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A satellite image shows a Russian, Gorshkov-class frigate offshore in Tartus, Syria December 10, 2024.
What Russia and Iran have lost in Syria
Yesterday, we talked about why, among all the external powers involved in Syria, Turkey is probably the biggest immediate winner from the fall of Bashar Assad.
Now, we turn to the main losers. There are two, and they are big: Russia and Iran.
Both countries were huge backers of the Assad regime for decades, seeing Syria as the centerpiece of their Middle East policies. That’s why Tehran and Moscow intervened so heavily to support Assad around 2015 when his regime was on its back foot in Syria’s raging civil war.
But last week, as HTS-led militants met little resistance from Syrian government forces on the road to Damascus, both Russia and Iran decided to pull the plug. Now both are, for the time being, largely out of the picture in Syria.
Here’s what each country faces with the end of Assad.
Russia: military installations and clout
The Russian naval base at Tartus is Moscow’s only warm water port. For years, it enabled the Kremlin to project naval power into the Mediterranean and keep NATO on its toes in the region. The Russian airbase at Khmeimim, meanwhile, not only helped Moscow support military forces throughout the Middle East and Africa, but it also featured sophisticated air defenses that gave Russia a role in shaping the Israel-Syria standoff – whenever the IDF launched airstrikes against Iran-aligned targets in Syria, they had to at least be aware of Russia’s air defenses.
Now the fate of those facilities is unclear
Russia has reportedly evacuated some personnel, equipment, and weaponry, but there appears to be at least the possibility of some kind of agreement with HTS that permits Moscow to continue using the Tartus and Khmeimim facilities. As part of that, the Kremlin may seek to exploit its longstanding economic influence in Syria, as well as its potential to serve as a kind of counterbalance if the new government worries about excessive Turkish influence.
But the stakes are high. Russia will have a hard time replacing these facilities elsewhere in the region. US allies like Egypt or the Gulf states are unlikely to host Russian assets for fear of blowback from Washington. And while Russia has friends in Libya and Algeria, it would take years to construct facilities as sophisticated as what the Kremlin had in Syria.
Beyond the potential hard-power hits, Russia’s soft power has suffered too. Assad wasn’t the only embattled leader who leaned on Moscow for support in the face of severe pressure from the West. But Moscow’s inability, or unwillingness, to come to Assad’s aid in his final hours of need might raise alarm among the Maduros, Diaz Canels, Kims, and Lukashenkos of the world. The value of an alliance with Vladimir Putin just lost a few kopeks on the ruble.
Iran: a regional strategy in ruins
Whatever losses Russia has suffered, they pale next to the impact on Iran. Syria was the centerpiece of Iran’s once-powerful “Axis of Resistance” against Israel and the United States. The country was critical for Tehran’s Hezbollah proxies next door in Lebanon who got Iranian weapons and rear support via Syria while also profiting from the country’s smuggling markets and illicit narcotics industries. In addition, the Assad regime reliably bought tens of billions of dollars worth of oil that Iran couldn’t sell elsewhere because of Western sanctions.
And lastly, Syria was an extra 70,000 square miles of friendly territory between Iran and its regional arch-enemies in Israel, important for a Tehran that is perpetually worried about the prospect of Israeli strikes on its nuclear program or other military installations.
True, the new Syrian government, run for now by the supposedly reformed Sunni jihadists of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS, isn’t likely to be much friendlier to Israel. And the IDF has already destroyed much of the military hardware that Assad’s regime left behind, for fear of it falling into hostile hands. But HTS views Iran and Hezbollah as arch-enemies, making it harder for Tehran to picture an HTS-led Syria as a dependable deterrent against Israel.
Take all of that together with Israel’s decapitation and defanging of Hezbollah and Hamas – Iran’s two main proxies in the region – and Tehran’s regional clout is at its lowest ebb in years.
The Iranian government has tried to put a brave face on all of this, declaring earlier this week that it would “use all its regional and international capacities to stop the crimes of the Zionist regime against Syria.”
The trouble for Iran, like Russia, is that in one fell swoop, much of those regional and international capacities now lie in ruins.
KYIV, UKRAINE - DECEMBER 9, 2024 - Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine Andriy Yermak, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Deputy Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine Ihor Zhovkva (L to R) attend a meeting with German Chancellor candidate, leader of the Christian Democratic Union Friedrich Merz, Kyiv, capital of Ukraine.
Zelensky preps for hard bargaining
President-elect Donald Trump has pledged to end Russia’s war with Ukraine. That would require Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky and Russia’s President Vladimir Putin to open negotiations – and to find enough common ground to agree at least to a ceasefire. Putin and Zelensky are now trying to strengthen their respective bargaining positions before talks can begin.
On Monday, Zelenskysaid via social media that he’s open to the possibility of Western governments posting troops on Ukrainian territory to guarantee his country’s territorial integrity, an idea firstsuggested publicly by France’s President Emmanuel Macron in February. “But before that, we must have a clear understanding of when Ukraine will be in the European Union and when Ukraine will be in NATO,” Zelensky wrote.
The EU and NATO remain unlikely to commit to precise membership timetables until it becomes clear what Ukraine’s future borders will be, and many Western leaders remain opposed to deploying troops into a warzone that could involve them directly in a war with Russia. For now, Zelensky continues to work with the outgoing Joe Biden administration to bolster his weapons stockpiles and to win more freedom to use Western weapons against his targets inside Russia.
There’s another political transition that Zelensky is watching carefully: Germany will hold national elections in February, and current Chancellor Olaf Scholz will likely lose his job to Friedrich Merz, the head of the center-right Christian Democratic Union. Merz is more publicly hawkish on helping Ukraine repel Russian invaders. That prospect gives Zelensky some hope that European backing for Ukraine will remain even if Trump dials back US support.Top rebel commander Abu Mohammed al-Golani greets the crowd at Ummayad Mosque in Damascus after Syrian rebels announced that they have ousted President Bashar Assad, on Dec. 8, 2024.
What Assad’s fall means for Syria, the Middle East, Moscow and Washington
Syria’s government has fallen, precipitating change across the region and beyond. How did things get here, and where could they go?
Syria under Assad
The Syrian civil war, sparked by the Arab Spring of 2011, began as protests against the dictatorship of Bashar Assad, who took over from his father after Hafez Assad died in 2000. Known as “the Butcher of Damascus,” Bashar Assad killed and imprisoned thousands of political opponents and minority populations withthe support of Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah. The conflict killed over500,000 Syrians and displaced half the country’s population of 26 million people, prompting a refugee exodus to neighboring Turkey as well as Europe, the USA, and Canada.
Over the weekend, Assad fled with his family and was granted asylum in Moscow.
New rebel leadership
In just two weeks, insurgents seized control of major Syrian cities including Aleppo, Homs, Hama, and the capital, Damascus, and officially toppled Assad’s regime on Saturday. The main rebel force, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS, is led by Abu Mohammad al-Golani, a former al-Qaida militant whoin the last decade has transformed from radical jihadist to ostensible pragmatist. Skeptics question the authenticity of his change of heart, however, andHTS is still designated as a terrorist group by many countries, including the United States.
Regional impacts
Iran: The collapse of Assad’s regime deals a significant blow to Iran’s "Axis of Resistance,"severing a crucial conduit for arms to Hezbollah in Lebanon and diminishing Tehran's influence in the region. This leaves it more vulnerable to anydirect conflict with Israel.
Lebanon: US envoy Amos Hochstein believes the Syrian war’s outcomewill have a “massive impact” on Lebanon as it reduces Iran’s ability to send weapons to Hezbollah. Syria’s instability could also worsen Lebanon’s fragile economic state.
Israel: Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahuattributed Assad’s fall to Israel’s “forceful action against Hezbollah and Iran.” Israel has nonethelessdeployed forces into the Golan Heights to protect its border andstruck military targets inside Syria to prevent weapons from falling into the hands of hostile forces including Hezbollah.
Turkey: Turkey has backed rebel forces throughout Syria’s 13-year war as part of its geopolitical rivalry with Iran, and the outcome is seen as a win for Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Celebrations have erupted among Syrians in Turkey over Assad’s fall, and it is estimated that up to 50% of refugees theremay choose to return.
Superpower Stressors
Russia: Since the war began, Vladimir Putin has provided political support, military aid, and direct military intervention. This loss weakens Russia’s strategic position in the Middle East, including jeopardizing control over its Syrian air base in Hmeimim and naval air base in Tartus.
Russia’s military commitments in Ukraine are also blamed forweakening Moscow’s ability to support Assad’s regime. Following his ouster, US President-elect Donald Trumpcalled on Moscow for “an immediate ceasefire” in Ukraine.
The United States: The US has 900 troops in eastern Syria fighting against the re-establishment of the Islamic State and will remain there “to ensure [the group’s] enduring defeat, to ensure the secure detention of ISIS fighters and the repatriation of displaced persons,"according to Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for the Middle East Daniel Shapiro. Under President Barack Obama, the US authorized thousands of airstrikes on Syria and Iraq starting in 2014 as part ofOperation Inherent Resolve, part of an international effort to destroy the Islamic State.
This time around, US President-elect Donald Trumpposted to Truth Social on Saturday that the US “SHOULD HAVE NOTHING TO DO” with the conflict in Syria. But Washington doesn’t appear to be listening: On Sunday, the US launched dozens of precision airstrikes against ISIS camps and operatives based in Central Syria, according to US Central Command.
And at a press conference on Sunday, US President Joe Biden not only took credit for helping topple the Assad regime through its sanctions against Syria and support for Israel’s efforts against Hezbollah, but he said the US will support Syria's neighbors, ensure stability in eastern Syria, protect against the Islamic State, and engage in a UN-led process to transition from Assad to an independent, sovereign Syria with a new constitution.
However, Washington will also “remain vigilant,” Biden added, noting that while the rebel groups that took down Assad “are saying the right things now,” the US “will assess not just their words but their actions.”
Ian Bremmer on Assad's fall
Ian Bremmer's Quick Take:
A Quick Take over the weekend. Yet again, because there is entirely too much blowing up around the world. Here, I want to focus on Syria where just a few hours ago Bashar Assad, the dictator, forced out, overthrown by a large number of militarily strong opposition forces led by the radical Islamist group HTS.
A lot to talk about here. This whole thing lasted less than two weeks, and initially the Russians and the Iranians provided military support for Assad, but his complete inability of his army to fight and offer resistance, and the distraction that the Russians have, they're stretched-thin from their fighting in Ukraine, from the Iranians providing support to resistance forces that are doing very badly against Israel, particularly Hezbollah and Lebanon, meant there wasn't all that much capacity, or even that much political will, to provide support. And so, Assad has been overthrown.
By itself that's good news, in the sense that this has been an incredibly repressive regime fighting initially a war against their own people. The pro-democracy movement that came out of the Arab Spring and has led to over 500,000 Syrians dead over the last decade, over 200,000 of them civilians, and some 6 million refugees, both fleeing into neighboring Arab states but also into Europe, into Turkey, and of course in Germany, which is part of the reason that Merkel ended up leaving her terms in ignominy. That is the initial background.
And there has been a lot of support for various opposition groups in Syria, from Turkey, most notably from the UAE, from Saudi Arabia, and from the United States, while the Assad government was being supported principally by the Russians in terms of air support, some intelligence, some cyber capabilities, and from the Iranians on the ground, particularly the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps. And that was largely enough through the majority of this war. The rebel groups by 2018 had retreated into the northwest, this Idlib region. And by that point, the rebels that were left were mostly led by ISIS, and that meant a common enemy on the part of the United States.
And Turkey had turned from Assad to the proximate Syrian part of the war on terror. And if that had failed, it had the potential to turn Syria and neighboring Iraq into a terrorist state. ISIS lost that battle. Assad consolidated most of Syria under his regime. And then about four years ago, Turkey and Russia brokered a ceasefire in Idlib, which was at that point under opposition control.
That brings us to today, and to HTS, which stands for Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham. It's a former Al-Qaeda affiliate in Syria that has since formally cut their ties with the terrorists, but they're still called a terrorist organization, labeled one by the United States and its allies in NATO. And they are the de facto leader of the armed opposition and led the now ouster of Assad. Now, they've become kind of Hezbollah-like in the sense that they're providing a lot of Syrian citizens with government services. They've managed to coordinate rebels and eliminate infighting underneath that, and they've also promised to protect Syrian Christians and Muslim Alawites and have gotten the tacit support of the Turkish Erdoğan government, who basically gave them at least a blinking yellow if not a green light to go ahead and launch this war against Assad two weeks ago.
Now, having said all of that, the likelihood that they're going to run as a secular government, Syria, seems unlikely to me. This is, we're going from Assad to what is probably going to be a radical Islamist government that'll be repressive and that'll be deeply challenging. And so I don't think that is in any way, at least at this point, something that we can call a transition that's good news or that we shouldn't feel anxiety about. But what is clear is that the Iranians and Russians have lost. So the axis of resistance is not looking like much of an axis and it's not putting up very much resistance. The Russians, Putin has said nothing about this. He's not made a public statement, and that's not surprising. Frequently when he is surprised and he faces sudden embarrassing losses, he doesn't say anything about it to his people. And if you look at Russian state media, they've been talking about France, and South Korea, and Trump, and all those things, but almost no coverage of Syria, where the Russians have lost an ally and they've lost a military base that's important to them in Tartus and they've not been able to put up much of a fight.
Now, the good news there is that if you're Putin, you should be more cognizant of the fact that there are major costs of continuing to fight an incredibly bloody war in Ukraine where you're making some gains, territorially, but you're losing huge numbers of Russian citizens. And so if Trump is coming in and says he wants to cut a deal, Putin should be more incented to do that. There's also good news on the Iranian front in the sense that Syria falling means that they no longer have a corridor to provide military support for Hezbollah. And that means that the two-month ceasefire, which has been announced by the Israelis and by the Lebanese government, is more likely to hold.
Now, if you put those two things together, kind of interesting. Looks more likely that Trump gets inaugurated, and he is indeed able to announce that the temporary ceasefire becomes a permanent end of the war between Israel and Hezbollah, and that he's able to negotiate a ceasefire between the Russians and Ukrainians that does not give up the store to Putin. The former is an easier bet than the latter, but both of them certainly look more likely on the back of Assad being ousted.
The bad news? More challenges, more humanitarian degradation for the Syrian people on the ground. Could easily see another million refugees on the back of the fighting that we've had, depending on what happens with governance going forward. There are very few hospitals that are presently functioning. There is very limited humanitarian aid on the ground, that's necessary in very short order. And it's hard to say that fighting isn't going to break out amongst the various factions that have held together in fighting a common enemy, if that's going to lead to coherent governance going forward, it depends so much on what happens when HTS becomes not the leader of a rebel group but suddenly is responsible for governance on the ground in Syria. And your guess is as good as anyone as to what is going to happen there.
So, that is the best I can tell where we are right now. It's a fascinating issue and a temporary expansion of the war in the Middle East, but hopefully one that we can see bringing a little bit of stability to some other conflicts that are happening in the region and more broadly. That's it for me, and I'll talk to you all real soon.
- Podcast: Syria, The Rise and Fallout of the House of Assad with Sam Dagher ›
- Syrian rebels reignite war, make advances in Aleppo ›
- Once frozen out, Bashar Assad is back in ›
- Do strikes on Syria signal a bolder Netanyahu? ›
- The Graphic Truth: How a decade of war has crushed Syria ›
- Tragedy upon tragedy in war-torn Syria ›
Rebel forces seized Mengh Airbase and the city of Tel Rifaat in the Aleppo countryside on December 1, 2024, following clashes with the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and Syrian regime forces.
Syrian rebels clash with Kurds as Assad’s backers spring into action
In case anyone has forgotten just how complicated Syria’s civil war always was, the recent drama around Aleppo escalated on Monday as the Syrian National Army, a group backed by Turkey, attacked US-backed Kurdish groups near the city.
Meanwhile, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS, the formerly al-Qaida-linked Islamist group at the forefront of the recent rebel offensive in Aleppo, has reportedly ordered Kurdish militias to leave the area altogether and go eastward to Rojava, a de facto autonomous Kurdish area in northeastern Syria.
Aren’t the Kurds against the Assad regime, too? Yes, but that’s not the beef. HTS works with the Turkish proxies and relies on Ankara for political support in high-level negotiations to end the war. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is angling for an advantageous position on the war’s aftermath and said his “greatest wish” was “for the instability that has been going on for 13 years to end.”
For Turkey, that means both weakening Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and cutting the Kurds down to size, as it has long-standing problems with Kurdish separatists at home.
Don’t forget, Turkey is also a US ally — a NATO member, in fact — so urging its proxies to fight US proxies in a theatre where Russian forces also actively operate causes headaches in Washington. Russian warplanes bombed rebel-held areas of Aleppo on Monday, not far from where Turkish F-16s shot down a Russian Su-24 that strayed over the border in 2015. Quite an explosive position for a lame-duck US president.
Speaking of proxies… Iran-backed militias crossed into Syria from Iraq to help shore up Assad’s counterattack as well. Assad will be glad for that help as the Lebanon-based Iranian proxy group Hezbollah, once a major pillar of support for Assad’s regime, said Monday it would not deploy fighters to Syria right now. The group is still regrouping after getting mauled by Israel and is warily watching as last week’s ceasefire in that conflict appears to be breaking down already.
Where is the US in all this? Washington had reportedly held talks before the Aleppo offensive with the UAE about lifting sanctions on Syria in exchange for Assad distancing himself from Iran and Russia. That seems unlikely now that Assad’s back is against the wall and he needs all the help he can get. Beyond milquetoast calls for de-escalation, Washington has thus far kept its cards close to its vest.
Rebel factions successfully seized control of the city of Aleppo, Syria, on November 30, 2024, after intense clashes and fierce battles with Assad regime forces.
Syrian rebels reignite war, make advances in Aleppo
Anti-government forces opposed to Syrian President Bashar Assad launched a shock attack on the largest city, Aleppo, on Saturday. Amid the ongoing fighting, rebels have seized the city’s airport and military academy and struck the entrance of Aleppo University Hospital,killing 12 civilians and injuring 23 others. Led by the Salafi jihadi group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham — a terrorist organization with past ties to al-Qaida, now often but not always backed by Turkey – insurgents claim to control territory across Hama, Idlib, and Aleppo provinces. They are demanding that US-aligned Kurdish forces retreat from neighborhoods they hold in Aleppo.
Assad has ordered his forces to counterattack and met with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in Damascus on Sunday. Russia also expressed support for its ally and claimed its forces in Syria had engaged with the rebels.
Why now? Israel’s destruction of Hezbollah in Lebanon seems to have helped tip the balance, according to Eurasia Group expert Emre Peker.
“HTS has been observing the shifting regional dynamics and agitating to take advantage of Assad’s relative weakness for months. With Russia preoccupied with Ukraine and Iran and its proxies effectively targeted by Israel, HTS felt the time was ripe to strike,” he said.
Peker elaborated that Ankara will back the rebels as long as their offensive also serves Turkish interests, whileRussia has lent what military support it can to Assad. “Erdogan will not want to oust Assad, rather to weaken him to both normalize Turkey-Syria relations and pave the way for a settlement to the 13-year-old Syrian civil war,” he said.
What about the US? The conflict creates a dilemma for Washington which under President Barack Obama supported rebel groups fighting Assad’s brutal dictatorship, but HTS’s fundamentalist roots are cause for concern. Asli Aydintasbas, a visiting fellow at the Brookings Institution, noted the quandary: “Should [the US] be cheering the opposition taking over Syria’s second-largest city Aleppo, or should they actually worry about the city falling under Islamist rule?”
So far,the Biden administration has distanced itself from the offensive, calling for de-escalation and a political solution – but we’re watching how long Washington can stay on the sidelines if the conflict escalates.
Demonstrators stand next to a fire during a protest against the new government's decision to suspend the European Union accession talks and refuse budgetary grants until 2028, in Tbilisi, Georgia December 2, 2024.
Tbilisi in turmoil: Protests erupt over suspended EU talks
Thousands of protesters clashed with police in the Georgian capital for a third consecutive night on Saturday after Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze’s government suspended negotiations to join the European Union. Late Friday, Demonstrators broke through metal gates outside Georgia’s parliament buildings, using garbage bins and benches as makeshift barricades as riot police deployed tear gas and water cannons. Protesters also took to the streetsin other regions and cities across the country including Batumi, Kutaisi, and Zugdidi.
Kobakhidze’s EU exit comes after Western leaders condemned Georgia’s October election, which returned the ruling Georgian Dream party to power, as fraudulent. Party founder, pro-Russian billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili, stood accused of bribing voters, while Kobakhidze has become increasingly aligned with Moscow.
In response, President Salome Zourabichvili,who’s pro-Western, described the current government as “illegitimate” and vowed to retain her role past on Dec. 14, the date the parliament has set for picking her replacement,likely to be far-right politician and former footballer Mikheil Kavelashvili.
Hundreds of civil servants have also signed letters of protest; Georgia’s ambassadors to Bulgaria, Netherlands, and Italy resigned; and the US State Department has suspended its strategic partnership with Georgia. Kobakhidze accuses opponents of plotting a revolution similar to the 2013-2014 Maidan Uprising in Ukraine, which toppled a pro-Russian president – a precedent he does not want to see repeated.
Ukrainian service members attend a military exercises during drills at a training ground, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Chernihiv region, Ukraine, November 22, 2024.
Russia and Ukraine trade larger and larger blows
Russia has conducted as many as 1,500 strikes on targets in Ukraine in the past two days, according to Kyiv. Ukraine, meanwhile, reportedly launched a fresh volley of US-made long-range ATACMS missiles at Russia, while claiming also to have struck a Russian oil depot with drones.
The ATACMS strike was reportedly on an air base in the Russian border region of Kursk, parts of which have been occupied by Ukrainian troops since August. Since then, Moscow has invited North Korean troops to help it push back the Ukrainians.
Putin, whose forces have been slowly gaining ground in eastern Ukraine for months, had warned that ATACMS strikes would be a significant escalation of the conflict. Last week, in response to their use, he loosened Russia’s nuclear use doctrine and fired into Ukraine a new advanced missile capable of carrying nuclear payloads.
All of this comes as Donald Trump prepares to return to the White House. Trump has questioned American support for Ukraine and pledged to end the conflict within “24 hours.” No one is sure what that will entail, but both sides are now in a last-minute frenzy to gain as much territory – and deterrent capacity – as they can before Trump takes office.