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Top Risks of 2026
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The Debrief
The latest in geopolitical news explained by GZERO Media and Eurasia Group experts.
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Everybody thinks President Emmanuel Macron is on political life support, but Eurasia Group's Mujtaba Rahman has spent a week in Paris and he thinks Macron has a way out.
I'm standing in front of La Rotonde, which is the restaurant where Emmanuel Macron celebrated his win in 2017. That seems like a really long time ago given the absolute political and fiscal chaos that's engulfed France and Macron's presidency over the course of the last one-plus years. Tomorrow, Emmanuel Macron is going to appoint his fourth prime minister in a year and a bit. And even though we don't know who the identity of that prime minister is, here's why I think it might stick.
Macron came very close to pulling an early election this week. In that focused mind, Macron doesn't want an early election, and really no MPs in Parliament wants an early election, except the far right, because they are France's most popular party and they would win that early election. In combination with the fact Macron is now willing to potentially reverse an increase in the retirement age, there may be enough there for restless MPs to do a deal and put this crisis to bed.
Now, the crisis doesn't just matter for France, it also matters for Europe. France is the Euro area's second-largest economy, it's a G7 country, a nuclear power, and across all the major foreign policy issues of our time, the French have been a leading player. It's about the global role he's playing in the world at a time when the US is withdrawing and there are existential and important questions hanging over the future of Gaza, the future of Ukraine where he has been a leading voice. The outcome of this crisis matters way beyond France's borders. It's also going to have really important implications for the rest of the world.
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