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Is the global economy finally on the right track?
How’s the global economy doing… really? When it comes to the world’s post-COVID recovery, it’s a tale of two economies: the United States and everyone else. On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer sits down with economist and author Dambisa Moyo for a hard look at the health of the world’s finances and the impact of geopolitical crises in Europe and the Middle East on trade flows and inflation.
Right now, US indicators are strong, but Germany and the UK are slipping into mild recessions, and China’s collapsing real estate sector, local government debt, and exodus of foreign investment is dragging the world’s second-largest economy into stagnation. Not to mention, Global South countries are holding record amounts of debt. So what does it all mean moving forward? Is the global economy still shaking off its post-Covid hangover or are some of these problems more entrenched?
“We need to be growing at 3% per year in order to double per capita incomes in a generation which is 25 years,” Moyo says, “Most of the global south is growing below that number, materially.”
Ian Bremmer and Dambisa Moyo unpack the confusing state of the global economy, China’s economic woes, and where they see the biggest potential for growth in developing economies during the next decade.
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week at gzeromedia.com/gzeroworld or on US public television. Check local listings.
- China’s economy in trouble ›
- Ian Explains: Why China’s era of high growth is over ›
- Struggling for economic progress as global recession looms in 2023 ›
- Dambisa Moyo: Europe's energy transition needs more than a "band-aid solution" ›
- The unintended effect of US-China economic breakup ›
- What saved the global economy from another Great Depression? ›
- Global economy headed to a recession ›
- What geopolitics stories could still blow up the global economy? ›
Ian Explains: Is the US economy good or bad?
What’s going on with the US economy? On Ian Explains, Ian Bremmer breaks down the confusing state of America’s financial health.
Trying to make sense of economic indicators right now can be an exercise in illogic: unemployment is down, but inflation is still stubbornly sticky. Interest rates are higher than they’ve been in two decades, but stock indexes are closing at record highs. Adding to confusion, the upcoming US presidential election means that the economy is front and center, but Democrats and Republicans have a partisan interest in making things seem worse or better than they actually are. So what’s really going on?
When you look at the world’s post-Covid recovery, America is an outlier. US GDP grew faster than any other advanced economy last year. Wages are rising faster than they have in years, inflation, while sticky, is nowhere near its 2022 highs, and unemployment has been under 4% for the longest stretch since the 1960s. So why do only 28% of US voters have a positive view of the economy right now? Some economists are calling this moment “vibe-cession,” warning the negative “vibes” could have a major impact on the presidential election in November.
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week at gzeromedia.com/gzeroworld or on US public television. Check local listings.
Graphic Truth: How does Red Sea chaos affect your wallet?
Attacks on commercial shipping by the Iran-backed Houthi rebels in the Red Sea have thrown yet another wrench into global trade, which has already struggled in recent years due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine.
The Red Sea is one of the busiest shipping lanes in the world, accounting for 30% of global container traffic. Due to the recent chaos, over a dozen shipping companies have rerouted their vessels around the tip of Africa – driving up costs and delays. This could also mean rising consumer prices at a time when inflation is already painfully high.
The US and its allies have made efforts to thwart Houthi attacks on shipping, but the Yemen-based militants have remained defiant. As recently as Tuesday, the Houthis fired multiple missiles at two ships in the Red Sea.
These are the commodities impacted by unrest in the Red Sea region.
Crisis at the WTO: Fixing a broken dispute system
The appeals body of the World Trade Organization (WTO) is like the Supreme Court for global trade. But it’s fundamentally broken: it hasn’t been able to hear any cases or issue decisions since 2019.
The US has blocked new appointments of WTO appeals judges under the Obama, Trump and Biden administrations, complaining that the organization’s rules have hurt US jobs and industry while it lets China protect its massive domestic market from foreign competition. Until WTO reform happens, the US says, it will block any new judges from sitting on the appeals bench.
Without a minimum of three appeals judges, the WTO can’t resolve disputes. And that’s a major problem for the world’s only international organization dealing with the rules of trade between nations. But there may be hope in sight.
On GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said she is hopeful the dispute settlement impasse will be resolved by the WTO's 13th Ministerial Conference (MC13) in February 2024.
“[The United States] are not the only ones who have problems with the system. Developing countries also find it difficult to access,” Okonjo-Iweala says, “So let’s take all these complaints, reform system, and make it useful for everyone.”
Watch the full interview: World trade at risk without globalization, warns WTO chief Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week at gzeromedia.com/gzeroworld or on US public television. Check local listings.
Africa's economy could rival China or India, says WTO chief Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala
The African continent has a population of 1.4 billion people, but it imports more than 90% of its medicines and 90% of its vaccines. WTO Director General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala says the time has come to open up the continent to globalization and encourage businesses to invest in African countries.
On GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, Okonjo-Iweala makes the case for decentralizing and diversifying global trade to open up new markets, bring Global South countries into the mainstream of the world economy, and reduce reliance on any one country for crucial goods and services.
Africa hasn’t yet globalized, but when it does fully integrate into the world economy, it could create a domestic market of over a billion people that rivals that of China and India.
“Africa has about 3% of world trade, and that’s too small,” Okonjo-Iweala says. “When, not if, that experiment really gets going of Africans integrating better with themselves and trading, that is automatically very attractive for trade for the world.”
Watch the full interview: World trade at risk without globalization, warns WTO chief Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week at gzeromedia.com/gzeroworld or on US public television. Check local listings.
- G20 achieves consensus, but stays cool on climate and Ukraine ›
- The Graphic Truth: Russia vs. US trade ties in Africa ›
- What Africa has to say about climate change ›
- Putin hosts Africa summit ›
- Viewpoint: Is China the only reason the US cares about Africa? ›
- Women in power — the World Trade Organization's Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala ›
World trade at risk without globalization, warns WTO chief Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala
On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer sits down with WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala to talk about world trade, the complicated business of moving goods and services across borders around the world.
Global trade hit a staggering $32 trillion in 2022 and the World Trade Organization oversees 98% of it. It’s an international institution that doesn’t normally make headlines, but has a massive role in almost every aspect of your daily life—from the food you eat, to the clothes you wear, to the cars you drive, to the phone you’re probably using to watch this video.
The WTO is the referee of global trade, a place for countries to negotiate agreements and resolve disputes. But it’s also received criticism for being too slow to adapt to the modern economy and for favoring wealthy nations over countries in the Global South.
Okonjo-Iweala has been pushing members to recommit to the principles of globalization and invest in developing economies.
“It's not right that 10 countries export 80% of the vaccines in the world,” Okonjo-Iweala says, “It's too concentrated.”
She argues that by decentralizing and diversifying global supply chains, we can make the global economy more resilient, reduce monopolies, and bring countries left on the margins of world trade into the mainstream.
Watch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week at gzeromedia.com/gzeroworld and on US public television. Check local listings.
- Episode 4: Broken (supply) chains ›
- US-China communications brighten over trade ›
- Climate change trade wars ›
- Hard Numbers: German far right comes up short, Ukraine dreams of drones, a space rock arrives on earth, world trade slows ›
- Women in power — the World Trade Organization's Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala ›
- What Africa has to say about climate change ›
- The Graphic Truth: Has climate change hurt or helped farmers? ›
- Crisis at the WTO: Fixing a broken dispute system - GZERO Media ›
Podcast: Calling for the "reglobalization" of trade: WTO chief Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala
Listen: Ian Bremmer sits down with World Trade Organization Director General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, the first woman and first person from Africa to lead the organization, for a conversation about the good, the bad, and the future of global trade on the GZERO World podcast.
In the last half century, globalization has dramatically increased economic output, created hundreds of millions of jobs, and lifted millions of people out of poverty. But development between countries has been uneven, and global inequality is on the rise. Covid-19 and the war in Ukraine disrupted exposed weaknesses in the supply chain. And rising tension between the US and China has led to a world economy that’s becoming increasingly fractured.
But is the way out of a crisis not less trade, but more? How do we make sure the future of trade is fair to countries in the Global South, who are reeling from runaway debt and bearing the brunt of climate change?
Subscribe to the GZERO World Podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, or your preferred podcast platform, to receive new episodes as soon as they're published.
Ian Explains: What is the World Trade Organization?
You probably don’t spend a ton of time thinking about the World Trade Organization (WTO), but it has a huge role in almost every aspect of your daily life—from your morning Brazil-roasted coffee to the Chinese-made smartphone you’re probably using to watch this video.
The WTO is an international organization that deals with the complicated business of moving goods and services across borders. It’s kind of like the referee for global trade, setting the rules and providing a forum for countries to negotiate agreements and resolve disputes. It’s why you can buy avocados from Mexico, clothes from Vietnam, or cars from Korea in the United States without a second thought.
Global trade ballooned to a staggering $32 trillion in 2022 and the WTO oversees 98% of it.
The WTO has been a force for globalization. It’s opened up new markets, lowered tariffs, and lifted millions out of poverty, but it’s also received criticism for favoring wealthy nations and exacerbating global inequality. Not to mention a broken dispute settlement system that’s made resolving international trade conflict virtually impossible.
On Ian Explains, Ian Bremmer dives into the history of the WTO, why the US is blocking appointments of WTO judges, and what all of this has to do with Japanese octopus.
Watch the full interview: World trade at risk without globalization, warns WTO chief Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala
Watch the upcoming episode of GZERO World with Ian Bremmer on US public television this weekend (check local listing) and at gzeromedia.com/gzeroworld.
- World Trade Organization - GZERO Media ›
- Women in power — the World Trade Organization's Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala ›
- Hard Numbers: GDP wars, WTO rules in Beijing’s favor, Africans support Chinese engagement, China winning 5G battle ›
- The Graphic Truth: Russia vs. US trade ties in Africa ›
- Graphic Truth: Who Wins From A US-China Trade War? ›
- Crisis at the WTO: Fixing a broken dispute system - GZERO Media ›