Trending Now
We have updated our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use for Eurasia Group and its affiliates, including GZERO Media, to clarify the types of data we collect, how we collect it, how we use data and with whom we share data. By using our website you consent to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy, including the transfer of your personal data to the United States from your country of residence, and our use of cookies described in our Cookie Policy.
{{ subpage.title }}
US President Donald Trump is welcomed by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, on May 13, 2025.
Dollar diplomacy: Finance is the focus as Trump heads to the Gulf
In his first diplomatic overseas trip since returning to office, Donald Trump is embarking on a four-day tour through a trio of Gulf states with the goal of bringing home over $1 trillion in deals and investment pledges – and a free $400 million plane for good measure.
The US president will visit Saudi Arabia – his first overseas trip of his debut term was also to Riyadh – as well as Qatar and the United Arab Emirates.
Trump scored an early diplomatic win ahead of his visit when Hamas released Israeli-American hostage Edan Alexander on Monday — a move the paramilitary group framed as a gesture of goodwill toward the president. The release — made without any demands — was aimed at showing the US and Israel that Hamas is serious about pursuing another ceasefire and willing to negotiate, per Jonathan Panikoff, director of the Middle East Security Initiative at the Atlantic Council.
“Hamas clearly believes that the US is the only country — and Trump is probably the only person — with sufficient leverage over Netanyahu to compel him to make a deal,” Panikoff said.
Alexander’s release comes as Israel threatens to escalate its military campaign in Gaza, warning it may move toward full occupation of the strip after Trump’s visit to the region, if no new ceasefire agreement is reached.
White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt hinted that the trip would involve peace talks, too, saying that Trump still aims for a “prosperous and successful Middle East” where “extremism is defeated in place of commerce and cultural exchanges.”
But the Gaza War isn’t likely to be high on the agenda for Trump. Despite the Gulf’s support for Palestine, the focus is instead on business.
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has pledged to invest $600 billion in the US over the next four years, which the Trump administration is trying to push up to $1 trillion. The UAE wants to go a step further, committing $1.4 trillion of investment over the next decade, with the majority of the funds going to AI and energy.
While Qatar has not committed to how much it is planning to invest, they’ve set the tone by readying a $400-million gift to the president in the form of a Boeing 747, raising ethics concerns about the US president accepting such a lavish gift from a foreign government.
The meetings are designed to be symbiotic: Gulf nations are opening their sovereign wealth coffers with the expectation of attracting investment from US tech giants — CEOs including Mark Zuckerberg are among those accompanying Trump on the trip. As these countries push to diversify their economies beyond oil, their decade-long investment promises aim to anchor their economic relevance to the US.
“They want it to be a place where the US thinks of trade with the Gulf countries in the same way that we think of trade with Canada, Germany, or Japan,” says Panikoff.
Hidden figures: Even if these investment pledges reach fruition, the Gulf countries would still have a long way to go until they reach the annual foreign direct investment levels from Japan, Canada, and Germany – the three countries which invest the most in the US. In 2023 alone, Japan ploughed $783.3 billion in the US – mostly in the automobile industry – followed by Canada at $749.6 billion, and Germany at $657.8 billion.
And what about Iran? Like Gaza, this isn’t likely to dominate talks. While Trump’s “maximum pressure” campaign once thrilled Gulf monarchies, they are now more skeptical of US security guarantees and more interested in stabilizing ties with Tehran. If Iran comes up on Trump’s trip, it will be behind closed doors.
“[The Gulf states have] gone largely onto plan B when it comes to Iran,” says Panikoff. “And plan B is détente.”
President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin shake hands as they meet in Helsinki, Finland, in July 2018.
Trump embraces Russia, attacks Ukraine
The realignment was announced at a meeting in Saudi Arabia between US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, which was initially expected to focus on ending the war in Ukraine but ended up being about improving their diplomatic and economic ties. This would end the isolation that Vladimir Putin’s government has endured since he ordered the invasion of Ukraine three years ago.
The meeting – held without the presence of Ukraine or European countries – was a huge win for Putin. The Americans had already signaled that they accepted his terms for talks on ending the war: No NATO membership for Ukraine, no territorial concessions by the Russians, and no US military presence to enforce the peace.
Even as European leaders were scrambling to respond, Trump cranked up the pressure, denouncingVolodymyr Zelensky as a dictator and blaming him for the war. Zelensky replied that Trump is “living in a disinformation space.” Vance denounced him in turn.
Trump’s friends in the Kremlin say Putin and he may meet this month, at which point their plans may be clearer.
Two GOP senators have spoken against Putin, but Trump’s control over his party looks too strong to turn him, which leaves Ukraine in a desperate position, pleading for European help to either keep fighting or enforce a peace that the Americans force on him.
- Trump's Ukraine peace plan confuses Europe leaders - GZERO Media ›
- Why the US-Ukraine minerals deal changed - GZERO Media ›
- Is the US-Europe alliance permanently damaged? - GZERO Media ›
- A Baltic warning: What Ukraine war means for Europe—and the Russian perspective - GZERO Media ›
- If Trump's foreign policy pushes allies away, can the US go it alone? - GZERO Media ›
- Ukraine ceasefire deal now awaits Putin's response - GZERO Media ›
- Will Trump pressure Putin for a Ukraine ceasefire? - GZERO Media ›
The rise of a leaderless world: Why 2025 marks a turning point, with Francis Fukuyama
Listen: On the GZERO World Podcast, we’re taking a look at some of the top geopolitical risks of 2025. This looks to be the year that the G-Zero wins. As longtime listeners will know, a G-Zero world is an era when no one power or group of powers is both willing and able to drive a global agenda and maintain international order. We’ve been living with this lack of international leadership for nearly a decade now. But in 2025, the problem will get a lot worse. We are heading back to the law of the jungle. A world where the strongest do what they can while the weakest are condemned to suffer what they must. And the former—whether states, companies, or individuals—can't be trusted to act in the interest of those they have power over. It's not a sustainable trajectory. But it’s the one we’re on. Joining Ian Bremmer to peer into this cloudy crystal ball is renowned Stanford political scientist Francis Fukuyama.
Subscribe to the GZERO World Podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, or your preferred podcast platform, to receive new episodes as soon as they're published.
Podcast: The Top Geopolitical Risks of 2025, a live conversation with Ian Bremmer and global experts
Listen: It's officially the new year, and 2025 will bring a whole new set of challenges as governments react to the shifting policies of the incoming Trump administration, instability in the Middle East, China’s economic weakness, and a world where the global order feels increasingly tenuous. 2025 will be a year of heightened geopolitical risks and global disorder, with the world no longer aligned with the balance of power. So what should we be paying attention to, and what’s the world’s #1 concern for the year ahead? Each year, The Eurasia Group, GZERO’s parent company, forecasts the top political risks most likely to play out over the year. On this special edition of the GZERO World Podcast, Ian Bremmer analyzes the Eurasia Group's Top Risks of 2025 report with Cliff Kupchan, Eurasia Group’s chairman and a leader of the firm’s global macro coverage; Susan Glasser, staff writer at the New Yorker; and Jon Lieber, Eurasia Group’s head of research and managing director, United States. The conversation is moderated by Evan Solomon, GZERO Media’s publisher.
Subscribe to the GZERO World Podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, or your preferred podcast platform, to receive new episodes as soon as they're published.
- Foreign policy in a fractured world: US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan on global threats and Joe Biden's legacy ›
- Podcast: Trouble ahead: The top global risks of 2024 ›
- A look back at the Top Risks of 2024 ›
- Exclusive: Ian Bremmer’s Top Risks for 2025 ›
- Top Risks 2025: America's role in the crumbling global order - GZERO Media ›
Donald Trump faces reporters in the Oval Office on Sept. 11, 2020.
Trump vs. world
The relevant foreign leaders are having none of it. Greenland remains a part of Denmark, though it has governing autonomy on many issues, and Denmark is a member of the European Union. In response to Trump’s latest salvo, French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrottold French radio “there is obviously no question that the European Union would let other nations of the world attack its sovereign borders.”
Panama's Foreign Minister Javier Martínez-Achasaid Tuesday that “the only hands operating the Canal are Panamanian and that is how it is going to stay.” The US managed the Panama Canal for decades until a treaty signed by the late US President Jimmy Carter in 1977 gave Panama full control in 1999.
And Canada’s outgoing Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said that Trump’s suggestion that the US and Canada should be part of a single country didn’t have "a snowball's chance in hell" of happening.
The odds of Trump accomplishing any of those goals is minuscule. His bargaining, in business and in politics, has always begun with startling demands meant to shock and awe the other side into concessions. But now other governments know that – and they’re more likely than during his first term as president to meet his blunt challenges with blunt responses.
Foreign policy in a fractured world: US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan on global threats and Joe Biden's legacy
Listen: Outgoing US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan joins Ian Bremmer in front of a live audience at the 92nd Street Y in New York City for a rare and wide-ranging GZERO World interview about the biggest geopolitical threats facing the United States, Joe Biden’s foreign policy legacy, and how much will (or won’t) change when the Trump administration takes office in 2025. The world has changed dramatically since Biden entered the White House in 2021, and Sullivan has been the driving force behind some of the administration’s most consequential–and controversial–decisions over the past four years. The outgoing National Security Advisor reflects on his time in office, from managing strategic competition with China to supporting Ukraine in the face of Russia’s invasion to navigating the US-Israel relationship. He warns that bad actors see presidential transitions as moments of opportunity, so it’s imperative that we send a “clear and common message” to both friends and adversaries during what he calls “a huge, plastic moment of turbulence and transition” in global politics.
Subscribe to the GZERO World Podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, or your preferred podcast platform, to receive new episodes as soon as they're published.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky (L) and former President Donald Trump, meeting in New York City on Sept. 27, 2024.
How will Trump 2.0 approach foreign policy?
Donald Trump’s return to the White House will have massive geopolitical implications. During his first term, Trump’s chaotic foreign policy was driven by his “America First” philosophy, which combined a transactional view of alliances and an isolationist-leaning skepticism about US involvement in foreign conflicts. He withdrew from major agreements, routinely insulted allies (often via tweets), questioned the value of NATO and the UN, launched a trade war with China, cozied up to authoritarian adversaries, and was viewed as an untrustworthy leader across the globe.
Given the tumultuous nature of his initial four years in office, the world is now bracing for the impact of Trump’s return.
Here’s a closer look at what we can expect from Trump on some of the biggest foreign policy issues.
China
Trump 1.0 took a hardline approach to trade with China, which he holds responsible for draining American manufacturing jobs. He imposed several rounds of tariffs that were continued by the Biden administration.
The president-elect has threatened to raise those tariffs further – up to 60%. China, which has been struggling economically, is ramping up exports in order to get ahead of any Trump 2.0 tariffs.
Trump has also threatened to revoke the CHIPS Act, a law signed by President Joe Biden to increase competitiveness with Beijing in the semiconductors race by offering billions to companies that produce in the US. Trump says he prefers to simply slap tariffs on Chinese chips directly.
Taiwan
Trump’s victory is making Taiwan anxious, amid questions over whether he’ll continue to support the self-governing island democracy as it contends with an increasingly aggressive China. The president-elect has called for Taiwan, which Beijing views as a breakaway province, to begin paying the US for defense. By law, the US is committed to providing Taiwan with defensive weapons. The island purchases billions in arms from the US.
Trump has also accused Taiwan, the world’s biggest producer of semiconductors, of stealing the US’s “chip business.”
When asked in October whether he would use military force against a Chinese blockade of Taiwan, Trump said, “I wouldn’t have to” because Xi “respects” him and knows he’s “f— crazy.”
The Middle East
Trump’s election victory is good news for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. During his first term, Trump took numerous steps that aided Netanyahu’s agenda. He controversially moved the US embassy to Jerusalem, recognized Israel’s annexation of the Golan Heights, and said the US no longer considered Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank as illegal under international law. Bibi in a tweet celebrated Trump’s win as “history’s greatest comeback!”
Trump will likely be even more pro-Israel than Biden – former CIA Chief Leon Panetta has even said he expects the president-elect to give Netanyahu “a blank check.”
But Trump has also expressed a desire for a quick end to the war in Gaza and has vowed to bring peace to the region. At a minimum, his election win gives Netanyahu room to delay any cease-fire deal until after Trump’s inauguration.
Saudi Arabia is also likely pleased to see Trump return. He stood by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in the aftermath of the kingdom’s brutal murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, and derailed efforts in Washington to punish Riyadh. Trump could potentially use his strong ties with Saudi Arabia to foster a deal that would see the oil-rich country normalize ties with Israel — though the Saudis still say this won’t happen until the issue of Palestinian statehood is resolved.
Trump’s win also has significant implications with regard to Iran, which is currently locked in a tit-for-tat with Israel that has fueled fears of a wider war in the Middle East.
The US and Iran were on the brink of war under Trump after he ordered the strike that killed Qassem Soleimani, a top Iranian general. Tensions were already high at the time due to Trump’s decision to withdraw the US from the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran and reimpose harsh economic sanctions in a failed bid to get Tehran to agree to a stricter deal.
Trump has pledged to avoid new wars in his second term and in September signaled he was open to talks with Tehran to achieve a new agreement to ensure Iran doesn’t develop a nuclear weapon. But if he once again pursues a “maximum pressure” strategy, it could raise the risk of conflict.
Ukraine
Trump has pledged to end the war in Ukraine “in 24 hours,” but he hasn’t elaborated on how he’ll accomplish this.
As a result, his victory ushers in a new era of uncertainty for Kyiv. Trump, who’s repeatedly praised Russian President Vladimir Putin, opposes continued US support for Ukraine’s war against the Russian invasion. The Ukrainian military would struggle to sustain the fight without continued US assistance.
The dynamic between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is awkward. Trump’s first impeachment in 2019 was tied to his decision to freeze aid to Ukraine as he pressured Zelensky to launch an investigation into Biden over bogus corruption allegations.
Trump has also blamed Zelensky for the war with Russia, though it was Putin who ordered the Russian invasion of the former Soviet republic.
But Zelensky on Wednesday said he had a “great” conversation with Trump as he congratulated him on winning the election. “We agreed to maintain a close dialogue and develop our cooperation. Strong and steadfast US leadership is vital to the world and to a just peace,” he added, praising Trump’s “peace through strength” approach to global affairs.
Putin on Thursday also congratulated Trump, praising him as a “brave man.” The Russian leader added that what Trump has said “about the desire to restore relations with Russia, to help end the Ukrainian crisis, in my opinion, deserves attention at least.”
Mexico
The US-Mexico relationship could suffer under Trump, who routinely rails against the country in relation to immigration, has pledged to conduct mass deportations, and has even suggested the US should use military force against Mexican drug cartels.
Trump has threatened to impose tariffs on America’s southern neighbor — and largest trading partner — even though this would potentially violate the trade deal that he negotiated with Mexico and Canada while in office.
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum is so far playing it cool in the face of these threats. On Wednesday, Sheinbaum said Mexicans have “nothing to worry about” over Trump’s election win.
“We are a free, independent, sovereign country and there will be good relations with the United States. I am convinced of this,” Sheinbaum added.
Europe
Trump’s victory raises many questions about US relations with Europe. Amid ongoing economic woes across the continent, European leaders are unsettled by Trump’s threat to apply blanket tariffs on goods imported into the US. But it remains to be seen whether Trump will make good on this.
Trump frequently clashed with European allies during his first term, using unprecedented and alarming threats to withdraw from NATO altogether as a means of getting them to spend more on defense as part of the alliance.. His win is sparking fresh conversations about the need for Europe to be less reliant on the US for defense.
NATO chief Mark Rutte on Thursday said Trump was “right” to pressure NATO countries to spend more on defense. The NATO chief said he was “looking forward” to sitting down with Trump to discuss issues of concern to the alliance.
Meanwhile, the far right prime minister of Hungary, Viktor Orban, celebrated the US election result as a “much needed victory for the world,” though on Thursday he cautioned that trade relations with a more protectionist administration “will not be easy.”
- The 2024 Paris Peace Forum faces a dysfunctional global order - GZERO Media ›
- UN's Rebeca Grynspan on the world’s debt crisis: Can it be solved? - GZERO Media ›
- Trump's plans for policy & personnel - GZERO Media ›
- Global leaders scramble to align with Trump - GZERO Media ›
- Europe's biggest concerns about Trump's return - GZERO Media ›
- 2024's top 10 geopolitical game changers - GZERO Media ›
- How Trump's assertive foreign policy impacts international relations - GZERO Media ›
- Is Europe ready to embrace Trump's return to power? - GZERO Media ›
- Why cutting USAID will hurt American foreign policy - GZERO Media ›
- Ukraine hopes for Europe's help as US negotiates with Russia - GZERO Media ›
- Trump's weekend of geopolitical success - GZERO Media ›
Exclusive: Americans care most about this issue ...
Polls reflect an American electorate split over who should become the 47th president. So GZERO decided to dig deeper and partnered with Echelon Insights for some exclusive polling to find out what Americans think should be the first geopolitical priority for the next US president, regardless of who ends up in the Oval Office in January.
Our survey of 1,005 voters found that across the political spectrum, a majority of Americans believe the Israel-Gaza war is the most pressing issue for the White House, followed by the Ukraine-Russia war, US-China relations, and then climate change.
Interestingly, climate change was the second most pressing issue for Democrats, with 26% of respondents saying it should be the top priority. Meanwhile, among Republicans, only 5% of respondents answered it was the biggest issue. The Ukraine-Russia war, which Donald Trump has repeatedly vowed to end within 24 hours of taking office, came in second among Republicans’ top priorities, at 24%, compared to third for Democrats, at 18%.
This could be a reflection that Republicans share Trump’s belief that immediate action needs to be taken to end the Ukraine war (even if that comes at the expense of Ukraine), whereas Democrats are more satisfied with the continuation of the current administration’s support for Kyiv.
We also polled Americans on who they trusted more to be alone in a room with Vladimir Putin and found that the responses were almost as equally divided as the polls on who should be the next president, as you can see below:
