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Big oil is getting big mad at Trump
So far, Trump's approach to energy policy is to maximize US fossil fuel production that keeps the price of gasoline low, and it's been a winning formula. But in the latest episode of The Debrief, Eurasia Group energy analyst Gregory Brew says the Big Oil honeymoon may be coming to an end.
First, his sweeping tariffs announced earlier this year, shocked oil markets and sent the price of oil tumbling at the same time. Tariffs on things like imported steel means rising costs for US oil companies. It's now more expensive to drill a well in the United States than it was a year ago. Second, Trump is anxious to preserve his relationship with Saudi Arabia, a major oil producer, and also the head of OPEC. As a result, Trump has turned a blind eye to OPEC policy of increasing oil production this year, which has pushed prices down even further. Low prices. Rising costs means less profits for US oil companies. So why does that matter? Well, less profits means fewer jobs, a slowdown in activity and economic pain in places like North Dakota and Texas Centers of the US oil industry that also happen to be deep red states where Trump generally maintains high levels of support. That means some trouble for Trump moving into next year's midterm elections by November of 2026. Drill baby drill might seem like a hollow mantra, and that might hurt Trump's brand where it matters most.
Graphic Truth: Who is still buying Russian oil?
US President Donald Trump’s upcoming summit with Putin has cast a spotlight on oil exports, a key source of revenue for Russia’s war in Ukraine. The White House has been threatening Russia with so-called “secondary sanctions”, while punishing buyers — slapping a 50% tariff on India, the largest buyer of Russian crude in 2025 (more on that here). Here’s a look at the biggest buyers of Russian oil via boat in 2025.
Trump and Putin's Alaska showdown is all about oil
Trump and Putin are heading to Alaska this Friday for a summit to end the war in Ukraine, but both leaders will have the price of oil very much on their minds, says Eurasia Group's Gregory Brew in the first episode of The Debrief.
- The Graphic Truth: Who bought the most Russian oil? ›
- Why is India rebuffing Trump over Russian oil? ›
- What We’re Watching: Trump to meet Putin in Alaska, Mali’s military arrests own soldiers, China arrests US-friendly diplomat ›
- Trump and Putin to meet in Alaska to discuss Ukraine ›
- In Alaska, the clock favors Putin - GZERO Media ›
Graphic Truth: India dismisses Trump’s threats on Russian oil
India has said it will continue purchasing Russian oil, despite US President Donald Trump announcing a 25% tariff and threatening an “unspecified penalty” for doing so last week. New Delhi has ramped up its purchases of discounted Russian crude since US and European sanctions against Moscow took effect in 2022 over the Kremlin’s invasion of Ukraine. But those imports are now in Washington’s crosshairs as Putin continues to ignore Donald Trump’s demands for peace talks with Kyiv. Officials in Delhi defended their position – citing the country’s energy needs – but White House Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller accused India of “financing” Russia’s war in Ukraine. Here’s a look at how important India’s purchases of Russian oil are for both countries.
An oil tanker is being loaded at Saudi Aramco's Ras Tanura oil refinery and oil terminal in Saudi Arabia May 21, 2018.
Hard Numbers: OPEC+ further expands oil output, Ukraine attacks drone corruption, UK releases gonorrhoea vaccine, & More
547,000: OPEC Plus, the eight-member oil cartel de facto led by Saudi Arabia, announced on Sunday it would increase oil production by 547,000 barrels a day, the latest in a series of increases that first started in April. In response, oil prices dropped more than 2% on Monday.
6: Anti-corruption authorities in Ukraine charged six people with embezzling funds intended for drone purchases in a “large-scale” bribery scheme. The arrests include one sitting legislator, a National Guard commander, two officials, and two businessmen.
100,000: The United Kingdom rolled out its gonorrhoea vaccines on Sunday, a move that the National Health Service believes will prevent 100,000 cases of the sexually transmitted infection. The vaccine is 30-40% effective, but the hope is that it will stem the growing number of antibiotic-resistant cases of the infection.
12: Former Colombian President Álvaro Uribe was sentenced to 12 years under house arrest on Friday for witness tampering and fraud. He was also barred from public office and fined $578,000, but the right-wing ex-leader plans to appeal the conviction.
0000: Iran’s parliament proposed cutting four zeros from is currency, the rial, as decades of high inflation, sanctions and economic mismanagement have eroded its value. The proposed change would aim to simplify financial accounting and reduce printing costs.A demonstrator looks up at her sign during a rally demanding the Supreme Court uphold the 14th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, which grants citizenship to all individuals born within the country’s borders, in Washington, D.C., USA, on May 15, 2025.
HARD NUMBERS: SCOTUS hears birthright case, Tensions flare between Guyana and Venezuela, More strikes in Gaza, The cat’s out of the gene pool
14: The Supreme Court is reviewing arguments on the Trump administration’s plan to end birthright citizenship. A lower court blocked it, citing the 14th Amendment, which guarantees citizenship for “all persons born or naturalized in the United States.” The White House isn’t challenging the lower courts’ reasoning, but is arguing that the district judges lacked authority to issue nationwide injunctions in the first place.
3: Guyanese soldiers have come under attack three times in 24 hours in Essequibo, an oil-rich border region that both Guyana and neighboring Venezuela claim. Guyana has administered the region for decades, but Venezuela says it intends to have Essequibo included in its gubernatorial elections scheduled for May 25 as a means to fully incorporate the region.
114: At least 114 Palestinians were killed in Israeli airstrikes across Gaza on Thursday, including 56 in Khan Younis. Israel said it was targeting Hamas fighters. The strikes come as Hamas and Israel hold indirect talks on a potential ceasefire and hostage deal.
10.6 million: What do Garfield, Crookshanks, and Puss and Boots have in common? They’re orange and, until now, no one has known why. A group of scientists — with the help of 10.6 million yen ($72,800) in crowdfunding from cat lovers — found that ginger cats lack part of their genetic code, causing cells to produce lighter colors in their fur, eyes, and skin (especially in males). Orange you glad I didn’t say meow?
The Liberian-flagged tanker Ice Energy, chartered by the US government, takes Iranian oil from Iranian-flagged Lana (formerly Pegas) as part of a civil forfeiture action off the shore of Karystos, on the Island of Evia, Greece, in May 2022.
US may target Iranian tankers
The potential impact? Washington previously ordered two such operations in 2023, under the Biden administration, but this prompted Iran to seize foreign ships, including one chartered by Chevron Corp, which increased crude prices. Today, however, prices are under $75 a barrel, so trimming Iran’s exports, possibly by 750,000 barrels per day, would have less of an effect. Cutting Iranian production would allow for increased production from Iraq, and potentially from Russia, which also sells to the Chinese market. Iran reaps annual oil revenues of $50 billion, mostly from sales to China.
Why do it, and will it work? Trump sees the plan as a means of exerting “maximum pressure” against Tehran to damage its nuclear program. The strategy depends, however, on allied nations chipping in to inspect the vessels. There are currently 115 signatories to the Initiative, most of whom are also facing the specter of US tariffs on April 2. We’ll be watching which ones the US approaches for cooperation – and whether Trump will be willing to give concessions in return.
Guyana President Irfaan Ali at the State Department in Washington in 2022.
Venezuela ratchets up tensions with Guyana over Exxon Mobil megaproject
In response, Guyanese President Irfaan Ali triggered a military response, deploying the country’s naval and air forces to defend the oil megaproject poised to remake the economy of one of South America’s poorest nations.
The incursion came just days after US President Donald Trump canceled Chevron’s licenses to exempt some Venezuelan oil exports from sanctions. The maritime escalation followed an attack last month in which a suspected Venezuelan gang opened fire on Guyanese soldiers, injuring six on patrol along the Cuyuní River.
The background: A year ago, Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro signed a law designating Essequibo, a sparsely populated region that comprises roughly two-thirds of Guyana’s territory, as a new state of Venezuela. While Caracas revived its claim to the region in the 1960s, a series of treaties over the last two centuries have repeatedly given Guyana and its colonial forebears control over Essequibo.
Essequibo is rich in deposits of gold and copper, and its seafloor off the coast contains vast oil reserves that Exxon started developing in recent years.
A united front: What Ali’s government lacks in military weapons it seems to be making up for in powerful friends. Washington and London both affirmed support for Georgetown, as did the Organization of American States and the Commonwealth. Guyana’s private sector and the opposition party issued statements backing the government. We'll be watching for signs of how far Venezuela is likely to go to assert its claims over Essequibo.