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Big oil is getting big mad at Trump
So far, Trump's approach to energy policy is to maximize US fossil fuel production that keeps the price of gasoline low, and it's been a winning formula. But in the latest episode of The Debrief, Eurasia Group energy analyst Gregory Brew says the Big Oil honeymoon may be coming to an end.
First, his sweeping tariffs announced earlier this year, shocked oil markets and sent the price of oil tumbling at the same time. Tariffs on things like imported steel means rising costs for US oil companies. It's now more expensive to drill a well in the United States than it was a year ago. Second, Trump is anxious to preserve his relationship with Saudi Arabia, a major oil producer, and also the head of OPEC. As a result, Trump has turned a blind eye to OPEC policy of increasing oil production this year, which has pushed prices down even further. Low prices. Rising costs means less profits for US oil companies. So why does that matter? Well, less profits means fewer jobs, a slowdown in activity and economic pain in places like North Dakota and Texas Centers of the US oil industry that also happen to be deep red states where Trump generally maintains high levels of support. That means some trouble for Trump moving into next year's midterm elections by November of 2026. Drill baby drill might seem like a hollow mantra, and that might hurt Trump's brand where it matters most.
An oil tanker is being loaded at Saudi Aramco's Ras Tanura oil refinery and oil terminal in Saudi Arabia May 21, 2018.
Hard Numbers: OPEC+ further expands oil output, Ukraine attacks drone corruption, UK releases gonorrhoea vaccine, & More
547,000: OPEC Plus, the eight-member oil cartel de facto led by Saudi Arabia, announced on Sunday it would increase oil production by 547,000 barrels a day, the latest in a series of increases that first started in April. In response, oil prices dropped more than 2% on Monday.
6: Anti-corruption authorities in Ukraine charged six people with embezzling funds intended for drone purchases in a “large-scale” bribery scheme. The arrests include one sitting legislator, a National Guard commander, two officials, and two businessmen.
100,000: The United Kingdom rolled out its gonorrhoea vaccines on Sunday, a move that the National Health Service believes will prevent 100,000 cases of the sexually transmitted infection. The vaccine is 30-40% effective, but the hope is that it will stem the growing number of antibiotic-resistant cases of the infection.
12: Former Colombian President Álvaro Uribe was sentenced to 12 years under house arrest on Friday for witness tampering and fraud. He was also barred from public office and fined $578,000, but the right-wing ex-leader plans to appeal the conviction.
0000: Iran’s parliament proposed cutting four zeros from is currency, the rial, as decades of high inflation, sanctions and economic mismanagement have eroded its value. The proposed change would aim to simplify financial accounting and reduce printing costs.Syrian Minister of Economy Dr. Nidal Al-Shaar (left) meets with Saudi Minister of Investment Khalid Al-Falih (right) during an official visit in Damascus, Syria, on July 23, 2025.
What We’re Watching: Saudi invests in Syria rebuild, Ukraine and Russia seek cash, Thai-Cambodia border battle escalates
Saudi seeks a piece of the Syrian pie
Saudi Arabia has pledged to invest $6 billion to rebuild the war-torn Syrian economy, an amount that represents roughly 30% of Syria’s 2023 GDP. Still, the investment is just a tiny fraction of the estimated $400 billion in reconstruction funds that Syria needs. We’re watching to see if the Saudi move spurs other regional powers to take the plunge too – either as partners or rivals to Saudi influence. Meanwhile, Syrian interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa must try to keep a lid on sectarian violence and deal with ongoing attacks from a wary Israel. (Read more here.)
Ukraine and Russia get their money up for more war
The Russian and Ukrainian governments, apparently readying for even more conflict as peace talks stay stalled, are scrambling to shore up their war-fighting finances. On Thursday, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky asked European leaders to help pay not only for new weapons but also for higher wages for his country’s soldiers. Meanwhile, as Russia’s war economy starts to sputter, President Vladimir Putin’s central bank cut its benchmark interest rate by two percentage points to a still-sky-high 18% — its second rate cut this summer.
Thailand-Cambodia clashes could reach “stage of war”
Border clashes between Thailand and Cambodia continue. Thailand has now evacuated more than 130,000 people from the area as acting Prime Minister Phumtham Wechayachai warns the situation “is escalating and could develop to the stage of war.” Violence has erupted in 12 areas along the disputed frontier, killing at least 15 Thais and one Cambodian. Nationalist tensions and a friendship breakup between powerful former leaders Hun Sen of Cambodia and Thaksin Shinawatra of Thailand are further inflaming the crisis.
The Trump admin can do more to help Sudan, says Sen. Warner
In this clip from GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, Senator Mark Warner explains why he’s taken on Sudan’s brutal civil war as a personal and political priority—and why the US, under both Joe Biden and Donald Trump, has failed to act. “More people die every day in Sudan than in Gaza and Ukraine combined,” Warner says, calling the conflict a humanitarian catastrophe hiding in plain sight.
Warner argues that neither side in Sudan’s civil war deserves US backing—“both teams are bad”—but that Trump, in particular, has a unique opportunity to pressure Saudi Arabia and the UAE to stop funding the violence. “It would be a huge policy win,” he says. Yet, despite bipartisan concern, Warner says there’s been no serious focus on the crisis. As US aid gets clawed back and global attention stays elsewhere, Warner warns the price isn’t just moral—it’s geopolitical. “When we don’t step up, China fills the void—for pennies on the dollar.”
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
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Men are seen on a farm in Makurdi, Benue, Nigeria November 29, 2018.
HARD NUMBERS: Attack in northern Nigeria, Toilet stolen from Churchill’s home, and more…
100: At least 100 people were killed in an attack on a village by armed cattle herders in the north of Nigeria. The region has long been plagued by overlapping ethnic and sectarian tensions, as well as land use conflicts between nomadic herders and settled farmers.
13: Niger’s armed forces killed 13 insurgents during raids of jihadist-controlled gold mines near its western border with Burkina Faso. The Liptako-Gourma region in the Sahel – which includes parts of Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger – has become an epicenter of extremist violence in recent years, as Al Qaeda and ISIS linked groups compete for control.
7: Saudi Arabia has executed a blogger who was jailed for seven years on treason and terrorism charges. Press freedom groups say the charges against Turki Al-Jasser, who had accused the government of corruption via an anonymous X account, were trumped up.
15: The Catholic Church will soon have a gamer saint. Nicknamed “God’s influencer,” Carlos Acutis – who died from leukemia at 15 – will become the first millennial to be canonized this September. The Italian teenager was known for building websites documenting Eucharistic Miracles and his love of Halo, Super Mario and Pokémon.
6: Two men were arrested for stealing a $6.4 million golden toilet from an exhibition at Winston Churchill’s birthplace. The 18-carat toilet – designed by Italian artist Maurizio Cattelan – was part of an contemporary art exhibition at Blenheim Palace.
Saudi Arabia's oil price problem
In the first quarter of 2025, Saudi Arabia reported a budget deficit of $15.7 billion—the highest figure since 2021. A big part of the reason is that Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman is investing substantial financial resources in Vision 2030, a sweeping, decade-old development initiative designed to diversify the nation’s economy away from hydrocarbons.
However, with slumping oil prices and even higher spending, Saudi Arabia may have to scale back some of its more ambitious investment plans. In April, reports surfaced that the kingdom was drastically cutting its plans for Neom—a $1.5 trillion infrastructure project aimed at constructing a utopian megacity in the desert.
Here’s a look at how global oil prices have stacked up against Saudi Arabia’s fiscal breakeven price—the level needed to balance the state budget—since 2008.
Muslim pilgrims perform the dawn prayer around the Kaaba, Islam s holiest shrine, at the Grand Mosque complex in Mecca.
Hard Numbers: Saudi Arabia does crowd control for Hajj, US sanctions ICC judges, escaped Thai elephant behaves very well, and more
269,678: With the Hajj – the annual Muslim pilgrimage to Mecca – now under way, the Saudi government has barred more than 269,678 people from entering the country without permits. With over 1.5 million people expected to make their way to Mecca this week, the Saudi Arabia is cracking down in order to control crowd sizes.
9: A wild elephant escaped from the Khao Yai National Park in Thailand and stormed into a nearby grocery store, where he calmly munched on nine packets of sweet treats like rice crackers, dried bananas, and sandwiches, all while leaving minimal damage and taking a snack to go. Bulls in china shops could learn a thing or two.
81: Today marks the 81st anniversary of the D-Day landings, when nearly 160,000 Allied troops stormed the beaches of Normandy to liberate France from Nazi Germany. The day marked a critical turning point in World War Two, and is known as the largest amphibious invasion in military history.
4: US Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced sanctions against 4 International Criminal Court judges on Thursday, in retaliation for what he said was the “illegitimate” targeting of the US and Israel with war crimes accusations. “The ICC is politicized,” Rubio said. “The United States will take whatever actions we deem necessary to protect our sovereignty, that of Israel, and any other US ally.”
Trump’s Middle East playbook: Business first, diplomacy later
Ian Bremmer unpacks the significance of AI, defense partnerships, ongoing Iran negotiations, and the potential lifting of Syria sanctions. He also looks at how Trump’s personal rapport with Middle Eastern leaders, absence from Israel, and business ties are shaping US foreign policy. What does this approach signal about Trump’s priorities abroad—and how might it affect America’s global relationships?