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After Super Tuesday, US elections inch closer to Biden vs. Trump redux
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
Any surprises from Super Tuesday
Yeah, I was surprised that Nikki Haley got Vermont. Honestly, I thought that she'd get swept by Trump. Though Vermont is a tiny, tiny little state. It still counts, but she's still out. She's, of course, suspended her campaign and that is not a surprise. And Biden beat undecided and Dean Phillips, who is basically the equivalent of undecided, pretty decisively in all of his states. So, yes, unless something happens health-wise to either of the candidates over the next months, it is Biden, and it is Trump, and that is it. And we've known that for a good long while now. It doesn't feel so super. It's not what everybody wants, but we still have months and months and months in the world's longest and most expensive election in the world. Yet one more reason why the United States is the most powerful and super dysfunctional democracy.
Is the Red Sea turning into a Houthi stronghold?
I wouldn't say that the Houthis are significantly degraded in their military capabilities by the United States and the UK over the last month now. They are not getting the same level of support, intelligence wise, from the Iranians that they were in previous months. So they are still getting the weapons. Some of those weapons are getting interdicted by the United States and allies. But they are still engaging in strikes in the Red Sea. And that, of course, is making it harder for ships to get through. And it's increasing costs on commodities and it's disrupting supply chains. That's where we are. That's likely to continue. But again, I wouldn't call it a stronghold. The one country that's really hurt in all of this is Sudan, which is experiencing the worst humanitarian crisis in the world right now. And it's made worse by the fact that you can't get any aid through the Red Sea because the Houthis are blocking it.
As the Israel-Hamas war nears the five-month mark, is a cease-fire likely?
Well, Hamas is demanding a permanent cease-fire as part of the terms of getting an agreement with Israel that is absolutely not on the table. Can we get a short-term cease-fire, a six-week cease-fire? I am still optimistic, but I'm telling you, it is getting more challenging. And if Netanyahu is really angry at Benny Gantz for being more solicitous with the Americans and the Brits, and traveling to those countries to engage in diplomacy when Netanyahu told him not to go and when he told the Israeli embassy in those countries not to support him, the potential that you end up not getting a deal because of the Israeli dysfunction in their governance and Hamas continuing to kick the can and put ideas on the table that are absolutely unacceptable to the Israelis, that makes it harder. So I do think that the potential is all falls apart, is creeping up. But if you make me bet by next week, I still think on balance we get a deal. Anyway, let's be hopeful for that.
The beach, Red Sea State, Port Sudan, Sudan.
Sudan’s lost sea access worsens humanitarian disaster
Since fighting between rival military factions in Sudan erupted last April, nearly 8 million people have been displaced, and 24 million require urgent food aid. But the crisis now may begin to beggar description as the country loses access to its Red Sea coast and migrants stream across its borders.
Refugee influx. Over 400,000 Sudanese refugees have fled to Libya, where they face long waits for registration, leading many to turn to smugglers to attempt dangerous Europe-bound sea crossings. Their first destination is Italy, with nearly 6,000 Sudanese refugees arriving there in 2023.
Numbers are expected to soar this year, prompting Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni to urge support for investments designed to disincentivize migration. Meloni unveiled a plan last month to enhance energy cooperation with African states and assist them in areas including health and education, at a cost of 3 million euros annually for four years.
Impact of Houthi attacks. Houthi attacks in the Red Sea have cut off Sudanese ports and are disrupting aid shipments, forcing humanitarian agencies to reroute deliveries at significantly higher costs. Some shipments are delayed, others are stuck altogether, and still more face exorbitant air-freight costs. Aid workers describe the situation as "catastrophic" and fear mass starvation is imminent.Oil tanker Marlin Luanda has caught fire 60 nautical miles southeast of Aden in Yemen after a missile attack by Houthi fighters based in Yemen.
Friendly fire signals Houthis are shooting blind in the Red Sea
On Monday, Yemen’s Houthi rebels fired ballistic missiles at a ship bound for Iran, the militia’s main supporter. Would the Houthis really target their patrons in Tehran?
Almost certainly not. There’s no evidence to suggest a rupture between Iran and the Houthis, who have been attacking ships in the Red Sea in hopes of increasing global pressure on Israel to stop its assault on Gaza.
Rather, according to Eurasia Group’s Iran Expert Gregory Brew, the attack shows that the Houthis may be simply taking a different tack. “Houthi attacks may become more indiscriminate,” says Brew, “hitting ships they don’t intend to hit, or targeting ones with more sensitive cargoes.”
Firing blind(er). Iran recently relocated the surveillance ship that provides intelligence to the Houthis to Djibouti to avoid US attacks, limiting the Houthis ability to identify suitable targets and making it more likely that missiles will be mistakenly fired in the future.
Less precision in Houthi strikes will only further aggravate concerns about security in the Red Sea, a major global shipping chokepoint. See our recent Graphic Truth on the goods and commodities most affected by the Red Sea crisis.
Graphic Truth: How does Red Sea chaos affect your wallet?
Attacks on commercial shipping by the Iran-backed Houthi rebels in the Red Sea have thrown yet another wrench into global trade, which has already struggled in recent years due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine.
The Red Sea is one of the busiest shipping lanes in the world, accounting for 30% of global container traffic. Due to the recent chaos, over a dozen shipping companies have rerouted their vessels around the tip of Africa – driving up costs and delays. This could also mean rising consumer prices at a time when inflation is already painfully high.
The US and its allies have made efforts to thwart Houthi attacks on shipping, but the Yemen-based militants have remained defiant. As recently as Tuesday, the Houthis fired multiple missiles at two ships in the Red Sea.
These are the commodities impacted by unrest in the Red Sea region.
Houthi tribesmen parade to show defiance after U.S. and U.K. air strikes on Houthi positions near Sanaa, Yemen February 4, 2024.
Houthis threaten to retaliate after US, UK attacks
On Sunday, Houthi militants vowed to punish the United States and the United Kingdom for pounding Houthi targets on Saturday. A coalition of countries supported attacks on 36 targets across 13 locations in Yemen, including rebel strongholds in the capital Sanaa, as the conflict between Israel, Hamas, and its proxies continued to spread well beyond Gaza. US forces also took out an anti-ship missile that was set to be used in the Red Sea.
The governments of Iran, Iraq, and Syria issued condemnations, and Russia called for an urgent meeting of the UN Security Council in New York on Monday. Iran also warned the US not to target two cargo ships suspected of serving as forward operating bases for Iranian commandos.
What’s next? In an attempt to quell rising tensions, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is visiting Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Qatar, Israel, and the West Bank between Sunday and Thursday. Blinken’s agenda includes the release of hostages held by Hamas, the establishment of a humanitarian pause in Gaza, and the safeguarding of maritime commerce in the Red Sea.
U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan attends a session during the 54th annual meeting of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, January 16, 2024.
US and China set up back-channel meetings as pressure over Yemen grows
US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan will reportedly meet with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi behind closed doors in the coming days to discuss the Middle East and Taiwan.
Several top-level meetings had already been on the public schedule, but this private format – previously used to set the stage for the 2023 Biden-Xi summit as well as to smooth things over after House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s 2022 visit to Taiwan – allows a more candid exchange on sensitive issues.
Taiwan on the agenda. The meeting comes just one month after pro-independence candidate William Lai won the Taiwanese presidential elections. As such, it’s a chance for Washington and Beijing – which considers Taiwan to be part of China – to speak frankly about boundaries over the self-governing island, minimizing risks to the stability of the US-China relationship.
But the Houthi issue may be more pressing, as the Iran-backed rebel group’s attacks on Red Sea are posing a broader risk to the global economy. Some 15% of global trade normally passes through the Red Sea, including crucial cargoes of oil, natural gas, and grains. Ships forced to take the 4,000-mile longer alternate route around the Cape of Good Hope add about 10 days time and triple the cost of shipping, raising prices for the producers and consumers who rely on those goods.
The US, which has pounded Houthi positions with airstrikes, has also been asking Beijing to use its good offices with Iran to ask Tehran to restrain the Houthis. Beijing’s reaction has essentially amounted to “sinking ships is bad, but you’re on your own, pal.” In part that may be because the Houthis have promised not to attack Chinese ships, a pledge that some Chinese shipping companies are capitalizing on. Still, if the Red Sea choke-out starts to have wider effects on the global economy, China – still nursing a slow post-pandemic recovery – may start to see things differently.Houthi fighters and tribal supporters hold up their firearms during a protest against recent U.S.-led strikes on Houthi targets, near Sanaa, Yemen January 14, 2024.
Playing with fire: Is retaliation the new normal in the Middle East?
The region was already a tinderbox, and now the adversaries are playing with matches.
Tehran takes aim: Iran launched an unprecedented – and unprovoked – attack on nuclear-armed Pakistan. The missile and drone attack was aimed at Jaish al-Adl, a Sunni militant group operating along Pakistan’s border and marks a massive escalation from Iran’s previous military exchanges with the group as Iran continues to retaliate for the suicide bombing that killed 86 people this month at a memorial procession for Maj. Gen. Qassim Suleimani. Pakistan has vowed that the attacks will have “serious consequences.”
The attack comes the day after Iran launched ballistic missiles into Iraq and Syria with claims it was targeting Israel’s “headquarters of spies” and other places used to plan the bombing. The last two days have been Iran’s most direct show of force since January 2020, when it responded to Washington’s killing of Suleimani with missile strikes on US troops in Iraq. Ten of Monday’s missiles landed near the US consulate in northern Iraq, reflecting the escalatory risk involved with such strikes.
And don’t forget about Israel: Palestinian militants on Tuesday fired 25 rockets out of Gaza at the Israeli city of Netivot, which lies about six miles from the Gaza border. Israel’s Iron Dome air defense system generally intercepts rockets, and although there were no casualties, the attack exacerbates fears of Hamas’s enduring threat.
The attack is being used by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s war council as an excuse to backtrack on rhetoric that Israel is shifting to a more targeted campaign in Gaza. But many were already skeptical of this amid escalating attacks in North Gaza. More likely, the announcements and troop withdrawals aimed to bolster the economy and placate international criticism – particularly in the US, where Sen. Bernie Sanders has called for a Tuesday night vote to require the Biden administration to report on Israel's human rights practices.
However, Itamar Ben-Gvir, Israel’s far-right national security minister, has said that the attack in Netivot “proves that conquering Gaza is essential to realizing the war’s goals,” and that Israelis should prepare for the war to continue for months as support for retaliating for Oct. 7 and rescuing the hostages remains high domestically.
The rub: Whether it's Iran, the US, the Houthis, Israel, or Hamas, all sides see their attacks as retaliatory, which could quickly evolve into a cycle of escalation.
The dog, Bobi, that broke the record for oldest dog ever at 30 years-old, is pictured at Conqueiros, in Leiria, Portugal, February 4, 2023.
Hard Numbers: Dog title temporarily revoked, Young Irish adults live with parents, Russian air travelers live in fear, Houthi strikes crush cargo
⅔: Ireland is suffering from a serious housing crisis. Rents are so high that some two-thirds of Irish young adults live with their parents, which is nearly 20 points higher than the EU average. Experts blame a failure to invest in social housing and an overreliance on market solutions, which created incentives for developers to build luxury or short-term rental properties rather than lower or middle-income housing.
8: Russia’s commercial airline industry is hitting some serious turbulence. In the first eight days of December, according to a new report, Russian civilian airliners suffered at least eight separate serious mechanical failures. The rash of incidents is part of a wider problem: Western sanctions preventing the delivery of parts and service to Western-made aircraft in Russia are causing Russia’s commercial fleets to fall apart,
65: Houthi airstrikes on commercial ships navigating the Red Sea have caused cargo volumes through that waterway to fall 65% from normal levels. On Tuesday, even after two rounds of US-led airstrikes on Houthi targets, a Houthi missile struck a Greek-owned ship off the Yemeni coast. The Houthis say they’ll stop when there’s a cease-fire in Gaza, a call echoed by Qatar’s prime minister on Tuesday at Davos. (See our explainer on why Qatar is a small country with big influence these days.)