We have updated our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use for Eurasia Group and its affiliates, including GZERO Media, to clarify the types of data we collect, how we collect it, how we use data and with whom we share data. By using our website you consent to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy, including the transfer of your personal data to the United States from your country of residence, and our use of cookies described in our Cookie Policy.
{{ subpage.title }}
Putin "wins" Russia election, but at what cost?
Ian Bremmer's Quick Take:
A Quick Take to kick off your week. Want to talk about things Russian. We, of course, just had an “election” that Putin “won.”
There is no opposition to speak of in Russia. If you're running against him and allowed to run, that means that you are considered acceptable to the regime and you're basically there to play against the Harlem Globetrotters. What was it, the senators, the generals? I can't remember what it was called, but that was the group that was there to make the winning team look good. Of course, you know, Putin is not as much fun to watch as the Globetrotters, but he certainly is politically talented and of course, it's important for him to show that he has an historic win with historic turnout better than anyone before in Russia, not quite Turkmen in Turkmenbashi in Central Asia, not quite Aliyev levels in Azerbaijan, but strong enough for Russia.
It's not just about his ego. It is important as a messaging function to the Russian people that he is seen as a legitimate leader. And, you know, there are others around the world that are prepared to play that game. Already so warm congratulations from Narendra Modi in India, who's strong enough domestically and geopolitically that he can say pretty much what he wants to and get away with it. Still a little sad that he felt it was worth doing that. Even sadder to see that from Pope Francis, who has been putting his thumb on the scale in favor of Russia vis a vis Ukraine in the war in the past weeks, the Vatican tried to walk that back, but he was one of the first, apparently, according to Russian state media, to congratulate Putin. Normally, you wouldn't believe Russian state media, but in this case, Pope Francis could very easily say that isn't true. So one assumes that it is.
But nothing good here in terms of the war vis a vis Ukraine. Putin feels domestically quite stable. That's true politically. It's also true economically. The Russian economy is not performing well. The growth we're seeing in the Russian economy is because of the war economy, which is a massive piece of what the economy represents today. But they're losing lots of human capital. If you look at places like Armenia, Georgia, you see that those economies are booming right now because all of the talented young Russians are leaving and they're going there to work. Great for those tiny countries, not so good for the Russian Federation, but none of this is a threat to Putin, is a threat to the Kremlin, nor is the war in Ukraine two plus years on, in part because of the consequences if you dare oppose it publicly, in part because Putin, while throwing hundreds of thousands of troops into the front, many, many of whom hundreds of thousands, are casualties now, an estimated minimum 300,000 Russian casualties in this war, but most of them are not coming from the major cities. A lot of them aren't even Russian ethnically.
They're coming from the middle Volga and Siberia and they're poor and disenfranchised. And, you know, it's an easier way for Putin to keep this going. Also, large numbers of prisoners that were furloughed and given some money to be sent to the front lines, treated very badly by the Russian army and also many that have come from other countries, including Kazakhstan, for example, Cuba, Nepal, other countries that have sent some of their citizens that to make some money too quick money, and some of whom have been engaged in human trafficking. So that's what's going on inside Russia.
In Ukraine, the war continues not to go well. The Ukrainians are losing some territory. They only have one real line of defense behind the front lines. The Russians have had three. They're much better dug in. And also the Ukrainians are having a serious manpower challenge, a serious ammunition challenge, and don't have the military equipment at the high level that they really need to continue to fight. That is starting to change for the near term. There's been more ammunition sent by the Europeans in the past couple of weeks. And there's also, I think, increasingly very likely that the Americans will give an additional package. I'm now hearing $60 billion for 2014 that should allow the Ukrainians to mostly maintain the land that they presently occupy. That's where we are for 2024.
Or what about after that? It's only getting more challenging not only because of the US election, but also because the Ukrainians are a much smaller country and it's harder for them to raise the personnel. It's also a democracy, even though they've pushed off their elections and it's much harder for Zelensky to get away with doing the kinds of things that Putin is doing on the ground to his own country.
All of which means ultimately, it is hard to imagine the Ukrainians winning. It's also hard to talk about the Ukrainians winning. I understand that that's something that we want to do from a morale perspective. But, you know, when we talk about people that have gone through rape, we don't talk about winners. Even if the rapist was captured and imprisoned. We talk about survivors, talk about people that go through cancer and guess you can beat cancer, but you're really a cancer survivor. And what's happened to the Ukrainians with the war crimes and the torture that they have been through, is survival. And even if they were to get all their land back, you couldn't say they won the war in reality. Say if they survived the war and Russia is still there and they have to maintain their defenses and they have to continue to have the capacity to do so. And this is not a matter of one or two or three years. It's a matter of a generation, certainly as long as the Russian regime continues to exist in its present form, I do think that it's possible for Ukraine as an entity to truly survive this war.
NATO allies continue to say that they have a role in NATO, that they are being welcomed, but they haven't given them a timeline. They really should, and they need to provide hard security guarantees until that timeline of the remaining territory that Ukraine presently occupies. The French President Macron has been talking about that, if the Russians are able to make more gains, the Americans, the Germans have not, the Poles, the balls certainly have.
There needs to be more alignment on that in the run up to the NATO summit meeting in July, I believe it is in Washington, DC. There's also needs to be capacity for the Ukrainians to continue to pay for their own economic rebuilding. And that is a significant effort that right now the Europeans are providing more than the United States is all in economically.
And that includes the cost of military support, something we don't hear as much about as we should in the United States. But that doesn't mean that's going to continue. And the pressure and stress over time is only going to grow. But I do think that there is still such a window and it is good to see that a strong majority of Republicans and Democrats in the United States are continuing to focus on this issue, even as the Middle East gets more time and more attention. And that, I think, is ultimately I mean, Trump has said very clearly he doesn't want any money or support for the border because he wants that to continue to be a disaster for Biden, something that people to vote for him for in the run up to November. But when we talk about the Ukraine war, Putin has not tried so hard to say no more money under Biden. He's instead said, if I win, not another penny. So the pressure is there. We'll see where it goes. Clearly, we are talking about a de facto partition of Ukraine, but the ability to help the Ukrainians survive this and the impact that will have on NATO more broadly and on American allies around the world, like Japan, South Korea, you name it, Taiwan.
These are all long term very, very important precedents that are going to be set on the back of whether the Americans can indeed continue to stand up for themselves and for their allies and helping the Ukrainians defend themselves.
That's it for me, and I'll talk to you all real soon.
Ukraine warns of escalation after Putin’s talk of a ‘sanitary zone’
Fresh off Russian President Vladimir Putin’s “victory” of a fifth term, the Kremlin on Monday said it would move to establish a buffer zone in Ukrainian territory for the sake of Russia’s security. Putin suggested creating a “'sanitary zone' in the territories today under the Kyiv regime.”
What’s this all about? While the bulk of the fighting in the Russia-Ukraine war has occurred within Ukrainian territory, Kyiv has regularly launched strikes against targets in Russia proper as well. The border city of Belgorod has been a frequent target. The Kremlin said a buffer zone would aim to ensure “any means that the enemy uses to strike us are out of range."
Moscow already illegally annexed four Ukrainian territories — Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk, and Zaporizhzhia — in 2022 (despite not fully controlling these regions). But Russia in recent months has ramped up strikes on Kharkiv, a region along the Ukraine-Russia border. Talk of a buffer zone could signal that Russia will increasingly prioritize seizing territory in Kharkiv.
Ukraine raises the alarm. Kyiv says this signals that Russia is planning to escalate the conflict, which has largely been stalemated over the past year, though Russia last month seized Avdiivka — giving it new momentum in 2024.
BREAKING: Putin delivers his victory speech after a nail-biting election
After a nail-biter of an election, VladimirPutin delivers his victory speech.
Watch more PUPPET REGIME!
25 years on, is Putin unstoppable?
Surprising zero people, Vladimir Putin on Sunday "won" his fifth term as Russia’s president.
The result was not close: Russia's electoral authorities say Putin took 87% of the vote with 77% turnout. A landslide was never in question, as Putin has systematically eliminated any opposition to his rule.
Putin has now ruled Russia for 25 years. When he first became president, no one had ever heard of "YouTube,” Italy’s economy was still bigger than China’s, and Britney Spears ruled the Billboard with “One More Time.” But now, a quarter of a century later, is Putin more powerful than ever?
Consider:
- His economy has largely weathered sanctions and is humming again — on a war footing.
- He faced down an insurrection from his own warlord protege last year.
- He dispatched his most eloquent and charismatic critic to the grave.
- The war in Ukraine wasn’t the four-day cakewalk to Kyiv he imagined, but Russia again has the upper hand in a grinding war of attrition as Ukraine scrambles to find more military aid.
- The Putin-curious Donald Trump leads the polls ahead of this fall’s US presidential election.
To be clear, there are plenty of reasons to believe that Russia is a long-term loser as a result of Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine. Willis Sparks recently outlined them here.
And Russia today is a far cry from the booming country of 2006-2012 that was pumping oil at $120 a barrel and winning bids for the World Cup and the Olympics while Putin gallivanted around on a horse, in an F1 car, or in a giant Siberian crane disguise.
But Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin currently has virtually unfettered control over the economy, society, and war machine of a nuclear superpower. The big question now is what he’ll do with that power next, and who might stand in his way.
What to watch in this weekend’s Russian presidential “election”
Breaking: GZERO Media’s “decision desk” is now ready to project that Vladimir V. Putin will be reelected president of Russia this weekend. We’re walking out on this limb because the Kremlin controls most media in Russia, any opposition candidate who might embarrass Putin is barred from running, and protests are not tolerated.
But there are a few factors worth watching. Will the government get the turnout it wants? Probably. As Eurasia Group’s Alex Brideau told us yesterday, “Government employees, soldiers, and people working for state-owned companies will be under pressure to vote and ensure others vote for Putin, too.” Even if turnout is low, Russian state media will likely tell us it was high.
We should also watch to see if protesters, including supporters of recently deceased political prisoner Alexei Navalny, ignore the risk of arrest, violence, or both to hit the streets of Russia’s largest cities.
The wildcard to watch is whether Ukraine has plans to disrupt the voting in whatever way possible. Recent drone attacks on Russian infrastructure have demonstrated the Ukrainian military’s long reach.
Yes, this carefully choreographed election will probably go off pretty much exactly as planned. But some inside Russia and beyond would like to use this occasion to make their own statements on Russia’s government and its Potemkin democracy.
Viewpoint: Russian authorities seek strong election showing for Putin
Amid tight control of dissent, a crackdown on the opposition, and a big pressure campaign to get voters to the polls, there is little doubt President Vladimir Putin will win another term in office in elections being heldon March 15-17. Still,the Kremlin is working hard to ensure a strong showing for the 71-year-old leader who has ruled the country for 25 years. Displays of public support are important for his legitimacy.
Eurasia Group expert Alex Brideau says one important watchpoint will be whether the followers of opposition leader Alexei Navalny, who recently died in a Russian prison, can organize a symbolic protest vote. We sat down with Alex to learn more about what to expect in the election and the strength of the Putin regime.
What steps is the Kremlin taking to ensure Putin’s victory?
The Kremlin is not worried about Putin losing the election, but it doesn’t want any big surprises. The authorities have ensured that voters have few options when choosing the president. Along with Putin, three other candidates represent loyal opposition parties that lack substantial public support. The state’s repression of critical politicians and activists through arrests, bans on activities and fundraising, exile, or killings has been so strong that there were few real opposition candidates capable of rallying large numbers of voters. Those who tried this time to get on the ballot failed to get past the Central Election Commission.
Putin’s team also has been working with regional and local officials to ensure that both turnout and support for the president will be high. It is aiming for 70%-80% of the vote, according to independent Russian media outlet Meduza. Government employees, soldiers, and people working for state-owned companies will be under pressure to vote and ensure others vote for Putin, too.
Will Navalny’s death have any impact?
The crowds that gathered in Moscow to say farewell to Navalny showed that people will show their opposition to Putin, if very cautiously. Still, there is no candidate on the ballot to rally those voters. Navalny’s organization has been hounded by the security services since his arrest in 2021, making it hard for them to have an effect. But they will nevertheless try. Navalny’s widow Yulia has encouraged people to vote for anyone other than Putin, while others have encouraged opponents to do this together at noon on the 17th. The tactic won’t stop Putin from winning, but it could embarrass the regime if enough voters follow their advice.
What do you make of the level of support garnered by anti-war candidates before they were barred?
Two candidates running on anti-war messages tried to get on the ballot: Ekaterina Duntsova and Boris Nadezhdin. This offered an imperfect gauge of anti-war sentiment in January, when thousands of people lined up in cities across the country to give Nadezhdin the needed signatures to become a candidate. But Russian authorities stepped in and both politicians were barred from the ballot on technicalities widely seen as a way to ensure their anti-war campaigns would not continue.
Nonetheless, it is important to note that Putin has not shied away from talking about the war while campaigning. Instead, he has expressed optimism about continued success in the invasion and has not dialed back his previously declared objectives for the war. He has also played up his narrative of a threat from NATO and the West.
What other indications do we have about the true level of public support for Putin and the war in Ukraine?
Experts continue to debate the reliability of opinion polling in Russia, especially as repression has increased. At the very least, polls like those from the independent Levada Center have shown Putin gets consistently high backing in the upper-70% to mid-80% range. Putin’s apparent high popularity has long been an important part of how he demonstrates his legitimacy and manages Russia’s elites.
Polls also show the public’s consistently strong support for Russia’s military actions in Ukraine. However, they also show contradictory views on the issue. A majority support negotiations to end the war, but a majority also opposes giving back any occupied Ukrainian land to secure peace. Mobilization is not popular, something seen during the partial mobilization drive in the fall of 2022. Putin appears sensitive to this and has stated multiple times that a new mobilization won’t be necessary.
How would you place the level of repression in Russia now in a historical context?
Dissent in Putin’s Russia has always carried some risk, but the last three years have seen the highest level of repression in Russia’s post-Soviet existence. It started in the wake of Navalny’s 2021 imprisonment and expanded as Russian authorities used the war to further clamp down on dissent. The public now has very few legal outlets to protest government actions.
It’s hard not to see some similarities to the Soviet era's use of the security services, and their tactics, to squash opposition to the regime. But the societal control Russian officials can muster today through arrests, intimidation, and censorship is not nearly on the same level as what the Communist Party exerted over the everyday lives of Soviet citizens.
What would it take to loosen Putin’s grip on power?
Putin enters this election confident about the war and an economy that has grown despite major Western sanctions. But the war and the economy present a risk to him if they falter down the road. Moreover, some of the biggest protests during Putin’s time in power have been reactions to corruption or the abuse of power. The lack of outlets to oppose the government without fear of jail or fines creates a danger for the Kremlin: that an incident triggers spontaneous unrest that spreads nationwide. That said, Putin will enter his next term quite firmly in power, with little to suggest that he is under threat of losing control anytime soon.
Edited by Jonathan House, Senior Editor at Eurasia Group
Despite Putin’s current swagger, Russia remains vulnerable
After last year’s failed Ukrainian counteroffensive, Russia’s Vladimir Putin has signaled confidence that, thanks to lagging support from the West and Ukraine’s shortage of troops and weapons, Russia can win a war of attrition. But a series of stories today remind us the Kremlin still has plenty of security concerns.
Tuesday’s raids by Ukraine-aligned paramilitaries into Russian border provinces won’t change the war, but they raise the threat level for this weekend’s Russian elections.
Tuesday’s drone attacks on energy sites in multiple regions of central Russia, including one that reportedly inflicted major damage on one of the country’s biggest oil refineries, demonstrate again Ukraine’s ability to hit long-range targets. Ukraine has already disabled about one-third of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet.
NATO's newest members are also creating new security headaches for Moscow. Sweden’s prime minister is reportedly weighing a plan to refortify the Swedish island of Gotland, a strategically crucial piece of real estate in the Baltic Sea.
And for the first time, Sweden and Finland have joined in Operation Steadfast Defender, exercises involving 90,000 troops from all 32 NATO countries. This year’s event is the largest NATO military exercise since the end of the Cold War.
The EU, meanwhile, is expected to approve €5 billion in funding for new military supplies for Ukraine on Wednesday.Hard Numbers: Pakistan’s well-fed predators, Russia’s cool prices, Biden’s unrealistic budget, Telegram’s big moment
20: What can 20 Pakistani rupees ($0.07) buy you? A defense against misfortune sounds like a bargain. That’s the price you’ll pay for a packet of scrap meat to throw to predatory birds in Lahore. The practice is an age-old tradition that has survived despite intensifying efforts by the authorities to stamp it out. Wildlife experts say it encourages overpopulation and aggression in the bird populations, but a local rickshaw driver tells Reuters he does it anyway to “keep his life safe.”
0.6: New data from Russia this week will show consumer prices rose just 0.6% in February. Annual inflation is likely even lower than the last reading of 7.5%. That’s not stellar, no, but for a sanctions-wracked economy where inflation hit nearly 18% after invading Ukraine, it’s another sign the West hasn’t really crippled the Kremlin’s war machine. Vladimir Putin, for his part, is confident enough in the inflation numbers to uncork $126 billion in social spending ahead of his “election” this weekend.
7.3 trillion: Speaking of spending, US President Joe Bidenunveiled a $7.3 trillion budget proposal on Monday featuring massive new social spending financed by tax hikes on corporations and the mega-rich. Non-partisan analysts say the math is “unrealistic,” and it has zero chance of passing a GOP-run House anyway. But it’s not meant for Capitol Hill; it’s meant for the campaign trail, where Biden is trying to convince American voters that “Bidenomics” is a win. Polls show skepticism, despite improving economic data.
900 million: Social media apps owned by “China,” Mark Zuckerberg, or Elon Musk may get all the attention these days, but the messaging app Telegram has quietly hit 900 million regular users (nearly 3X that of X) and is mulling an IPO. The freewheeling Dubai-based platform, created by Russian-born entrepreneur Pavel Durov, has emerged as a major free speech hub, particularly in Russia, but it has also drawn criticism for allegedly allowing criminal activity and “misinformation.”