Trump bets big on Russian oil sanctions, but will it pay off?
October 28, 2025
VIDEOSGZERO World with Ian BremmerQuick TakePUPPET REGIMEIan ExplainsGZERO ReportsAsk IanGlobal Stage
Site Navigation
Search
Human content,
AI powered search.
Latest Stories
Sign up for GZERO Daily.
Get our latest updates and insights delivered to your inbox.
Global Stage AI for Good Summit
WATCH RECORDING
The Debrief
The latest in geopolitical news explained by GZERO Media and Eurasia Group experts.
Presented by
President Trump has directly sanctioned Russia for the first time since retaking office, over President Putin's refusal to come to the negotiating table on Ukraine. It's a move aimed at weakening Putin’s war economy, says Eurasia Group's Gregory Brew, but one that could have ripple effects from Beijing to the US gas pump.
Trump is getting tough on Russian oil, but to have a real impact on Putin, he'll likely have to go further, which could undermine his big trade deals and push up gas prices. Here at home, US President Donald Trump is running out of patience with Vladimir Putin who refuses to return to the negotiating table for a ceasefire in Ukraine.
Last week, Trump took the surprising step of putting sanctions on two of Russia's largest oil companies, the first time the US has directly sanctioned Russia since he became president. Now, in theory, these sanctions should prevent Russia from selling oil to its two biggest customers, India and China, who together take more than two-thirds of Russia's crude oil exports an important source of income for Putin's war in Ukraine. But as ever, the devil is in the details.
Russia has been facing sanctions and other Western measures to disrupt its crude exports for years now, and it will probably find a way around these new sanctions if the US doesn't keep up the pressure. That means more sanctions will be necessary, not just on Russia, but on its customers. Secondary sanctions on Indian and Chinese refiners who have been buying Russian crude would help cut off the flow, but there could be blowback. Sanctions could anger the Indian and Chinese governments, undermining Trump's efforts to secure big trade deals with Beijing and New Delhi.
And even if some or all of Russia's customers decide to stop taking its oil, Trump could feel the pain back at home. The disruptive impact on Russia's crude oil exports could push up oil prices, which would, in effect, raise the price of gasoline in the United States. That means that after this big initial blow, Trump is likely to take it slow. He'll look to India to voluntarily back away from Russian oil to the EU to put on some new sanctions of its own, and finally to Putin to return to the negotiating table or risk tougher sanctions ahead. As ever, Trump will look to accomplish his goals without causing a big shock to oil prices. It's a delicate balancing act that Trump will have to manage as he tries to avoid nasty economic shocks that could undermine his position back at home.
Keep reading...Show less
More from The Debrief
Is Trump about to invade Cuba?
May 21, 2026
In Beijing, could Trump trade away Taiwan?
May 13, 2026
Hormuz standoff: Who blinks first?
April 16, 2026
Does the Iran ceasefire stand a chance?
April 09, 2026
Viktor Orbán will lose re-election. But will he leave?
April 01, 2026
Trump likely to attack Iran soon–and may even target Khamenei
February 05, 2026
Brazil's COP30 is all about 'climate triage'
November 18, 2025
In Hungary, Orbán's grip on power is slipping
November 07, 2025
Trump wouldn't actually invade Venezuela...would he?
November 04, 2025
President Macron is down but not out
October 09, 2025
Trump's Middle East Love Triangle
October 07, 2025
Trump's climate "scam" talk at the UN was just that–talk
September 26, 2025
Big oil is getting big mad at Trump
September 11, 2025
Here's why Israel will accept a Gaza ceasefire soon
August 27, 2025
Plastic waste is killing us. But we can't seem to quit it.
August 20, 2025
Trump and Putin's Alaska showdown is all about oil
August 13, 2025
GZERO Series
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer
Puppet Regime
Quick Take
ask ian
Ian Explains
GZERO Reports
GZERO Europe
The Debrief
© 2026 GZERO Media. All Rights Reserved | A Eurasia Group company.
GZERO Daily: our free newsletter about global politics
Keep up with what’s going on around the world - and why it matters.