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Here’s what you missed while you were away
As summer winds down this weekend, here are the geopolitical stories you may have missed while your inbox was on “out of office” — the ones we expect will have the biggest impact this fall.
In Sudan, the skies have turned deadly
Drones have become the new face of modern warfare, dominating headlines as Russia and Ukraine trade near-daily aerial strikes. But unmanned aircraft vehicles (UAVs) are wreaking havoc in another of the world’s deadliest, and least covered, conflicts: Sudan.
With drones now entering the fray, the conflict risks escalating into a dangerous new phase, allowing both sides to keep inflicting damage with minimal risks to themselves.
Ever since the SAF recaptured the capital Khartoum in March, the two sides have been locked in a strategic stalemate, with drones enabling both groups to carry out precision strikes hundreds of miles behind enemy lines.
Is Sudan a sign of future of warfare? Read more here.
A surge of political violence has revived Colombia’s worst fears
When a gunman shot Colombian presidential candidate Miguel Uribe in June, it sparked memories of the deadly decades-long internal conflict from late last century when political assassination attempts were a common occurrence.
Fast forward nearly three months, Uribe is now dead, and the violence between dissidents and the military has intensified – there have been multiple reports of mass kidnappings of government soldiers. Left-wing President Gustavo Petro has pledged to clamp down on the violence, but he can’t seem to put a lid on things: the number of kidnappings and killings of human rights activists have soared over the last few years.
This will likely cost the left, politically speaking. The rising violence is prompting more and more Colombians to seek a tough-on-crime leader, damaging Petro’s hopes that a socialist candidate will win next year’s presidential election – the incumbent leader can’t run again.
The shift in Colombia’s politics is also something of a proxy for the rest of South America. Other countries with left-wing leaders, like Bolivia and Chile, have also tilted right, seeking leaders who will keep them safe. Bolivians ousted the socialists from power for the first time in decades. Chile’s elections in November will be the next test for the South American left, before Colombia’s election next May.
Will the rising violence hurt the Colombian left? Read more here.
Is MAGA bailing on Bibi?
In early July, there were some rumblings of discontent within the Trump administration at Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. An Israeli shell had struck a church in Gaza, settlers had attacked a Christian Palestinian village, and the Israeli Defense Forces had bombed the Syrian Defense Ministry in Damascus – against the White House’s wishes.
But the disquiet was only the tip of the iceberg: Trump supporters, especially younger ones, are becoming more and more critical of Israel, questioning the US’s support for the Jewish State. Though younger Republicans aren’t nearly as critical as younger Democrats, this trend is a concerning one for Israel, as the country has relied heavily on US military aid. Republicans have been particularly sympathetic toward Israel in recent history, so to lose their backing would be drastic.
Soon after the piece was published, US Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene – a MAGA firebrand – became the first House Republican to label Israel’s actions in Gaza as a “genocide,” affirming that the GOP is no longer united behind supporting Israel. Read the original GZERO report here.
Is AI why college grads can’t find jobs?
The kids are not alright. Since we opened the Pandora’s Box of chatbots, new grads have faced higher unemployment than the national average for the first time in decades. Which raises the question: are they the canaries in the coal mine that AI-driven job disruption has begun?
“It just seems like there’s not any more entry-level roles,” reports James Kettle, a 25-year-old Columbia University graduate who’s been on the job hunt since May. His experience is echoed in a new Stanford study, which found hiring in AI-exposed occupations for early-career workers is down 13%.
Even if we can’t be certain AI is totally to blame for stealing young people’s existing jobs (yet), it’s making it harder for them to get hired in the first place. Delia Thompson, a 23-year-old University of Virginia graduate who’s been on the hunt for seven months, describes the job process today as “shouting into the void,” as she and other candidates send thousands of AI-assisted resumes through LinkedIn, only for companies to use their own algorithms to sift through the pile – a loop of bots talking to bots. “It makes it feel like a total lottery,” says Thompson.
This is reshaping their political views and how many young people are viewing AI overall. Read more here.
People celebrate after early official results show Bolivian presidential candidate Jorge "Tuto" Quiroga of the conservative Alianza Libre coalition in second place, and as the ruling party Movement for Socialism (MAS) was on track to suffer its worst electoral defeat in a generation, in Santa Cruz, Bolivia, August 17, 2025.
Hard Numbers: Bolivia’s left-wing streak ends, small boats continue sailing to the UK, Canadians strike, Africa wants to put its real size on the map
2,500: Over 2,500 migrants have left France and crossed the English Channel to the United Kingdom in the 11 days since the “one in, one out” deal between the two countries went into effect, the terms of which require the UK to deport one migrant to France before they accept another asylum case. However, removal of these migrants from the UK hasn’t begun yet, and could take up to three months.
10,000: More than 10,000 Air Canada flight attendants are striking over pay despite government back-to-work orders. Canada’s largest airline has begun gradually suspending operations since Thursday as absences surge during peak travel season. The disruption could impact up to 130,000 travelers daily.
14: On most maps, Africa appears roughly the size of Greenland, when in reality it is 14 times bigger, because the standard Mercator map distorts continents further away from the equator. The African Union – a group representing 55 African countries – is taking issue with this, and has backed a plan to replace the standard Mercator map with the Equal Earth Projection map, which accurately reflects Africa’s size as the second-largest continent. On an accurate map other continents appear to shrink in size, and Africa’s spatial dominance greatly increases.Senator and presidential candidate Miguel Uribe Turbay (photo) died on August 11, after being the victim of an attack last Saturday, June 7, while attending a political rally in the Modelia neighborhood of Bogotá.
Hard Numbers: Colombian presidential candidate dies after June shooting, Al Jazeera journalists killed in Gaza, South Korean military dropoff, Chinese ship hits its own man
39: At the age 39, center-right presidential candidate Miguel Uribe died on Monday, nine weeks after he was shot by a 14-year-old boy during a campaign rally in Bogota, the Colombian capital. Before his death, the shooting had catapulted Uribe to the top of the polls for next year’s election. The incident has revived fears in Colombia of a return to political violence, which was endemic in the 1980s and 1990s – read more here.
5: Five Al Jazeera journalists – and one freelance reporter — were killed in an Israeli strike on al-Shifa hospital in Gaza City on Sunday, including prominent Arabic-language correspondent Anas al-Sharif. The Israeli military accused al-Sharif of leading a Hamas cell, a claim that Al Jazeera, the Committee to Protect Journalist and a UN expert have denied.
20%: South Korea’s paltry birthrate is now affecting the size of its military ranks, which have dropped 20% in the past six years to 450,000 troops. This is less than half of North Korea’s military, which numbers 1.2 million. South Korea has conscription – even soccer star Son Heung-min had to complete a military training, albeit a shortened one.
3104: There was some friendly fire, so to speak, in the South China Sea on Monday, as a Chinese warship accidentally rammed a Chinese coast guard ship – Coastguard Vessel 3104 – as it was chasing after a Philippine boat. The South China Sea has been a major area of dispute between Beijing and Manila, ever since China seized the Scarborough Shoal area in 2012.An oil tanker is being loaded at Saudi Aramco's Ras Tanura oil refinery and oil terminal in Saudi Arabia May 21, 2018.
Hard Numbers: OPEC+ further expands oil output, Ukraine attacks drone corruption, UK releases gonorrhoea vaccine, & More
547,000: OPEC Plus, the eight-member oil cartel de facto led by Saudi Arabia, announced on Sunday it would increase oil production by 547,000 barrels a day, the latest in a series of increases that first started in April. In response, oil prices dropped more than 2% on Monday.
6: Anti-corruption authorities in Ukraine charged six people with embezzling funds intended for drone purchases in a “large-scale” bribery scheme. The arrests include one sitting legislator, a National Guard commander, two officials, and two businessmen.
100,000: The United Kingdom rolled out its gonorrhoea vaccines on Sunday, a move that the National Health Service believes will prevent 100,000 cases of the sexually transmitted infection. The vaccine is 30-40% effective, but the hope is that it will stem the growing number of antibiotic-resistant cases of the infection.
12: Former Colombian President Álvaro Uribe was sentenced to 12 years under house arrest on Friday for witness tampering and fraud. He was also barred from public office and fined $578,000, but the right-wing ex-leader plans to appeal the conviction.
0000: Iran’s parliament proposed cutting four zeros from is currency, the rial, as decades of high inflation, sanctions and economic mismanagement have eroded its value. The proposed change would aim to simplify financial accounting and reduce printing costs.Fleeing office workers run from the scene of an active shooter in Midtown Manhattan, Monday, June 28, 2025, in New York City.
Hard Numbers: Shooter kills four in New York skyscraper, Deadly floods in China, Abducted Nigerians killed after ransom payment sent & More
4: A gunman killed four people, including a police officer, at a Midtown Manhattan skyscraper in New York City on Monday. The shooter, identified as Shane Tamura, was armed with an M4 assault rifle when he entered the building, which is home to the headquarters of the National Football League (NFL) and other corporations. Tamura was carrying a note claiming that he suffered from chronic traumatic encephalopathy – a degenerative brain disease common among football players – because of the NFL.
38: At least 38 people are dead after days of heavy rains and flooding in Northern China, prompting President Xi Jinping to initiate “all-out” search and rescue efforts on Monday. The extreme weather has also led officials to evacuate 80,000 residents from Beijing, according to state broadcaster CCTV.
35: Nigerian gunmen killed at least 35 hostages despite receiving a ransom payment of 50 million naira ($32,600) for the release of 56 people that they had abducted from a village in northern Nigeria. Mass kidnappings are commonplace in Africa’s most populous country, and there has been a spate of them in the first half of 2025 (read more here).
1: In a bid to better control online information and protect “moral and ethical values”, Kyrgyzstan’s government has decreed that all internet traffic will be handled by one state monopoly. As part of the move, the small Central Asian nation has also banned online “skin flicks” (sorry for the archaic term, readers, but we’ve got spam filters to beat!)
13: After a case that lasted 13 years, a Colombian lower court judge found former President Álvaro Uribe guilty of bribery on Monday, in what was the first major criminal conviction of an ex-leader in Colombia. The conservative Uribe, who led the country from 2002 to 2010, will likely appeal the ruling, meaning the case is far from over.
Belarussian dissident Syarhei Tsikhanouski hugs his wife, Belarussian opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, after he was released from prison, in this screengrab taken from a social media video released on June 21, 2025.
HARD NUMBERS: Belarus frees dissident, Farmers kidnap Colombian soldiers, Damascus church attacked, & More
5: Belarussian dissident Siarhei Tsikhanouski, husband of the de-facto opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, was freed on Saturday after spending more than five years in jail. US special envoy Keith Kellogg reportedly helped foster the deal. GZERO recently interviewed Tsikhanouskaya here.
57: Colombian farmers in the southwestern region of Valle del Cauca have kidnapped 57 government soldiers. Authorities say the farmers were pressured by local rebel factions that have rejected the 2016 peace deal with the government. For more on rising political violence in Colombia, see our recent piece here.
25: At least 25 were killed in a suicide bombing at a church Damascus, Syria, amplifying concerns about sectarian violence under the government of former-jihadist Ahmed al-Sharaa, who overthrew the Assad regime in December. Syria’s interior minister said the attacker was affiliated with Islamic State – the group itself has not claimed credit.
12: A suspected female suicide bomber killed at least 12 people at a fish market in Borno state in northeast Nigeria on Friday night. Borno is the center point of Boko Haram’s insurgency movement – an insurgency that has been going on for 16 years.
1.8%: War, huh, what is it good for? The Israeli stock market, evidently. The country’s main index reached record highs on Sunday after rising 1.8% following the US attack on Iran’s nuclear enrichment facilities. Since Israel began wider airstrikes on Iran last week, the index is up a total of nearly 8%.
People light candles outside Santa Fe Foundation hospital, where Colombian Senator Miguel Uribe Turbay of the opposition Democratic Center party was shifted to from another hospital, after he was shot during a campaign event, in Bogota, Colombia, on June 7, 2025.
A surge of political violence has revived Colombia’s worst fears
On Saturday, a Colombian presidential candidate was shot in the head at a rally in the country’s capital, Bogotá. Three days later, a series of bombs went off in and around the third largest city, Cali, leaving at least four dead. The sudden surge of violence has many Colombians wondering if the country is headed back to a darker time.
“It’s a painful memory of where we come from,” says Colombia Risk Analysis director Sergio Guzmán. “Back then, political candidates were falling like flies.”
What was “back then”? In the 1980s and 1990s, Colombia suffered the worst of a decades-long internal conflict that left 220,000 dead, tens of thousands missing, and millions displaced. Initially a fight between Marxist rebels and the government, it rapidly expanded to include powerful drug cartels and right-wing paramilitaries. The violence was especially acute during the 1990 presidential campaign, when three candidates were assassinated, at least one of them by Pablo Escobar’s fearsome Medellín Cartel. In the early 2000s the state regained ground from the guerillas and the cartels, laying the groundwork for a 2016 peace accord with the main guerilla groups.
But amid rising violence generally, the assassination attempt on Senator Miguel Uribe has rattled a country on edge.
“The shooting is the most significant assault on a presidential hopeful in several years,” says Antonio Espinosa Calero, Eurasia Group’s Andean Region Researcher. “It has certainly fueled anxiety about instability and violence ahead of the upcoming election.”
The shooting isn’t the only reason for the country’s collective anxiety. President Gutavo Petro hasn’t been able to keep a lid on the drug cartels, crime is on the rise nationwide, and political violence has spread across nearby countries – like Ecuador and Mexico.
Wasn’t there a peace deal? Yes. Under the 2016 peace accord between the government and the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, known as FARC, members of the guerilla group agreed to hand over their weapons to the government, in exchange for amnesty and political participation.
This hasn’t fostered peace? It has not. Instead, the drug cartels – which were not part of the peace deal – have filled the void, along with other guerilla groups that refused the peace. From 2021 to 2024, the number of kidnappings jumped 72%, while the number of extortion cases more than doubled. Cocaine production has reportedly reached record levels. Killings of human rights activists and other social leaders have soared.
Has the president tried anything? Elected in 2022, Petro tried to implement a Total Peace (“Paz Total”) to rid the country of violence. The former guerrilla fighter, Colombia’s first leftist president, tried to reach accords with every major armed group in the country. The plan has failed to bear fruit, as talks with groups like ELN – a dissident rebel group – have repeatedly broken down. The kidnapping of a famous soccer player’s father in 2023 only underscored the sense of chaos.
Politicians’ use of violent rhetoric hasn’t helped the situation, Colombia experts say. Petro is renowned for using provocative language in his social media posts, and he has already hinted at a conspiracy behind the shooting of Uribe.
“The presence of President Petro on social media,” Atlantic Council’s Colombia expert Enrique Millán-Mejía, has contributed to “an environment of political violence.”
Petro’s opponents – Uribe among them – have often responded in kind. The senator himself posted on X in May, “Every day Petro is in power, Colombia bleeds.”
Where does Colombian politics go from here? It’s a boost for the tough-on-crime candidates who seek to replace the term-limited Petro next year. A poll last year found 85% of adults believe the security situation is getting worse, and this assassination attempt will likely increase those numbers.
“The shooting will amplify public demand for change and concerns over safety in Colombia,” says Espinosa Calero, “likely benefiting conservative and tough-on-crime candidates in the lead-up to next year’s general elections.”
Assassination attempt shakes Colombia's political landscape
On Ian Bremmer’s World In 60 Seconds: Ian breaks down the assassination attempt on Colombia's presidential candidate, the US-China trade talks, and Canada plans to hit NATO's 2% defense target seven years early.
Ian's takeaways:
An assassination attempt on a Colombian presidential candidate highlights that “security continues to be a really serious problem,” as opposition momentum grows amid President Petro’s struggles.
On US-China trade, Ian says, “There is real progress happening,” as factory shutdown threats push both sides toward short-term stability, even if long-term trust remains elusive.
And Canada’s plan to hit NATO’s defense target early? “It’s about Trump,” Ian notes, as Ottawa moves to ease tensions with Washington ahead of 2025.