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A demonstrator looks up at her sign during a rally demanding the Supreme Court uphold the 14th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, which grants citizenship to all individuals born within the country’s borders, in Washington, D.C., USA, on May 15, 2025.
HARD NUMBERS: SCOTUS hears birthright case, Tensions flare between Guyana and Venezuela, More strikes in Gaza, The cat’s out of the gene pool
14: The Supreme Court is reviewing arguments on the Trump administration’s plan to end birthright citizenship. A lower court blocked it, citing the 14th Amendment, which guarantees citizenship for “all persons born or naturalized in the United States.” The White House isn’t challenging the lower courts’ reasoning, but is arguing that the district judges lacked authority to issue nationwide injunctions in the first place.
3: Guyanese soldiers have come under attack three times in 24 hours in Essequibo, an oil-rich border region that both Guyana and neighboring Venezuela claim. Guyana has administered the region for decades, but Venezuela says it intends to have Essequibo included in its gubernatorial elections scheduled for May 25 as a means to fully incorporate the region.
114: At least 114 Palestinians were killed in Israeli airstrikes across Gaza on Thursday, including 56 in Khan Younis. Israel said it was targeting Hamas fighters. The strikes come as Hamas and Israel hold indirect talks on a potential ceasefire and hostage deal.
10.6 million: What do Garfield, Crookshanks, and Puss and Boots have in common? They’re orange and, until now, no one has known why. A group of scientists — with the help of 10.6 million yen ($72,800) in crowdfunding from cat lovers — found that ginger cats lack part of their genetic code, causing cells to produce lighter colors in their fur, eyes, and skin (especially in males). Orange you glad I didn’t say meow?
The Liberian-flagged tanker Ice Energy, chartered by the US government, takes Iranian oil from Iranian-flagged Lana (formerly Pegas) as part of a civil forfeiture action off the shore of Karystos, on the Island of Evia, Greece, in May 2022.
US may target Iranian tankers
The potential impact? Washington previously ordered two such operations in 2023, under the Biden administration, but this prompted Iran to seize foreign ships, including one chartered by Chevron Corp, which increased crude prices. Today, however, prices are under $75 a barrel, so trimming Iran’s exports, possibly by 750,000 barrels per day, would have less of an effect. Cutting Iranian production would allow for increased production from Iraq, and potentially from Russia, which also sells to the Chinese market. Iran reaps annual oil revenues of $50 billion, mostly from sales to China.
Why do it, and will it work? Trump sees the plan as a means of exerting “maximum pressure” against Tehran to damage its nuclear program. The strategy depends, however, on allied nations chipping in to inspect the vessels. There are currently 115 signatories to the Initiative, most of whom are also facing the specter of US tariffs on April 2. We’ll be watching which ones the US approaches for cooperation – and whether Trump will be willing to give concessions in return.
Guyana President Irfaan Ali at the State Department in Washington in 2022.
Venezuela ratchets up tensions with Guyana over Exxon Mobil megaproject
In response, Guyanese President Irfaan Ali triggered a military response, deploying the country’s naval and air forces to defend the oil megaproject poised to remake the economy of one of South America’s poorest nations.
The incursion came just days after US President Donald Trump canceled Chevron’s licenses to exempt some Venezuelan oil exports from sanctions. The maritime escalation followed an attack last month in which a suspected Venezuelan gang opened fire on Guyanese soldiers, injuring six on patrol along the Cuyuní River.
The background: A year ago, Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro signed a law designating Essequibo, a sparsely populated region that comprises roughly two-thirds of Guyana’s territory, as a new state of Venezuela. While Caracas revived its claim to the region in the 1960s, a series of treaties over the last two centuries have repeatedly given Guyana and its colonial forebears control over Essequibo.
Essequibo is rich in deposits of gold and copper, and its seafloor off the coast contains vast oil reserves that Exxon started developing in recent years.
A united front: What Ali’s government lacks in military weapons it seems to be making up for in powerful friends. Washington and London both affirmed support for Georgetown, as did the Organization of American States and the Commonwealth. Guyana’s private sector and the opposition party issued statements backing the government. We'll be watching for signs of how far Venezuela is likely to go to assert its claims over Essequibo.An aerial view of the Pasadena Refining System, Inc., in Pasadena, Texas, from 2017.
Why does the US Import oil despite producing enough for its needs?
The United States is one of the world’s largest oil producers, producing enough crude oil for domestic consumption and exporting millions of barrels daily. In 2023, it exported just over 10 million barrels per day, or b/d, of petroleum to 173 countries and three US territories.
Yet, the US also imports roughly 8 million b/d, mostly heavy crude,60% of which comes from Canada, up from 33% in 2013. US oil refining capacity stood at 18.4 million barrels per day (b/d) as of Jan. 1, 2024. This may seem counterintuitive, but there are several reasons why the US still relies on imports.
Oil quality differences. Crude oil comes in different grades, generally categorized by density (light vs. heavy) and sulfur content (sweet vs. sour). The US primarily produces light, sweet crude, ideal for gasoline. But many US refineries, especially those along the Gulf Coast, are geared up to process sour, heavy crude – the kind produced in countries like Canada and Venezuela. Heavy crude oil is cheaper, and its chemical composition allows it to be used in a greater variety of products, such as diesel, jet fuel, and petrochemicals.
Geographic logistics and costs. US oil fields are concentrated in Texas and North Dakota, making it cost-effective for other regions to import oil from Canada, whose pipeline infrastructure can directly supply US refineries in the Midwest and Gulf Coast. Canada also supplies oil by rail, as its supply exceeds pipeline capacity. Its oil is also sold at a discount, as high as $20 a barrel in the last two years, due to its limited pipeline infrastructure to coastal ports that makes the US its chief customer, as well as competition from increased production of Mexican crude that has saturated the market.
Economics and trade. US producers sell their light crude to international markets, where they can fetch higher prices than domestically. From 1975 to 2015, it was illegal for the US to export crude oil. President Barack Obama lifted the ban as other sources of oil including hydraulic fracking became available, increasing domestic supply. The US Energy Information Administration forecasts that US crude oil production will continue to rise, reaching an average of 13.5 million b/d in 2025, up from a record 13.2 million b/d in 2024.
Energy security strategy. The US has long maintained a policy of diversifying oil sources to ensure energy security, particularly since the 1973 oil embargo by OPEC countries during the Arab-Israeli war, preferring imports from more stable trading partners like Canada. President Donald Trump’s declaration of a national energy emergency on Monday, however, is designed to boost US oil and gas production by expediting drilling permits and removing restrictions on exploration, including offshore and in Alaska. This might make it less necessary to import Canadian oil – an issue of concern to Alberta, whose economy relies heavily on exports to the US. Tariffs on Canadian oil would also make the product more expensive and encourage greater production of US oil, which could also reduce reliance on Canada in the long term.
Oil tanker SCF Primorye, owned by Russian state shipping company Sovcomflot, transits the Bosphorus in Istanbul, Turkey, April 29, 2024.
Hard Numbers: Russia’s oil slump, South Africa mine rescue, Somaliland opposition wins election, Japan buys out workers
3.28 million: Russian exports of crude oil fell to an average of 3.28 million barrels per day in the four weeks leading up to Nov. 17, with shipments from western ports mostly serving Turkey and India falling by nearly 30%. Russia has been trying to restrict flows of oil in coordination with OPEC standards to buoy prices and has pledged further production cuts between March and September of next year.
350: South African authorities are mulling whether to try rescuing at least 350 illegal miners who are hiding in underground shafts at the Stilfontein mine to the southwest of Johannesburg. The miners have remained underground to avoid arrest amid a crackdown on artisanal mining, which is often controlled by gangs. A court order on Monday instructed police to allow those within the mine to leave. Locals say there may be as many as 4,000 miners in the shaft, and authorities are not sure it is safe to send a mission. Some miners have emerged looking frail and malnourished.
63.92: The opposition leader of Somaliland, Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahu — better known as “Irro” — won the presidency of the quasi-independent state with 63.92% of the vote, a clear mandate over incumbent Muse Bihi. Irro is promising to boost economic opportunities in Somaliland, especially for women, and hopes to persuade incoming US President Donald Trump to recognize his government independently of Somalia.
9,219: Over four dozen of Japan’s largest companies have paid out 9,219 employees with early retirement and voluntary severance in 2024, roughly triple last year’s numbers. Japanese corporations are historically very reluctant to fire workers, but the yen’s weakness and sluggish growth are forcing companies to streamline with buyouts.Saudi Arabian flag with stock graph and an oil pump jack miniature model are seen in this illustration.
Saudis face reality on oil prices
Since November 2022, Saudi Arabia has led the grouping of OPEC members plus Russia in maintaining oil supply cuts to try to keep prices as close as possible to an unofficial target of $100 per barrel for Brent crude. Not coincidentally, the IMF estimates Saudi Arabia need $100 barrels to balance its budget as Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman funds hugely expensive development projects as part of his Vision 2030 economic reform plan. Saudi Arabia is currently producing 8.9 million barrels a day, its lowest level in more than a decade.
The lower price will be good news for incumbent politicians facing public anger over broader inflation. That’s also true for Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris, whom Donald Trump has blamed for higher prices for US consumers. The Saudi decision will keep gasoline prices in check through the US election.
Canada's Minister of Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Marc Miller.
Hard numbers: Ottawa pledges fresh immigration crackdown, Gold and ‘Black Gold’ deliver a surplus, US makes big power grid pledge, China cracks down on opioid precursors
5: Canada says it will clamp down further on temporary immigrants, part of its strategy to reduce their share of the population to 5% over the next three years, as frustrations grow about the pace of immigration. Last year, temporary workers made up 6.2% of the population. So far this year, the level has climbed to 6.8%. In recent years, the Liberal government of Justin Trudeau encouraged the arrival of more temporary workers to help employers fill pandemic-related vacancies. But the country’s broader housing affordability crisis has fueled concern about the pace of immigration. A recent Leger poll showed 60% of Canadians said there were “too many immigrants.”
461 million: Gold and “black gold” helped deliver some sparkling economic news for Canada this week. Defying analyst predictions, the country registered a trade surplus in June, exporting $461 million more worth of goods than it imported. It was the first time that had happened in four months. Analysts pointed in part to surging exports of gold as well as oil, which finally began flowing from the Trans-Mountain Pipeline after years of delays.
2.2 billion: The White House has earmarked 2.2 billion to strengthen the US power grid and speed up the green transition. The money, to be matched by nearly $10 billion in private financing, will flow to eight projects across 18 US states. A major focus is to create additional transmission capacity and regional connections so wind farms and other alternative energy sources can make a bigger contribution to power generation.
3: China has committed to tightening regulatory controls on three chemicals used to make fentanyl, the White House said earlier this week. This is the third such move that Beijing has made since the two countries resumed counter-narcotics cooperation last fall. Illicit fentanyl overdoses — known more broadly as “the opioid crisis” — have become a leading cause of death for American adults under the age of 45 in recent years. China is known to have subsidized the production and marketing of fentanyl precursors.The Rainbow Bridge over the Niagara River links the borders of Niagara Falls in Ontario, Canada, to Niagara Falls in New York.
Hard Numbers: Migrants head for US-Canada border, Canada flies fresh F-16 funds to Ukraine, Big Oil plans for a Big Crash, Toronto cans scan plan
191,603: While the immigration crisis at the southern US border has commanded significant attention in recent months, the northern border with Canada is becoming more popular with asylum-seekers, undocumented migrants, and human traffickers. In 2023, officials recorded 191,603 encounters with people crossing into the United States via Canada without papers, more than 40% higher than the year before but still less than one-tenth the volume along the US-Mexico frontier.
60 million: Canada pledged to send Ukraine $60 million in support for F-16 jet maintenance and ammunition. The move, part of a larger $500 million pledge made last spring, comes as congressional infighting, public fatigue, and election jockeying continue to hold up tens of billions of dollars worth of fresh support for Kyiv from the US.
30: Given where gas prices are these days you wouldn’t think it, but global oil giants like Shell, Exxon, Chevron, and Total are carefully preparing for the possibility of another oil price crash, beefing up their production at newer oil fields that are profitable even if oil prices plummet to $30 a barrel. As of this writing, that was less than half the price of a barrel, which is hovering around $75.
6: The Ontario government has canceled a pilot program in which people’s IDs would have been scanned at the entrances to six Toronto-area liquor stores. The program was meant as an experiment to find ways to boost security at liquor stores, but it immediately generated privacy concerns, since the data would have been held in government systems for 14 days.