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Iran was the clear loser of its war with Israel and the US. So, what happens next?
Less than a month after Iran’s stunning defeat in a brief but consequential war with Israel and the United States, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has emerged politically stronger—at least for now. But as New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman notes to Ian in the latest episode of GZERO World, that boost may be short-lived unless Bibi finds a credible way to resolve the crisis in Gaza. “The people who won this war for Israel...were, for the most part, the very same people who were in the streets of Israel for nine months against Netanyahu and his judicial coup,” he says. That internal contradiction, he argues, is likely to reassert itself as the conflict continues.
Friedman warns that Netanyahu still faces the same three unappealing choices in Gaza: permanent occupation, rule by local warlords, or a phased withdrawal in partnership with an Arab-led peacekeeping force and the Palestinian Authority. If he were to choose door number three, then Bibi would win the next five elections, Friedman says. But doing so would likely require pressure from Washington. With Trump now touting his foreign policy win in Iran, Friedman believes the moment is ripe for the US to push hard for a ceasefire in Gaza.
The conversation also explores the uncertain road ahead for Iran’s leadership. In the wake of military humiliation, Friedman anticipates an internal debate over whether to double down on nuclear ambitions or seek reintegration into the international community. “All real politics in the Middle East happens the morning after the morning after,” he says. As both Israel and Iran attempt to move forward, Friedman suggests the real reckoning—for governments, publics, and the global order—may just be beginning.
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
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Iran's retaliation shows strategic weakness
In his latest Quick Take, Ian Bremmer unpacks Iran’s carefully calibrated retaliation against the United States after a major American strike on its nuclear program. Tehran launched missiles at a massive US base in Qatar, but warned Washington ahead of time, resulting in no casualties.
“It shows incredible weakness on the part of the Iranian government,” Ian notes, emphasizing the Islamic Republic’s desire to avoid provoking further US escalation.
Ian calls the moment “the biggest foreign policy win for President Trump” so far in his second term, as Iran appears increasingly isolated and risk averse. He also highlights how the regime's top leadership is in hiding, further hampering its ability to coordinate or negotiate.
While the immediate threat of escalation has eased, Ian still warns that “rogue actors” within Iran’s military still pose a risk. For now, though, oil prices are down and the region is holding its breath.
US President Donald Trump is welcomed by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, on May 13, 2025.
Dollar diplomacy: Finance is the focus as Trump heads to the Gulf
In his first diplomatic overseas trip since returning to office, Donald Trump is embarking on a four-day tour through a trio of Gulf states with the goal of bringing home over $1 trillion in deals and investment pledges – and a free $400 million plane for good measure.
The US president will visit Saudi Arabia – his first overseas trip of his debut term was also to Riyadh – as well as Qatar and the United Arab Emirates.
Trump scored an early diplomatic win ahead of his visit when Hamas released Israeli-American hostage Edan Alexander on Monday — a move the paramilitary group framed as a gesture of goodwill toward the president. The release — made without any demands — was aimed at showing the US and Israel that Hamas is serious about pursuing another ceasefire and willing to negotiate, per Jonathan Panikoff, director of the Middle East Security Initiative at the Atlantic Council.
“Hamas clearly believes that the US is the only country — and Trump is probably the only person — with sufficient leverage over Netanyahu to compel him to make a deal,” Panikoff said.
Alexander’s release comes as Israel threatens to escalate its military campaign in Gaza, warning it may move toward full occupation of the strip after Trump’s visit to the region, if no new ceasefire agreement is reached.
White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt hinted that the trip would involve peace talks, too, saying that Trump still aims for a “prosperous and successful Middle East” where “extremism is defeated in place of commerce and cultural exchanges.”
But the Gaza War isn’t likely to be high on the agenda for Trump. Despite the Gulf’s support for Palestine, the focus is instead on business.
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has pledged to invest $600 billion in the US over the next four years, which the Trump administration is trying to push up to $1 trillion. The UAE wants to go a step further, committing $1.4 trillion of investment over the next decade, with the majority of the funds going to AI and energy.
While Qatar has not committed to how much it is planning to invest, they’ve set the tone by readying a $400-million gift to the president in the form of a Boeing 747, raising ethics concerns about the US president accepting such a lavish gift from a foreign government.
The meetings are designed to be symbiotic: Gulf nations are opening their sovereign wealth coffers with the expectation of attracting investment from US tech giants — CEOs including Mark Zuckerberg are among those accompanying Trump on the trip. As these countries push to diversify their economies beyond oil, their decade-long investment promises aim to anchor their economic relevance to the US.
“They want it to be a place where the US thinks of trade with the Gulf countries in the same way that we think of trade with Canada, Germany, or Japan,” says Panikoff.
Hidden figures: Even if these investment pledges reach fruition, the Gulf countries would still have a long way to go until they reach the annual foreign direct investment levels from Japan, Canada, and Germany – the three countries which invest the most in the US. In 2023 alone, Japan ploughed $783.3 billion in the US – mostly in the automobile industry – followed by Canada at $749.6 billion, and Germany at $657.8 billion.
And what about Iran? Like Gaza, this isn’t likely to dominate talks. While Trump’s “maximum pressure” campaign once thrilled Gulf monarchies, they are now more skeptical of US security guarantees and more interested in stabilizing ties with Tehran. If Iran comes up on Trump’s trip, it will be behind closed doors.
“[The Gulf states have] gone largely onto plan B when it comes to Iran,” says Panikoff. “And plan B is détente.”
President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin shake hands as they meet in Helsinki, Finland, in July 2018.
Trump embraces Russia, attacks Ukraine
The realignment was announced at a meeting in Saudi Arabia between US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, which was initially expected to focus on ending the war in Ukraine but ended up being about improving their diplomatic and economic ties. This would end the isolation that Vladimir Putin’s government has endured since he ordered the invasion of Ukraine three years ago.
The meeting – held without the presence of Ukraine or European countries – was a huge win for Putin. The Americans had already signaled that they accepted his terms for talks on ending the war: No NATO membership for Ukraine, no territorial concessions by the Russians, and no US military presence to enforce the peace.
Even as European leaders were scrambling to respond, Trump cranked up the pressure, denouncing Volodymyr Zelensky as a dictator and blaming him for the war. Zelensky replied that Trump is “living in a disinformation space.” Vance denounced him in turn.
Trump’s friends in the Kremlin say Putin and he may meet this month, at which point their plans may be clearer.
Two GOP senators have spoken against Putin, but Trump’s control over his party looks too strong to turn him, which leaves Ukraine in a desperate position, pleading for European help to either keep fighting or enforce a peace that the Americans force on him.
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The rise of a leaderless world: Why 2025 marks a turning point, with Francis Fukuyama
Listen: On the GZERO World Podcast, we’re taking a look at some of the top geopolitical risks of 2025. This looks to be the year that the G-Zero wins. As longtime listeners will know, a G-Zero world is an era when no one power or group of powers is both willing and able to drive a global agenda and maintain international order. We’ve been living with this lack of international leadership for nearly a decade now. But in 2025, the problem will get a lot worse. We are heading back to the law of the jungle. A world where the strongest do what they can while the weakest are condemned to suffer what they must. And the former—whether states, companies, or individuals—can't be trusted to act in the interest of those they have power over. It's not a sustainable trajectory. But it’s the one we’re on. Joining Ian Bremmer to peer into this cloudy crystal ball is renowned Stanford political scientist Francis Fukuyama.
Subscribe to the GZERO World Podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, or your preferred podcast platform, to receive new episodes as soon as they're published.
Podcast: The Top Geopolitical Risks of 2025, a live conversation with Ian Bremmer and global experts
Listen: It's officially the new year, and 2025 will bring a whole new set of challenges as governments react to the shifting policies of the incoming Trump administration, instability in the Middle East, China’s economic weakness, and a world where the global order feels increasingly tenuous. 2025 will be a year of heightened geopolitical risks and global disorder, with the world no longer aligned with the balance of power. So what should we be paying attention to, and what’s the world’s #1 concern for the year ahead? Each year, The Eurasia Group, GZERO’s parent company, forecasts the top political risks most likely to play out over the year. On this special edition of the GZERO World Podcast, Ian Bremmer analyzes the Eurasia Group's Top Risks of 2025 report with Cliff Kupchan, Eurasia Group’s chairman and a leader of the firm’s global macro coverage; Susan Glasser, staff writer at the New Yorker; and Jon Lieber, Eurasia Group’s head of research and managing director, United States. The conversation is moderated by Evan Solomon, GZERO Media’s publisher.
Subscribe to the GZERO World Podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, or your preferred podcast platform, to receive new episodes as soon as they're published.
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Donald Trump faces reporters in the Oval Office on Sept. 11, 2020.
Trump vs. world
The relevant foreign leaders are having none of it. Greenland remains a part of Denmark, though it has governing autonomy on many issues, and Denmark is a member of the European Union. In response to Trump’s latest salvo, French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot told French radio “there is obviously no question that the European Union would let other nations of the world attack its sovereign borders.”
Panama's Foreign Minister Javier Martínez-Acha said Tuesday that “the only hands operating the Canal are Panamanian and that is how it is going to stay.” The US managed the Panama Canal for decades until a treaty signed by the late US President Jimmy Carter in 1977 gave Panama full control in 1999.
And Canada’s outgoing Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said that Trump’s suggestion that the US and Canada should be part of a single country didn’t have "a snowball's chance in hell" of happening.
The odds of Trump accomplishing any of those goals is minuscule. His bargaining, in business and in politics, has always begun with startling demands meant to shock and awe the other side into concessions. But now other governments know that – and they’re more likely than during his first term as president to meet his blunt challenges with blunt responses.
Foreign policy in a fractured world: US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan on global threats and Joe Biden's legacy
Listen: Outgoing US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan joins Ian Bremmer in front of a live audience at the 92nd Street Y in New York City for a rare and wide-ranging GZERO World interview about the biggest geopolitical threats facing the United States, Joe Biden’s foreign policy legacy, and how much will (or won’t) change when the Trump administration takes office in 2025. The world has changed dramatically since Biden entered the White House in 2021, and Sullivan has been the driving force behind some of the administration’s most consequential–and controversial–decisions over the past four years. The outgoing National Security Advisor reflects on his time in office, from managing strategic competition with China to supporting Ukraine in the face of Russia’s invasion to navigating the US-Israel relationship. He warns that bad actors see presidential transitions as moments of opportunity, so it’s imperative that we send a “clear and common message” to both friends and adversaries during what he calls “a huge, plastic moment of turbulence and transition” in global politics.
Subscribe to the GZERO World Podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, or your preferred podcast platform, to receive new episodes as soon as they're published.