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What Trump team's war plans leak revealed
Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: Hi everybody. Ian Bremmer here, and a Quick Take on this extraordinary story in The Atlantic. Jeffrey Goldberg, editor-in-chief of this magazine, invited into a Signal chat, the Signal app, by the national security advisor, Michael Waltz, with all of the major national security related principles in the Trump administration, to discuss imminent attacks by the United States on the Houthis in Yemen, the single biggest war fighting that the Trump administration has been involved in the first two months of their term. A lot to think about here, a few points I think worth mentioning.
The first point, it's pretty clear this should not have happened. A discussion of this sort, classified, involving direct war preparation, should not have been happening on Signal, but clearly everyone in the conversation was aware and okay with that. So, I don't think you blame singularly Mike Waltz for the fact that he was the guy that happened to bring the outsider inadvertently in. This collective responsibility, everyone, this is the way the Trump administration is handling these sensitive national security conversations, that is what needs to be looked into and rectified going forward. Mike definitely made a mistake here, and what seems almost certainly to be the case is that he thought he was including the US trade representative, Jamieson Greer, JG, same initials as Jeffrey Goldberg - and The Atlantic editor-in-chief, and he's the only obvious person, Greer, that otherwise wasn't on this broader conversation. So, I would bet my bottom dollar that is the way this happened. And I think all the people that are calling for Mike Waltz to be fired, I certainly wouldn't let him go for that. The issue is the broader lack of operational security around war decisions and fighting.
Now, as to the actual content of the conversations, frankly, I found all of the people involved to be pretty reasonable, especially in the context of how generally unprepared President Trump himself is on matters of national security. So, the fact that Vice President JD Vance was worried about the inconsistency of going to war for something that he doesn't think is a clear and direct US interest, that the US economy would be limited in terms of the impact of it, and this isn't really an American issue in the way that Trump defines American issues and war, that strikes me as not disloyal, but indeed the reality that Vance is aware of the fact that Trump doesn't know a lot of these details. But he doesn't want to bring it to Trump individually. Why not? Because he's going to get his head handed to him if he brings bad news to Trump unless everybody is on board, and of course, everybody isn't on board. There's some reasonable discussion around that, including with the defense secretary, Pete Hegseth, and then finally Stephen Miller, deputy chief of staff and head of policy in the White House, is the one that cuts it off because, why? He's the guy that is saying, "Trump says he wants it, we're going to do it." In other words, you've got to be completely loyal to Trump, that's it. And that's exactly what we've seen from this second administration, what Trump wants, Trump gets.
Now, another interesting point here is that the Europeans are not considered allies by this group across the board. Should be clear from anybody that has seen Vance in Munich, anyone that has seen the recent interview between the US Special Envoy Witkoff and Tucker Carlson, a number of other places where that's happened. But the point is that the entire Trump cabinet is basically saying, "We shouldn't be helping the Europeans, and if we have to help the Europeans, and Lord knows we shouldn't, we have to ensure that they directly pay for American help, American assistance." This is not collective security. This is completely transactional. Also, you got a lot of that about el-Sisi in Egypt, someone that Trump has been very supportive of, and indeed the US provides more support to Egypt than any other country militarily in the world except Israel. So the last few months you would've thought that Egypt would've been an exception there. From what we've seen from the cabinet, apparently not. Certainly a concern in terms of what Egypt is and is not willing to do on the ground in Gaza for Trump. That relationship seems pretty dicey.
Final point here, Jeffrey Goldberg deserves credit. I know that Elon in particular likes to say a lot that the public is now the media, but it turns out that well-trained journalists have standards and those standards are important. I have had my disagreements with what Goldberg has had to say. Some of his positions over the years, support for the Iraq War, for example, lots of other things, but in terms of his professionalism, as soon as he realized that he had been invited into something that was an authentic conversation about actual war plans and fighting, he got out and he told Waltz that he had been mistakenly invited. He made the public aware of what was going on without divulging any of the direct war plans or outing intelligence, active intelligence member that was part of it, all of those things, it was absolutely the right thing to do. He's now getting smeared by Hegseth, the secretary of defense, who was clearly embarrassed by his own mistake and his participation and culpability in all of this. He personally won't take responsibility as we so frequently see with our political leaders and never should have gotten confirmed, in my view and in the view of many Republican senators who weren't willing to go out publicly because of course they were fearful for their own careers. But Jeff Goldberg has done the right thing in terms of his career and I commend him for it.
That's it for me. I'll talk to y'all real soon.
Smoke rises after Israeli strikes near Sanaa airport, in Sanaa, Yemen, on Dec. 26, 2024.
Israel hits the Houthis: Is this the opening of a bigger campaign?
Israel on Thursday struck military sites and power infrastructure across parts of Yemen controlled by the Houthi militia.
The move is the latest in an escalating tit-for-tat between Israel and the Iran-backed rebels who control most of Yemen and have launched several missiles and drones at Israel over the past week alone.
The Houthis pledged solidarity with Hamas in the days after the group’s attack on Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, and have attacked Israel directly as well as ships in the Red Sea since then.
Earlier this week, Israel threatened to kill the group’s leaders after a Houthi missile landed in a Tel Aviv playground.
Is this just a prelude? Israel in recent months has severely hobbled Iran’s other two main regional proxies, Hamas and Hezbollah, killing the leaders of both groups. Is Israel gearing up for a bigger campaign against the last relatively unscathed part of Iran’s “axis of resistance”?An F/A-18 Hornet approaches the flight deck of aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt as USS McFaul trails behind, October 30, 2001. Theodore Roosevelt and its carrier airwing are conducting missions in support of operation Enduring Freedom.
Hard Numbers: US friendly fire downs F/A-18, Russia guns down prisoners, US court rules on Pegasus spyware case, China goes after Canadian activists
2: Two US Navy pilots were forced to eject from their F/A-18 fighter over the Red Sea on Sunday during a “friendly fire” incident when a US warship targeted their plane with a missile. Both pilots survived the ejection but one sustained minor injuries, and it is not immediately clear why the ship, which was on station to shoot down Houthi missiles launched from Yemen, fired upon the aircraft.
127: Russian forces have summarily executed at least 127 Ukrainian troops this year according to prosecutors investigating these war crimes. The figures is an immense spike — officials counted just 20 summary executions of prisoners of war in 2022 and 2023 combined — suggesting an alarming shift in Russian doctrine.
1,400: A US court on Friday ruled that Israeli cyber-intelligence firm NSO Group was liable for hacking the devices of 1,400 WhatsApp users using the secretive software known as Pegasus, in violation of US cybersecurity laws. Pegasus has been implicated in hacks on dissidents by authoritarian governments around the world, and has been on a US blacklist since 2021.
20: Beijing announced Sunday it was taking punitive action against twenty people and two Canadian institutions advocating on behalf of the human rights of Tibetan and Uyghur minorities in China. The measures include asset freezes, bans on entry to China, and seizure of any real estate in the PRC. They come just weeks after Canada also announced sanctions on Chinese officials accused of human rights abuses.People, mainly Houthi supporters, rally to mark the anniversary of the birth of the Prophet Mohammad and to show solidarity with Palestinians in the Gaza Strip, in Sanaa, Yemen, September 15, 2024.
Netanyahu vows retaliation against Houthis, Hezbollah threatens war
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Sunday vowed that the Houthis would pay a “heavy price” after a missile fired from Yemen struck central Israel. The Houthis credited theability of new hypersonic ballistic missiles to evade interception by Israel’s Iron Dome defense system and warned of more strikes ahead of the anniversary of Hamas’ Oct. 7 attacks “in solidarity with the Palestinians.”
Hamas welcomed the strike, which represents an escalation from Houthi aggression against Israeli-linked ships in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden since November. The group had previously also fired missiles at the Israeli port city ofEilat and struck Tel Aviv with a drone in July, killing one man and wounding four others.
Also this weekend,Hezbollah’s deputy leader, Naim Qassem, warned Israel that a full-scale war on Lebanon would result in “large losses on both sides” and further displacement of Israelis. Qassem made the remarks after Israel’s Channel 13 reported that Netanyahu was “on the verge” of launching a “broad and strong operation” on the country’s northern border with Lebanon.The Israeli military reported Saturday that it struck Hezbollah “weapons storage facilities” in Lebanon after “a barrage of 55 projectiles” were fired from Lebanese to Israeli territory earlier that morning. We’re watching for signs of further escalation.Flames and smoke rise from the site of Israeli air strikes at the port of Hodeidah, Yemen July 21, 2024.
Israel and the Houthis escalate their fight
In support of Palestinians now under fire in Gaza, Houthi rebels based in Yemen have attacked ships they say are affiliated with Israel in the Red Sea and have sent missiles and drones flying toward Israeli targets. Israel, with help from the US and neighboring Arab countries, has blocked most of those attacks.
But last Friday, the Houthis claimed credit for adrone attack on a Tel Aviv apartment building that killed one Israeli man and injured eight more. Israel responded with air strikes on the Houthi-controlled Red Sea port of Hodeidah in Yemen. Authorities there said the Israeli attack killed three civilians and injured 80.
The Biden administration has designated the Houthis a “Specially Designated Global Terrorist Group,” but has so far stopped short of the more serious label as a ”Global Terrorist Organization” for fear that automatically resulting sanctions would do little to deter the group but deepen the misery of Yemen’s large number of starving people.
There are several questions raised by this dramatic Israel-Houthi escalation.
- Will it distract Israel’s government from the more dangerous fights with Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon?
- The Houthis claim the Saudis, who fought the Houthis in Yemen’s civil war, provided the Israeli strike with access to its airspace. Can the Saudis stay out of the conflict?
- How much damage will Iran allow their Houthi allies to sustain before they become directly involved?
- Will the attack on this crucial Yemeni port add to the humanitarian disaster inside Yemen?
Neither the Saudis nor Iran wants to get caught in a shooting war. And despite the escalation, the Israeli-Houthi fight will probably remain contained. But the stakes are high enough that no government in the region can afford to stop watching.
The Galaxy Leader commercial ship, seized by Yemen's Houthis last month, is seen off the coast of al-Salif, Yemen, December 5, 2023.
Hard Numbers: Migrant boat capsizes off Yemen coast, US banana giant found liable for murders, EU stocks up on bird flu vaccines, “Pink slime” crisis in America
8: A South Florida jury found US banana giant Chiquita liable for the deaths of eight men killed by the United Self-Defense Forces of Colombia, or AUC, a right-wing paramilitary group designated as terrorists by the US. Chiquita, which financed the AUC with nearly $2 million, was ordered to pay the victims’ families $38.3 million in penalties. Under its former name, the United Fruit Company, Chiquita was famously meddlesome in Latin American politics – its infamous 1928 massacre of striking banana workers in Colombia was immortalized in Nobel laureate Gabriel García Marquez’s “One Hundred Years of Solitude.”
40 million: These vaccines are for the birds – literally. The European Union has secured 40 million doses of bird flu vaccine as cases of the disease continue to rise. So far, at least 10 US states have reported outbreaks among farm animals in recent months, with three cases of the illness jumping to humans.
1,265: Pink slime is oozing through America. A new study has found that at least 1,265 websites are masquerading as local news outlets while drawing funding from dark money sources or openly political financiers on the left and right. The sites are particularly concentrated in swing states. The grossest part of the story? Owing to the long-standing decline of local journalism, these imposter sites, known as “pink slime” (a beef industry term), now outnumber legitimate local outlets for the first time.
After Super Tuesday, US elections inch closer to Biden vs. Trump redux
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
Any surprises from Super Tuesday
Yeah, I was surprised that Nikki Haley got Vermont. Honestly, I thought that she'd get swept by Trump. Though Vermont is a tiny, tiny little state. It still counts, but she's still out. She's, of course, suspended her campaign and that is not a surprise. And Biden beat undecided and Dean Phillips, who is basically the equivalent of undecided, pretty decisively in all of his states. So, yes, unless something happens health-wise to either of the candidates over the next months, it is Biden, and it is Trump, and that is it. And we've known that for a good long while now. It doesn't feel so super. It's not what everybody wants, but we still have months and months and months in the world's longest and most expensive election in the world. Yet one more reason why the United States is the most powerful and super dysfunctional democracy.
Is the Red Sea turning into a Houthi stronghold?
I wouldn't say that the Houthis are significantly degraded in their military capabilities by the United States and the UK over the last month now. They are not getting the same level of support, intelligence wise, from the Iranians that they were in previous months. So they are still getting the weapons. Some of those weapons are getting interdicted by the United States and allies. But they are still engaging in strikes in the Red Sea. And that, of course, is making it harder for ships to get through. And it's increasing costs on commodities and it's disrupting supply chains. That's where we are. That's likely to continue. But again, I wouldn't call it a stronghold. The one country that's really hurt in all of this is Sudan, which is experiencing the worst humanitarian crisis in the world right now. And it's made worse by the fact that you can't get any aid through the Red Sea because the Houthis are blocking it.
As the Israel-Hamas war nears the five-month mark, is a cease-fire likely?
Well, Hamas is demanding a permanent cease-fire as part of the terms of getting an agreement with Israel that is absolutely not on the table. Can we get a short-term cease-fire, a six-week cease-fire? I am still optimistic, but I'm telling you, it is getting more challenging. And if Netanyahu is really angry at Benny Gantz for being more solicitous with the Americans and the Brits, and traveling to those countries to engage in diplomacy when Netanyahu told him not to go and when he told the Israeli embassy in those countries not to support him, the potential that you end up not getting a deal because of the Israeli dysfunction in their governance and Hamas continuing to kick the can and put ideas on the table that are absolutely unacceptable to the Israelis, that makes it harder. So I do think that the potential is all falls apart, is creeping up. But if you make me bet by next week, I still think on balance we get a deal. Anyway, let's be hopeful for that.
The beach, Red Sea State, Port Sudan, Sudan.
Sudan’s lost sea access worsens humanitarian disaster
Since fighting between rival military factions in Sudan erupted last April, nearly 8 million people have been displaced, and 24 million require urgent food aid. But the crisis now may begin to beggar description as the country loses access to its Red Sea coast and migrants stream across its borders.
Refugee influx. Over 400,000 Sudanese refugees have fled to Libya, where they face long waits for registration, leading many to turn to smugglers to attempt dangerous Europe-bound sea crossings. Their first destination is Italy, with nearly 6,000 Sudanese refugees arriving there in 2023.
Numbers are expected to soar this year, prompting Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni to urge support for investments designed to disincentivize migration. Meloni unveiled a plan last month to enhance energy cooperation with African states and assist them in areas including health and education, at a cost of 3 million euros annually for four years.
Impact of Houthi attacks. Houthi attacks in the Red Sea have cut off Sudanese ports and are disrupting aid shipments, forcing humanitarian agencies to reroute deliveries at significantly higher costs. Some shipments are delayed, others are stuck altogether, and still more face exorbitant air-freight costs. Aid workers describe the situation as "catastrophic" and fear mass starvation is imminent.