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People light candles outside Santa Fe Foundation hospital, where Colombian Senator Miguel Uribe Turbay of the opposition Democratic Center party was shifted to from another hospital, after he was shot during a campaign event, in Bogota, Colombia, on June 7, 2025.
A surge of political violence has revived Colombia’s worst fears
On Saturday, a Colombian presidential candidate was shot in the head at a rally in the country’s capital, Bogotá. Three days later, a series of bombs went off in and around the third largest city, Cali, leaving at least four dead. The sudden surge of violence has many Colombians wondering if the country is headed back to a darker time.
“It’s a painful memory of where we come from,” says Colombia Risk Analysis director Sergio Guzmán. “Back then, political candidates were falling like flies.”
What was “back then”? In the 1980s and 1990s, Colombia suffered the worst of a decades-long internal conflict that left 220,000 dead, tens of thousands missing, and millions displaced. Initially a fight between Marxist rebels and the government, it rapidly expanded to include powerful drug cartels and right-wing paramilitaries. The violence was especially acute during the 1990 presidential campaign, when three candidates were assassinated, at least one of them by Pablo Escobar’s fearsome Medellín Cartel. In the early 2000s the state regained ground from the guerillas and the cartels, laying the groundwork for a 2016 peace accord with the main guerilla groups.
But amid rising violence generally, the assassination attempt on Senator Miguel Uribe has rattled a country on edge.
“The shooting is the most significant assault on a presidential hopeful in several years,” says Antonio Espinosa Calero, Eurasia Group’s Andean Region Researcher. “It has certainly fueled anxiety about instability and violence ahead of the upcoming election.”
The shooting isn’t the only reason for the country’s collective anxiety. President Gutavo Petro hasn’t been able to keep a lid on the drug cartels, crime is on the rise nationwide, and political violence has spread across nearby countries – like Ecuador and Mexico.
Wasn’t there a peace deal? Yes. Under the 2016 peace accord between the government and the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, known as FARC, members of the guerilla group agreed to hand over their weapons to the government, in exchange for amnesty and political participation.
This hasn’t fostered peace? It has not. Instead, the drug cartels – which were not part of the peace deal – have filled the void, along with other guerilla groups that refused the peace. From 2021 to 2024, the number of kidnappings jumped 72%, while the number of extortion cases more than doubled. Cocaine production has reportedly reached record levels. Killings of human rights activists and other social leaders have soared.
Has the president tried anything? Elected in 2022, Petro tried to implement a Total Peace (“Paz Total”) to rid the country of violence. The former guerrilla fighter, Colombia’s first leftist president, tried to reach accords with every major armed group in the country. The plan has failed to bear fruit, as talks with groups like ELN – a dissident rebel group – have repeatedly broken down. The kidnapping of a famous soccer player’s father in 2023 only underscored the sense of chaos.
Politicians’ use of violent rhetoric hasn’t helped the situation, Colombia experts say. Petro is renowned for using provocative language in his social media posts, and he has already hinted at a conspiracy behind the shooting of Uribe.
“The presence of President Petro on social media,” Atlantic Council’s Colombia expert Enrique Millán-Mejía, has contributed to “an environment of political violence.”
Petro’s opponents – Uribe among them – have often responded in kind. The senator himself posted on X in May, “Every day Petro is in power, Colombia bleeds.”
Where does Colombian politics go from here? It’s a boost for the tough-on-crime candidates who seek to replace the term-limited Petro next year. A poll last year found 85% of adults believe the security situation is getting worse, and this assassination attempt will likely increase those numbers.
“The shooting will amplify public demand for change and concerns over safety in Colombia,” says Espinosa Calero, “likely benefiting conservative and tough-on-crime candidates in the lead-up to next year’s general elections.”
Assassination attempt shakes Colombia's political landscape
On Ian Bremmer’s World In 60 Seconds: Ian breaks down the assassination attempt on Colombia's presidential candidate, the US-China trade talks, and Canada plans to hit NATO's 2% defense target seven years early.
Ian's takeaways:
An assassination attempt on a Colombian presidential candidate highlights that “security continues to be a really serious problem,” as opposition momentum grows amid President Petro’s struggles.
On US-China trade, Ian says, “There is real progress happening,” as factory shutdown threats push both sides toward short-term stability, even if long-term trust remains elusive.
And Canada’s plan to hit NATO’s defense target early? “It’s about Trump,” Ian notes, as Ottawa moves to ease tensions with Washington ahead of 2025.
A model of the new Air Force One is seen as US President Donald Trump meets with Qatar Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani at the White House in Washington, D.C., USA, on July 9, 2019.
HARD NUMBERS: Qatar gifts Trump a jet, Soviet spacecraft comes down to Earth, RSF drone hits Sudanese prison, Past Panamanian president heads for Colombia, Pope calls for “no more war”
400 million: US President Donald Trump is set to accept a$400 million “flying palace” from Qatar’s royal family. Legal experts question whether the luxury Boeing 747-8 jet contravenes restrictions on foreign gifts to US officials, but the White House claims Trump is cleared for takeoff if he transfers the plane to his Presidential Library at the end of his term.
53: After 53 years in orbit, the Soviet-era spacecraft Kosmos 482 made an uncontrolled reentry into Earth’s atmosphere Saturday over the Indian Ocean – though its exact location remains unknown. Designed for a mission to Venus, the spacecraft’s 1-meter titanium-encased lander weighs an estimated 1,000 pounds, but the chances of any injuries from its descent are deemed “exceedingly low.” Phew.
20: A suspected drone strike by Sudan’s rebel paramilitary group Rapid Support Forces (RSF) hit a prison in Obeid, North Kordofan, on Saturday, killing at least 20 inmates and injuring 50 others. The RSF has ramped up drone strikes recently in its two-year-old war with the Sudanese government army, targeting civilian areas and refugee camps in a conflict that has already killed 24,000 people and displaced 13 million, per the United Nations.
15: After residing for 15 months inside Nicaragua’s embassy in Panama City to avoid a 10-year prison sentence, former Panamanian President Ricardo Martinelli is heading to Colombia for asylum. The billionaire businessman was found guilty of money laundering in July 2023. His former running mate José Raúl Mulino, is now the president of Panama.
1: There’s a first for everything: this weekend, Pope Leo XVIdelivered his debut blessing from the balcony of St. Peter’s Basilica in Rome. And there was a hint of politics in his message: the new pontiff called for “no more war”, amid conflict in the Middle East, Eastern Europe, Kashmir, and Sudan. He also paid tribute to moms, “including those in heaven,” for Mothers’ Day.A volunteer florist adds baby's breath flowers to a Valentine’s Day rose bouquet on Thursday, Feb. 13, 2025.
Hard Numbers: Pricey Valentines, Splurging on Teslas, China coughs up carbon, Liberia’s Boakai makes bold move, Will Colombia close Escobar trade?, Federal workforce cuts, Exclusive polling on federal cuts
200: Disruptive weather patterns fueled by climate change have inflicted major crop damage in West Africa, where most of the world’s cacao, the raw form of the bean that is processed into cocoa, is grown. The price of raw cocoa, chocolate’s key ingredient, has surged by 200% over the past year. Roses won’t be cheap either. Is there a “bah humbug” equivalent for Valentine’s Day?
400 million: The US State Department’s procurement forecast for 2025, which details purchases the agency expects to make, included $400 million for armored Tesla vehicles. Tesla is owned by someone called Elon Musk. On Wednesday, as this story started to make headlines, the document was updated, changing “Armored Tesla” to “Armored Electric Vehicles,” but the contract value remains the same.
94.5: Despite President Xi Jinping’s pledge that China’s carbon emissions would peak by 2030, the country’s coal plant construction climbed by 94.5 gigawatts in 2024, its highest level since 2015.
457: Liberian President Joseph Boakai has suspended 457 top government officials, including ministers, for failing to declare their assets to the country’s anti-corruption agency. The workers will be out for a month, unpaid, or until they provide the required declarations.
4,000: In Colombia, a bill aims to prohibit sales of merchandise glorifying Pablo Escobar, the notorious drug lord who has been linked to more than 4,000 murders. Vendors are not happy with the proposed law, insisting that Escobar merch sells well and helps support their families.
200,000: The Trump White House on Thursday instructed federal agency leaders to terminate the bulk of their probationary staff. This reportedly could impact as many as 200,000 employees who have worked for the federal government for less than a year. Some staffers in public safety and law enforcement roles are expected to be spared, so it’s unclear how many will be impacted.
59-10: An exclusive GZERO and Echelon poll found deep partisan divides over DOGE’s plans to shrink the US government. The poll found that 59% of Republicans believed cutting 300,000 federal jobs would increase government efficiency, compared to just 10% of Democrats. When it came to its efforts to dismantle USAID, 60% of Republicans support completely overhauling or eliminating the agency, compared to only 12% of Democrats.
How Trump's assertive foreign policy impacts international relations
And the response by President Trump was immediately 25%, maybe 50% tariffs, and shut off visas and shut down diplomatic engagement. And there was immediate response by President Petro that was over the top, and as Trump's own responses are over the top, and going to completely hit the Americans back really hard. Now, America is Colombia's most important trade partner, and the size of these countries is a little bit different. And within a couple of hours, Petro very quietly accepted Trump's terms. The deported Colombians will be accepted back in Colombia, and the trade war with Colombia is in our rearview mirror. Not really a surprise.
So Trump is going out there, and he's saying all these extraordinary, extravagant things. Huge exaggerations about what he demands and what he wants. And if you're Colombia, the response was absolutely on par. I mean, the post that we saw from President Petro, who is also kind of a populist firebrand on the left, isn't enormously popular, frankly, and has had a lot of difficulty in passing economic policies. But he gave it a shot and it was entertaining to watch and read and a lot of Colombians responded well to it. It felt like good old nationalism. And of course, he had to back down. Why? Because you're not allowed to do the same thing that Trump is. It's not just about who's right, it's also about who's powerful. And Trump's more than happy to hit him with a stick. And so that turned out to be a loss pretty quickly for the Colombian government.
There are a lot of other countries that are working the same way. I see this happening with Mexico where the Mexican president has been incredibly careful. US is the most important relationship. Suddenly they are seizing enormous amounts of fentanyl. More in one seizure than they've done in four years under Biden and showing Trump, "Look at what we can accomplish because we know this is important to you." And working to get Chinese trade and investment that is problematic and coming through to the United States out of Mexico and willing to put more money and resources, people on Mexico's southern border to reduce the numbers of people that are coming through Mexico into the United States. They desperately don't want to fight with the Americans. They're going to make a lot of offers. Call it defense. Call it capitulation. But that's definitely what you're seeing.
I see this from Denmark, which is publicly trying to say nothing. There've been some leaks. But in general it's been very careful both from Denmark and all of the Nordic leaders I've spoken to, they've been very, very careful. Nothing public about the challenges that they're having. Of course, privately completely unacceptable that the United States would make demands of Greenland and wouldn't work through a very stalwart, though small, ally. The Danes who do everything the Americans ask in terms of coordinating on military exercises and providing multilateral support when the Americans want more participation in different wars or humanitarian support. You name it, the Danes are there. But that didn't matter to Trump. He said, "I want Greenland."
And they are privately trying really hard to get this out of the headlines to say nothing that would be provocative, not respond the way the Colombian President did, not get Trump to do anything even more angry. And instead, find a way to keep Greenland a part of Denmark, don't vote for independence and keep the alliance stable. Most places around the world, that's what they're doing. They're acting like Mark Zuckerberg and Meta and all of those tech titans that have given the money and have gone down to Mar-a-Lago and are saying, "No, we've always loved you Trump and we want to work with you and please don't hurt us."
But there are a few exceptions and I think it's worth mentioning who I think they are. Exception number one, this may surprise you: Canada. Canada is an exception not because they're unfriendly with the US, not because they don't depend on the US, but because they have an election coming up. Their government fell apart. And now everybody in Canada is angry at the United States with all of this threat of tariffs and we want more money for the Americans for security, and you guys should be a 51st state. Not only are the liberals angry, the conservatives are angry and they have to outdo each other to be tough on Trump in the United States or they think they're going to lose the election upcoming. So the fact is that Trump, I think, made a strategic mistake in going after Canada early because the Canadians are not in the position to respond well given the election.
The other two exceptions, the Europeans who want to be constructive with the US but have a stronger position if they can be collective through the EU and on some areas they can. On Russia-Ukraine, they can be collective, which has helped them bring Trump closer to the European position on Russia-Ukraine in the last three months than he was when he was initially elected. On trade, on tariffs, on China, Europe is more collective and has more regulatory force as long as they can act together. That is going to continue to happen, gives them more leverage, vis-a-vis the Americans.
And then finally the Chinese who don't act collectively, but they are stronger as an individual country. And they're going to be much tougher to engage with as we saw with the first phase one, phase two trade deal. It took a very long time to sort of come together and then they didn't actually uphold a lot of what they promised. A lot of decent conversations, but the Chinese were much more willing to lecture Marco Rubio in their first call with the US Secretary of State than anyone else he has spoken with around the world. Why is that? Because the Chinese want to show they're not going to be pushovers and that they are tougher and bigger and stronger and can hit back the way that many other countries cannot. What does that mean for US-China relationship? Probably going to get worse before it gets better. That would be my bet at this point. But we'll see how much of a deal Trump really wants.
That's it for me. I'll talk to you all real soon.
Opinion: The yellow brick road to a Golden Age
A week into the second Trump administration, the conviction held by many that the world was more prepared for Donald Trump in the US presidency has quickly faded. This weekend’s flare-up between Trump and Colombian President Gustavo Petro over tariff threats for deportation flights further strained any remaining optimism. In its place is a stark reality: Trump is back with a bang.
Trump launched an opening salvo – a campaign not of military might but of the pen. Dozens of executive orders and presidential actions have papered the field, overwhelming and scrambling forecasts of a much hoped-for manageable Trump 2.0.
Within his record-breaking number of executive actions, Trump has begun to lay out a roadmap for the “Golden Age” of America he intends to deliver.
Setting the stage
Trump held the (virtual) spotlight late last week at the World Economic Forum’s annual sessions in Davos, Switzerland, an emerald city showcasing the world’s who’s who. With the global community eager to hear him contextualize his plans, Trump featured a highlight reel of his young administration’s greatest hits including negotiating the ceasefire in Israel-Gaza, saying, “We have accomplished more in less than four days … than other administrations have accomplished in four years. And we are just getting started.”
Many of the headlines relating to these early accomplishments have been devoted to the set of Trump executive orders with clear and specific implications. The decision, for instance, to pardon or commute sentences for certain offenses relating to Jan. 6, 2021, sent ripples through the domestic political environment. As did his order to instruct the attorney general not to take action to enforce the so-called TikTok ban for 75 days. A move by a federal judge in Washington state to place a nationwide temporary restraining order on Trump’s Day 1 “Birthright Citizenship” executive order previews the court challenges ahead for the president’s targeted initiatives.
A Trump 2.0 blueprint
Yet, there is a second set of presidential actions with broader impact that deserve deeper scrutiny. In these, Trump and his team have been more open-ended, memorializing their ambitions across trade and economic policy, national security, and foreign policy for the months and years ahead.
On trade, there was initial relief abroad when Trump did not impose blanket tariffs on Day 1. Instead, he issued a wide-ranging action laying out an “America First Trade Policy,” which includes an instruction to the Department of Commerce, Treasury, and United States Trade Representative to undertake a host of investigations and reviews to address unfair and unbalanced trade. This includes the creation of an External Revenue Service to collect tariffs, duties, and other foreign trade-related revenues. Paraphrasing former vice-presidential candidate Tim Walz during the 2024 campaign – you don’t create a new governmental organization if you don’t plan on collecting the tariffs. Alluding to these plans in his Davos remarks, Trump suggested that if firms do not make their product in America – which is their “prerogative” – they will have to pay some tariff.
In addition to the spat with Colombia, Trump has threatened to impose 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico on Feb. 1. Trump’s near-term focus on his northern and southern borders is almost certainly to apply pressure for concessions on immigration but also ahead of forthcoming renegotiations of the USMCA agreement. And while Europe may escape the first round unscathed, it would do well to pay attention. If Trump can impose tariffs on US allies close to home, he can easily do the same across the Atlantic, where he will be looking for leverage on US LNG sales, European automotive manufacturing, NATO defense spending, and his emerging dream of bringing Greenland into the US fold.
On foreign policy, Trump has set for himselfan aspiration agenda. Gone are the days of isolationism, now replaced by eyes that roam from Canada to the Panama Canal and the “Gulf of America.” In his inaugural address, Trump suggested that the US is a nation “more ambitious than any other.” In a directive to the Secretary of State, Trump codifies this expansionist vision: “From this day forward, the foreign policy of the United States shall champion core American interests and always put America and American citizens first.” To that end, the administration placed an immediate 90-day hold on all new US foreign development assistance pending review and consistency with US foreign policy. A consequential development for US relationships and soft power worldwide.
As the conversations across Europe and the world shift from an election post-mortem to looking forward, the focus has narrowed to an essential question: What kind of America are we in for, and where do we go from here? With a flurry of activity since taking office, Trump has cast aside (misguided) expectations of restraint. His government will be busy on many fronts laying a path toward a golden age.
Lindsay Newman is a geopolitical risk expert and columnist for GZERO.
Colombian President Gustavo Petro speaks during his visit and after a binational council of ministers, in Jacmel, Haiti, on Jan. 22, 2025.
White House: Colombia has agreed to take deported migrants
Petro had posted an announcement refusing to accept the flights early Sunday morning, saying, “The US cannot treat Colombian migrants as criminals. I deny the entry of American planes carrying Colombian migrants into our territory. The United States must establish a protocol for the dignified treatment of migrants before we receive them.”
On Sunday afternoon, Trump posted to Truth Social that he would apply “Emergency 25% tariffs on all goods coming into the United States [from Colombia]. In one week, the 25% tariffs will be raised to 50%.” Trump also imposed a travel ban and revoked the visas of Colombian government officials, their “Allies and Supporters” as well as all party members, family members, and supporters of the Colombian government.
In response, Colombia, the US’ third-largest trading partner in Latin America, threatened a 50% tariff on US goods – a risky prospect given that his country is facing a severe fiscal crisis.
By late Sunday, however, the White House said Colombia had agreed to Trump’s terms and would allow the US to send the migrants back to Colombia. This halted the threatened US tariffs, but the visa suspensions reportedly will remain in place until the first plane of deportees lands in Colombia.
We’re watching to see whether Petro continues to accept Trump's terms – or returns to tit-for-tat threats.
Arauca, Colombia.- The photo shows the site of an attack with explosive devices at a military base located in Puerto Jordán in the department of Arauca, Colombia on September 17, 2024. The president of Colombia, Gustavo Petro, said that "a peace process" that his Government until now maintained with the guerrilla of the National Liberation Army (ELN) is closed, after the attack that left two soldiers dead and 26 wounded in Arauca.
Colombia to declare emergency over rebel violence
Colombian President Gustavo Petro said Monday he will declare a state of emergency after guerilla attacks by the ELN in the northeast of the country killed at least 80 people and forced over 11,000 to flee. The attacks came after Petro suspended negotiations with the rebels on Friday and could prove a fatal blow to his dovish “Total Peace” policy, which aims to end armed violence in Colombia through dialogue.
Background: Colombia’s internal conflict dates back decades but reached an inflection point in 1964, when two left-wing guerilla groups, the ELN and FARC, rebelled against the government. Throughout the 1960s, neither the government nor the guerrilla groups could gain an upper hand, but instability allowed drug cartels exporting to the US to become obscenely wealthy — and well-armed — worsening the violence.
Left-wing groups splintered repeatedly, while wealthy landowners organized self-defense forces that sometimes morphed into far-right death squads. US attempts to aid its key South American ally added more guns and money to the volatile mix, which has killed at least 450,000 people.
The hard line. Petro’s emergency declaration is a callback to the days of his predecessor and political rival Álvaro Uribe, who used emergencies to raise war taxes to fight the insurrectionists and cartels. Petro — a former guerilla — heavily criticized Uribe’s tactics, but the national reconciliation process he put forward instead looks like it’s falling apart. Where the conservatives managed to sign a peace agreement with the FARC in 2016 that has largely held up, the 2023 ceasefire Petro signed with the ELN is in tatters — and he is sending troops back in.