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Is Serbia pivoting towards Ukraine?
In this episode of Europe in :60, Carl Bildt breaks down Serbia’s evolving foreign policy, and political developments in Poland.
After President Vučić’s visit to Ukraine, Bildt notes, “I think he is in the black book of the Kremlin because of that particular visit,” highlighting shifting alliances in the Balkans.
On Poland, following Donald Tusk’s post-election confidence vote, Bildt explains the challenges ahead: “The president can veto legislation, he can block important appointments.”
As Serbia weighs its EU path and Poland navigates internal politics, Bildt offers timely analysis on regional stability and European security affairs.
EU pressures Israel over Gaza, Romania surprises, Poland vote ahead
In this episode of Europe In 60 Seconds, former prime minister of Sweden Carl Bildt checks in from Dayton, Ohio, with sharp insights on two key developments: The EU’s decision to review its association agreement with Israel amid mounting criticism of Israeli actions in Gaza and the West Bank, and a surprise turn in Romania’s presidential race where a centrist victory defied populist expectations.
Plus, all eyes turn to Poland for a critical second-round election on June 1. What’s at stake for Europe’s political future?
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and European Union foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini brief the media at the European Council in Brussels, Belgium, on December 11, 2017.
What We’re Watching: Pressure on Israel, Jitters in Bolivia, Podcasts for Democrats
Israel under fresh pressure
The UK and EU threatened Tuesday to revise trade ties with Israel unless PM Benjamin Netanyahu stops the new offensive in the Gaza Strip and allows sufficient humanitarian aid into the besieged enclave. This comes after the UK, Canada, and France threatened Israel on Monday with “concrete measures,” like sanctions. Netanyahu and his far right coalition allies say they are intent on destroying Hamas, though critics warn Israel is becoming a “pariah.”
The Morales of the story: Bolivian heavyweight to defy election exclusion
Bolivia’s socialist powerbroker Evo Morales, who governed from 2006 until he was ousted in protests in 2019, is officially ineligible to run in this August’s presidential election because of term limits. Yet he has pledged to mobilize his supporters to defy this rule, setting up a potentially destabilizing contest as his once-formidable leftwing MAS movement splinters into rival factions.
Democratic donors try a pivot to podcast
Faced with the vast array of conservative or MAGA-friendly online influencers who helped Donald Trump to win the 2024 election, Democrats and their donors are now trying to cultivate a creator economy of their own ahead of the 2026 midterms. There’s lots of money and pitches, but can you really create a viable ecosystem of influencers overnight? Authenticity, the heartbeat of any political campaign, is hard to create in a lab. You’re either a born killer or you’re not.
President Joe Biden at an event with Kamala Harris on lowering drug costs for America.
HARD NUMBERS: Biden diagnosed with cancer, Russian drones hammer Ukraine, Israeli forces enter Gaza, Pope Leo gets political, UK and EU are friends again, Austria wins Eurovision
9: Former US President Joe Biden, 82, has been diagnosed with prostate cancer that has metastasized to the bone. Biden’s cancer has a “Gleason score” of 9 out of 10, which means it is highly aggressive, but since it requires hormones to grow, may respond to treatment that deprives the tumors of hormones. Both US President Donald Trump and former Vice President Kamala Harris expressed their sorrow on social media and wished the former president a successful recovery as he and his family review treatment options.
273: Russia launched 273 drones in the Kyiv region of Ukraine Sunday, killing one woman and causing widespread damage in its biggest drone attack of the war. Ukraine accused Russia of also intending to fire an intercontinental ballistic missile, but Moscow did not comment. The escalation comes ahead of US President Donald Trump’s calls with the presidents of Russia and Ukraine on Monday, to broker a ceasefire deal.
140: Palestinian health officials say Israeli air strikes killed over 140 people in Gaza Sunday, raising accusations of ethnic cleansing by the UN. Israel subsequently began a ground offensive in the territory after peace talks stalled in Qatar, with officials saying that the strikes were part of its plans to “achieve all of the war goals in Gaza” and establish “operational control” of parts of the territory.
200,000: An estimated 200,000 well-wishers, including a slew of world leaders, packed St. Peter’s Square in Rome for the first sermon of Pope Leo XIV - and the pontiff didn’t leave out the politics. Leo stated that his role is to serve without “yielding to the temptation to be an autocrat,” remarked on Ukraine being “martyred,” and deplored the people of Gaza being “reduced to starvation.”
12: The United Kingdom and the European Union have decided that there are plenty of fish in the sea for them to share: London granted EU boats access to UK waters for the next 12 years in return for fewer checks on British food exports to the 27-country bloc. The deal also includes a significant security pact. It’s a significant moment for UK-EU relations, just nine years after their infamous divorce.
160 million: Austria took top prize in the 69th Eurovision song contest Saturday, with classically trained countertenor JJ wowing an estimated 160 million viewers with his soaring pop-opera ballad, Wasted Love. Second place went to Yuval Raphael of Israel with a moving trilingual performance of New Day Will Rise, while Tommy Cash of Estonia came in third with his frothy fast-dancing confection, Espresso Macchiato.Albanian opposition leader Sali Berisha casts his vote at a polling station during parliamentary elections in Tirana, Albania, on May 11, 2025.
Can the MAGA message work in the Balkans?
For all the talk of a US-Europe split, US President Donald Trump’s supporters are rather invested in elections on the continent. Tesla owner Elon Musk advocated for Alternative for Germany (AfD) ahead of that country’s election in February. Donald Trump Jr. met one of the nationalist presidential candidates ahead of Romania’s election, while favorite George Simion now actively courts his father.
Now it’s Albania’s turn. Trump’s former co-campaign manager Chris LaCivita has been boosting former Prime Minister Sali Berisha’s bid to return to power on the Adriatic Sea. LaCivita got a hand from the Heritage Foundation, the conservative think tank behind Project 2025. The group “has been instrumental in helping Albania’s Democratic Party reshape its electoral program and platform,” according to Sokol Lleshi, a politics professor at the University of New York, Tirana, pitching traditional family values with a familiar slogan to match: “Make Albania Great Again.”
But will MAGA find a following in Albania? We’ll know by Tuesday, when the results of Sunday’s national election are expected.
Who’s in the race? Berisha, who leads the center-right Democratic Party (PD), ran against three-term incumbent Prime Minister Edi Rama, head of the center-left Socialist Party (PS). While the opposition leader recycled the MAGA message, Rama’s campaign centered on achieving accession to the European Union by 2030. Several other smaller parties hope to win some of the 140 parliamentary seats to gain influence.
Who’s going to win? With roughly 30% of the ballots counted, Rama is running away with it – the PS has garnered 53% of the vote thus far, while PD flounders on 34% – raising questions over the salience of the MAGA message in this Eastern European enclave. Hard-right parties have enjoyed success in Italy, Germany, Hungary and Romania, but plugging and playing this strategy into Albania isn’t as straightforward, in part because the country wants to join the EU.
“The Democratic Party has relied a lot on some of the ideological messages of the MAGA movement and Donald Trump,” said Lleshi. “So they are not talking too much or sufficiently enough, in my understanding, about EU integration.”
The Battering Ram-a. The current global conditions may make Tirana’s EU accession possible: With the White House distancing itself from Europe, the 27-member bloc is looking to strengthen its position, and its ranks. This underscores why the eccentric and artistic Rama is favorite to win a 4th term.
Just one problem. Corruption has tarnished Albanian politics ever since the country regained independence in 1991. This has stymied Tirana’s efforts to join the EU, since rooting out graft is a precondition for membership. Many of Rama’s allies have been found guilty of corruption, and several political leaders from other parties, including Berisha, face corruption allegations.
SPAK, Albania’s anti-graft body formed in 2019, is trying to root out this problem – it is one of the most trusted institutions in Albania.The opposition leader’s disdain for SPAK thus puts him out of sync with much of the electorate.
Middling MAGA. If Rama wins, this will mark the third recent foreign election where MAGA opponents have won. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney rode a wave of anti-American sentiment to win last month’s election, while Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese roared to victory over his MAGA-lite opponent last weekend. Though Rama’s message hasn’t been explicitly anti-American – the country has pro-American roots, dating back to President Woodrow Wilson’s support for Albanian independence after World War I – his expected victory suggests there are limits to transplanting the MAGA message abroad.
Outside of politics, what’s interesting about Albania? First of all, it has a rather distinctive flag, featuring a double-headed eagle on a sharp, red background (an inspiration for the Durmstrang Institute of Harry Potter fame). Its most renowned citizen is pop star Dua Lipa, although she was born and raised in London.
Dua could vote, too. A change in the voting rules means that everyone in the Albanian diaspora — which comprises over a million people — was able to draw a ballot for this election. However, only 245,000 of them requested a mail-in vote, of which 181,000 had been returned as of Sunday morning, per Lleshi. The professor says that gauging how the diaspora voted, however, is a fool’s errand.French President Emmanuel Macron talks with Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa as they arrive to attend a joint press conference after a meeting at the Elysee Palace in Paris, France, on May 7, 2025.
Syria’s president visits France, and chats (indirectly) with Israel
Syria’s interim president Ahmed al-Sharaa, the former jihadist whose forces overthrew the dictatorship of Bashar al-Assad last December, met on Wednesday with French President Emmanuel Macron. It was his first trip to Europe.
The upshot: The French president said he would push for the lifting of EU sanctions – which have been in place since 2011 – if al-Sharaa continued on a path of reform and reconstruction that respected the rights of Syria’s religious minorities. He said he’d also lobby the US to follow suit.
The goal: France, with regional players Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Turkey, favors swift relief from Western sanctions against Syria to speed the rebuilding of a country wrecked by civil war and mass emigration.
But the US has been more cautious, giving Damascus a list of conditions for sanctions removal that include icing out Iran, expelling Palestinian groups, and giving the American military a free hand in Syria.
The bombshell: During the meeting, Al-Sharaa revealed Syria has been holding indirect security talks with Israel. That’s a big deal: since Assad’s fall, Israel has bombed Syrian military sites, expanded a “buffer zone” into the country, and conducted airstrikes on behalf of Syria’s Druze minority.
Any prospect of an accord with Israel – which is deeply suspicious of Damascus’ intentions – would significantly improve Syria’s prospects of stability and prosperity.UK Secretary of State for Business and Trade Jonathan Reynolds meets Indian Minister of Commerce and Industry Piyush Goyal for trade talks, in London, United Kingdom, on April 28, 2025.
UK, India finally cinch trade deal
The United Kingdom on Tuesday sealed its largest trade deal since leaving the European Union, inking a pact with India in a big political win for Prime Minister Keir Starmer.
The highlights: drink and drive. India’s tariffs on UK whisky and gin will halve from 150% to 75%, before falling to 40% over the next decade. Levies on UK auto products will also plummet from 100% to 10%, albeit with some quotas in place. The UK, in turn, will slash tariffs on Indian clothing, foodstuffs, and jewels.
UK-India trade surpassed $50 billion last year, and the deal is projected to add $35 billion a year by 2040.
Starmer succeeds where Sunak failed. Former PM Rishi Sunak had tried desperately to clinch a deal with India during his 20-month premiership.
The migration angle. The pact exempts Indians on short-term UK visas from paying social security taxes for three years – the UK right is already mad about that.
Mujtaba Rahman, Eurasia Group’s managing director of Europe, said the deal is “welcome news” for the UK government.
“However, the real test for Keir Starmer will be how far he can dismantle the trade friction with the UK’s biggest trading partner – the EU,” Rahman added. “That will require a bolder approach than we have seen so far.”
U.S. Senator Chris Van Hollen (D-MD) speaks to the media during a visit to El Salvador to advocate for the release of Kilmar Abrego Garcia, a Salvadoran man deported without due process by the Trump administration and sent to the Terrorism Confinement Center (CECOT), in San Salvador, El Salvador, on April 16, 2025.
HARD NUMBERS: Maryland senator flies to El Salvador, Russian journalists jailed, California sues Trump admin over tariffs, EU tilts right on asylum, Peru’s ex-president guilty of money laundering
1: On Wednesday, Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-MD) flew to El Salvador to advocate for the release of Kilmar Abgrego Garcia, a Maryland resident wrongfully deported to a brutal high-security prison there. Van Hollen, who met with the Salvadoran vice president, is the only US lawmaker to make the trip. The Supreme Court ruled last week that the Trump administration should “facilitate” Garcia’s return to the United States, but US President Donald Trump has shown no willingness to do so. (Does that mean the United States is facing a constitutional crisis? Here’s what Ian Bremmer has to say).
4: Four Russian journalists were convicted of extremism and jailed in a closed-door trial in Moscow for associating with the Anti-Corruption Fund — a group founded by the late opposition leader and political activist Alexei Navalny. The individuals pleaded not guilty, arguing they were merely doing their jobs as independent journalists.
-0.2: Before Washington unveiled sweeping tariffs that rocked the global economy, the World Trade Organization forecasted global goods trade to grow by 2.7% in 2025. The updated forecast shows a decrease of 0.2%, a swing of 2.9 percentage points. WTO director general Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala also warned that trade between the US and China could plunge by 81-91%, due to the superpowers’ trade war.
5th: California, the fifth-largest economy in the world, sued the Trump administration over the “emergency” rule that allowed the executive branch to impose tariffs — a power constitutionally reserved for Congress, the Golden State alleges.
7: The European Union has designated seven countries—Kosovo, Colombia, Morocco, Tunisia, Egypt, Bangladesh, and India — as“safe” places for migrants to return, a decision that will result in the denial of asylum applications for citizens from those countries. The move comes amid growing anti-immigrant pressure from far-right parties across the continent.
15: Peru’s former president Ollanta Humala and his wife Nadine Heredia have been found guilty of money laundering and each sentenced to 15 years in prison. The couple was convicted of accepting nearly $3 million in illegal campaign funds from construction giant Odebrecht and hundreds of thousands of dollars from the late Venezuelan dictator Hugo Chávez. Humala was taken into custody, whereas Heredia sought asylum at the Brazilian embassy in Lima and was granted safe passage to Brazil.