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Annie Gugliotta

Hold us accountable: Our biggest calls for 2023

Every year, Eurasia Group releases its Top 10 geopolitical risks for the year ahead. You’ll see the 2024 edition next Monday. But an honest analyst looks back at past forecasts to see (and acknowledge) what he got right and wrong, and I’m going to do that here and now.

Here’s the 2023 full report. To remind you, our Top 10 risks for 2023 were:

  1. Rogue Russia
  2. Maximum Xi
  3. Weapons of Mass Disruption
  4. Inflation shockwaves
  5. Iran in a corner
  6. Energy crunch
  7. Arrested global development
  8. Divided States of America
  9. TikTok boom
  10. Water stress

Let’s take these one at a time …

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Biden's 2024 election vulnerabilities and strengths
Biden's 2024 election vulnerabilities | Quick Take | GZERO Media

Biden's 2024 election vulnerabilities and strengths

Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: Hi, everybody. Ian Bremmer here. And a Quick Take to kick off your week on a Monday here in New York City. And yeah, everyone, everyone talking about those polls, New York Times and Siena showing that Biden is behind Trump, not just in overall popularity, but also specifically in how voters in key swing states will vote. And, of course, that's the Electoral College. That's how you actually get elected president of United States. So, yeah, Biden supporters very concerned about that. But we are a year away, so it is early.

Having said that, a few things that I think are worth paying attention to. Number one, 71% of Americans say Biden, 80-year-old Biden is too old to run for president. Look, very few people actually work regularly with an 80-year-old. So I get it. And in a year's time, I'm fairly confident he's going to be a year older. So this is not something that Biden can do much of anything about. And there is material downside. Having said that, Biden is more obviously aging physically where intellectually, you know, one one-on-one in small meetings, he's still actually able to hold down meetings reasonably well.

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Jane Harman: Trump trial a distraction away from urgent global crises
Jane Harman: Trump trial a distraction away from urgent global crises | GZERO Media | GZERO Media

Jane Harman: Trump trial a distraction away from urgent global crises

GZERO caught up with former US Rep. Jane Harman at the US-Canada Summit in Toronto, hosted by the Eurasia Group and BMO Financial Group.

She shares her thoughts on why Donald Trump's trial in New York helps the former US president politically, and why Finland joining NATO is good for the Finns — and the West.

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Ian interviews Mitt Romney: US political divisions & tough foreign policy calls
Ian interviews Mitt Romney: US political divisions & tough foreign policy calls | GZERO World

Ian interviews Mitt Romney: US political divisions & tough foreign policy calls

Note: This interview appeared as part of an episode of GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, "Sen. Mitt Romney on DC dysfunction, Russian attacks, and banning TikTok" on February 6, 2023.

On GZERO World, Utah Senator Mitt Romney, the 2012 Republican presidential candidate sits down for an exclusive interview with Ian Bremmer to talk debt ceiling drama, Ukraine war fatigue, and pondering war with China. He also has thoughts on the "woke-ism" debate and whether the US should ban TikTok.

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Ukraine: Biggest foreign policy test for the Biden administration
Ukraine: Biggest Foreign Policy Test for the Biden Administration | US Politics :60 | GZERO Media

Ukraine: Biggest foreign policy test for the Biden administration

Jon Lieber, head of Eurasia Group's coverage of political and policy developments in Washington, shares his perspective on Biden's strategy on the Ukraine crisis.

How has Biden's response to the Ukraine crisis been so far?

Well, Ukraine is emerging as a major foreign policy test for the Biden administration who came into office seeming to want to set the Russia issue aside so they could focus on US policy in Asia. The Biden administration wants a diplomatic response because diplomacy is probably all they have. In public opinion polling, Americans say they do not want to get involved militarily in Ukraine, even if Russian invades, but near majority of Americans say they're not following the issue closely either, which means many of them could probably be convinced one way or the other. The White House efforts to deterrence have included a clever play to foil Russia's invasion plans by releasing intelligence about misinformation President Putin was planning on releasing as a pretext for invasion.

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Russia and the U.S. are playing chicken over Ukraine

Russia and the U.S. are playing chicken over Ukraine

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken had a two-hour meeting with Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on Friday, in an effort to lower the temperature after weeks of tense negotiations over Ukraine ended in deadlock. Lavrov described the discussion as "constructive, useful."

The first round of talks between Washington, NATO and Moscow had made little progress, with Russian officials last week describing them as a “dead end” until and unless the West addresses Russia’s security concerns in writing.

Since then, hostilities have flared up.

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What the Afghanistan fiasco means for Biden

What the Afghanistan fiasco means for Biden

If you had asked me two days ago whether the messy withdrawal from Afghanistan would spell doom for Joe Biden at the ballot box, I would have said no.

That’s changing. Here’s why.

Voters normally don’t care about foreign affairs

Most Americans care very little about foreign policy when it’s time to vote. Poll after poll show that voters tend to choose leaders based on their performance (in the case of incumbents) and positions on domestic priorities such as the economy, health care, and culture war issues. Infrastructure at home, for one, matters a lot more.

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Why ‘America first’ means “America involved”
Why ‘America First’ means “America Involved” | GZERO World

Why ‘America first’ means “America involved”

What's the biggest foreign policy misconception that Americans have about the US's role in the world? According to international relations expert Tom Nichols, too few Americans believe that the US, in fact, has a critical role in the world, and that the things Americans enjoy, from cheap goods to safe streets, are made possible because of American global leadership. "Americans have become so spoiled and inured to the idea that the world is a dangerous place that they don't understand that the seas are navigable because someone makes them that way. They don't understand that peace between the great powers is not simply like the weather, that just happens," Nichols tells Ian Bremmer. Their conversation is featured on an episode of GZERO World, airing on US public television – check local listings.

Watch the episode: Make politics "boring" again: Joe Biden's first 100 Days

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