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UK's new PM Starmer aims for closer EU ties
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden and co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations, shares his perspective on European politics from the Adriatic Sea.
How will the new UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer reset relations at home and abroad?
Well, I think overall there's going to be a lot of continuity in terms of foreign and security policies. They've already sent the defense secretary to Kyiv to say that if anything, it's going to be even stronger support. But in terms of Europe, it’s going to be a new nuance and new attempts. The new foreign secretary, David Lammy, has already been to Germany, he's been to Poland, he’s been to Sweden, and he's talked about a European pact, foreign and security issues, cooperating more closely. And he's been invited to a meeting with all of the foreign ministers. So that's where we are likely to see, some change in the months and perhaps years ahead.
How did Macron survive the snap election in France?
Yep, that remains to be seen. There was, of course, a surprise result in the sense that the extreme right came in third after first the left, which has some extreme element, and then President Macron's coalition. But it's a hung parliament. There's no clear answer who's going to govern. So, we'll have to wait and see what's going to be the governance of France. I think the emphasis has shifted from isolating the far right to isolating the far left and see some sort of stable government can be made out of that. Very much an open question.
Graphic Truth: 2024 Euro Cup of Approval
The Euro Cup kicked off on June 14 and is now down to the final eight, with the beautiful game having seen its fair share of victories and upsets in recent weeks. At the same time, battles have been waged on the political stage, with the far right surging first in European Parliament elections and then in the first round in France this past weekend.
All this talk of soccer and politics made us wonder … how well would these countries compete if the matches were decided based on national leader approval ratings?
Soccer powerhouses England and France are favored to dominate the Euros. But their leaders, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and President Emmanuel Macron, both of whom suffer from low approval ratings (and are watching their electorates head to the polls this weekend), wouldn’t generate the same optimism on the pitch.
What happens when we swap national sides for leaders – is your favorite team still in with a chance?
FILE PHOTO: Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orban and Italy's Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni attend a European Union leaders' summit in Brussels, Belgium, June 27, 2024.
Austrian, Hungarian, and Czech far-right form new EU coalition
What is this, a Hapsburg revival? Right-wingers from the political core of the former Austro-Hungarian Empire announced Sunday they would form a new Russia-leaning alliance in the EU parliament. Austria’s Freedom Party, Hungary’s Fidesz, and the Czech Republic’s Action of Dissatisfied Citizens, aka ANO, have committed, but the “Patriots of Europe” alliance needs at least one MP from four other EU member states to become an official faction, which they seem confident of obtaining.
The move draws a clear cleavage in the far-right camp between pro- and anti-Ukraine parties on Europe’s far right. Italian Prime Minister GiorgiaMeloni has forged a pragmatic path to electability by leaning heavily into support for Ukraine and the EU while insisting on hardline immigration policies. It’s paid off for her, but her approaches – and meteoric rise – haven’t sat well with some of the Euroskeptic, Russia-friendly old guard. This new alliance is their play for greater relevance in Brussels, to avoid being overshadowed by Meloni’s new kids on the populist bloc.
What we’re watching: Does Alternative for Germany, recently expelled from Marine Le Pen’s Identity and Democracy faction, join them? AfD won 16% of the vote in Germany during this month’s EU Parliament elections, and their allegiance would elevate Patriots for Europe. That said, the far right is already divided between Le Pen’s Identity and Democracy and Meloni’s European Conservatives and Reformists. Slicing off another piece only helps centrists like European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen sleep a little easier.Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, Moldova's President Maia Sandu and President of the European Council Charles Michel attend a joint press conference, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Kyiv, Ukraine November 21, 2023.
Europe flirts with the East but won’t yet commit
The European Union has expanded to the East in recent years, but some would-be members remain in line to join the club.
On Tuesday, Ukraine and Moldova finally began talks to join the European Union after applying for membership within weeks of Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. (Ironically, it was Ukrainian protests over their president’s failure to sign a trade agreement with Europe that triggered the uprising that led Vladimir Putin to invade Crimea in 2014.)
Eager to encourage them, the EU has “fast-tracked” their processes, but aligning with the union’s dozens of policy requirements takes time. (Just ask Turkey, now entering its 20th year of talks.) Ukraine must also contend with efforts by Hungary’s government, Russia’s best European friend, to block Kyiv’s bid to join both the EU and NATO.
But the EU isn’t the only club open for new memberships. The eurozone, a monetary union comprised of 20 member states, told EU members Bulgaria and Romania they haven’t yet cleared the hurdles needed to adopt the euro. Bulgaria is close; of all the needed economic criteria, its high inflation is the only remaining barrier to entry. Romania must do much more to tame inflation, bribery, money laundering, and Russian influence on its policymaking.
Macron's snap election gamble will have repercussions for France and EU
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden and co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations, shares his perspective on European politics from Tabiano Castello, Italy.
Did French President Emmanuel Macron make a grave mistake by calling for parliamentary elections now?
Well, remains to be seen. I think it should be seen also in the run up, in the context of the run up to the 2027 presidential elections, they’re going to be the real crucial ones. I think he faced the prospect of a slow death in the National Assembly and deciding that this was the only option where he had any possibility whatsoever, of recovering some strength, if that's possible. Now, France is facing a very difficult choice between the far-right, a resurgent far-right, which had roughly 40% of the vote in the European elections, and a far-left, which is equally destructive in different ways, and the center ground having lost out considerably.
So a couple of weeks to go before we get the final results. But it's a big gamble that will have profound repercussions, not only for France, but for Europe as a whole.
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Eric Ciotti speaks to media in front of the LR heaquarters in Paris, France on June 11, 2024. The president of the Republicains, Eric Ciotti, announced on TF1 on Tuesday 11 June that he would like his party to form an alliance with the Rassemblement National for the legislative elections.
France’s center right splits over cooperating with Le Pen
The leader of France’s center-right party, Les Republicains, set off a firestorm on Tuesday by suggesting he would be open to an alliance with the far-right National Rally in upcoming snap elections. Éric Ciotti said his party’s dismal performance in European parliament elections over the weekend — fifth place, and just six seats — meant he felt obligated to work with Marine Le Pen to fend off the “threat to the nation” from the left wing and centrist parties.
Le Pen called the decision “brave,” but it’s driving a wedge through France’s traditional conservative party. Olivier Marleix, who leads Les Republicains in the lower house, called for Ciotti to step down and said he would not participate in any agreement with the far right, a sentiment many in the party echoed.
That’s exactly the kind of reaction President Emmanuel Macron is betting on to keep his party in control of the legislature in the upcoming vote on June 30. It’s worked for him before: French voters who went to Les Republicains or a party on the fractured left wing in the first rounds of the 2017 and 2022 elections begrudgingly pulled the lever for Macron in the second round after seeing a strong initial showing for Le Pen.
Can he make it a hat trick? Maybe, but it’s a huge gamble, and Macron’s approval polls are weaker now than they were two years ago. But if voters react like Marleix, he has a shot.
Macron's call for a snap election in France is a huge gamble
What happened in the European Parliament elections? Why is President Macron calling for a snap election in France? Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden and co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations, shares his perspective on European politics from Berlin, Germany.
What happened in the European Parliament elections?
Well, there was a shift, no question, but not the fundamental shift to the far-right that quite a number of pundits have been speculating about. If you look at what's been the sort o, the governing coalition, if you might use that phrase, of the center-right DPP, the Social Democrats, and the liberals Renew, they used to have roughly 59% of the seats in the European Parliament. They now have 56% of the seats in the European Parliament. It is a shift, no question about that, but hardly a fundamental one. And I don't think you will see much of a shift in policies resulting out of that.
Why is President Macron calling for a snap election in France?
Well, of course, even if there wasn't the major shift in European Parliament, there was a significant shift in individual countries. And, most dramatically, it was in France where President Macron suffered a very significant setback with the far-right, combined, getting roughly 40% of the electorate. Well, he decided this can't go on. So, he dissolved the National Assembly, called for new elections, got to be, sort of, in the early July, the decisive round. It’s a huge gamble. He might not have had much of a choice, but it’s a gamble anyhow. Will we end up with some sort of cohabitation between President Macron and elements of the nationalist right to France? Remains to be seen, but highly likely. Or will he succeed to mobilize those that are against this development in the country? That also remains to be seen. But that, of course, is going to have a fairly fundamental impact on what happened, not only in France but in the rest of Europe as well.
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- Macron rolls the dice on France’s future ›
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- Macron's snap election gamble will have repercussions for France and EU - GZERO Media ›
French President Emmanuel Macron attends a ceremony marking the 80th anniversary of the massacre of 643 persons by Nazi German forces, in Oradour-sur-Glane, France, June 10, 2024.
Macron rolls the dice on France’s future
Following a humbling 17-point defeat to Marine Le Pen’s far-right opposition party in the EU Parliament elections this weekend, France’s President Emmanuel Macron shocked the world by calling for snap elections to be held on June 30.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz also suffered defeat to the far-right over the weekend, but he rejected demands for him to follow in Macron’s footsteps and call a snap election.
Macron’s logique: Macron is daring French voters to vote the same way domestically that they did this weekend for the European Parliament – which has long been seen as a protest vote.
According to Eurasia Group’s Europe directorMujtaba Rahman, “Macron believes he can defy the polls by confronting France with a stark choice between the pro-EU, pro-Ukraine & centrist status quo versus the existential risk of a far-right government.”
Macron is making a huge gamble on France's future. Polls suggest his centrist coalition will fail to win a majority, and if Le Pen’s National Rally picks up the most seats, France will be in uncharted waters. Le Pen has said she would partially withhold EU funding, toughen migration policy, infringe on the EU single market by prioritizing French business, and limit aid to Ukraine.