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Trump wouldn't actually invade Venezuela...would he?
President Trump reportedly hasn't yet decided whether or not to invade Venezuela. But the fact that a man who got elected on ending endless wars is even considering waging war in the Western hemisphere is remarkable. How did we get here, and what happens next? Eurasia Group's Risa Grais-Targow breaks it down in the latest episode of #TheDebrief
Trump's been cagey on whether or not the US will go to war with Venezuela, but would he? Here's how it could happen and why.
So here's the context. Trump has started taking the war on drugs literally. You've probably seen US strikes on boats in the Caribbean allegedly carrying drugs, an issue that plays well with Trump's base in both red states and swing states and makes Democrats look weak. There's also concerns around migration flows, an issue that is very important for key advisors like Stephen Miller within the cabinet.
But this is about more than appearing tough on drugs and immigration. It's also about regime change. Ousting President Nicolas Maduro is unfinished business from Trump's first term and a key priority for Secretary of State, Marco Rubio.
There's also an element of psychological warfare here. You have a massive US military buildup just off the coast of Venezuela aimed at getting in Maduro's head, and it just might work.
Geopolitics are also key here. Trump is keen to show China that the US is strong in its backyard, Latin America, as we saw with his moves related to the Panama Canal earlier this year. He's also taking advantage of the fact that Maduro's typical allies, Russia, Iran, China, are either weak or distracted and are unlikely to come to his rescue. All of this suggests that the US may be readying for moves against Venezuela.
Obviously, US war with Venezuela would be a huge deal, but it's also about short-term political wins versus a long-term strategy, and that means that it could escalate very quickly.There's also competing interests within Trump's cabinet. For Stephen Miller, this is about testing the limits of presidential power while Rubio is more focused on toppling a leftist regime in the region that he sees as propping up other leftist regimes, including Cuba and Nicaragua.
Then there's Trump himself, who may or may not lose interest, especially if this is something that's not going to deliver a quick win.
So which way is this going to go? Here are a few things to look out for. The first is an escalation of "Maduro Must Go" rhetoric coming from the White House, something that we're just starting to see. The second is a broader campaign against cartels in the region that shifts the US focus to other countries like Mexico and Colombia.
Finally, there's strikes within Venezuelan territory itself, which could put the US on a clear path to escalation, at which point we may be past the point of no return. And unfortunately, the thing about a point of no return is that you don't always know you're there until you've passed it.
Here's why Israel will accept a Gaza ceasefire soon
Despite the foot dragging and all the threats of taking over Gaza City, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu will find his way to a ceasefire in Gaza this September. Here's why.
First, domestic pressure is growing. Israel is witnessing some of the largest street protests it's seen in the past two years. They're repetitive, they're consistent, they're ongoing. Second, there's growing international pressure. It is not only the Saudis that are leading the charge for recognition of a Palestinian state at the United Nations this September. It's also the French and the British and other European and Western allies of Israel. By signing on to a temporary ceasefire, Bibi can preclude some of that pressure.
There are also opportunities here. Netanyahu is better positioned against members of his own coalition who have been threatening to leave it if he signs onto that ceasefire, namely, ministers Ben Gvir, Smotrich are in a weaker position right now in the polls that they had been previously. They need him more than he needs them in the lead up to expected parliamentary elections next year.
There's also President Trump and rumors around Washington have it that he will be willing to visit Israel after a stopover in the UK on the 17th to the 19th of September if in fact Bibi finds his way to that temporary ceasefire. And lastly, what Hamas is putting on the table here is an acceptance of the American plan, otherwise known as the Witkoff plan named after the American envoy who tabled it last spring, but couldn't get itself to accept it. So for Bibi not to accept an American plan that he signed off on back in spring is counterintuitive.
So for all those reasons, we think that there will be a temporary ceasefire in September. It's not a total end to the war. It's a 60-day reprieve. Israel can find itself back at war in Gaza, perhaps occupying the entire strip. That will be the negative and brutal scenario. One would hope that diplomacy will find a way and will reign supreme by the end of that 60-day ceasefire.
Trump and Putin's Alaska showdown is all about oil
Trump and Putin are heading to Alaska this Friday for a summit to end the war in Ukraine, but both leaders will have the price of oil very much on their minds, says Eurasia Group's Gregory Brew in the first episode of The Debrief.
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- What We’re Watching: Trump to meet Putin in Alaska, Mali’s military arrests own soldiers, China arrests US-friendly diplomat ›
- Trump and Putin to meet in Alaska to discuss Ukraine ›
- In Alaska, the clock favors Putin - GZERO Media ›