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Is an EU-China trade war brewing?
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden and co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations, shares his perspective on European politics from Vienna, Austria
Is there a risk of a full-scale trade war between the European Union and China?
Hopefully not. But it was a decision, somewhat controversial, the other day by the EU to impose tariffs, not too high but still substantial, on electric vehicles coming from China. The US, of course, has done something similar but much higher tariffs and without much of a theoretical justification. I mean, the EU tried to ground its different decisions in analysis of the subsidies generated or given to the different Chinese car manufacturers. China will retaliate in one way or the other. But talks are going on and there's no interest in a trade war either from the EU side or from the Chinese side. And we should not forget, by the way, that for the moment, there are 100 times more cars sold by European companies in China than Chinese vehicles or cars exported to Europe.
Why is the deal between Italy and Albania on refugee centers so controversial?
Well it's been criticized by human rights groups, whether that is justified or not, it's difficult for me to judge. But the idea is for roughly 3,000 asylum seekers to Italy to be roughly 3,000 of them every month to be processed in two centers in Italy that are going to be run by and financed by Italy. We'll see how this would work out. They would be coming from primarily what they call "safe countries," and that means that the expectation is, of course, that the majority of them, or the vast majority of them, will have to be repatriated to their respective countries. It's part of the effort by X numbers of European governments to deal with the migration issue that is in very many of the countries the number one domestic policy concern at the moment.
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Migrants walk along a railway line after they have crossed the border from Serbia into Hungary.
Podcast: Survival is success: IRC’s David Miliband responds to “double crisis” in Turkey & Syria
Listen: As the world watches the aftermath of the recent earthquakes in Turkey and Syria, we are confronted with a sobering reality: delivering aid in a region rife with conflict and political instability is an immense challenge. On the GZERO World podcast, Ian Bremmer and David Miliband, President and CEO of the International Rescue Committee, discuss the dire situation in Turkey and Syria —especially in the northwest of Syria, where delivering aid remains an uphill battle.
As if the pre-existing crisis wasn't enough, the earthquakes have worsened the situation, leaving people without medical care as the region deals with a deadly cholera outbreak and freezing winter temperatures. Meanwhile, in Turkey, the earthquake has sparked a debate about corruption and poor governance, with the response likely to become a major issue in the upcoming election. Right now, the most urgent need is ensuring aid and humanitarian assistance continue to reach the people who desperately need it.
Adding to the urgency is the ongoing refugee crisis in the Turkey and throughout Europe. Miliband gives his prescription for the four elements of fair migration and stresses the urgency of "balancing fairness and humanity by fulfilling legal and moral obligations" towards those who have been displaced from their homes.
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A precarious metal boat carrying 40-50 migrants across the Mediterranean from Africa.
Europe plays the blame game over asylum-seekers
“There had been landings but never a tragedy like this,” the mayor of Cutro, a southern Italian town, said after a boat carrying an estimated 200 migrants splintered into pieces on Sunday after hitting rocky terrain.
At least 63 people, including children and at least one newborn, were found dead, while 80 migrants, all adults, survived. Dozens remain missing. Most of the migrants came from Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Iran, having crossed the tumultuous sea from Turkey.
This week’s tragedy comes amid a steep increase since 2022 in the number of asylum-seekers from North Africa and South Asia attempting to cross the Mediterranean in hopes of reaching Europe. Indeed, the Italian coast has emerged as the first point of entry for many would-be migrants fleeing economic hardship, oppression, and political implosion.
What’s causing the uptick, and how are Italy and the European Union responding?
A post-COVID surge. The pandemic years saw a lull in migrants from North Africa crossing the Mediterranean, largely due to border closures. But that all changed in 2022 when a significant number of migrants from Afghanistan, Tunisia, Libya, Eritrea, Iraq, Egypt, and elsewhere resumed attempts to make the perilous journey across the Mediterranean to Europe. Though the influx has not reached crisis levels seen in 2015-2016, when 1.3 million people sought refuge in Europe, roughly 100,000 people crossed the Mediterranean into Italy alone last year. Migration levels have also steadily risen due to an influx of refugees from the eastern flank of Ukraine, as well as the Western Balkan route, which accounted for 45% of all illegal entry attempts into the EU last year.
There has been a “build-up of migration pressure because of people who needed to leave during the pandemic but did not have the access,” says Eric Reidy, a reporter for The New Humanitarian focused on migration. This dynamic is also interacting with specific factors, Reidy notes, including the “Taliban's return to power in Afghanistan and the deteriorating situation for Syrian refugees in Turkey.”
Shipwrecked in Italy. Many refugees leaving Turkey or northeast Libya, two of the main points of embarkation, are opting to take a longer and more perilous journey to Italy to avoid disembarking in Greece, where authorities have been known to push back boats. Meanwhile, prison-like conditions at Greek refugee camps have been a boon for people smugglers promising to help would-be migrants reach the Italian coast.
But the Italian government isn’t keen to absorb the influx. Since coming to power last fall, Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni of the far-right Brothers of Italy Party has sought to position herself as an anti-immigrant firebrand. While Meloni, a nationalist, has surprisingly avoided many of the anticipated confrontations with the European Union, her government has introduced sweeping anti-immigrant legislation and antagonized fellow member states into sharing the load.
“Italy wants more redistribution where they [migrants] can submit their asylum request elsewhere – but this is a non-starter in Europe,” says Luca Barana, a research fellow at Italy's Institute for International Affairs in Rome, pointing to bloc-wide rules requiring member states to process refugees who arrive first in their territorial waters. Rome, however, says the status quo is unsustainable.
Meloni takes on NGOs. In a move broadly condemned by rights groups, the Meloni government has focused on making it harder for humanitarian vessels to rescue migrants at sea by assigning boats to disembarkation ports in northern Italy. Essentially, this means that after conducting a rescue operation, vessels must return to their designated port – even ignoring subsequent distress calls – limiting their time on the sea. Those who ignore the order could have their vessels confiscated by Italian authorities.
Indeed, the anti-NGO push was largely championed by deputy PM and longtime anti-immigrant advocate Matteo Salvini, who has long argued that the presence of charity rescue vessels in the Mediterranean incentivizes migrants to risk the journey.
Unsurprisingly, this policy is causing deep rifts within the EU. Back in November, France and Italy were at loggerheads after Rome refused to accept the Ocean Viking, a ship carrying 230 migrants, claiming – in what France said was an act of bad faith – that Paris had agreed to take in the vessel (it had not). After three weeks of bobbing around on the waters, France ultimately accepted the NGO vessel but suspended an earlier goodwill gesture to take in 3,500 refugees from Italy.
What’s Europe doing about it? In recent years, both Italy and the EU have been trying to direct resources to countries of origin to try and stop the boats. Just last month, Italy delivered another ship to the Libyan coast guard, while Meloni also recently visited Libya to strengthen cooperation arrangements.
However, refugee advocates have long said that Europe’s ability to absorb refugees is simply a matter of political will. Many now point to the absorption of Ukrainian refugees over the past year as a case in point. “Around 4.8 million Ukrainians registered for protection in the EU in the past year,” Reidy says, while comparatively, the number of people crossing the Mediterranean to Europe is in the 120,000-150,000 range. For Reidy, this reinforces the “division of refugees into deserving and undeserving refugees” that pervades Europe.
As part of this effort to augment North African coast guards, intercepted migrants are often put in indefinite detention by Libyan authorities. They are “detained in horrendous conditions where forced labor, torture, extortion, and sexual abuse” are rife, Reidy says. Their only way out is to pay a hefty fine or, for women, to sexually exploit themselves. Otherwise, they risk languishing there indefinitely.
What now? It’s easy to blame the bureaucracy in Brussels for policy stagnation, but that’s not what’s really going on here. Rather, the problem is that 27 member states with competing domestic priorities simply can’t agree on a possible solution. Italy, playing for a domestic audience that backs its tough-on-migration play, remains committed to employing cynical tactics to get the EU to play ball. But as crises mount around the world, would-be-migrants still calculate that risking their lives at sea is safer than staying put.People fleeing Ukraine are seen after crossing the Ukrainian-Polish border.
What awaits Ukrainian refugees?
War coverage often focuses on enigmatic leaders, such as Angela "wir schaffen das" Merkel, a rugged (shirtless) Vladimir Putin or this week’s internet sensation, Volodymyr Zelensky. Articles are dedicated to battlefield tactics, strategy, and even the length and shape of negotiation tables, but less is said of the millions of civilians caught in the crossfires.
In the past week, many have fled from Ukraine to neighboring countries. The media have focused on the European Union welcoming Ukrainians with red carpets, bucking the anti-immigrant tide that’s swept the continent in recent years. But it's worth digging deeper. What exactly has the EU committed to, and where might this all be heading?
Who’s going where? The UN says more than one million people have fled Ukraine since the Russian invasion on Feb. 24. More than half (548,000) have gone to Poland, where tens of thousands are languishing in processing centers on the border. Ukrainian nationals have also sought refuge in EU member states: Hungary (133,000), Slovakia (79,000), and Romania (51,000), as well as in Moldova (98,000), which is not part of the EU and is one of Europe’s poorest countries.
“We have seen tremendous solidarity and hospitality from countries neighboring Ukraine who are receiving refugees right now with open arms and open borders,” says Kathryn Mahoney, spokesperson for the UN High Commission for Refugees. But the number of people fleeing, and the required resources, are rising fast, she warns.
“We are now talking about Europe’s largest refugee crisis this century.”
The EU makes a move. In a significant development this week, the EU announced that it would enact a 20-year-old law for the first time since 2001 to allow Ukrainian refugees to bypass lengthy asylum processes.
The proposal, expected to be backed by the 27-member bloc Thursday, will allow Ukrainians to live and work in the EU for up to one year and entitle them to healthcare, housing, and other social benefits. The proposal states that if the war in Ukraine continues — or if Ukrainians are unable to return safely — their status in the EU can be extended for up to an additional two years.
For anyone who has been paying attention to the jingoist vibe in Europe since the Syrian refugee wave in 2015 — which culminated in Brexit — this policy appears to signal a big tonal shift. In 2015, Poland’s nationalist government refused to take in any Syrian asylum seekers.
But despite the sense of cohesion, enforcement of the plan will be a challenge. This is, in part, because the EU outline is ambiguous — perhaps deliberately so. Who will decide when Ukraine is “safe” enough for women and kids to return home? What constitutes the end of the war?
It is one thing to make these assurances at this early stage of the crisis. It is quite another to absorb millions of people in a matter of weeks or months. How will populist leaders in Hungary and Poland respond when constituents start complaining about Ukrainians taking their jobs? Where are the funds coming from to support the influx of refugees who will undoubtedly put a strain on absorption centers and resources?
Importantly, it is also unclear what mechanism will be put in place for burden sharing throughout the bloc. To date, EU member states have been at loggerheads about a distribution mechanism to manage refugee flows. From a legal perspective, countries of first entry are responsible for processing asylum applications. But Warsaw and Budapest are unlikely to accept this burden longer term without assurances that member states will share the load.
Mahoney, for one, is hopeful that cooperation and assistance will prevail long term. “We trust this show of solidarity will continue,” she says. But Mahoney also knows it will be an uphill battle, and to that end, she says, the UNHCR can help.
“[We stand] ready to support efforts by governments and other stakeholders to find solutions and provide humanitarian assistance wherever necessary and possible.”
Taliban 2.0: Afghanistan on the Brink (US AWOL)
Few people know more about the Taliban than journalist and author Ahmed Rashid, who wrote the book on the group — literally.
In the months after 9/11, his critically acclaimed 2000 study Taliban: Militant Islam, Oil & Fundamentalism in Central Asia became a go-to reference as the US geared up to invade Afghanistan and knock the militant group from power.
Now, twenty years later, with the US out of Afghanistan and the Taliban back in charge, Ian Bremmer sat down with Rashid to learn more about the Taliban today in a GZERO World interview.
How much has the group changed since the days of soccer-stadium executions, television bans, and blowing up world heritage sites? How should the rest of the world deal with them?
Don’t believe the “Taliban 2.0” hype. Rashid says that despite Taliban pledges to moderate their treatment of women, minority groups, and the press, hardliners in the movement are winning out right now. And there’s little chance of the Taliban stamping out other terrorist groups who helped them fight the Americans all these years.
But the deepening humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan means the West has to engage somehow. “It’s important that the West differentiate between recognition, which should not be on the cards for the time being,” he says ”and preventing millions of Afghans from starving to death.” For Rashid that means global donors should step up with money for humanitarian and food relief measures administered through the UN.
If not, a huge new refugee crisis could be brewing. And the timing couldn’t be worse. Afghanistan’s neighbors like Pakistan and Iran are ill-equipped to handle fresh migrant flows, Rashid says, and more distant destinations like the EU are politically hostile to refugees these days.
The US isn’t only gone, it’s AWOL. Amid all of this, Rashid warns, the US doesn’t seem to have a strategy.
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The Taliban may crack down harder if Afghan people protest, warns journalist Ahmed Rashid
Will the Taliban be able to maintain control over the entire country of Afghanistan if the ongoing hunger and economic crisis worsens?
Civil disobedience is likely to expand from women's protests to widespread unrest, said journalist Ahmed Rashid, especially if humanitarian aid only reaches the hands of Taliban loyalists and the country’s urban elites.
“It's going to be much more easy for the opposition to organize unrest in the cities demanding food and services," said Rashid, author of Taliban: Militant Islam, Oil & Fundamentalism in Central Asia.
"The Taliban are going to use probably harsher and harsher methods to deal with that, and that, of course, will create its own snowballing crisis.”
Rashid spoke during an interview with Ian Bremmer for GZERO World.
Watch the GZERO World episode: Taliban 2.0: Afghanistan on the Brink (US AWOL)
Europe in "shock & disbelief" over US withdrawal from Afghanistan
Carl Bildt, former Prime Minister and Foreign Minister of Sweden, shares his perspective from Europe:
What has been the European reaction to what's happening in Afghanistan?
Well, I think shock and disbelief is the appropriate expression for it. Shock and disbelief over the Americans just cutting out running, although you might argue that we should have seen it coming. And then, of course, a lot of long-term questions that will play out over time. Can the United States be relied upon, right or wrong? That question is going to linger for quite some time.
Are the EU nations prepared to accept Afghan refugees?
Well, the priority at the moment must of course be those that have worked for our forces, our development efforts, our embassies, and to get them out. As otherwise, Europe already has a substantial number, as a matter-of-fact Afghans are the number one nation when it comes to regular migration. Last year our figures for 2020 was 34,000 coming in. There are nearly 150,000 of them in Germany, there are 30,000 in Sweden. This is to compare with single digit thousand numbers in the US. So there will be an enormous effort to try to help displaced refugees in the region, and then the somewhat more managed global handling of the refugee issue will be called for.
Biden's speech on Afghanistan ignores serious failures; Afghan refugee crisis
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on President Biden's Afghanistan speech, the Afghan refugee crisis that will follow the Taliban takeover, and booster shots in the US.
What did you think of President Biden's speech on the Afghan withdrawal?
Two things. One, I thought he made a very compelling case for why the United States needed to leave when we did. The reduction in US troops that already happened under Trump, the strengthening of the Taliban, the difficulty of any expansion, I get all of that, but it was, listening to it as if the last 72 hours hadn't happened. He said that, "this is on me, the buck stops with me," but didn't talk really about any of the serious failures and how they could have occurred on the ground in Afghanistan. And there's a lot to answer for there. So I certainly don't give high marks to the speech, if I'm being honest with you. I'm doing my best.
Will the Taliban takeover lead to a refugee crisis?
Yes, it will. We've got some two and a half million Afghan refugees right now, though millions more returned after the Taliban were removed from Afghanistan, from power. Certainly, right now you're seeing I think 30,000 to 50,000 refugees a day, but that is only going to extend as the Taliban start strengthening their grip on power across the country. It's mostly going to be in the region. So it's Pakistan, and it's Iran for the Hazaras, for example. But over time, towards Europe, and that means Turkey, is the country that's going to have a lot of leverage with the Europeans on whether they decide to maintain those refugee flows or try to keep the borders open, let them go into Europe.
With only about 50% of Americans fully vaccinated will booster shots complicate getting the unvaccinated, vaccinated?
Yeah, I think that's probably true because if it's only eight months, a lot of people that are unvaccinated are saying, "Well, one more reason to be skeptical. Doesn't really work. They told me it'd be fine." Again, the science is new, and we're learning about this disease more and more every day. You only have data on how well the vaccines work over time as time passes, because it's the first time anyone's been vaccinated with this stuff. The bigger challenge I see it is that Americans are going to be vaccinating the entire population with boosters before much of the world has gotten a single shot, and that puts the US directly at odds with those governments and with the World Health Organization. This wouldn't be so hard for an America First presidency, but it's a lot harder for Biden who says that we're multilateral and want to work with everybody else.
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