945 Yalta agreement among the US, Great Britain, and the Soviet Union that helped to divide post-war Europe into eastern and western blocs. “In this dialogue, there are not two actors alone, not just the US and Russia,” Josep Borrell added. Russia has massed 100,000 troops along its border with Ukraine, and Vladimir Putin has demanded guarantees that NATO not expand to include Ukraine or other former Soviet states. The EU’s comments are intended, in part, to reassure Ukraine that it will not be abandoned to Russian domination. But it’s also a sign that officials in Brussels don’t fully trust US President Joe Biden to protect European rights and interests in bargaining with Putin.
More Kazakh turmoil.Violence continues to escalate in Kazakhstan, where security forces have been told to shoot protesters without warning, and troops from a Russian-led military alliance have arrived on the scene at the invitation of the frightened Kazakh leaders. The unrest began in the town of Zhanaozen in response to a planned price hike that immediately doubled the cost of fuel. The trouble then spread to Almaty, the country’s most populous city, and to Nur-Sultan, the capital. As we wrote yesterday, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev has declared a state of emergency after anti-government demonstrators were killed by police during intense protests and state buildings were set aflame. Tokayev’s decisions to sack the government and call off the fuel price hike have not appeased protesters, who remain angry not just about inflation, but also about wealth inequality in a resource-rich country and the perceived cronyism and ineptitude of a regime that has dominated Kazakh politics since the fall of the Soviet Union. Russia is now directly involved in restoring order. China — which imports a lot of Kazakh oil, gas, and minerals — is watching closely.
China's mRNA vaccine race. China is rushing to develop homegrown mRNA vaccines, as the world's most populous and second-largest economy scrambles to contain local COVID outbreaks with the more transmissible omicron variant. Throughout the pandemic, Beijing has focused on mass-producing traditional vaccines to inoculate its population — and export them overseas — but those jabs offer much less protection against omicron. China has refused to license the mRNA vaccines by Pfizer and Moderna. This strategy, along with Xi Jinping's zero-COVID approach to completely isolate the population from the virus, has come at a heavy cost: our parent company Eurasia Group's #1 top geopolitical risk for 2022 is that a zero-COVID policy will cause many problems for China. Right now, only one local mRNA vaccine candidate has been approved to conduct a booster trial, so it's unlikely the country will have several effective jabs ready to go until at least a year from now. Will the urgency of omicron force Xi to risk losing face by ditching zero COVID and approving foreign-made mRNA vaccines? Don't hold your breath, nor underestimate China's capacity to get big things done at surprising speed.