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Dutch far-right politician and leader of the Freedom Party Geert Wilders gestures as he meets with party members after the parliamentary elections in The Hague, Netherlands, on Nov. 23, 2023.
Dutch voters take hard-right turn: Will more of the EU follow?
Wilders has long promoted anti-Muslim policies, including a ban on Islamic schools, Qurans, mosques, and the wearing of hijab inside government buildings. Wilders has now tempered these pledges, saying he will “continue to moderate” his policies as coalition talks resume on Monday.
Wilders’ Freedom Party is expected to obtain 37 seats in the 150-seat Parliament, which falls short of the 76 needed under the Netherlands’ proportional representation system to secure a majority of seats. He must cement alliances with enough other parties to do so, and his dance card includes the center-right New Social Contract Party, with 20 seats, as well as the right-leaning People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy, aka VVV, which formed the previous government, now with 24 seats.
Outgoing VVV Prime Minister Mark Rutte says he will not join Wilders’ coalition but could back a “centre-right” government. NSC leader Pieter Omtzigt said he could not enter a coalition with Wilders unless he recanted the Quran and mosque ban. And Wilders wants to cut EU funding and promised a referendum on membership, while Omtzigt opposes a “Nexit.”
Meanwhile, Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orbán toasted Wilder’s win, saying “The winds of change are here!” Far-right Flemish independence leader Tom Van Grieken, who is leading in the polls for Belgium’s June 2024 elections, also congratulated Wilders, saying “Parties like ours are on their way in the whole of Europe.”
But perhaps the most significant beneficiary could be Marine Le Pen, leader of France’s far-right Rassemblement National, who also cheered Wilders’ victory. Rassemblement National is leading opinion polls in France for next June’s elections to the European Parliament, with 28% of the vote compared to 19% for French President Emmanuel Macron’s party and its allies. A shift to the right could reverse the EU’s stand on policies related to climate action, EU reform, and weapons for Ukraine, while also impacting migration policies.
Is the EU's landmark AI bill doomed?
Marietje Schaake, International Policy Fellow, Stanford Human-Centered Artificial Intelligence, and former European Parliamentarian, co-hosts GZERO AI, our new weekly video series intended to help you keep up and make sense of the latest news on the AI revolution. In this episode, she talks about the potential pitfalls of the imminent EU AI Act and the sudden resistance that could jeopardize it altogether.
After a weekend full of drama around OpenAI, it is now time to shift to another potentially dramatic conclusion of an AI challenge, namely the EU AI Act, that's entering its final phase. And this week, the Member States of the EU will decide on their position. And there is sudden resistance coming from France and Germany in particular, to including foundation models in the EU AI Act. And I think that is a mistake. I think it is crucial for a safe but also competitive and democratically governed AI ecosystem that foundation models are actually part of the EU AI Act, which would be the most comprehensive AI law that the democratic world has put forward. So, the world is watching, and it is important that EU leaders understand that time is really of the essence if we look at the speed of development of artificial intelligence and in particular, generative AI.
And actually, that speed of development is what's kind of catching up now with the negotiators, because in the initial phase, the European Commission had designed the law to be risk-based when we look at the outcomes of AI applications. So, if AI is used to decide on whether to hire someone or give them access to education or social benefits, the consequences for the individual impacted can be significant and so, proportionate to the risk, mitigating measures should be in place. And the law was designed to include anything from very low or no-risk applications to high and unacceptable risk of applications, such as a social credit scoring system as unacceptable, for example. But then when generative AI products started flooding the market, the European Parliament, which was taking its position, decided, “We need to look at the technology as well. We cannot just look at the outcomes.” And I think that that is critical because foundation models are so fundamental. Really, they form the basis of so much downstream use that if there are problems at that initial stage, they ripple through like an earthquake in many, many applications. And if you don't want startups or downstream users to be confronted with liability or very high compliance costs, then it's also important to start at the roots and make sure that sort of the core ingredients of the uses of these AI models are properly governed and that they are safe and okay to use.
So, when I look ahead at December, when the European Commission, the European Parliament and Member States come together, I hope negotiators will look at the way in which foundation models can be regulated, that it is not a yes or no to regulation, but it's a progressive work tiered approach that really attaches the strongest mitigating or scrutiny measures to the most powerful players. The way that has been done in many other sectors. It would be very appropriate for AI foundation models, as well. There's a lot of debate going on. Open letters are being penned, op-ed experts are speaking out, and I'm sure there is a lot of heated debate between Member States of the European Union. I just hope that the negotiators appreciate that the world is watching. Many people with great hope as to how the EU can once again regulate on the basis of its core values, and that with what we now know about how generative AI is built upon these foundation models, it would be a mistake to overlook them in the most comprehensive EU AI law.
Argentine presidential candidate Javier Milei gestures during the closing event of his electoral campaign ahead of the November 19 runoff election, in Cordoba, Argentina, November 16, 2023.
Milei’s win raises pressure for completion of EU-Latin America trade deal
Javier Milei’s victory in Argentina’s presidential election could rapidly accelerate negotiations for a trade treaty between the Mercosur trade bloc and the EU. Milei, a self-declared anarcho-capitalist, vowed to pull Argentina from Mercosur altogether if he won. His victory raises questions about the future of the bloc and talks surrounding the treaty.
A trade pact between the bloc — Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay — and the EU has been in the works for years, and the two sides reached an agreement in principle in 2019. But talks have been stalled ever since thanks to disagreements over environmental commitments pushed by the EU.
The Milei effect: There now appears to be a mad dash to complete an agreement before Argentina inaugurates Milei, a far-right libertarian who’s drawn comparisons to former US President Donald Trump. Diplomats involved in the negotiations told the Financial Times they’re hoping to wrap things up by early December.
“The talks are moving ahead fast,” a Brazilian official taking part in the negotiations told Reuters.
As a climate-change denier, the Argentine president-elect could complicate negotiations on environmentally related matters. While it would be tough to finalize the deal before his inauguration, this might be the incentive all parties need to get to the finish line. We’ll be watching to see whether they can reach a deal before Milei takes office on Dec. 10.
Russia leaves nuclear test ban treaty in show of public posturing
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden, shares his perspective on European politics from Stockholm.
What can be done by Europe or others to help the 1.7 million Afghan refugees that are now being expelled from Pakistan back into Afghanistan?
Well, sorry to say the answer is not very much can be done. We are delivering humanitarian aid to some extent, and the UN is there to Afghanistan, but to take care of or to help substantially 1.7 million people that are expelled from Pakistan is going to be very difficult. Relationship with the Taliban regime is virtually non-existent, so it's one of these tragedies that are happening at the same time as we have the Gaza War and the Ukraine War.
Does Europe feel less secure now that Russia has revoked its ratification of the test ban treaty?
Well, not really changing very much. What the Russians are doing is that they're doing, to the same situation as the Americans have, because the US hasn't ratified the CTBT either, but they adhere to it, and that is just as well. So, the Russians decided, and I think it's a signaling effect to some extent, that nuclear weapons are there and that they, at some point in time, might presume nuclear testing. But until they do that, and I hope they don't, it doesn't mean very much, but it shows that they are sort of playing around with nuclear weapons and with public posturing with nuclear weapons, which of course is less than good.
Putin tries to advance in Ukraine while world focuses on Gaza
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden, shares his perspective on European politics from Stockholm.
What's been the reaction so far of the European Union to the war in Gaza?
Well, the vote in the UN General Assembly the other day, the Jordanian-sponsored one on protection of civilians and legal unitarian obligations, you saw the European Union countries all over the place. You had eight of them voting in favor of the resolution, four voting against, and the rest simply abstaining. So it was not the most glorious moment. This is a highly divisive issue, and we'll see where it goes from here.
What's been the effect of the Gaza war on Ukraine?
The war in Ukraine is going on. At the moment, there has been, for the last week, a very large attempt by Russia to conduct offensive operations in the vicinity of Donetsk. They've been throwing a lot of men and a lot of material into that, making some small gains, but they've also had horrendous losses. We'll see how that continues. It's evidently that Mr. Putin wants to be able to say that he's making some advances, not very credible so far. And the day entries of course, that the attention of the world is going to be elsewhere and that a large part of the world is going to see the Western reaction to Gaza and Ukraine combined as if we see international law that is something that is there for a la carte, which it shouldn't really be.
Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic speaks during an interview with Reuters in Belgrade, Serbia, September 28, 2023.
Kosovo and Serbia to restart talks
Well, even as one of the world’s most intractable conflicts gets steadily worse, there’s at least a chance that another will get slightly better. This Saturday, the leaders of Serbia and Kosovo will meet with US and EU officials to try to revive peace talks.
It will be the first time the two have met since tensions spiked last month due to a deadly shootout between Serb nationalists in Northern Kosovo and local Kosovar police officers. Kosovo accused Serbia of plotting the attack, while Belgrade briefly mobilized its troops to the border before backing down under US pressure.
Background: Albanian-majority Kosovo unilaterally declared independence from Serbia in 2008, after a decade of war and Serbian attempts at ethnic cleansing. Serbia, which considers Kosovo part of its ancestral heartland, doesn’t recognize the Kosovar government – nor do ethnic Serb communities living in northern Kosovo.
The talks will aim to revive an EU-brokered peace framework that envisions de facto recognition of Kosovo in exchange for Kosovo giving broad autonomy to Serbs in the north.
There is a strong incentive to make progress: The EU will soon begin meetings on enlarging the union. Serbia and Kosovo both want in, but Brussels has been clear that it can’t happen until they make peace.
For more on the “dangerous limbo” of Serbia-Kosovo relations, see our explainer here.
Can the EU get aid to Gaza?
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden, shares his perspective on European politics - this week from Milan.
Can Europe help with the humanitarian crisis in Gaza?
Well, in theory, absolutely. The European Commission has tripled the amount of money available for humanitarian help to Gaza. But the problem is, of course, getting it in. For reasons that is beyond me, the Rafah border crossing between Egypt and Gaza is closed. There's a lot of floods of humanitarian help outside that has been flowing into Egypt, waiting to cross, but they are not opening up the border. I would hope that there will be soon an agreement to open up that border and allow the help to get into Gaza. There’re huge numbers, millions of people that are really suffering and need that particular help. Now, that is also politically important, obviously.
What's going to be the effect of the Polish election?
Well, in a rather dark picture, in terms of global and other affairs, this is a bright spot. A rather decisive win for the democratic and European opposition in Poland. Now, it's going to take some time to form a government. The PiS, the outgoing party, is still the largest party in parliament, so they will get a first go at forming a government. And I think they will try all sorts of tricks for a while. That's going to take weeks, but they will fail, and then we will have a new government. With Donald Tusk returning as prime minister, we will have a government in Poland that is decidedly democratic, committed to the rule of law, committed to European integration, committed to helping Ukraine. That is in a dark situation otherwise, distinctly good news.
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Donald Tusk, the leader of the largest opposition grouping Civic Coalition (KO), speaks at the meeting with women during election convention in Lodz, Poland, October 10, 2023.
Poles to the polls!
This weekend, Poles go to the polls in a Poland that is as polarized between political poles — ok, ok, we’ll stop. But the election is a supremely big deal for the EU’s fifth most populous country, a nation that is aiming to become the military superpower of Eastern Europe.
The ruling Law and Justice Party, aka PiS, which has held power since 2015, is hoping that its mix of Catholic-inflected nationalism and generous social welfare payments will help it to carry the day, despite an increasingly sluggish economy. PiS is currently leading the polls, at 37%
The main opposition party, Civic Platform, known by its Polish initials "PO", says the current government’s ultra-conservative social values are out of touch with today's Poland, and it warns that the PiS's abuse of democratic norms is distancing the country from the rest of Europe — the EU has already withheld money from Warsaw over the government’s moves to undermine the judiciary. PO, led by former Prime Minister and one-time European Commission president Donald Tusk, is polling at 30%.
“Fundamentally the election is about this age-old Polish question of ‘what is Poland?’,” says Aaron Korewa, director of the Atlantic Council’s Warsaw office. “Is it going to be more like the Western European countries, which is what the opposition proposes, or is it going to go in its own special direction, which is what the current government is all about?”
Is Ukraine part of this story? Yes. While most Poles are united in supporting Ukraine’s fight against Russia, Korewa says, the war’s impact on the domestic scene in Poland is a different story. Over Kyiv’s objections, Warsaw has banned imports of Ukrainian grain to protect Polish farmers, and there has been grumbling about the costs of supporting and integrating the more than 1 million Ukrainian refugees currently in Poland.
Small parties, big impact. While PO and PiS are the heavyweights, analysts say the election will hinge on the performance of two smaller parties: One is Confederation, an upstart mashup of libertarians and ultranationalist Euroskeptics that is challenging PiS from the far right. Confederation has risen to 10% in the polls, in part by calling for a rollback of support for Ukrainian refugees.
The other party to watch is Third Way, a center-right liberal party whose platform is closer to Tusk’s. If Third Way surpasses the 8% threshold of the vote that is needed to enter parliament, analysts say, this will give PO a much stronger chance of forming a government. Third Way heads into the election polling at 11%.
There’s also a juicy personal feud at the heart of the election: PiS leader Jarosław Kaczyński and PO’s Tusk publicly despise each other.
A generation ago, both men worked alongside famed dissident Lech Wałęsa to bring down communism, but by the mid-2000s they were bitter rivals. Kaczyński sees Tusk as a traitor who will sell out Poland’s interests to Brussels and Berlin. It doesn’t help that he thinks Tusk was involved in the 2010 airplane crash in Russia that killed his twin brother Lech, who was then Poland’s president. Tusk sees the reclusive Kaczyński, meanwhile, as an out-of-touch eccentric who poses a danger to the country’s democracy.
What’s likely to happen? Given the fragmentation of the vote, and Poland’s deep polarization, analysts expect a hung parliament in which no party is strong enough to form a government. In that case, says Eurasia Group’s Anna Carina-Hamker, Confederation could be the kingmaker.
The results? Should be known by early next week. See you then.