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How to Consolidate Power by Creating an Enemy | Full Interview with Gideon Rachman | GZERO World

How to consolidate power by creating an enemy

As things become more unstable in the world with inflation and rising food prices, and commodity prices, there is going to be more and more appetite with strong leadership.

Part of the pushback against globalization has been led by autocrats who reject things like free trade and the liberal international order. For them, globalization means losing control.

But the world today remains more interconnected than ever. So, do they want less globalization, or rather a version that fits their narrative? On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer speaks to Gideon Rachman, chief foreign affairs columnist for the Financial Times, who wrote a book about the rise of the age of the strongmen.

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Annie Gugliotta.

UK Chippies battered by effects of the war in Ukraine

Andrew Crook, a fish and chip shop owner in the northern English town of Euxton, has been in the industry for so long, he says, that he’s got “vinegar in his blood.”

Crook has seen plenty of ups and downs at work. But the 46-year-old says he’s never seen anything quite like the storms shaking the industry now, as the effects of the war in Ukraine put an iconic British industry on the brink of disaster.

“It’s a bleak picture,” Crook tells us from his home in the nearby town of Chorley, just as a loud shriek interrupts the conversation. “I’ve got a macaw,” he explains. “He can tell when I’m on a call, and he likes to join in.”

Even before Russia invaded Ukraine, the chippies were struggling because higher fuel costs caused by the pandemic were forcing fish trawlers to charge more for their haul.

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Paige Fusco

What We’re Watching: Global stagflation warning, food fight at the UN, China in Cambodia

World Bank issues stark stagflation warning

The war in Ukraine has frustrated attempts to revive the pandemic-battered global economy, creating an endless loop of bad news. That trend continued Tuesday when the World Bank slashed its global growth forecast to 2.9% – down from a January prediction of 4.1%. (It was 5.7% in 2021.) What’s more, the body warned that “subdued growth” will likely continue throughout the decade and could give rise to 1970s-style stagflation – the double whammy of a stagnant economy coupled with double-digit inflation. But the impacts of the lingering global economic crisis won’t be felt equally. The World Bank says that while wealthy countries like the US and China will experience slower-than-usual growth, developing countries will be hardest hit as borrowing costs rise. This is already playing out: Cash-strapped Sri Lanka was recently forced to default on its sovereign debt for the first time. Crucially, the World Bank also warned that the deepening food crisis could cause social upheaval in import-reliant countries in the near-term.

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Next Steps for a World at a Make-Or-Break Moment | Davos 2022 | GZERO World with Ian Bremmer

Next steps for a world at a make-or-break moment: Davos 2022

For years, titans of industry and government have visited the tiny alpine village of Davos in Switzerland to discuss how to fix the world's problems.

They pushed a globalist agenda, promoting things like liberal democracy and cooperation to address big problems like climate change.

But less people are buying what Davos is selling in 2022. Blame the pandemic and Russia's war in Ukraine. So, what were the main takeaways at this year's geopolitical WEF?

On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer speaks to thought leaders at this year's World Economic Forum:
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British PM Boris Johnson looking puzzled.

Leon Neal via Reuters

What We're Watching: Confidence in Boris, Shanghai reopens, chicken inflation

The Boris vote is coming

Following last week’s Gray report, findings from an investigation into allegations that Boris Johnson attended lockdown-violating social events during the pandemic, it seemed that the UK prime minister might avoid a vote of no-confidence in his leadership of the Conservative Party. But a clumsy response — Johnson claims the report “vindicated” him — and resulting criticism this week from members of his party suggest the vote is coming, perhaps as soon as next week. Here are the basics: It would take a formal request from 54 Tory MPs to force a vote and a simple majority of 180 Tories to oust him. For now, it appears the vote would be close. A narrow victory would leave him a diminished figure, but he could survive in power until a national election in 2024. A loss would create a wide-open, two-month contest to lead the party forward. The vote may wait until after a pair of crucial parliamentary by-elections on June 23. A loss for Conservatives in both those votes might seal Johnson’s fate.

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More Russia-NATO Confrontation Ahead in Ukraine War | World In :60 | GZERO Media

More Russia-NATO confrontation ahead in Ukraine war

Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.

With the US speeding up military aid to Ukraine, can the West coax an end to the war soon?

I don't think so and I'm not sure that's related to how much military aid the West is providing Ukraine. I do think we're getting closer to a frozen conflict because the Russians aren't doing a general mobilization. It'd be very unpopular in Russia for Putin to manage that, which means that their forces are nearly spent. They can't take more territory than the Donbas max with what they have right now. So beyond that and the Ukrainians with some counter offensives, which also will be pretty limited as we're starting to see happening in Kherson in the south, that's probably where we are for the coming months, but that's freezing the conflict near term. That's not an end to the war. That's not, the Russians and Ukrainians are happy with where they are, that you get ceasefire negotiations that could create peace, especially with the Russians likely annexing part of Ukraine. This is I think a war for the duration for a much longer period of time. It's also confrontation between Russia and NATO that so far hasn't been very sharp, but is likely to play out more sharply over time with disinformation attacks and espionage and cyber and all the rest.

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Export Controls Are “Worst Possible” Thing To Do in Food Crisis | Global Stage | GZERO Media

In a food crisis, export controls are "worst possible" thing to do, says UN Foundation chief

The war in Ukraine has aggravated a global food crisis that started with the pandemic. Is there anything we can do about it?

The UN is trying, but there needs to be a much more ambitious response to what is already a catastrophic humanitarian crisis, UN Foundation President Elizabeth Cousens said during a Global Stage livestream discussion hosted by GZERO in partnership with Microsoft at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. She was joined by Ian Bremmer, president of Eurasia Group and GZERO Media; Brad Smith, president and vice chair of Microsoft; and moderator Nicholas Thompson, CEO of The Atlantic.

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Why We’re in the Current Food Crisis — And Who Could Fix It | Hunger Pains | GZERO Media

Why we're in the current food crisis — and who could fix it

Sylvain Charlebois knows a thing or two about food. He's a professor at Dalhousie University in Halifax, Canada, and tweets as @FoodProfessor. So, what does he think about the current global food crisis?

It started two years ago, when COVID disrupted supply chains, but the acute shortages that are driving up prices are more recent, he explained in a conversation for GZERO with Diana Fox Carney, Senior Advisor at Eurasia Group.

Why? Charlebois cites climate issues that hurt inventories, higher shipping costs due to the COVID hangover of weakened supply chains, Russia's war in Ukraine pushing prices up across the board, and "nationalistic hoarding" of staples by certain countries.

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