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Shinjiro Koizumi, Sanae Takaichi, Yoshimasa Hayashi, Ichiro Aizawa, Toshimitsu Motegi and Takayuki Kobayashi at a campaign event of the Liberal Democratic Party candidates in Tokyo, Japan, on Sept. 24, 2025.
Japan’s leadership race: gender milestone or generational reset?
Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is holding a leadership race to replace outgoing Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, who resigned in September after defeats in the Upper House and Tokyo’s municipal elections this summer. The party has held power for most of the last 70 years, and this mid-term intra-party election is unprecedented. But it comes as public anger over political finance scandals and inflation (rice prices doubled in one year), as well as anxiety over immigration, have made the case for a reset. The race’s slogan is “Change, LDP,” and on October 4, the LDP could deliver, electing either the country’s first female prime minister or a millennial reformer promising a generational shakeup.
Who’s running?
There are five main candidates but polls show the leading contenders to be former Economic Security Minister Sanae Takaichi, 64, an arch-conservative career politician first elected in 1993 who finished second to Ishiba in last year’s LDP leadership, and the telegenic moderate Shinjiro Koizumi, a 44-year old Agriculture minister. Koizumi has scrambled to lower rice prices and is the son of the charismatic former Prime Minister Junchiro Koizumi, (who, as some of our readers may remember, famously serenaded then-US President George W. Bush with Elvis karaoke in the early 2000s.)
Where Takaichi and Koizumi would take Japan
Takaichi may be a woman, but she’s no feminist, endorsing male primogeniture in Japan’s royal house and styling herself after late UK Prime Minister Dame Margaret Thatcher. She is a foreign policy hawk in the vein of late Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, in whose Cabinet she served in the mid 2000s. Takaichi would revise Japan's pacifist Constitution to formally codify the existence of its Self-Defense Forces and take a tougher line on China. On economics, she also echoes Abe, proposing to issue more bonds to fund a combination of tax cuts and cash payments to households to offset cost-of-living increases, and eliminate gas taxes.
Her “Japan First” policies include reviewing the US-Japan trade deal, cracking down on badly-behaving tourists, and curbing immigration. Lately, however, she has moderated some of her harder-line positions in order to woo centrist voters, promising a gender balance comparable to that of the Nordic countries, where approximately 40% of cabinet members are women, and to ensure “peaceful” coexistence with foreigners.
Koizumi, meanwhile, pledges party reform and practical cost-of-living fixes but wouldn’t take on new debt. He wants to grow productivity and wages to combat inflation, and would also slash gas taxes. He’s taken progressive positions on cultural issues, supporting a women’s right to inherit the imperial throne and agreeing that married couples can use separate surnames. But lately, he has de-emphasized those stances to court more conservative lawmakers. He’s also talking tougher on migration, acknowledging public concern over an increase in foreign residents.
The challenge from the right
Adding to the intrigue, the LDP leadership race comes in the wake of the far-right’s surging popularity in Japan’s national elections last July, when the ultra-nationalist Sanseito party captured 14 seats in the Upper House, after previously holding just one. Sanseito’s traditionalist views on family and fierce opposition to foreigners have carved away the LDP’s right flank and garnered support among young Japanese. The LDP wants to regain both of those groups.
And now, a scandal
This past weekend, Koizumi’s campaign was hit by scandal. He apologized after a campaign worker – who then resigned – solicited supporters to post favorable comments about him while slamming Takaichi – a no-no according to conservative party rules. The scandal has now caused a key LDP coalition partner to call on Koizumi to withdraw from the race. At press time, there has been no response from Koizumi’s camp.
Lawmakers will have more sway than rank-and-file party members
While the public favors Koizumi, party members lean toward Takaichi. And the LDP voting system could work in her favor.
Half of the 590 votes for leader in the first round will be cast by the party’s 295 elected representatives. The other 295 will be allocated proportionally based on the votes of 1 million LDP members – which benefits Koizumi.
But if no candidate clears 50% (which polls say is likely), the top two contenders advance to a runoff where the 295 members of Japan’s parliament still each have one vote, but rank-and-file members only collectively have 47, one from each of the LDP’s prefectural chapters, for a total of 342. That gives lawmakers a greater say and favors establishment candidate Takaichi.
After the vote
Whoever wins will face the same challenges: crafting a coalition to stay in power and maintaining relationships with Japan’s allies. Sanseito says it is open to a coalition deal, but that would alienate more moderate parties. The strongest candidate to join the coalition, according to Eurasia Group’s Director for Japan and Asian Trade, David Boling, is the Japan Innovation Party, which – until the Koizumi scandal – had been holding talks with both camps.
Japan’s relationships with the United States and China pose another challenge. According to Boling, “The US is Japan’s most important ally – no other country is even close. So, at the top of the new prime minister’s to-do list is to have a good relationship with US President Donald Trump and his administration.”
As for China, Japan wants a stable economic relationship, because it is Japan’s top trading partner. But on national security issues, China is also Japan’s top security challenge, making for a tricky balancing act.
Then there’s South Korea. Boling believes that Seoul wouldn’t be pleased with a Takaichi victory, as “her nationalism is a turnoff.”
Will both leading candidates remain in the race? Will the LDP veer right, moderate or progressive? We’ll see just how Japan’s political axis tilts when the vote comes in this week.Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba adjusts his glasses during a press conference as he announces his resignation, in Tokyo, Japan, on September 7, 2025.
Who will be Japan’s next leader?
Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s resignation announcement on Sunday triggered the country’s second leadership battle in less than a year, plunging his center-right Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) deeper into a political crisis.
The party has held power for most of the last 70 years, but recently lost majorities in both houses of the National Diet and suffered a historic defeat in Tokyo’s city council elections. This string of defeats, combined with a stagnant economy and higher inflation, spelt the end for Ishiba.
The LDP must now select a new party leader, who is likely to replace Ishiba as prime minister. That process is likely to unfold in October, though it could come sooner given the urgency of the situation.
To better understand how the leader of Japan, the world’s fourth largest economy, got into this mess after less than a year in power, and who is most likely to replace him, GZERO spoke to one of the top experts on Japanese politics: Eurasia Group’s Japan Director David Boling.
GZERO: Why did Ishiba resign?
Boling: “Three strikes, you’re out,” is probably the most compelling argument against Ishiba. He basically was the leader of the party, and they had three elections where they lost. After that upper house election in July, there was a pretty hard push by a lot of conservatives to call for a special election. Ishiba has a three-year term that started last September, when he was elected. It is unprecedented for the LDP to call for basically a midterm intraparty election. Ishiba was able to stall that for a while, but the momentum started to come back strong.
Last week, they had set up a vote on Monday for whether to have a leadership election, and Ishiba saw the writing on the wall over the weekend. Instead of seeing how this special election would turn out, he could tell that he didn’t have the votes.
Who are the favorites to replace him, and what are their stances?
The two favorites to replace him are well known – they came in right behind Ishiba in the party leadership vote last September.
The person who finished second behind Ishiba was Sanae Takaichi. She is conservative, nationalistic, and a proponent of “Abenomics,” which is loose monetary and fiscal policy. But she’s probably best known for her nationalistic views. She’s a hawk. [She would also be Japan’s first female prime minister.] The person who placed third is Shinjiro Koizumi, a well known name in Japan because his father was prime minister. He’s young, charismatic, and popular. Since they are both members of the LDP, both candidates are broadly pro-US alliance, and right of center. I would put Koizumi as more moderate, and Takaichi as more conservative.
Last thing: what’s the biggest thing to watch out for going forward, once the new leader is determined?
Last October, the LDP and its junior coalition partner Komeito lost their lower house majority, so they now have to work with one of the opposition parties to have enough votes to elect the new LDP leader as prime minister again. I think that it is very likely that whoever is the LDP president will become the next Japanese prime minister, but there will have to be some sort of deal worked out with the opposition parties to have enough votes to approve that person as the next prime minister. The LDP-Komeito coalition may have to make concessions on items for the annual budget, agreeing to spending or taxing provisions favored by the opposition. So that will be the next big watch point.
Nine candidates for the Japan Liberal Democratic Party presidential election attend a speech meeting in Matsue City, Shimane Prefecture, Japan, on September 20, 2024.
Japan’s heavy hitters slug it out in leadership election
Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party will elect a new president to replace Fumio Kishida on Friday, as the unpopular prime minister prepares to bow out and give his successor a fresh slate ahead of a looming general election. Three names have emerged as the leading candidates: former Defense Minister Shigeru Ishiba, Economic Minister Sanae Takaichi, and former Environment Minister Shinjiro Koizumi, the likely favorite.
What are the candidates promising? Policy-wise, the differences are marginal. Takaichi is somewhat more hawkish on China and more supportive of late PM Shinzo Abe’s economic policies than her peers. All the candidates are strong supporters of the US alliance, though Ishiba went a little further than the others by calling for an Asian version of NATO. The winner will also influence when general elections are held, with Koizumi promising to hold the vote almost immediately while Ishiba and Takaichi display more caution. But a vote must be held before Oct. 31, 2025.
It’s worth noting that, if elected, Takaichi would be the first woman to rule Japan in its modern history, and possibly the first to rule in her own name since the 8th century.
How will the vote work? The first round will be open to both elected LDP legislators and rank-and-file members, with their votes weighted equally. If no candidate secures a majority — which is likely — there will be an immediate runoff between the top two candidates, where legislators have more weight. That dynamic works against Ishiba, who is not popular among party elites. Koizumi’s more moderate image might benefit him in a runoff against the conservative Takaichi, meaning he’s a good bet if he makes it through the first round no matter who he faces in the runoff.
Whoever comes out on top, the Biden administration is hoping they’ll take a leaf from their predecessor, says Eurasia Group’s David Boling. “The White House has loved Kishida, who has made the US-Japan alliance as strong as ever, and will hope the next prime minister follows in Kishida’s footsteps,” he says.