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Ecuador's President Daniel Noboa looks on as his wife Lavinia Valbonesi (not pictured) takes part in a referendum that asks voters to support mostly security-related questions to fight rising violence, in Guayaquil, Ecuador April 21, 2024.
Ecuador votes to get tough on drugs
Ecuadorians showed overwhelming support for a government crackdown on drug-related violence in referendums this weekend in what could become a regional trend. Quito won support for joint police-military patrols, extradition of wanted criminals, tighter gun control, and tougher punishments for murder and drug trafficking, among other measures.
Cocaine boom: Ecuador had long maintained a reputation for tranquility despite being sandwiched between the major cocaine production hubs of Colombia and Peru. Coke is in the midst of a major resurgence, according to the UN Office on Drugs and Crime, with seven straight years of growing use.
Consequently, traffickers are trying to ship more blow than ever to the US, and increasingly doing so through Ecuador’s conveniently located ports. With the drugs come weapons, money, and violence, tearing at the social fabric. In August of last year, presidential candidate Fernando Villavicencio was assassinated after receiving death threats from gang leader Jose Adolfo Macias, who later escaped prison.
Iron fist: Ecuador is far from alone in experiencing a surge in drug violence, and leaders in Latin America are looking at Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele’s “mano dura” (iron fist) crackdown as an example.
“Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa took from the Bukele playbook in realizing that citizens are open to more draconian type measures,” says Eurasia Group associate Yael Sternberg, though she emphasized that the actual policies and problems are different.
If it pays off for Noboa like it has for Bukele, Sternberg says Chile is the country to watch next, with a growing crime issue and elections next year.
Cows graze in a deforested pasture on the Yari plains, in Caqueta, Colombia March 3, 2021. Picture taken March 3, 2021.
Deforestation surges in Colombia – and you’ll never guess why
For years, Colombian rebels and narcos perfected the art of kidnapping people for ransom – now they are holding the rainforest hostage.
New figures show that after declining for many years, deforestation in the Andean country has shot up 40% in each of the last two quarters.
The culprit? A major armed group that controls vast swathes of the jungle rescinded an earlier order to protect the vital forest resource. The “Estado Mayor Central,” as the guerilla command is known, is now using the rainforest as a bargaining chip in peace talks with the government, by allowing, or forcing, local farmers to clear trees for cattle or coca farms.
By way of background: In 2016, the government signed a peace accord that ended decades of war with the FARC, the largest of various Marxist and narcotrafficking groups active in the country. But as those rebels demobilized, other violent groups filled the vacuum.
President Gustavo Petro, the country’s first leftist president (himself a former guerrilla), pledged during his 2022 campaign to reduce chronic violence by negotiating a “Total Peace” with all armed groups. He also committed himself to a pro-environment agenda. Suddenly, those are two branches of a common problem.
A view of a Dollar Tree store in Washington, U.S., June 1, 2021.
Hard Numbers: Forest of Dollar Trees axed, Danes for drafts, Colombia reforms stall, Don Lemon X-communicated, Wilders won't be PM
1,000: Dollar Tree, a major discount food and variety chain, will close 1,000 stores across the United States. The chain’s stores are often the only source of food in low-income communities that would otherwise be “food deserts,” but the stores and others like them have faced strong criticism for driving out independent grocers and selling unhealthy products.
11: Denmark has proposed to expand military conscription, nearly tripling service time to 11 months and drafting women for the first time. The move comes as a number of European countries weigh reintroducing drafts (see Daily writer Alex Kliment’s recent column on that here). But look closely and the Danes want to expand the size of their conscription force by a mere … 300 people.
8: At least eight of the 14 Colombian senators on a key committee will vote to shelve President Gustavo Petro’s healthcare reform, in a major blow to the left-wing president’s plans to expand the state’s role in healthcare and pensions. Petro, a former Marxist guerilla and capital city mayor, was elected in 2022 on a wave of anti-establishment frustrations. Since then, his agenda has stalled and his poll numbers have fallen, raising fears that he may try to mobilize the streets to defend his agenda.
1: It took just one interview with Elon Musk for former CNN host Don Lemon’s new partnership deal with X to fall apart. Musk said Lemon “lacked authenticity” and accused him of being a mouthpiece for CNN head Jeff Zucker. Lemon says he had a deal with X and “expects to be paid.” Want to see it? Lemon plans to drop the interview on social media platforms on Monday.16: Far-right Dutch politician Geert Wilders has abandoned his bid to become prime minister after 16 weeks of negotiations, saying that he recognized he could not gain the support of all coalition members. The Netherlands may now take an unusual path to a government, wherein the leaders of each party in the coalition do not take cabinet positions.
GZERO 2023 music playlist
It was a bumpy year, so bump and groove your way into the New Year with our 2023 playlist! We scoured the charts from Buenos Aires to Beijing for songs that captured the zeitgeist, from Ice Spice to Fela Kuti — and make you wanna boogie.
Playlist tracks
Inflation - “Expensive shit” by Fela Kuti
French protests – “Paris is a bitch” by Biga*Ranx
West African coups - “Soldier Take Over” by Yellowman
Milei elected - “Desesperada” by Sara Hebe
European migration - “Desaparecido” by Manu Chao
Politics in general - “Liar’s Dub” by Max Romeo
Climate change failure - “Sogno otro mundo” by Apres la classe and Manu Chao
Struggle between Mexico government and drug cartels - “La People” by Peso Pluma
Nigerian election - “I Told Them” by Burna Boy
Xi Jinping wins historic third term as Chinese president - “Paint the Town Red” by Doja Cat
25th anniversary of Good Friday agreement - “Jackie Down the Line” by Fontaines DC
War in Ukraine - “Heart of Steel” by Tvorchi
Power Barbie - “Barbie World” by Nicki Minaj & Ice Spice
George Santos - “Banned in DC” by Bad Brains
UAW/SAG strikes - “Never Cross a Picket Line” by Billy Bragg
China economic weakness - “Made in China” by Higher Brothers and Famous Dex
Ukraine - “Running Up That Hill” by Kate Bush
Rise of AI - “Yoshimi Battles the Pink Robots Pt. 1” by The Flaming Lips
Colombia’s new drug policy – “Don’t Sniff Coke” by Pato Banton
US telling on India for killing Hardeep Singh Nijjar – “Exposing me Remix” by FBG Duck
Elon Musk unravels – “Where Is My Mind?” by Pixies
Chinese spy balloon – “Somebody’s Watching Me” by Rockwell
Biden-Xi meeting – "Bad Idea Right" by Olivia Rodrigo
The Black Sea grain deal – "Is It Over Now? (Taylor's Version) by Taylor Swift
Biden runs for president (again) – “Never Gonna Give You Up” – By Rick Astley
Putin survives Prigozhin revolt -- "Houdini" by Dua Lipa
Putin to Lukashenko – “Lil Boo Thang” by Paul Russell
North Korea fires more missiles for attention – “I’m Just Ken” by Ryan Gosling
- A Brazilian hip hop artist who brings his community not just music, but food ›
- 🔊 New Houthi single just dropped 🔊 ›
- Hip-hop artists with geopolitical beats ›
- A world in need of music therapy: Renée Fleming at Davos ›
- 10 images that captured 2023 - GZERO Media ›
- 2023 game changers that weren’t ›
- Top 10 game changers of 2023 ›
Migrants trek through the Darien Gap towards the border with Panama.
Sexual assault spikes in the Darién Gap
Crossing the remote, dense jungle is dangerous enough, but now the migrants face a worrying uptick in sexual assaults against women and children. Médecins Sans Frontières has documented nearly 400 sexual assaults there this year, as armed gangs exploit the record number of migrants crossing the jungle. Due to the stigma around sexual assault, fear of perpetrators, and concern that reporting will delay the journey north, the real number is likely far higher. Most of the violence is occurring on the jungle’s Panama side, which lacks the drug cartel that acts as a police force on Colombia’s side of the border.
In August, communication between Panama and Colombia fell apart after they failed to reach a deal to regulate their border. Talks have not resumed, with both countries pointing the finger at the other to take the lead. Yesterday, the US Department of Homeland Security announced it would send a team to Panama, but solely for training purposes. With no sign of a drop in migration, the fear is that the perils facing migrants are becoming normalized as governments fail to address the crisis.A group of demonstrators burns an image of the Prime Minister of Israel, BENJAMÍN NETANYAHU, during a protest in front of the Israel Embassy in Santiago, Chile, for his military actions in Gaza.
South American countries recall Israel envoys over Gaza
Colombia and Chile recalled their ambassadors to Israel, and Bolivia severed relations with the country entirely in reaction to the scorched-earth tactics used by Israeli forces in Gaza. All three governments fall under a left-wing tradition in Latin America that is heavily pro-Palestinian.
Bolivia has historically terrible relations with Israel, and the move is no surprise. Left-wing icon and former President Evo Morales first severed ties in 2009 after Israel invaded Gaza in late December 2008, and he praised sitting President (and protegé-turned-rival) Luis Arce’s decision.
Colombian President Gustavo Petro was formerly a member of the M-19 guerillas, a radical left-wing group that terrorized urban areas before demobilizing in 1991. He’s pushed the boundaries of decency in his condemnations of Israel, going so far as to liken the country’s actions to those of Hitler and the Third Reich.
Chilean President Gabriel Boric, less radical than Petro or Arce, has nevertheless been unequivocal in his criticism of Israel’s operations in Gaza while still condemning Hamas’ terrorist atrocities and pledging to work toward a two-state solution.
Colombia and Chile also have large ethnic Arab minorities, which tends to lend weight to discourse over Middle Eastern issues, but isn’t the proximate cause of the current spat. Up to 3.2 million Colombians are of Arab descent (ever heard of Shakira?). They’re mostly Lebanese but include around 100,000 people of Palestinian heritage.
Meanwhile, Chile is believed to have the largest Palestinian diaspora outside the Middle East, with up to 500,000 members. The community has tended to prosper, and remains visible in public life: The Club Deportivo Palestino plays in the colors of the Palestinian flag and has twice won Chile’s top-tier soccer league. Legislators of Palestinian descent have a caucus in Congress, and Chile has been an observer in the Arab League since 2005.
Colombian President Gustavo Petro gestures after casting his vote during the elections for governors, regional lawmakers and mayors, in Bogota, Colombia October 29, 2023
Has Petro petered out?
President Gustavo Petro saw his allies lose elections across Colombia’s largest cities this weekend in what is widely viewed as a rebuke to the government and its reform agenda.
Petro, Colombia’s first left-wing leader, promised transformational change, but he has struggled to deliver. His frustration is tangible: When centrist Cabinet ministers opposed a controversial health care reform in April, the impasse broke apart his coalition, and Petro fired a third of his Cabinet, appointing ideological allies instead. He attempted to govern by emergency decree in La Guajira department, only to be stymied by the constitutional court, while his congressional priorities have slowed to a crawl. To make matters worse, his administration has been embroiled in separate corruption and wiretapping scandals.
Voters haven’t had it any easier. Colombia’s economy grew by 7.3% in 2022 but is expected to grow by just 1.7% in 2023, straining families in one of the world’s most unequal economies.
The weekend’s contests saw no widespread violence or irregularities, but voters are clearly displeased. The candidate Petro endorsed for mayor of the capital, Bogotá, often considered the country’s second most prominent political office, came in third, and Medellín and Cali elected some of Petro’s fiercest critics.
Petro himself can’t run for office again in 2026, and Eurasia Group’s Colombia expert Maria-Luisa Puig says the results portend ill for his chances of positioning a candidate to carry on his political legacy — but he’s not quite a lame duck.
“Despite the defeat at the local level,” she notes, “Petro can still secure enough votes in congress to advance aspects of his reform agenda,” which may allow for watered-down versions of his pension and health care programs to pass.
Colombian president Gustavo Petro gives a speach
Colombia’s Petro clashes with Israel
The deepening war between Israel and Hamas could have security implications as far away as the Andes. In recent days, Israel announced it would cut exports of security technology to Colombia, after Colombian President Gustavo Petro likened Israel’s chokehold on the Gaza Strip to the Nazi concentration camp at Auschwitz.
For decades, Israel has been a close security partner for Colombia, helping the South American country as it grappled with the triple challenge of armed guerilla insurgencies, rightwing paramilitary groups, and powerful drug cartels.
Over the years, Colombia has imported Israeli fighter jets, drones, armed vehicles, helicopters, cybersecurity technology, border surveillance equipment, and anti-aircraft missiles. As recently as January, Petro’s government inked a $130 million contract for Israeli air defenses.
The cutoff of Israeli arms exports – which also interrupts maintenance services for those technologies – comes at a tough time for Petro on the security front. The former guerilla was elected as Colombia’s first left-wing president last year but has struggled to meet his promise to deliver a negotiated “total peace” with remaining guerilla groups and cartels.
Despite his success in reaching a truce with one of the largest remaining insurgent groups, a poll last week showed 85% of Colombians think the security situation is “getting worse.” Coca production, meanwhile, is at all time highs.
The US angle. The Biden administration will not want this spat to deepen. Colombia is Washington’s closest security ally in South America, receiving more foreign assistance from the US than any other country in the region, as part of Washington’s decades-long War on Drugs.
Not backing down. For now, the notoriously headstrong Petro is standing his ground. “If we need to suspend ties, then we will suspend them,” he wrote on X. “We do not support genocides. No one insults the president of Colombia … Hitler will be defeated.”