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PA via Reuters The Princess of Wales attends Trooping the Colour, London.
Hard Numbers: Kate steps out, Wash your hands in Tokyo, Hajj heat proves deadly, Sudan’s towns being burned, LA wildfire scorches acres
75: King Charles III celebrated his 75th birthday (actually Nov. 14) with the traditional “Trooping of the Colours” ceremony and birthday parade on Saturday — but it was Kate Middleton, the Princess of Wales, who stole the show with her first public appearance in months. Both Kate and Charles have been dealing with cancer diagnoses, and the princess recently said she expects a few more months of treatment.
977: Japanese health authorities are raising the alarm over an alarming spike in patients with a “flesh-eating bacteria” that can kill within 48 hours if left untreated, with 977 cases reported between January and June. That’s as many as were reported in all of 2023, and with a mortality rate of around 30%, doctors are urging people to wash their hands carefully as the best first line of defense.
14: At least 14 Jordanian pilgrims have perished during the Hajj in Saudi Arabia, and at least another 17 are missing as an intense heatwave has made the annual religious event riskier than usual. Temperatures in Mecca are expected to reach 116 degrees Fahrenheit (47 C) on Monday.
50: New analysis by the Centre for Information Resilience of NASA satellite images shows that the parties in Sudan’s ongoing civil war have deliberately burned at least 50 villages, and possibly as many as 235, largely in the Darfur region. The Rapid Support Forces have been systematically targeting Black ethnicities in the region, particularly the Masalit people, and setting fire to villages as part of a strategy of ethnic cleansing.
10,000: Speaking of fires, a wildfire has blazed over 10,000 acres near Los Angeles, forcing the evacuation of 1,200 people from the Hungry Valley recreation area. The inferno was not contained at the time of writing, and authorities say hot, dry winds are hampering efforts to combat it.President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky participate in the Conference of Ambassadors of Ukraine, in Kyiv President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky participate in the Conference of Ambassadors of Ukraine, in Kyiv on December 23, 2022.
Hard Numbers: Zelensky targeted, Putin inaugurated, Greene satiated, Neom downgraded
2: Ukrainian authorities said Tuesday they had detained two colonels in the State Guard, the unit responsible for protecting Kyiv’s most important officials, who were allegedly plotting to kill President Volodymyr Zelensky and members of his government. The suspects were allegedly working for the Russian Federal Security Service and may have planned to carry out the assassination to coincide with President Vladimir Putin’s inauguration.
5: Speaking of, Putin was inaugurated for his fifth term as president of Russia on Tuesday in a glittering ceremony at the Kremlin. Putin has led Russia since 1999, with a brief stint as prime minister while his puppet Dmitri Medvedev helped change the constitution to make Putin president again. His new term ends in 2030, but his reign likely won’t.
2: Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) met with House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) two days in a row on Tuesday before announcing she would back off on her threat to unseat him. Johnson has now survived the wrath of the far-right despite needing to cooperate with Democrats to pass bills, a move that doomed his predecessor.
1.5: Saudi Arabia has downscaled the first segment of its Neom project, the “line city” that is envisioned to stretch 105 miles through the Saudi desert, from 10 to just 1.5 miles by 2030 amid delays and cost overruns. With around $100 billion of the original $500 billion cost projection already spent, some experts estimate that Riyadh may end up spending $2 trillion if it wants to complete this megaproject.People attend a protest against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government and to call for the release of hostages kidnapped in the deadly October 7 attack on Israel by the Palestinian Islamist group Hamas, in Tel Aviv, Israel, April 27, 2024.
ICC arrests and Rafah invasion threats loom
Some Israeli officials reportedly believe the International Criminal Court is preparing to issuearrest warrants for high-ranking Israeli officials and Hamas operatives. While such warrants may not ever result in a trial, they may be seen as another moral rebuke of Israel.
Neither the court nor Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office have commented, but Bibi did warn last week against ICC interference that “would set a dangerous precedent that threatens the soldiers and officials of all democracies fighting savage terrorism …”
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, meanwhile, is in Saudi Arabia on Monday and Tuesday for a World Economic Forum meeting, where he will discuss another cease-fire and hostage release deal for Gaza. The hope is to reach an agreement before Israel launches a ground operation in Rafah, which is expected soon unless Hamas accepts a deal.
While a cease-fire could stem hostilities, Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan says only “a credible, irreversible path to a Palestinian state” will prevent a repeat of the current situation. This echoes recent Hamas statements, but a two-state solution is a non-starter for Netanyahu.
Israel's Iron Dome anti-missile system intercepts rockets launched from Lebanon towards Israel over the Israeli Lebanese border, as seen from northern Israel, April 12, 2024.
Iran strikes Israel. How will Netanyahu respond?
On Saturday, Iran launched roughly 300 drones and missiles at Israel in retaliation for Israel’s April 1 bombing of the Iranian consulate in Syria. Some 99% of Iranian projectiles were destroyed by a combination of Israel’s Iron Dome defense system, US firepower, and assistance from Britain, Germany, and reportedly Jordan and Saudi Arabia. Israel suffered minimal damage and no casualties.
The question now is what comes next, for the region, the Israel-Hamas war, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and the world’s great powers?
The region
The slow-motion nature of the attack, which gave Israel and its allies hours to prepare, led some analysts to call itmore symbolic than serious. However, it allowed Iran to gauge Israel’s capabilities, see who would come to the Jewish state’s aid, and learn how other regional powers and groups would respond to an Iranian barrage.
Both Jordan and Saudi Arabia came to Israel’s defense, according to Israeli military intelligence. The two monarchies both have close ties to the US, Jordan shares a border with Israel, and there is no love lost between Iran’s Shi’a fundamentalist government and the Saudi Sunni monarchy and religious authorities.
But according toMasoud Mostajabi, deputy director of the Middle East Programs at the Atlantic Council, “… if tonight's attacks escalate into a wider Israel-Iran conflict, regional actors perceived as defenders of Israel may find themselves targeted and dragged into the regional conflagration.”
What might Israel do?
US President Joe Biden wants Bibi to “take the win” and not retaliate, but Israel could use the attack as a reason to bomb Iran’s nuclear program or other Iranian military installations.
Netanyahu’s cabinet is divided. Hardliners are calling for a tough response, with National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir saying Israel should “go crazy.” Netanyahu rival Benny Gantzsaid Israel will “exact a price from Iran in a way and time that suits us.” And Defense Minister Yoav Gallant says Israel has the opportunityto form a strategic alliance with nations, including the United States and Germany.
According to Hebrew-language media reports, the security cabinet has authorized the war cabinet – whose only voting members are Gantz, Netanyahu, and Gallant – to ultimately make the decision. A possible clue to that response came Sunday as Gantz declared that Israel must strengthen the “strategic alliance and the regional cooperation” that allowed it to overcome Iran’s attack.
“Israel is currently weighing options. Strikes on Iran directly are possible, but it appears that the war cabinet is divided over how to respond,” says Eurasia Group analyst Greg Brew. “Bombing Iran in response to Saturday's attack would likely escalate the confrontation and compel Iran to attack again – this time with less warning and stage-managing.”
The Israel-Hamas War and Bibi’s future
Iran has warned that attacks by its allies won’t stop until the war in Gaza ends – but that ending is still nowhere in sight. On Sunday,Hamas rejected the latest proposal for a deal presented a week ago by mediators Qatar, Egypt, and the United States.
According to Eurasia Group and GZERO Media President Ian Bremmer, the Iranian attack is “going to be a big distraction away from the war in Gaza. [This] doesn't mean that Israel suddenly loses its isolation or wins the PR war globally,” he says, “And there's also less pressure for Netanyahu to be forced out domestically in the near future.”
Great powers unite
The US made it clear that it wants no further escalation. Bidenalso told Netanyahu that the US would not participate in any offensive operations against Iran.
The G7 issueda statement affirming their support for Israel and condemning Iran, saying that an uncontrollable regional escalation “must be avoided.” They demanded that Iran and its proxies cease their attacks and “stand ready to take further measures now and in response to further destabilizing initiatives.”
Iransaid a “new equation” in its adversarial relationship with Israel had been opened, and warned of a “much bigger” assault on the country should Netanyahu retaliate to Saturday’s assault.
WhileBremmer does not see this leading to World War III, he says the “potential that this war expands and eventually does drag in the United States and Iran more directly is also going up. ”Oil money meets AI
Discussion of the global race for AI dominance and influence often centers on the United States and China, with Europe forcing itself into the discussion with groundbreaking regulation and the occasional influential startup. But in the Persian Gulf, wealthy states are just as serious about getting in on this powerful — and lucrative — technology.
The New York Times reported last week that the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia plans to create a $40 billion fund solely to invest in artificial intelligence. If this comes to fruition, it will make the Saudi government the world’s largest investor in AI. Next door, the United Arab Emirates has similar ambitions. Through Abu Dhabi’s Advanced Technology Research Council, the government poured millions into a powerful large language model called Falcon, only to release it open-source in September. Meanwhile, OpenAI chief Sam Altman has reportedly sought upwards of $7 trillion from funders including the UAE for a global chip startup.
Alexa Parks, an associate at the Eurasia Group, says both countries have been “relatively ahead of the curve” on AI with the UAE appointing the world’s first AI minister in 2017 and Saudi Arabia declaring in 2020 that it sought a domestic AI market worth $135 billion by 2030.
For Saudi Arabia, in particular, technology is “one of the few non-oil sectors that has successfully and consistently attracted significant foreign direct investment pledges,” Parks says. Both countries have pledged massive amounts to building data centers necessary for running powerful AI, plans that may put them in competition for regional dominance. The two countries seek global influence in the increasingly important AI market, but also financial returns on their investments.
Saudi Arabia and the UAE are in some ways caught in the middle of a broader economic and technological war between the US and China over AI. The US has enacted strict export controls on AI and semiconductor technology with the aim of kneecapping China, especially their military ambitions with AI. G42, one of the UAE’s largest tech firms recently cut ties with China, which should position them to better engage with US-based AI companies in the future. “We haven't seen any Saudi firms be forced to make this choice yet, but it seems likely that it will happen eventually,” Parks says. “Until then, Riyadh will be content to pursue Chinese and Western tech ties and investments to build up its local tech sector as much as possible.”
On Friday, we saw some signals that some US-based AI companies won’t be so quick to take on the potential regulatory risks related to taking Gulf money: Anthropic is reportedly lining up new investors, but already ruled out Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund, citing national security risks.
These countries’ deep-pockets and investments will make them unavoidable players in the artificial intelligence race, but in order to succeed they may need to choose sides in a broader conflict—though some major players will just flatly reject their money.
Sending NATO troops to Ukraine unlikely despite Macron's remarks
Are Western troops likely to end up on the ground in Ukraine?
If Western troops we mean NATO troops, I think it is very, very unlikely indeed. All this is a big flap in response to a question the French President, Emmanuel Macron, said it wasn't off the table, something needed to be thought about. The German chancellor almost immediately clapped Macron back. Didn't really need to do that. You already had the NATO secretary general, others saying more needs to be done to support the Ukrainians, more economic support, more military support, need to get the Americans to tee up for 2024. Most of NATO is all there. But of course, Macron, when he gets frustrated, he gets flustered. He likes to make a name. He likes to make headlines. Got a little trouble for that. It was a bit of an own goal. We've seen that before. But I don't think there's actually that much news being made.
How might Sweden's entry into NATO reshape defense policies and military partnerships in the region?
Well, let's keep in mind that unlike countries like Finland and Poland and the Baltics, which are front line NATO countries vis a vis Russia, Sweden is not. That's one of the reasons why their total defense spend was something like 1.2% of GDP. They will ramp that up significantly. They will reach 2% quickly and not that hard for them to do. They're small economy and very wealthy now that they are finally joining NATO. They also are very good in terms of military equipment. They have a significant defense industry and they export a lot of it. They work closely with NATO allies. So in that regard, they'll be quite significant. I think they matter. But, you know, again, it's a small country. It's really the symbolic fact that the NATO is expanding and continuing to expand because of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Is Saudi Arabia poised to assist Zelensky in advancing his peace plan?
Well, the Saudis did host the most successful one of the most widely attended peace meetings for Ukraine so far. The Russians weren't there, but the Chinese were, as opposed to the meeting that just occurred in Switzerland a little over a month ago. They've also helped to facilitate transfers of POWs between the Russians and Ukrainians. That's very far from saying that we have diplomacy that's going to work, especially because Putin sees no reason. He thinks he's doing well right now and he can't wait to see what happens in the US elections in November. So I don't think there's much going on. But the Saudis certainly want to show that they want to be useful. And it's not just there. It's of course also in their own backyard. They get a lot of money, a lot of leadership. They are leading the GCC. It's a country everybody needs to pay attention to. Certainly very far from where they were a few years ago.
A Russian military transport plane crashes near Yablonovo, Belgorod Region, Russia, January 24, 2024, in this screen grab from a social media video obtained by REUTERS
Hard Numbers: Accusations fly over Russian air crash, diplomats get a booze spot in Riyadh, Korea’s Dior look is a bad one, Egypt catches strays from Houthi resistance, prices stay spicy in Mexico
74: The death toll from Wednesday’s fiery crash of a Russian military plane near the Ukrainian border is up to 74. At least 65 of them were Ukrainian POWs set to be released as part of a prisoner exchange. Moscow says Kyiv shot down the plane, while Kyiv says Moscow was responsible for properly identifying the aircraft as it flew through a warzone. Both sides have been ramping up air attacks – and air defenses – as the ground phase of the war has become a rat-infested stalemate.
1: There will finally be at least one (but only one) store where foreign diplomats can buy booze in the Saudi capital of Riyadh. The location – which will cater strictly to non-Muslims vetted by the foreign ministry – is set to open in the coming weeks. The move is part of the Kingdom’s cautious ongoing efforts to liberalize its strict Islamic social rules in order to attract more tourism and non-oil investment.
2,250: The bag is back in Seoul. Last year, a video emerged showing the South Korean first lady accepting a $2,250 Dior purse as a gift from a prominent Korean-American pastor. “Don’t keep doing this,” she tells him, “never buy something as expensive as this.” In recent days, that scandal has roared back as President Yoon Suk Yeol reportedly squabbles with members of his party over how to address the issue ahead of legislative elections scheduled for April.
40: Houthi attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea are meant to pressure Israel into stopping its siege and invasion of Gaza, but the knock-on effects of that strategy are catching other countries in the crossfire. Egypt’s receipts from the Suez Canal – a major source of Cairo’s hard currency – are already 40% lower than last year, as higher risk (and insurance premiums) scare companies away from the waterway.
4.9: Inflation continued to creep upward in Mexico in January, with consumer prices rising 4.9% on an annual basis in the first half of the month, higher than analysts expected. This is the fifth straight half-month period in which prices have risen, casting doubt on the possibility of the central bank easing rates in the coming months. Mexico will hold a general election in June.Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu attends the weekly cabinet meeting at the the Kirya military base in Tel Aviv, Israel, 31 December 2023.
Could Saudi Arabia get Israel to embrace a Palestinian state?
Amid growing global calls for a cease-fire in Gaza and rapidly escalating tensions across the Middle East, Arab states and the US are increasingly looking towards a longer-term solution that revives the idea of a Saudi-Israel normalization deal that includes the outlines of a Palestinian state.
At least one Israeli leader isn’t completely opposed to the idea: Israeli President Isaac Herzog on Thursday said that Saudi Arabia formally recognizing Israel would be “key to the ability to exit from the war into a new horizon.”
This came just two days after Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhansaid the kingdom would “certainly” be willing to recognize Israel – though only as part of an agreement involving the creation of “a Palestinian state.”
The idea isn’t totally new. Prior to Oct. 7, there was a Saudi-Israel normalization deal in the works too, but Palestinian statehood was not viewed as Riyadh’s top priority at the time.
So just how realistic is this revitalized effort?
“It’s good politics in the US,” and the White House believes “it’s the best way to induce Israel to be more reasonable on the Palestinian issue,” says Hussein Ibish, a senior resident scholar at the Arab Gulf States Institute.
Still there are two big problems.
First, the ongoing war in Gaza. The Saudi ambassador to the US on Thursday said that normalization won't be possible until there's a cease-fire.
Second? An obstacle named Bibi. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Thursday said he has told the US he categorically rejects any calls for a post-war Palestinian state, stating that Israel needs “security control” over all territory west of the Jordan River, which includes the West Bank and Gaza. That’s Bibi’s version of “river to the sea.”
With factions of his hard-right government opposed to making concessions to Palestinians and “no consensus” on governance in post-war Gaza, it’s going to be “difficult to get the necessary pieces aligned over the short-term” for any normalization deals, says Sofia Meranto, a Middle East analyst at Eurasia Group.
Putting Bibi in a corner? But as Washington and Arab countries continue to champion this approach, it could further isolate Bibi at a time when he’s extraordinarily unpopular in Israel.
Netanyahu is standing in the way of an important diplomatic initiative that could strengthen the Jewish State and stability in the region, says Ibish, and the Biden administration, which wants Bibi gone “as soon as possible,” is making the point to the rest of Israel that this could be possible without “obstruction” from the Israeli leader and “his extremist friends.”
Whether this will bear fruit remains to be seen, but it’s a space we’ll be keeping a close eye on in the days ahead.