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Indian Army soldiers participate in a mock drill exercise during the Army Day parade in New Delhi, India, January 15, 2016. India celebrated the 68th anniversary of the formation of its national army with soldiers from various regiments, and artillery on display on Friday.
Hard Numbers: Indian weapons find their way to Ukraine, Colombia halts peace talks with ELN, Trump and Harris tie in national poll, canoe operators soak folks in flood-hit region of Nigeria
11: For more than a year now, European countries have been buying Indian weapons and sending them to Ukraine for use against Russian invaders, according to 11 Indian and European defense officials interviewed in a Reuters exclusive. The juiciest bit? New Delhi – which has otherwise maintained good ties with Moscow – has refused Russia’s repeated requests to stop this from happening.
2: The Colombian government suspended peace talks with the Marxist rebels of the National Liberation Army, known by its Spanish acronym ELN, after an attack by the group killed two soldiers. Calling off talks with the ELN – which sat out the historic 2016 peace deal between the government and the larger FARC group – is another blow to leftist President Gustavo Petro’s promise of reaching “total peace” in the country. In July he was forced to scrap negotiations with another large faction of holdout militants.
47: With less than two months until Election Day, Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are in a dead heat, tied at 47% apiece in a new national poll. In Pennsylvania, a key swing state, polls gave Harris an advantage of between one and four points. The margin of error in the state polls was just under 4 points.
80,000: People in the flood-battered northeastern Nigerian state of Borno are reeling at the price of canoe rides, with operators charging as much as 80,000 naira (about $50) for a short journey. To put that in perspective, that single ride would cost more than the local monthly minimum wage. Borno has suffered severe floods, and a related prison break, since a dam burst amid unusually heavy rains in Central and Eastern Africa.Guerrillas of the Central General Staff (EMC), a faction of the FARC that rejected the 2016 peace agreement and continued the armed struggle, inspect vehicles at a checkpoint installed on a highway in the Llanos del Yari, Colombia April 12, 2024.
Colombia ditches cease-fire with rebel groups
The Colombian government on Tuesday suspended a cease-fire with a major faction of Marxist guerrillas, highlighting the challenges to President Gustavo Petro’s attempts to rein in violence.
The background: Back in 2016, the Colombian government signed a historic peace deal with the FARC, the country’s largest rebel group. Dissident fighters who rejected those accords formed the EMC, which operates in about two-thirds of Colombia’s provinces and often provides social services that the government cannot.
Since last year, the government has been talking peace with the EMC, which has split into two main factions. The government has canceled the cease-fire with the larger of the two because its fighters have violated its terms, but it remains in talks with the smaller one.
The EMC negotiations have run alongside efforts to reach peace with other holdout Marxist groups and drug cartels, which have expanded into territory abandoned by the FARC.
Petro, a leftist former guerilla himself, was elected in 2022 in part on pledges to secure “total peace” by focusing on poverty and other root causes of militancy. But amid rising violence, he’s run into a problem: Without a firmer state presence and control, it’s hard to win local hearts and minds with social policy.
For more: See our 2022 interview with Petro here.
Suspended Jewish Columbia and Barnard students participate in a press conference outside the president of Columbia University’s house on April 23, 2024, in Manhattan, New York.
Hard Numbers: Columbia punishes deans, Iran boosts missile output, UN accuses Rwanda of fighting in Congo, Colombia protects the forest
3: Columbia University on Monday removed three deans from their positions over antisemitic text messages they exchanged in a group chat during a late-May event about Jewish life on campus in the wake of protests about Oct. 7 and the war in Gaza. The three have been placed on indefinite leave. For our complete on-the-ground coverage of the upheaval at Columbia this spring, led by GZERO’s Riley Callanan, see here.
2: Iran has been ramping up its output of ballistic missiles at two key production facilities, according to satellite imagery. Tehran’s most prominent buyers of the missiles include the Houthi rebels in Yemen, Hezbollah paramilitaries in Lebanon and, of course, Vladimir Putin’s Russia, which signed a missile deal with Iran in 2022.
3,000-4,000: A new UN report alleges that 3,000-4,000 regular Rwandan Army forces are fighting alongside M23 rebels in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, a serious allegation that follows years of accusations that Rwanda is deliberately destabilizing its neighbor. Alarmingly, the report also implicates Uganda — which had deployed a force to fight the rebels as part of a regional military intervention to support Congo — in providing support for M23, essentially playing both sides of the conflict.
305: Deforestation in Colombia fell by more than a third last year, to just 305 square miles, the lowest figure on record. The decline comes atop a 20% fall the previous year. About half of the deforestation was in the Colombian Amazon. President Gustavo Petro has sought to rein in corporate access to the rainforest, but orders from local guerilla groups to stop cutting down trees have also helped. Experts warn that despite progress, droughts caused by the hot-weather El Niño weather pattern this year could push up deforestation.
The Galaxy Leader commercial ship, seized by Yemen's Houthis last month, is seen off the coast of al-Salif, Yemen, December 5, 2023.
Hard Numbers: Migrant boat capsizes off Yemen coast, US banana giant found liable for murders, EU stocks up on bird flu vaccines, “Pink slime” crisis in America
8: A South Florida jury found US banana giant Chiquita liable for the deaths of eight men killed by the United Self-Defense Forces of Colombia, or AUC, a right-wing paramilitary group designated as terrorists by the US. Chiquita, which financed the AUC with nearly $2 million, was ordered to pay the victims’ families $38.3 million in penalties. Under its former name, the United Fruit Company, Chiquita was famously meddlesome in Latin American politics – its infamous 1928 massacre of striking banana workers in Colombia was immortalized in Nobel laureate Gabriel García Marquez’s “One Hundred Years of Solitude.”
40 million: These vaccines are for the birds – literally. The European Union has secured 40 million doses of bird flu vaccine as cases of the disease continue to rise. So far, at least 10 US states have reported outbreaks among farm animals in recent months, with three cases of the illness jumping to humans.
1,265: Pink slime is oozing through America. A new study has found that at least 1,265 websites are masquerading as local news outlets while drawing funding from dark money sources or openly political financiers on the left and right. The sites are particularly concentrated in swing states. The grossest part of the story? Owing to the long-standing decline of local journalism, these imposter sites, known as “pink slime” (a beef industry term), now outnumber legitimate local outlets for the first time.
Ecuador's President Daniel Noboa looks on as his wife Lavinia Valbonesi (not pictured) takes part in a referendum that asks voters to support mostly security-related questions to fight rising violence, in Guayaquil, Ecuador April 21, 2024.
Ecuador votes to get tough on drugs
Ecuadorians showed overwhelming support for a government crackdown on drug-related violence in referendums this weekend in what could become a regional trend. Quito won support for joint police-military patrols, extradition of wanted criminals, tighter gun control, and tougher punishments for murder and drug trafficking, among other measures.
Cocaine boom: Ecuador had long maintained a reputation for tranquility despite being sandwiched between the major cocaine production hubs of Colombia and Peru. Coke is in the midst of a major resurgence, according to the UN Office on Drugs and Crime, with seven straight years of growing use.
Consequently, traffickers are trying to ship more blow than ever to the US, and increasingly doing so through Ecuador’s conveniently located ports. With the drugs come weapons, money, and violence, tearing at the social fabric. In August of last year, presidential candidate Fernando Villavicencio was assassinated after receiving death threats from gang leader Jose Adolfo Macias, who later escaped prison.
Iron fist: Ecuador is far from alone in experiencing a surge in drug violence, and leaders in Latin America are looking at Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele’s “mano dura” (iron fist) crackdown as an example.
“Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa took from the Bukele playbook in realizing that citizens are open to more draconian type measures,” says Eurasia Group associate Yael Sternberg, though she emphasized that the actual policies and problems are different.
If it pays off for Noboa like it has for Bukele, Sternberg says Chile is the country to watch next, with a growing crime issue and elections next year.
Cows graze in a deforested pasture on the Yari plains, in Caqueta, Colombia March 3, 2021. Picture taken March 3, 2021.
Deforestation surges in Colombia – and you’ll never guess why
For years, Colombian rebels and narcos perfected the art of kidnapping people for ransom – now they are holding the rainforest hostage.
New figures show that after declining for many years, deforestation in the Andean country has shot up 40% in each of the last two quarters.
The culprit? A major armed group that controls vast swathes of the jungle rescinded an earlier order to protect the vital forest resource. The “Estado Mayor Central,” as the guerilla command is known, is now using the rainforest as a bargaining chip in peace talks with the government, by allowing, or forcing, local farmers to clear trees for cattle or coca farms.
By way of background: In 2016, the government signed a peace accord that ended decades of war with the FARC, the largest of various Marxist and narcotrafficking groups active in the country. But as those rebels demobilized, other violent groups filled the vacuum.
President Gustavo Petro, the country’s first leftist president (himself a former guerrilla), pledged during his 2022 campaign to reduce chronic violence by negotiating a “Total Peace” with all armed groups. He also committed himself to a pro-environment agenda. Suddenly, those are two branches of a common problem.
A view of a Dollar Tree store in Washington, U.S., June 1, 2021.
Hard Numbers: Forest of Dollar Trees axed, Danes for drafts, Colombia reforms stall, Don Lemon X-communicated, Wilders won't be PM
1,000: Dollar Tree, a major discount food and variety chain, will close 1,000 stores across the United States. The chain’s stores are often the only source of food in low-income communities that would otherwise be “food deserts,” but the stores and others like them have faced strong criticism for driving out independent grocers and selling unhealthy products.
11: Denmark has proposed to expand military conscription, nearly tripling service time to 11 months and drafting women for the first time. The move comes as a number of European countries weigh reintroducing drafts (see Daily writer Alex Kliment’s recent column on that here). But look closely and the Danes want to expand the size of their conscription force by a mere … 300 people.
8: At least eight of the 14 Colombian senators on a key committee will vote to shelve President Gustavo Petro’s healthcare reform, in a major blow to the left-wing president’s plans to expand the state’s role in healthcare and pensions. Petro, a former Marxist guerilla and capital city mayor, was elected in 2022 on a wave of anti-establishment frustrations. Since then, his agenda has stalled and his poll numbers have fallen, raising fears that he may try to mobilize the streets to defend his agenda.
1: It took just one interview with Elon Musk for former CNN host Don Lemon’s new partnership deal with X to fall apart. Musk said Lemon “lacked authenticity” and accused him of being a mouthpiece for CNN head Jeff Zucker. Lemon says he had a deal with X and “expects to be paid.” Want to see it? Lemon plans to drop the interview on social media platforms on Monday.16: Far-right Dutch politician Geert Wilders has abandoned his bid to become prime minister after 16 weeks of negotiations, saying that he recognized he could not gain the support of all coalition members. The Netherlands may now take an unusual path to a government, wherein the leaders of each party in the coalition do not take cabinet positions.
GZERO 2023 music playlist
It was a bumpy year, so bump and groove your way into the New Year with our 2023 playlist! We scoured the charts from Buenos Aires to Beijing for songs that captured the zeitgeist, from Ice Spice to Fela Kuti — and make you wanna boogie.
Playlist tracks
Inflation - “Expensive shit” by Fela Kuti
French protests – “Paris is a bitch” by Biga*Ranx
West African coups - “Soldier Take Over” by Yellowman
Milei elected - “Desesperada” by Sara Hebe
European migration - “Desaparecido” by Manu Chao
Politics in general - “Liar’s Dub” by Max Romeo
Climate change failure - “Sogno otro mundo” by Apres la classe and Manu Chao
Struggle between Mexico government and drug cartels - “La People” by Peso Pluma
Nigerian election - “I Told Them” by Burna Boy
Xi Jinping wins historic third term as Chinese president - “Paint the Town Red” by Doja Cat
25th anniversary of Good Friday agreement - “Jackie Down the Line” by Fontaines DC
War in Ukraine - “Heart of Steel” by Tvorchi
Power Barbie - “Barbie World” by Nicki Minaj & Ice Spice
George Santos - “Banned in DC” by Bad Brains
UAW/SAG strikes - “Never Cross a Picket Line” by Billy Bragg
China economic weakness - “Made in China” by Higher Brothers and Famous Dex
Ukraine - “Running Up That Hill” by Kate Bush
Rise of AI - “Yoshimi Battles the Pink Robots Pt. 1” by The Flaming Lips
Colombia’s new drug policy – “Don’t Sniff Coke” by Pato Banton
US telling on India for killing Hardeep Singh Nijjar – “Exposing me Remix” by FBG Duck
Elon Musk unravels – “Where Is My Mind?” by Pixies
Chinese spy balloon – “Somebody’s Watching Me” by Rockwell
Biden-Xi meeting – "Bad Idea Right" by Olivia Rodrigo
The Black Sea grain deal – "Is It Over Now? (Taylor's Version) by Taylor Swift
Biden runs for president (again) – “Never Gonna Give You Up” – By Rick Astley
Putin survives Prigozhin revolt -- "Houdini" by Dua Lipa
Putin to Lukashenko – “Lil Boo Thang” by Paul Russell
North Korea fires more missiles for attention – “I’m Just Ken” by Ryan Gosling
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