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Iran was the clear loser of its war with Israel and the US. So, what happens next?
Less than a month after Iran’s stunning defeat in a brief but consequential war with Israel and the United States, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has emerged politically stronger—at least for now. But as New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman notes to Ian in the latest episode of GZERO World, that boost may be short-lived unless Bibi finds a credible way to resolve the crisis in Gaza. “The people who won this war for Israel...were, for the most part, the very same people who were in the streets of Israel for nine months against Netanyahu and his judicial coup,” he says. That internal contradiction, he argues, is likely to reassert itself as the conflict continues.
Friedman warns that Netanyahu still faces the same three unappealing choices in Gaza: permanent occupation, rule by local warlords, or a phased withdrawal in partnership with an Arab-led peacekeeping force and the Palestinian Authority. If he were to choose door number three, then Bibi would win the next five elections, Friedman says. But doing so would likely require pressure from Washington. With Trump now touting his foreign policy win in Iran, Friedman believes the moment is ripe for the US to push hard for a ceasefire in Gaza.
The conversation also explores the uncertain road ahead for Iran’s leadership. In the wake of military humiliation, Friedman anticipates an internal debate over whether to double down on nuclear ambitions or seek reintegration into the international community. “All real politics in the Middle East happens the morning after the morning after,” he says. As both Israel and Iran attempt to move forward, Friedman suggests the real reckoning—for governments, publics, and the global order—may just be beginning.
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don't miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).
Attacking Iran has given Bibi new political life. But will he face a backlash at home?
As part of the latest episode of GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, New York Times columnist Tom Friedman breaks down what Israel’s recent military success against Iran means for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s political future—and for the ongoing war in Gaza. While Netanyahu appears to be in a stronger position geopolitically and domestically, Friedman warns that the deeper dynamics in Israel haven’t changed as much as they might seem. “The people who won this war for Israel... were, for the most part, the very same people who were in the streets of Israel for nine months against Netanyahu,” he says.
Despite the military gains, Friedman argues that the hard choices about Gaza remain unchanged: partner with an international Arab force and the Palestinian Authority, let local militias take over, or reoccupy Gaza permanently. The first option, he says, would dramatically shift Israel’s regional position: “If Bibi were to choose door number one... he wins the next five elections.” But with Netanyahu’s domestic opposition still raw and ideologically opposed to his vision, Friedman suggests the post-war political chemistry in Israel—and Iran—is about to get “really interesting.”
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don't miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).
Rescuers carry a body at the site of an apartment building damaged during a Russian strike, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Kyiv, Ukraine June 17, 2025.
What We’re Watching: Russia pummels Kyiv, Deal or no deal, Budapest Pride Organizers Rebuff Orban
With world’s attention on Tehran, Russia launches huge attack on Kyiv
Russia last night carried out its deadliest attack yet on Kyiv this year, firing 440 drones and 32 missiles at the Ukrainian capital, knocking down a nine-story apartment building, killing 15 people, and injuring 156. With so much of the world’s attention fixed on the escalating Israel-Iran war, keep an eye on whether the fighting in Ukraine, where peace talks have gone nowhere, worsens significantly as well.
Deal or no deal, G7 edition
US President Donald Trump signed a trade deal with Prime Minister Keir Starmer at the G7 summit in Canada on Monday. The deal, first rolled out in May, lowers US tariffs on UK exports of cars and aerospace engines, in return for greater UK market access for US beef, ethanol, and industrial products. Other G7 members weren’t so lucky: Japan and the European Union both failed to strike a deal with the US, though Trump hinted that agreements with each could be in the works.
Rebuffing Orban, Budapest Set to Host Pride
Pride march is going full steam ahead in Hungary’s capital, despite Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s Fidesz Party passing a law that empowers police to ban such ceremonies. Orban is a vociferous opponent of LGBTQ+ rights: He changed the country’s constitution such that it only recognizes two genders, and said Pride organizers “should not even bother” arranging a parade this year. The Pride event will take place on June 28 – we’ll be watching to see if Orban tries to preemptively halt it.Smoke rises following an explosion at the Shahid Rajaee port in Bandar Abbas, Iran, on April 26, 2025.
Hard Numbers: Deadly blast hits Iranian port, Tragedy strikes Filipino festival in Vancouver, PLO’s Abbas names successor, Liberals take the lead in Oz, Houthis say US strike killed dozens
28: Twenty-eight people are dead following a powerful explosion at Iran’s Shahid Rajaee port in the central southern city of Bandar Abbas on Saturday. The blast, which is believed to be linked to containers of hazardous chemicals, injured more than 1,000 others and caused extensive damage to buildings several kilometers away from the port. Reports suggest that sodium perchlorate — used in missile fuel — may have been to blame, but Tehran denies any military connection to the blast.
9: A celebration of Filipino heritage in South Vancouver, Canada, turned tragic late Saturday when a man drove an SUV into a crowd at the Lapu Lapu Day festival, killing nine people and injuring more than 20 others. A 30-year-old man was arrested at the scene, and while an investigation is underway, authorities have said they are “confident that this incident was not an act of terrorism.” PM Mark Carney offered his condolences and delayed final-day campaigning ahead of Monday’s federal election in the wake of the tragedy — and Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. expressed his sympathy and support for the victims.
170: Late last week, the Palestine Liberation Organization’s leadership created a vice presidency, with 170 of its 172 Central Council members voting in favor of a post that would open the path to a successor for Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas. On Saturday, Abbas, 89, nominated his close confidante, 64-year-old Hussein al-Sheikh, as VP, and the PLO’s executive committee approved it.
52: Australia’s ruling Labor Party looks set to claim victory in the May 3 election, with recent polling showing it ahead of the Liberal-National Coalition opposition, 52% to 48%, according to a Newspoll survey. The latest figures were revealed after PM Anthony Albanese shone in the final leaders’ debate on Sunday.
68: Houthi rebels in Yemen say a US airstrike on a detention center in the northwestern Saada province Sunday night killed at least 68 people, and injured another 47. The US military has not yet commented, but the news came hours after US Central Command said its forces had hit hundreds of targets following President Donald Trump’s order to ramp up the air campaign against the Houthis on March 15. The rebel group says targeting the civilian facility constitutes a “war crime.”
President Donald Trump speaks during a meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in the Oval Office on April 7, 2025. REUTERS/Kevin Mohatt
US-Iran talks to be held this weekend
On Monday, President Donald Trump said that the US has been engaged in “direct” talks with Iran over its nuclear program and said that a meeting with “very high-level” officials is set for this Saturday. That would be a sharp break from previous US-Iran talks, which have occurred mostly through intermediaries.
But Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi denied the “direct” aspect of these talks, confirming that the US and Iranian negotiators will meet in Oman on Saturday, but that they would remain in separate rooms as Omani diplomats carry messages back and forth.
Whatever the format, Trump made it clear that he expects progress. “If the talks aren’t successful with Iran, I think Iran is going to be in great danger,” he warned. “And I hate to say it, great danger, because they can’t have a nuclear weapon. You know, it’s not a complicated formula. Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon. That’s all there is.”
While a breakthrough this weekend is unlikely, the talks suggest that both sides see an advantage in finding out whether a deal with the other side is possible.
There are other hopeful signs of a deal. In response to warnings from US officials of looming air attacks by American forces, the leaders of four of the largest Iran-backed militia groups operating in Iraq told Reuters on Monday that they were prepared to surrender their weapons to Iraqi government authorities. Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani has reportedly met with militia commanders and urged them to disarm, according to Iraqi state officials who requested anonymity.
The militia commanders also said that the Iran Revolutionary Guard Corps, their prime supplier of weapons and money, had agreed to let local group leaders inside Iraq decide how best to respond to Trump’s threats.
Though these militia moves are more likely a tactical retreat than a true surrender, any move to disarm would give the Trump administration a notable foreign-policy victory without an attack. The so-called Islamic Resistance in Iraq, a group of about 10 heavily-armed Shia militias with a total of 50,000 fighters and access to heavy weapons, including long-range missiles, has attacked both Israeli and US military targets in the past.
People walk by as a painter repaints an anti-US mural in Tehran, Iran, on Saturday, March 29, 2025.
Trump warns he’ll bomb Iran over lack of nuclear deal
On Sunday, US President Donald Trump issued a stark warning to Iran, threatening to bomb the country and impose secondary tariffs if Tehran fails to reach a new agreement on its nuclear program. In a telephone interview with NBC News, Trump stated, “If they don’t make a deal, there will be bombing. It will be bombing the likes of which they have never seen before.”
Trump’s threat follows Iran’s rejection of direct negotiations with Washington, which the US President had offered in a letter sent to Tehran on March 12. On Sunday, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian stated, “We responded to the US president’s letter via Oman and rejected the option of direct talks, but we are open to indirect negotiations.”
What’s Trump’s goal? The US administration’s renewed “maximum pressure” campaign seeks to curb Iran’s nuclear ambitions and regional influence through economic damage, and it has sent the rial tumbling. Iran maintains that its nuclear program is solely for civilian purposes, something the US rejects, and a recent report from the International Atomic Energy Agency found that Iran has ramped up its manufacturing of near weapons-grade uranium.Donald Trump gestures after taking the oath of office during his first inauguration in Washington, DC, in January 2017.
Was Iran trying to assassinate Donald Trump?
The Justice Department on Friday charged three men with plotting to assassinate Donald Trump on the orders of the Iranian government.
“The charges announced today expose Iran’s continued brazen attempts to target US citizens, including President-elect Donald Trump, other government leaders and dissidents who criticize the regime in Tehran,” FBI Director Christopher Wray said Friday.
The alleged murder-for-hire scheme was unveiled as investigators interviewed an apparent Afghani Iranian government asset who told them that a contact in Iran’s Revolutionary Guard instructed him to create a plan to surveil and ultimately kill Trump. The plot was unsealed days after Trump prevailed in this week’s presidential election and is purportedly among other ongoing Iranian efforts to take out US government officials on American soil. Another alleged plot targeted Brooklyn-based human rights activist Masih Alinejad. (See Ian Bremmer’s interview with Alinejad in the wake of Mahsa Amini’s in-custody death in Iran from 2022 here).
Two of the three men have been arrested, but one, Farhad Shakeri, remains at large and is believed to be in Iran.
Why would Iran want to kill Trump? During the first Trump presidency, the US and Iran found themselves on the brink of war after Trump ordered a strike that killed Qassem Soleimani, one of Iran’s top generals. Trump also withdrew the US from the Iranian nuclear deal and reimposed economic sanctions on the Islamic Republic.
Iran likely dreads another Trump presidency, not only because the president-elect may pursue another “maximum pressure” strategy, but because he is likely to empower Israel to intensify its fight against Iranian proxies.
A man holds a laptop computer as cyber code is projected on him in this illustration.
How Iran is messing with the US election
Iranian-linked groups have been trying to disrupt the 2024 US presidential election, according to a recent report from Microsoft’s Threat Analysis Center.
On Aug. 10, former President Donald Trump’s campaign claimed that Iranian actors had hacked, stolen, and distributed its internal documents. While the Trump campaign provided few specifics, the claim came a day after Microsoft issued a report detailing Iranian attempts to sow discord online around the upcoming election. The Trump campaign hack appears to line up with what Microsoft called a “spear phishing email” sent from an Iranian-linked group to a “high-ranking official on a presidential campaign.”
Further, Microsoft found that the Iranian group, called Storm-2035, set up four fake news websites, disguised as legitimate American news outlets, with the intention of polarizing American voters on political issues, including LGBTQ rights and the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict. The group used generative AI-based tools, the report said, to write article headlines and rephrase stolen content to boost traction with search engines. They also used AI tools to plagiarize existing US publications, the report said, but didn’t offer additional specifics.
Microsoft said that while they have seen malicious actors from China, Russia, and Iran trying to incorporate generative AI into their operations, “recently many actors have pivoted back to techniques that have proven effective in the past — simple digital manipulations, mischaracterization of content, and use of trusted labels or logos atop false information.” AI isn’t a breakthrough technology for these groups just yet — though they’re clearly trying to incorporate them into their operations.
Clint Watts, who runs the Microsoft Threat Analysis Center, said Iran’s goal is different from Russia’s past attempts to affect US elections. “Russia is very different. They're very focused on shaping the outcome of the election,” he told NPR. “Iran is focused as much on just breaking the ability of an election to occur" and interrupting the mechanics of voting. In 2021, the US Justice Department indicted two Iranian nationals who sent threatening materials to voters and spread disinformation about election integrity in the run-up to the 2020 presidential election.
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