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Attendees gather near tactical ballistic missile launchers during a ceremonial event to mark the delivery of new tactical ballistic missiles to North Korean troops at an undisclosed location in North Korea, August 4, 2024 in this photo released by North Korea's official Korean Central News Agency.
North Korea sends troops abroad and builds walls at home
It was barely 24 hours ago when we asked whether North Korea was really sending troops to fight alongside Russia in Ukraine. The answer appears to be yes, according to South Korean and Ukrainian sources.
They say there are several dozen North Koreans already in Ukraine, helping to operate the launchers for North Korean ballistic missile systems that Pyongyang has supplied to Moscow.
Western governments have long accused North Korea of supplying artillery and other munitions to Russia, but the presence of troops in the theater of combat would mark a substantial deepening of the Moscow-Pyongyang partnership. North Korea and Russia have denied any of this is happening.
Meanwhile, closer to home, North Korea has for the first time acknowledged that it is building a border wall that will completely sever road and rail ties with the South. The project, which had previously been spotted by satellite images, comes as relations between the two Koreas have been steadily deteriorating.
Earlier this year, North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un for the first time openly rejected the goal of an eventual reconciliation or reunification between the two countries. Now he is backing up words with actual walls.Ursula von der Leyen (CDU), President of the European Commission, stands in the plenary chamber of the European Parliament and speaks while Vikor Orban (Fidesz), Prime Minister of Hungary, can be seen in the background.
Von der Leyen lays into Orbán over Russia
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyenhad strong words on Wednesday for Hungary’s strongman, Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, about his close relationship with Russia. After listing a fiery litany of grievances over Hungary’s democratic backsliding and undermining of EU support for Ukraine, she addressed Orbán directly. “There are still some who blame this war not on Putin’s lust for power but on Ukraine’s thirst for freedom, so I want to ask them: Would they ever blame the Hungarians for the Soviet invasion in 1956?”
The powerful rhetoric aimed at painful memories of Soviet tanks crushing freedom fighters in Budapest’s burning streets. Orbán, who had just delivered a relatively meek address about his plans for Hungary’s six-month EU presidency, denied von der Leyen’s accusation and denounced her for using the EU executive as a “political weapon.” Some left-wing MEPs sang the anti-fascist anthem “Bella Ciao,” prompting the parliament’s president, Roberta Metsola, to remind them “this is not Eurovision.”
Why did the gloves come off? Von der Leyen and her team of 26 commissioners are going before Parliament for confirmation hearings between Nov. 4 and 12. Parliament has taken von der Leyen to task in recent weeks for playing softball with Hungary and is preparing to sue the commission over its decision to unlock billions in frozen funds for Hungary last year. Taking Orbán to task might just be what she needs to smooth things over before the hearings.
We’re watching how her message plays, and whether Orbán might change his tune toward Russia — but we’re not holding our breath.
North Koreans take part in a parade to commemorate the 65th anniversary of the founding of the Workers' Party of Korea in Pyongyang October 10, 2010.
North Korean troops in Ukraine? Really?
In yesterday’s edition, we noted awarning from South Korea’s defense minister that North Korea was “highly likely” to deploy troops to fight alongside Russia in Ukraine. It is not yet clear how many troops would be committed or what their mission would be, but the move, if it happens, would make some sense. Vladimir Putin remains reluctant to order mass conscription since that might give a lot more Russians a reason to openly oppose his war. And anew report citing sources inside the Moscow mayor’s office says that “volunteer fighters aged 45 and over now make up half of new [Russian army] recruits in Moscow.” The North Koreans might be getting access to some valuable Russian advanced technology in return for their soldiers.
But we have more questions. North Korean troops have long demonstrated excellent goose-stepping skills at large-scale parades, but none have ever experienced combat. How will they respond to the meat grinder battlefields of eastern Ukraine? Given the Russian military’s manylogistical failures over the past 32 months, how will it handle the coordination of North Korean troops? What happens when North Korean soldiers, facing horrible battlefield conditions, decide they’d rather defect and live in Kyiv?
These are questions Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un will likely continue pondering before they approve anything beyond a symbolic deployment.
Trump's seven calls to Putin
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North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, meets with Sergei Shoigu, Secretary of the Security Council of Russia, in this photo released by North Korea's official Korean Central News Agency September 14, 2024.
Seoul says Pyongyang “highly likely” to deploy troops to Ukraine
Defense Minister Kim Yong-hyun told South Korea’s legislature on Tuesday that Pyongyang was “highly likely” to deploy troops to fight alongside Russia in Ukraine, a serious escalation in North Korea’s support for Russia. Kim also said reports that a Ukrainian missile strike in Donetsk killed six North Korean officers on Oct. 3 were also credible.
The warning comes the day after North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un called Russian President Vladimir Putin his “closest comrade” in a warm birthday message. The two countries have steadily drawn closer since Russia invaded Ukraine, and they signed a mutual defense pact in June. Pyongyang has been happy to supply war materiel — Western intelligence estimates half of the artillery shells Russia uses in Ukraine are North Korean — but the Korean People’s Army has never deployed abroad.
What could Russia promise in exchange? In January, Kim called to change the North Korean constitution to renounce peaceful reunification with the South and said the army should prepare for “occupying, subjugating, and claiming” Seoul’s territory. On Friday, he said he would use nuclear weapons on South Korea if it used force to encroach on North Korea. It may be easier to make such threats if Kim feels Moscow has his back militarily — maybe by helping with projects like new nuclear submarines, for example.
China, usually North Korea’s great power patron, is displeased with this deepening Moscow-Pyongyang friendship. It has reportedly tried to turn the screws on North Korea by, for example, deporting guest workers, but all that seems to have been achieved is a cooling of bilateral ties, as evidenced by their rote and mild exchange of letters to commemorate the 75th anniversary of ties on Sunday. Eurasia Group analyst Jeremy Chan says the lack of pull is becoming embarrassing for Beijing.
“It’s convenient for Beijing to say ‘What do you want us to do in Ukraine? Even if we turn off our support for Moscow, they're still going to fight that battle.’ but if there is any country in the world in which the Chinese should be able to call their shots, it's North Korea. But Kim is showing that they actually can’t, and North Korean troops in Ukraine will show that Beijing's pressure campaign is backfiring.” he says.
Europe's biggest concerns about Middle East, one year after Oct. 7
What's the situation of Europe one year after the October 7th attack against Israel? What's the main takeaway from the visit of the new NATO Secretary General to Kyiv? Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden and co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations, shares his perspective on European politics from Lisbon, Portugal.
What's the situation of Europe one year after the October 7th attack against Israel?
Well, I think deep apprehension is the best way of summing it up. Fears that we will see a further escalation of the conflict. Could be further problems in Gaza, could be further problems in West Bank. But perhaps particular now the situation of Lebanon, where there's the risk that we will see a further meltdown by the way of Lebanon. And we already have a million people on the move inside Lebanon. We have perhaps 100,000 people who are trying to flee from Lebanon into Syria. Mind you, there was a million and a half fleeing from Syria into Lebanon a couple of years ago. And the fear that we will see any refugee flow coming out of that area into Europe with all of the problems that would entail. So, deep apprehension on that situation.
What's the main takeaway from the visit of the new NATO Secretary General to Kyiv?
I think it was important for Mark Rutte to go to Kiev as the first thing he did really as the new Secretary General of NATO in order to make very clear his personal commitment to Ukraine, and the fact that he would put that at the top of his list of priorities, much in the same way as outgoing Secretary Jens Stoltenberg has done during the last few years. So, that was an important signal in itself.
Ian Bremmer: Russia, China and other factors are driving geopolitical recession
In a Global Stage livestream discussion from the 79th UN General Assembly, Ian Bremmer explained the concept of a "geopolitical recession," a term he uses to describe the growing disconnect between global power dynamics and existing international frameworks.
Bremmer identified three main factors driving this shift: First, Russia, which remains at odds with the core principles of the UN, was not fully integrated into the West after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Second, while China was successfully brought into global structures, it has maintained its authoritarian, state-capitalist model, causing discomfort, particularly in the West. Lastly, citizens in advanced democracies, especially the US, feel their leaders have neglected their needs, leading to widespread dissatisfaction.
These factors, Bremmer argues, are fueling global instability and dissatisfaction, contributing to what he calls a "geopolitical recession."
Bremmer spoke during GZERO’s Global Stage livestream, “Live from the United Nations: Securing our Digital Future,” an event produced in partnership between the Complex Risk Analytics Fund, or CRAF’d, and GZERO Media’s Global Stage series, sponsored by Microsoft.
Czech president Petr Pavel: Ukraine war fatigue weakening NATO unity against Russia
In a GZERO Global Stage discussion at the 79th UN General Assembly, Czechia President Peter Pavel highlighted the evolving dynamics within NATO nearly two years after Russia's invasion of Ukraine. He acknowledged that initial unity, which surged in response to the shock of the invasion, has waned as war fatigue sets in.
"I had an impression that some representatives of the countries are a little bit tired by always hearing that we need to support Ukraine, and we need to condemn Russian aggression," he said.
President Pavel emphasized that the conflict transcends regional borders, threatening global principles by challenging the UN Security Council's core values. He stressed the need for continued opposition to Russia's aggression, warning that a victory for Russia could embolden similar regimes to pursue military solutions to achieve their aims.
Pavel spoke during GZERO’s Global Stage livestream, “Live from the United Nations: Securing our Digital Future,” an event produced in partnership between the Complex Risk Analytics Fund, or CRAF’d, and GZERO Media’s Global Stage series, sponsored by Microsoft. The Global Stage series convenes heads of state, business leaders, and technology experts from around the world for a critical debate about the geopolitical and technological trends shaping our world. Click here to watch the full conversation.
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