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Prince Andrew – now Andrew Mountbatten Windsor – leaves Buckingham Palace on the day of King Charles' coronation ceremony, in London, United Kingdom, on May 6, 2023.
What We’re Watching: King’s brother loses royal title, Japan-China tensions surround leaders’ summit, Deadly Rio raid becomes national political issue
Epstein scandal takes down the king’s brother
Prince Andrew is now just Andrew Mountbatten Windsor, after Buckingham Palace stripped King Charles III’s younger brother of his royal titles on Thursday night. The move was caused by Andrew’s relationship with child sex offender Jeffrey Epstein and the ex-prince’s alleged relations with the late Virginia Giuffre when she was a teenager. He will also have to leave his royal home in Windsor. Andrew’s public demise began in 2019, when he had a disastrous interview with the BBC – the interview even became a subject of a film. Despite losing his title, Andrew remains eighth in line to the throne. The Epstein scandal has forced major exits in the UK, but not in the US – could that change?
Cordial Xi-Takaichi meeting masks simmering Japan-China tensions
Is Japan’s new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi the Viktor Orban of the Pacific? While Takaichi said she “spoke frankly” to Chinese President Xi Jinping on Friday about Beijing’s rare-earth export curbs, aggression in the East China Sea, and human-rights abuses in Xinjiang and Hong Kong, the two leaders also agreed to pursue “constructive and stable ties.” Like her ultra-conservative Hungarian counterpart, Takaichi appears to be building a close relationship with US President Donald Trump while engaging with Beijing – no small feat as tensions heat up in the Indo-Pacific.
Deadly Rio raid becomes national political issue in Brazil
Many of the bodies are still being identified, but the staggering death toll of this week’s raid by police on drug traffickers in a Rio de Janeiro favela has already become hotly politicized. The move against the powerful Comanda Vermelha gang was the deadliest in Brazil’s history: 160 people are dead, including four police officers. Politicians on the right praised the operation, while those on the left – including President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva – have denounced traffickers but questioned the effectiveness of violent crackdowns. The issue will surely shape next year’s presidential election, with crime a top concern for voters. Lula recently announced that he will seek a fourth and final term.
US President Donald Trump shakes hands with Vietnam's Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh as East Timor's Prime Minister Kay Rala Xanana Gusmao and Singapore's Prime Minister Lawrence Wong look on at the ASEAN Summit in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, on October 26, 2025.
Trump’s Asian trade blitz sets up sitdown with Xi
US President Donald Trump kicked off his five-day trip to Asia by signing a raft of trade deals on Sunday with Malaysia, Cambodia, Thailand and Vietnam at the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) summit in Kuala Lumpur. Next, Trump heads to Japan to meet newly-elected Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi Tuesday morning, before sitting down with Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea on Thursday. What should we make of Trump’s trip so far, and what can we expect in the week to come?
Deals! Deals! Deals! In Kuala Lumpur, Trump reached agreements that promise to eliminate tariffs on roughly 99% of goods with Thailand, reduce Washington’s $123-billion trade deficit with Vietnam, and secure Malaysia’s agreement not to restrict rare-earth exports to the US. Simultaneously, delegates from the US and China met on the sidelines, producing a preliminary framework for a deal that could pause new American tariffs and Chinese export controls, in preparation for Trump’s meeting with Xi on Thursday.
Tuesday with Takaichi. Next, Trump meets Takaichi, who took office last week. The new Japanese PM is known as a China hawk and has promised to ramp up defense spending to 2% of GDP two years ahead of schedule, which should please Trump. But she also must follow through on her predecessor’s pledge to funnel $550 billion worth of investment into the US by 2030. Japan is reportedly prepared to offer sweeteners to Trump in the form of increased purchases of US soybeans and trucks. The two countries are also set to sign an agreement to cooperate on advanced technologies including AI, quantum computing, and nuclear fusion.
The main event: Trump and Xi. The leaders of the world’s two largest economies will seek to ease a deepening trade war without ceding ground on critical priorities.
According to David Meale, Eurasia Group’s Practice Head for China, the two sides are looking to find a path between each other’s pain points. “In particular, critical minerals need to flow from China to keep advanced industries in the US and elsewhere operating, and certain technologies (especially advanced chips) need to be available to China for its development of emerging technology sectors that are central to its economic blueprint going forward.”
While full details of the Oct. 26 framework are not yet available, both sides aim to make progress on key issues. Trump wants better cooperation from Beijing on stopping the export of fentanyl precursors, as well as further commitments from China to buy US goods, especially agricultural products. Xi, meanwhile, wants to head off Trump’s threats to raise tariffs further and impose fresh export controls on US software exports. And both sides seek a “a final deal” on the sale of TikTok’s operations in the US.
Potential pitfalls. Trump has said he will raise the contentious questions of Taiwanese independence — which the US has implicitly supported despite longstanding Chinese objections — and possibly the detention of Hong Kong media mogul and activist Jimmy Lai. Florida Senator Rick Scott published an open letter urging Trump to press Xi for Lai’s release, and a group of Catholic bishops also has urged his freedom. Lai, who converted to Catholicism in 1997, has become a symbol of Hong Kong’s resistance.
Nonetheless, Meale expects that the meeting will strike a positive tone, due to the respect shown by the two leaders to each other. “Chinese officials believe President Trump is someone with which they can chart a course forward,” he says, “because he is pragmatic and demonstrates respect to President Xi.”
Postscript in Pyongyang? Trump mused this morning about the possibility of extending his trip to meet with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. “I’d love to meet with him, if he’d like to meet,” said Trump. “It’s our last stop, so it’s pretty easy to do.”
Japan’s first female prime minister: What Sanae Takaichi means for Japan and Trump
A historic first in Japan: Sanae Takaichi has become the country’s first female prime minister.
Speaking from Tokyo, Ian Bremmer explains why her rise marks a turning point for Japan, and why her close alignment with Donald Trump could reshape global politics.
“President Trump is coming to Tokyo, and she is going to show Trump that she's a big fan and friend on the global stage.”
With Takaichi expected to deepen ties with Trump on security, fiscal policy, and culture, Ian calls her victory both symbolically powerful and geopolitically significant.
Displaced Palestinians live in tents near destroyed buildings as they cannot return to their houses, amid a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, in Gaza City, on October 19, 2025.
What We’re Watching: Tense Gaza ceasefire holding again, Trump pressed Zelensky on Donbas during Friday meeting, Japan to have first female PM
Ceasefire returns to Gaza after weekend exchange of fire
The US and the Israeli military said Sunday that the ceasefire is holding again in Gaza, after the two sides exchanged fire over the weekend in what was the biggest test so far of the peace plan signed last week. The flare up appeared to begin when Hamas militants – reportedly acting independent of the group’s leadership – hit Israeli soldiers with gunfire and anti-tank missiles, killing two soldiers. Israeli forces responded with a wave of airstrikes, killing 26 people, per local authorities. Israel said it bombed Hamas targets in the enclave, but one of the strikes hit a former school that was sheltering some displaced persons. The ceasefire remains a tenuous one, as Israel seeks the return of the remains of the last 16 hostages, while Hamas demands more aid. The next 30 days, per one US official, will be “critical.”
Trump presses Zelensky to cede Donbas in heated meeting
US President Donald Trump urged Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to give up the Donbas region and accept a ceasefire deal on Friday, during a meeting that reportedly devolved into a “shouting match” where Trump echoed the talking points that Russian President Vladimir Putin made on their call the day before. Zelensky hoped the meeting would result in the US supplying Ukraine with long-range Tomahawk missiles, a request Trump denied. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov will speak in the coming days to prepare a new Trump-Putin summit in the next few weeks – something Zelensky signaled he would be open to attending if invited.
Japan set to have first female PM
Sanae Takichi, elected leader of the center-right Liberal Democratic Party last week, is set to become Japan’s first female prime minister, after her party penned a coalition deal with the right-wing Japan Innovation Party on Monday. The agreement means Takichi will have just enough support when Parliament votes on her ascension tomorrow. The Japan Innovation Party replaces Komeito as the LDP’s coalition partner following outgoing PM Shigeru Ishiba’s decision to resign, meaning the government will take a more pro-business approach. Takichi won’t be the first female leader of Japan, though: Eight empresses have previously ruled over the island.
Shinjiro Koizumi, Sanae Takaichi, Yoshimasa Hayashi, Ichiro Aizawa, Toshimitsu Motegi and Takayuki Kobayashi at a campaign event of the Liberal Democratic Party candidates in Tokyo, Japan, on Sept. 24, 2025.
Japan’s leadership race: gender milestone or generational reset?
Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is holding a leadership race to replace outgoing Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, who resigned in September after defeats in the Upper House and Tokyo’s municipal elections this summer. The party has held power for most of the last 70 years, and this mid-term intra-party election is unprecedented. But it comes as public anger over political finance scandals and inflation (rice prices doubled in one year), as well as anxiety over immigration, have made the case for a reset. The race’s slogan is “Change, LDP,” and on October 4, the LDP could deliver, electing either the country’s first female prime minister or a millennial reformer promising a generational shakeup.
Who’s running?
There are five main candidates but polls show the leading contenders to be former Economic Security Minister Sanae Takaichi, 64, an arch-conservative career politician first elected in 1993 who finished second to Ishiba in last year’s LDP leadership, and the telegenic moderate Shinjiro Koizumi, a 44-year old Agriculture minister. Koizumi has scrambled to lower rice prices and is the son of the charismatic former Prime Minister Junchiro Koizumi, (who, as some of our readers may remember, famously serenaded then-US President George W. Bush with Elvis karaoke in the early 2000s.)
Where Takaichi and Koizumi would take Japan
Takaichi may be a woman, but she’s no feminist, endorsing male primogeniture in Japan’s royal house and styling herself after late UK Prime Minister Dame Margaret Thatcher. She is a foreign policy hawk in the vein of late Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, in whose Cabinet she served in the mid 2000s. Takaichi would revise Japan's pacifist Constitution to formally codify the existence of its Self-Defense Forces and take a tougher line on China. On economics, she also echoes Abe, proposing to issue more bonds to fund a combination of tax cuts and cash payments to households to offset cost-of-living increases, and eliminate gas taxes.
Her “Japan First” policies include reviewing the US-Japan trade deal, cracking down on badly-behaving tourists, and curbing immigration. Lately, however, she has moderated some of her harder-line positions in order to woo centrist voters, promising a gender balance comparable to that of the Nordic countries, where approximately 40% of cabinet members are women, and to ensure “peaceful” coexistence with foreigners.
Koizumi, meanwhile, pledges party reform and practical cost-of-living fixes but wouldn’t take on new debt. He wants to grow productivity and wages to combat inflation, and would also slash gas taxes. He’s taken progressive positions on cultural issues, supporting a women’s right to inherit the imperial throne and agreeing that married couples can use separate surnames. But lately, he has de-emphasized those stances to court more conservative lawmakers. He’s also talking tougher on migration, acknowledging public concern over an increase in foreign residents.
The challenge from the right
Adding to the intrigue, the LDP leadership race comes in the wake of the far-right’s surging popularity in Japan’s national elections last July, when the ultra-nationalist Sanseito party captured 14 seats in the Upper House, after previously holding just one. Sanseito’s traditionalist views on family and fierce opposition to foreigners have carved away the LDP’s right flank and garnered support among young Japanese. The LDP wants to regain both of those groups.
And now, a scandal
This past weekend, Koizumi’s campaign was hit by scandal. He apologized after a campaign worker – who then resigned – solicited supporters to post favorable comments about him while slamming Takaichi – a no-no according to conservative party rules. The scandal has now caused a key LDP coalition partner to call on Koizumi to withdraw from the race. At press time, there has been no response from Koizumi’s camp.
Lawmakers will have more sway than rank-and-file party members
While the public favors Koizumi, party members lean toward Takaichi. And the LDP voting system could work in her favor.
Half of the 590 votes for leader in the first round will be cast by the party’s 295 elected representatives. The other 295 will be allocated proportionally based on the votes of 1 million LDP members – which benefits Koizumi.
But if no candidate clears 50% (which polls say is likely), the top two contenders advance to a runoff where the 295 members of Japan’s parliament still each have one vote, but rank-and-file members only collectively have 47, one from each of the LDP’s prefectural chapters, for a total of 342. That gives lawmakers a greater say and favors establishment candidate Takaichi.
After the vote
Whoever wins will face the same challenges: crafting a coalition to stay in power and maintaining relationships with Japan’s allies. Sanseito says it is open to a coalition deal, but that would alienate more moderate parties. The strongest candidate to join the coalition, according to Eurasia Group’s Director for Japan and Asian Trade, David Boling, is the Japan Innovation Party, which – until the Koizumi scandal – had been holding talks with both camps.
Japan’s relationships with the United States and China pose another challenge. According to Boling, “The US is Japan’s most important ally – no other country is even close. So, at the top of the new prime minister’s to-do list is to have a good relationship with US President Donald Trump and his administration.”
As for China, Japan wants a stable economic relationship, because it is Japan’s top trading partner. But on national security issues, China is also Japan’s top security challenge, making for a tricky balancing act.
Then there’s South Korea. Boling believes that Seoul wouldn’t be pleased with a Takaichi victory, as “her nationalism is a turnoff.”
Will both leading candidates remain in the race? Will the LDP veer right, moderate or progressive? We’ll see just how Japan’s political axis tilts when the vote comes in this week.Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba adjusts his glasses during a press conference as he announces his resignation, in Tokyo, Japan, on September 7, 2025.
Who will be Japan’s next leader?
Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s resignation announcement on Sunday triggered the country’s second leadership battle in less than a year, plunging his center-right Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) deeper into a political crisis.
The party has held power for most of the last 70 years, but recently lost majorities in both houses of the National Diet and suffered a historic defeat in Tokyo’s city council elections. This string of defeats, combined with a stagnant economy and higher inflation, spelt the end for Ishiba.
The LDP must now select a new party leader, who is likely to replace Ishiba as prime minister. That process is likely to unfold in October, though it could come sooner given the urgency of the situation.
To better understand how the leader of Japan, the world’s fourth largest economy, got into this mess after less than a year in power, and who is most likely to replace him, GZERO spoke to one of the top experts on Japanese politics: Eurasia Group’s Japan Director David Boling.
GZERO: Why did Ishiba resign?
Boling: “Three strikes, you’re out,” is probably the most compelling argument against Ishiba. He basically was the leader of the party, and they had three elections where they lost. After that upper house election in July, there was a pretty hard push by a lot of conservatives to call for a special election. Ishiba has a three-year term that started last September, when he was elected. It is unprecedented for the LDP to call for basically a midterm intraparty election. Ishiba was able to stall that for a while, but the momentum started to come back strong.
Last week, they had set up a vote on Monday for whether to have a leadership election, and Ishiba saw the writing on the wall over the weekend. Instead of seeing how this special election would turn out, he could tell that he didn’t have the votes.
Who are the favorites to replace him, and what are their stances?
The two favorites to replace him are well known – they came in right behind Ishiba in the party leadership vote last September.
The person who finished second behind Ishiba was Sanae Takaichi. She is conservative, nationalistic, and a proponent of “Abenomics,” which is loose monetary and fiscal policy. But she’s probably best known for her nationalistic views. She’s a hawk. [She would also be Japan’s first female prime minister.] The person who placed third is Shinjiro Koizumi, a well known name in Japan because his father was prime minister. He’s young, charismatic, and popular. Since they are both members of the LDP, both candidates are broadly pro-US alliance, and right of center. I would put Koizumi as more moderate, and Takaichi as more conservative.
Last thing: what’s the biggest thing to watch out for going forward, once the new leader is determined?
Last October, the LDP and its junior coalition partner Komeito lost their lower house majority, so they now have to work with one of the opposition parties to have enough votes to elect the new LDP leader as prime minister again. I think that it is very likely that whoever is the LDP president will become the next Japanese prime minister, but there will have to be some sort of deal worked out with the opposition parties to have enough votes to approve that person as the next prime minister. The LDP-Komeito coalition may have to make concessions on items for the annual budget, agreeing to spending or taxing provisions favored by the opposition. So that will be the next big watch point.
Nine candidates for the Japan Liberal Democratic Party presidential election attend a speech meeting in Matsue City, Shimane Prefecture, Japan, on September 20, 2024.
Japan’s heavy hitters slug it out in leadership election
Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party will elect a new president to replace Fumio Kishida on Friday, as the unpopular prime minister prepares to bow out and give his successor a fresh slate ahead of a looming general election. Three names have emerged as the leading candidates: former Defense Minister Shigeru Ishiba, Economic Minister Sanae Takaichi, and former Environment Minister Shinjiro Koizumi, the likely favorite.
What are the candidates promising? Policy-wise, the differences are marginal. Takaichi is somewhat more hawkish on China and more supportive of late PM Shinzo Abe’s economic policies than her peers. All the candidates are strong supporters of the US alliance, though Ishiba went a little further than the others by calling for an Asian version of NATO. The winner will also influence when general elections are held, with Koizumi promising to hold the vote almost immediately while Ishiba and Takaichi display more caution. But a vote must be held before Oct. 31, 2025.
It’s worth noting that, if elected, Takaichi would be the first woman to rule Japan in its modern history, and possibly the first to rule in her own name since the 8th century.
How will the vote work? The first round will be open to both elected LDP legislators and rank-and-file members, with their votes weighted equally. If no candidate secures a majority — which is likely — there will be an immediate runoff between the top two candidates, where legislators have more weight. That dynamic works against Ishiba, who is not popular among party elites. Koizumi’s more moderate image might benefit him in a runoff against the conservative Takaichi, meaning he’s a good bet if he makes it through the first round no matter who he faces in the runoff.
Whoever comes out on top, the Biden administration is hoping they’ll take a leaf from their predecessor, says Eurasia Group’s David Boling. “The White House has loved Kishida, who has made the US-Japan alliance as strong as ever, and will hope the next prime minister follows in Kishida’s footsteps,” he says.