Trump wouldn't actually invade Venezuela...would he?
November 04, 2025
VIDEOSGZERO World with Ian BremmerQuick TakePUPPET REGIMEIan ExplainsGZERO ReportsAsk IanGlobal Stage
Site Navigation
Search
Human content,
AI powered search.
Latest Stories
Sign up for GZERO Daily.
Get our latest updates and insights delivered to your inbox.
Global Stage AI for Good Summit
WATCH RECORDING
The Debrief
The latest in geopolitical news explained by GZERO Media and Eurasia Group experts.
Presented by
President Trump reportedly hasn't yet decided whether or not to invade Venezuela. But the fact that a man who got elected on ending endless wars is even considering waging war in the Western hemisphere is remarkable. How did we get here, and what happens next? Eurasia Group's Risa Grais-Targow breaks it down in the latest episode of #TheDebrief
Trump's been cagey on whether or not the US will go to war with Venezuela, but would he? Here's how it could happen and why.
So here's the context. Trump has started taking the war on drugs literally. You've probably seen US strikes on boats in the Caribbean allegedly carrying drugs, an issue that plays well with Trump's base in both red states and swing states and makes Democrats look weak. There's also concerns around migration flows, an issue that is very important for key advisors like Stephen Miller within the cabinet.
But this is about more than appearing tough on drugs and immigration. It's also about regime change. Ousting President Nicolas Maduro is unfinished business from Trump's first term and a key priority for Secretary of State, Marco Rubio.
There's also an element of psychological warfare here. You have a massive US military buildup just off the coast of Venezuela aimed at getting in Maduro's head, and it just might work.
Geopolitics are also key here. Trump is keen to show China that the US is strong in its backyard, Latin America, as we saw with his moves related to the Panama Canal earlier this year. He's also taking advantage of the fact that Maduro's typical allies, Russia, Iran, China, are either weak or distracted and are unlikely to come to his rescue. All of this suggests that the US may be readying for moves against Venezuela.
Obviously, US war with Venezuela would be a huge deal, but it's also about short-term political wins versus a long-term strategy, and that means that it could escalate very quickly.There's also competing interests within Trump's cabinet. For Stephen Miller, this is about testing the limits of presidential power while Rubio is more focused on toppling a leftist regime in the region that he sees as propping up other leftist regimes, including Cuba and Nicaragua.
Then there's Trump himself, who may or may not lose interest, especially if this is something that's not going to deliver a quick win.
So which way is this going to go? Here are a few things to look out for. The first is an escalation of "Maduro Must Go" rhetoric coming from the White House, something that we're just starting to see. The second is a broader campaign against cartels in the region that shifts the US focus to other countries like Mexico and Colombia.
Finally, there's strikes within Venezuelan territory itself, which could put the US on a clear path to escalation, at which point we may be past the point of no return. And unfortunately, the thing about a point of no return is that you don't always know you're there until you've passed it.
Keep reading...Show less
More from The Debrief
Is Trump about to invade Cuba?
May 21, 2026
In Beijing, could Trump trade away Taiwan?
May 13, 2026
Hormuz standoff: Who blinks first?
April 16, 2026
Does the Iran ceasefire stand a chance?
April 09, 2026
Viktor Orbán will lose re-election. But will he leave?
April 01, 2026
Trump likely to attack Iran soon–and may even target Khamenei
February 05, 2026
Brazil's COP30 is all about 'climate triage'
November 18, 2025
In Hungary, Orbán's grip on power is slipping
November 07, 2025
Trump bets big on Russian oil sanctions, but will it pay off?
October 28, 2025
President Macron is down but not out
October 09, 2025
Trump's Middle East Love Triangle
October 07, 2025
Trump's climate "scam" talk at the UN was just that–talk
September 26, 2025
Big oil is getting big mad at Trump
September 11, 2025
Here's why Israel will accept a Gaza ceasefire soon
August 27, 2025
Plastic waste is killing us. But we can't seem to quit it.
August 20, 2025
Trump and Putin's Alaska showdown is all about oil
August 13, 2025
GZERO Series
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer
Puppet Regime
Quick Take
ask ian
Ian Explains
GZERO Reports
GZERO Europe
The Debrief
© 2026 GZERO Media. All Rights Reserved | A Eurasia Group company.
GZERO Daily: our free newsletter about global politics
Keep up with what’s going on around the world - and why it matters.