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War in Europe | GZERO World with Ian Bremmer
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Ukraine war: Has Putin overplayed his hand?

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After weeks of military buildup and lies, Russia has attacked Ukraine. We are watching a worst-case scenario — a full invasion by land, sea, and cyberspace — play out in real time. With diplomacy dead, Western allies are now turning to sanctions.

The mood was somber at the recent Munich Security Conference, where world leaders were scrambling to avoid exactly this outcome.

On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer talks to former CIA boss David Petraeus to discuss the "porcupine" Vladimir Putin has eaten, and to John Kerry, former US Secretary of State and the Biden administration's current climate czar, about Putin's other big problem with climate.

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Petraeus: Taking Ukraine Is One Thing, Holding Onto It Is Another | GZERO World
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Petraeus: Taking Ukraine is one thing, holding onto it is another

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At the first in-person Munich Security Conference in two years, world leaders gathered amidst the greatest threat to European peace since World War II. As over 150,000 Russian troops surrounded Ukraine's border, poised to invade, Ian Bremmer sat down with former CIA Director and retired four star general David Petraeus for an upcoming episode of GZERO World. He knows a thing or two about invasions, having played pivotal roles in both of America's military campaigns in Iraq over the past thirty years. And as he tells Ian Bremmer, invading a country is one thing. Holding onto it is quite another.

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A man reacts during a rally to support the National Defense Force and to condemn the expansion of the Tigray People Liberation Front fighters into Amhara and Afar regional territories at the Meskel Square in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia August 8, 2021.

REUTERS/Tiksa Negeri

What We're Watching: Everyone vs Ethiopian PM, Brazil ditches Huawei, (more) trouble in Sudan, Argentina's midterms, Iraqi powder keg

Opposition forces unite in Ethiopia's civil war. The Tigray People's Liberation Front, which has been locked in a brutal year-long civil war against Ethiopian government forces, has now teamed up with another powerful militant outfit that wants to oust Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. The TPLF, now in alliance with the Oromo Liberation Army — which claims to represent Ethiopia's largest ethnic group — have swept towards the capital Addis Ababa in recent days, prompting the embattled Abiy to call on civilians to take up arms in defense of the city. The Tigray-Oromo alliance, called the United Front of Ethiopian Federalist Forces, has called for Abiy's immediate ouster, either by negotiation or by force, and for the prosecution of government officials for war crimes. The UN says all sides in the conflict have committed abuses. The US, which has threatened to suspend Ethiopia's trade preferences over the government's alleged war crimes, is currently trying to broker a cease-fire. When Abiy came to power after popular protests in 2018, he was hailed for liberalizing what was formerly an extremely repressive government (controlled, as it happens, by the TPLF). Now it's looking like he may have unleashed the very forces that could tear the country apart and drive him from office — or worse.

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What We're Watching: A powder keg in Iraq

Iraqi PM's narrow escape. Iraq's PM Mustafa al-Kadhimi is lucky to be alive after a barrage of explosives was fired at his compound inside a high-security zone, injuring several security personnel. The brazen attack was carried out by pro-Iran militias, who have been violently calling for a recount since their parties did poorly in the recent parliamentary elections. On Friday, the militias tried to breach the fortified area known as the "Green Zone," which includes the PM's compound and Western embassies. Pro-Iran factions are particularly worried that Shia Muslim cleric Muqtada al-Sadr — whose party won the biggest share of votes and is trying to form a government — will try to temper Tehran's growing influence over the oil-rich country. (Al-Sadr has called for way less foreign interference in Iraq from Iran and the West). Even before the recent unrest, things weren't going well in Iraq, where power supplies are scarce and the economy is in shambles. What's more, Iraqis have little faith in the political elite's ability to fix things, as was reflected in the record-low election turnout. We're watching to see if this latest round of violence begets… more violence.

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Gabriella Turrisi

The “bad guys” at COP26

Everyone understands that burning fossil fuels contributes directly to global warming. We all know that we have to reduce oil and gas consumption to avert the worst effects of climate change. And we're well aware that this is a major focus at COP26 right now.

But spare a thought for those who are often portrayed as the bad guys in all of this: the countries that pump and export hydrocarbons like mad. And they do it not because they hate polar bears, but rather because oil and gas exports are crucial for their economies, their geopolitical power, or in some cases their very survival.

Let's have a look at the tradeoffs that a few exemplary exporters are dealing with.

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Colin Powell Leaves a Long Legacy Dedicated to Public Service | US Politics In :60 | GZERO Media
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Colin Powell's legacy

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Jon Lieber, head of Eurasia Group's coverage of political and policy developments in Washington, shares insights on US politics:

What is the legacy of Colin Powell?

Former Secretary of State Colin Powell tragically died of complications of COVID-19. He was the first Black Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, the first Black National Security Advisor and the first Black Secretary of State. And he leaves a legacy of a long career, dedicated almost entirely to public service.

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Men walk near election campaign posters ahead of the parliamentary election in Mosul, Iraq.

REUTERS/Khalid al-Mousily

Iraq has elections this weekend — will anybody show up?

Iraq will hold on Sunday its fifth election since the US-led invasion toppled Saddam Hussein in 2003, and the first since a widespread protest movement in 2019 ousted the government in place at that time. Over 900 candidates are vying for 329 parliamentary seats against a backdrop of still-elevated economic, social, and security tensions in the oil-rich country. Eurasia Group analyst Sofia Meranto explains what's at stake in the vote.

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Former US Homeland Security Chief Michael Chertoff Discusses Counterterrorism | GZERO World
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Former US Homeland Security chief Michael Chertoff discusses counterterrorism

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For Michael Chertoff, former US secretary of Homeland Security from 2005 to 2009, the fact that America has not experienced a single attack by foreign terrorists since 9/11 proves that the US was "successful" in its strategy to prevent terrorism. That "was not [an] accident and there was a deterrent effect to be honest — had we been lax, more would have tried." Although he admits the US government wasn't transparent enough about the intelligence it was collecting, Chertoff credits US intelligence agencies with helping to foil the plot to blow up airplanes mid-air from Heathrow to the US in 2006. The US mission in Iraq, or what came after was not clearly thought out, according to Michael Chertoff, who served as the Secretary of the US Department of Homeland Security under George W. Bush. The Iraq war made it difficult to focus on the US mission in Afghanistan and absorbed resources that could have been used more effectively elsewhere, he said.

Watch this episode of GZERO World with Ian Bremmer: Is America safer since 9/11?

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