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A clinic support staff takes blood sample from a child at a clinic operated by Doctors without Borders in Bagega village in northeastern state of Zamfara August 14, 2013. Picture taken August 14, 2013.
HARD NUMBERS: Nigerian docs strike, UN closes aid centers in Afghanistan, Russia cuts rates, Ebola emerges again in Congo.
8: The UN office in Afghanistan has closed eight aid centers set up to support Afghan refugees returning to the country, because the Taliban government is preventing female UN staff from entering the facilities. Afghanistan is suffering a refugee crisis as Pakistan and Iran have begun deporting hundreds of thousands of undocumented Afghan migrants.
17: Russia’s central bank cut interest rates by a single point, but they are still at a staggering 17%. The central bank is in a tight spot: cautiously trying to prop up flagging economic growth even as inflation remains sky high due to Ukraine-related sanctions and military spending.
32: The WHO says it is still confident that an ebola outbreak in Congo can be contained, but only if prompt action is taken. The country has recently registered 32 suspected cases and 16 deaths. It is the country’s 16th outbreak of the deadly disease.
What (or who) will replace USAID?
As Washington pulls back from its decades-long role as the world’s leading aid donor, the humanitarian system is facing what David Miliband calls a “very big shock.” On GZERO World, the International Rescue Committee president and CEO tells Ian Bremmer that the US has historically been the anchor of the global aid system, contributing nearly $4 out of every $10 aid dollar. But amid the cancellation of USAID and a dramatic pullback in foreign funding, vital programs are now closing and the impacts are being felt all over the world.
Who–or what–could step in to fill the gap? Miliband says China isn’t interested in large-scale humanitarian aid, focused instead on economic development though initiatives like Belt and Road. Europe, meanwhile, is stretched thin by war in Ukraine and pandemic debt. The Gulf States and Japan are debating their role, but the scale of US funding remains unmatched. The result, Miliband argues, is “sucking sound” of money leaving the system, leaving the world’s poorest to pay the price.
“The US was the anchor of the global aid system,” Miliband explains, “When you pull an anchor in choppy waters, the boat rocks and the passengers get seasick. That’s what’s happening at the moment.”
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don't miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔). GZERO World with Ian Bremmer airs on US public television weekly - check local listings.
The global refugee crisis is at breaking point
The global refugee population is at historic highs, driven by war in Ukraine, violence in Sudan, state collapse in Venezuela, Taliban rule in Afghanistan, and a worsening humanitarian disaster in Gaza. On GZERO World, David Miliband, president & CEO of the International Rescue Committee joins Ian Bremmer to discuss the refugee crisis, the rise of forcibly displaced people around the world, and the crumbling humanitarian aid system amid the cancellation of USAID. What happens when the poorest countries are left to solve the hardest problems? And who–if anyone–is stepping up to help?
Miliband says that in 20 countries in crisis, there are more than 275 million people in humanitarian need, people that depend on international aid and organizations like the IRC to survive. There have been some recent positive developments—hundreds of thousands of refugees returning to Syria after the fall of the Assad regime, the potential for progress in the Eastern DRC, new technologies improving aid delivery. Still, Miliband says the world is facing a humanitarian crisis of historic proportions and unless the international community steps up, tens of millions will suffer.
“We face a new abnormal. 10 years ago, there were 50 to 60 million internally displaced people and refugees. Now, there's 120 million,” Miliband says, “The scale of impunity, the loss of international engagement is epic.”
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube.Don't miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔). GZERO World with Ian Bremmer airs on US public television weekly - check local listings.
The broken system behind the refugee crisis
Who bears the cost of the world’s refugees? As wars, state collapse, and humanitarian crises from Ukraine to Sudan to Gaza drive millions from their homes, the number of forcibly displaced people around the world is at record highs. On Ian Explains, Ian Bremmer breaks down the worsening global humanitarian crisis, the broken aid system, and where refugees actually go.
Contrary to widespread opinion in wealthier countries, the vast majority are hosted by low and middle income nations. Millions of forcibly displaced people never cross an international border at all. That imbalance isn’t just unfair—it’s dangerous. What happens when the poorest countries are left to solve the hardest problems?
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don't miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔). GZERO World with Ian Bremmer airs on US public television weekly - check local listings.
Is an EU-China trade war brewing?
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden and co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations, shares his perspective on European politics from Vienna, Austria
Is there a risk of a full-scale trade war between the European Union and China?
Hopefully not. But it was a decision, somewhat controversial, the other day by the EU to impose tariffs, not too high but still substantial, on electric vehicles coming from China. The US, of course, has done something similar but much higher tariffs and without much of a theoretical justification. I mean, the EU tried to ground its different decisions in analysis of the subsidies generated or given to the different Chinese car manufacturers. China will retaliate in one way or the other. But talks are going on and there's no interest in a trade war either from the EU side or from the Chinese side. And we should not forget, by the way, that for the moment, there are 100 times more cars sold by European companies in China than Chinese vehicles or cars exported to Europe.
Why is the deal between Italy and Albania on refugee centers so controversial?
Well it's been criticized by human rights groups, whether that is justified or not, it's difficult for me to judge. But the idea is for roughly 3,000 asylum seekers to Italy to be roughly 3,000 of them every month to be processed in two centers in Italy that are going to be run by and financed by Italy. We'll see how this would work out. They would be coming from primarily what they call "safe countries," and that means that the expectation is, of course, that the majority of them, or the vast majority of them, will have to be repatriated to their respective countries. It's part of the effort by X numbers of European governments to deal with the migration issue that is in very many of the countries the number one domestic policy concern at the moment.
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Migrants walk along a railway line after they have crossed the border from Serbia into Hungary.
Podcast: Survival is success: IRC’s David Miliband responds to “double crisis” in Turkey & Syria
Listen: As the world watches the aftermath of the recent earthquakes in Turkey and Syria, we are confronted with a sobering reality: delivering aid in a region rife with conflict and political instability is an immense challenge. On the GZERO World podcast, Ian Bremmer and David Miliband, President and CEO of the International Rescue Committee, discuss the dire situation in Turkey and Syria —especially in the northwest of Syria, where delivering aid remains an uphill battle.
As if the pre-existing crisis wasn't enough, the earthquakes have worsened the situation, leaving people without medical care as the region deals with a deadly cholera outbreak and freezing winter temperatures. Meanwhile, in Turkey, the earthquake has sparked a debate about corruption and poor governance, with the response likely to become a major issue in the upcoming election. Right now, the most urgent need is ensuring aid and humanitarian assistance continue to reach the people who desperately need it.
Adding to the urgency is the ongoing refugee crisis in the Turkey and throughout Europe. Miliband gives his prescription for the four elements of fair migration and stresses the urgency of "balancing fairness and humanity by fulfilling legal and moral obligations" towards those who have been displaced from their homes.
Subscribe to the GZERO World Podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, or your preferred podcast platform, to receive new episodes as soon as they're published.- Hard Numbers: Turkey/Syria quake death toll, Modi ally’s biz empire crumbles, West Bank violence, AMLO believes in elves ›
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A precarious metal boat carrying 40-50 migrants across the Mediterranean from Africa.
Europe plays the blame game over asylum-seekers
“There had been landings but never a tragedy like this,” the mayor of Cutro, a southern Italian town, said after a boat carrying an estimated 200 migrants splintered into pieces on Sunday after hitting rocky terrain.
At least 63 people, including children and at least one newborn, were found dead, while 80 migrants, all adults, survived. Dozens remain missing. Most of the migrants came from Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Iran, having crossed the tumultuous sea from Turkey.
This week’s tragedy comes amid a steep increase since 2022 in the number of asylum-seekers from North Africa and South Asia attempting to cross the Mediterranean in hopes of reaching Europe. Indeed, the Italian coast has emerged as the first point of entry for many would-be migrants fleeing economic hardship, oppression, and political implosion.
What’s causing the uptick, and how are Italy and the European Union responding?
A post-COVID surge. The pandemic years saw a lull in migrants from North Africa crossing the Mediterranean, largely due to border closures. But that all changed in 2022 when a significant number of migrants from Afghanistan, Tunisia, Libya, Eritrea, Iraq, Egypt, and elsewhere resumed attempts to make the perilous journey across the Mediterranean to Europe. Though the influx has not reached crisis levels seen in 2015-2016, when 1.3 million people sought refuge in Europe, roughly 100,000 people crossed the Mediterranean into Italy alone last year. Migration levels have also steadily risen due to an influx of refugees from the eastern flank of Ukraine, as well as the Western Balkan route, which accounted for 45% of all illegal entry attempts into the EU last year.
There has been a “build-up of migration pressure because of people who needed to leave during the pandemic but did not have the access,” says Eric Reidy, a reporter for The New Humanitarian focused on migration. This dynamic is also interacting with specific factors, Reidy notes, including the “Taliban's return to power in Afghanistan and the deteriorating situation for Syrian refugees in Turkey.”
Shipwrecked in Italy. Many refugees leaving Turkey or northeast Libya, two of the main points of embarkation, are opting to take a longer and more perilous journey to Italy to avoid disembarking in Greece, where authorities have been known to push back boats. Meanwhile, prison-like conditions at Greek refugee camps have been a boon for people smugglers promising to help would-be migrants reach the Italian coast.
But the Italian government isn’t keen to absorb the influx. Since coming to power last fall, Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni of the far-right Brothers of Italy Party has sought to position herself as an anti-immigrant firebrand. While Meloni, a nationalist, has surprisingly avoided many of the anticipated confrontations with the European Union, her government has introduced sweeping anti-immigrant legislation and antagonized fellow member states into sharing the load.
“Italy wants more redistribution where they [migrants] can submit their asylum request elsewhere – but this is a non-starter in Europe,” says Luca Barana, a research fellow at Italy's Institute for International Affairs in Rome, pointing to bloc-wide rules requiring member states to process refugees who arrive first in their territorial waters. Rome, however, says the status quo is unsustainable.
Meloni takes on NGOs. In a move broadly condemned by rights groups, the Meloni government has focused on making it harder for humanitarian vessels to rescue migrants at sea by assigning boats to disembarkation ports in northern Italy. Essentially, this means that after conducting a rescue operation, vessels must return to their designated port – even ignoring subsequent distress calls – limiting their time on the sea. Those who ignore the order could have their vessels confiscated by Italian authorities.
Indeed, the anti-NGO push was largely championed by deputy PM and longtime anti-immigrant advocate Matteo Salvini, who has long argued that the presence of charity rescue vessels in the Mediterranean incentivizes migrants to risk the journey.
Unsurprisingly, this policy is causing deep rifts within the EU. Back in November, France and Italy were at loggerheads after Rome refused to accept the Ocean Viking, a ship carrying 230 migrants, claiming – in what France said was an act of bad faith – that Paris had agreed to take in the vessel (it had not). After three weeks of bobbing around on the waters, France ultimately accepted the NGO vessel but suspended an earlier goodwill gesture to take in 3,500 refugees from Italy.
What’s Europe doing about it? In recent years, both Italy and the EU have been trying to direct resources to countries of origin to try and stop the boats. Just last month, Italy delivered another ship to the Libyan coast guard, while Meloni also recently visited Libya to strengthen cooperation arrangements.
However, refugee advocates have long said that Europe’s ability to absorb refugees is simply a matter of political will. Many now point to the absorption of Ukrainian refugees over the past year as a case in point. “Around 4.8 million Ukrainians registered for protection in the EU in the past year,” Reidy says, while comparatively, the number of people crossing the Mediterranean to Europe is in the 120,000-150,000 range. For Reidy, this reinforces the “division of refugees into deserving and undeserving refugees” that pervades Europe.
As part of this effort to augment North African coast guards, intercepted migrants are often put in indefinite detention by Libyan authorities. They are “detained in horrendous conditions where forced labor, torture, extortion, and sexual abuse” are rife, Reidy says. Their only way out is to pay a hefty fine or, for women, to sexually exploit themselves. Otherwise, they risk languishing there indefinitely.
What now? It’s easy to blame the bureaucracy in Brussels for policy stagnation, but that’s not what’s really going on here. Rather, the problem is that 27 member states with competing domestic priorities simply can’t agree on a possible solution. Italy, playing for a domestic audience that backs its tough-on-migration play, remains committed to employing cynical tactics to get the EU to play ball. But as crises mount around the world, would-be-migrants still calculate that risking their lives at sea is safer than staying put.People fleeing Ukraine are seen after crossing the Ukrainian-Polish border.
What awaits Ukrainian refugees?
War coverage often focuses on enigmatic leaders, such as Angela "wir schaffen das" Merkel, a rugged (shirtless) Vladimir Putin or this week’s internet sensation, Volodymyr Zelensky. Articles are dedicated to battlefield tactics, strategy, and even the length and shape of negotiation tables, but less is said of the millions of civilians caught in the crossfires.
In the past week, many have fled from Ukraine to neighboring countries. The media have focused on the European Union welcoming Ukrainians with red carpets, bucking the anti-immigrant tide that’s swept the continent in recent years. But it's worth digging deeper. What exactly has the EU committed to, and where might this all be heading?
Who’s going where? The UN says more than one million people have fled Ukraine since the Russian invasion on Feb. 24. More than half (548,000) have gone to Poland, where tens of thousands are languishing in processing centers on the border. Ukrainian nationals have also sought refuge in EU member states: Hungary (133,000), Slovakia (79,000), and Romania (51,000), as well as in Moldova (98,000), which is not part of the EU and is one of Europe’s poorest countries.
“We have seen tremendous solidarity and hospitality from countries neighboring Ukraine who are receiving refugees right now with open arms and open borders,” says Kathryn Mahoney, spokesperson for the UN High Commission for Refugees. But the number of people fleeing, and the required resources, are rising fast, she warns.
“We are now talking about Europe’s largest refugee crisis this century.”
The EU makes a move. In a significant development this week, the EU announced that it would enact a 20-year-old law for the first time since 2001 to allow Ukrainian refugees to bypass lengthy asylum processes.
The proposal, expected to be backed by the 27-member bloc Thursday, will allow Ukrainians to live and work in the EU for up to one year and entitle them to healthcare, housing, and other social benefits. The proposal states that if the war in Ukraine continues — or if Ukrainians are unable to return safely — their status in the EU can be extended for up to an additional two years.
For anyone who has been paying attention to the jingoist vibe in Europe since the Syrian refugee wave in 2015 — which culminated in Brexit — this policy appears to signal a big tonal shift. In 2015, Poland’s nationalist government refused to take in any Syrian asylum seekers.
But despite the sense of cohesion, enforcement of the plan will be a challenge. This is, in part, because the EU outline is ambiguous — perhaps deliberately so. Who will decide when Ukraine is “safe” enough for women and kids to return home? What constitutes the end of the war?
It is one thing to make these assurances at this early stage of the crisis. It is quite another to absorb millions of people in a matter of weeks or months. How will populist leaders in Hungary and Poland respond when constituents start complaining about Ukrainians taking their jobs? Where are the funds coming from to support the influx of refugees who will undoubtedly put a strain on absorption centers and resources?
Importantly, it is also unclear what mechanism will be put in place for burden sharing throughout the bloc. To date, EU member states have been at loggerheads about a distribution mechanism to manage refugee flows. From a legal perspective, countries of first entry are responsible for processing asylum applications. But Warsaw and Budapest are unlikely to accept this burden longer term without assurances that member states will share the load.
Mahoney, for one, is hopeful that cooperation and assistance will prevail long term. “We trust this show of solidarity will continue,” she says. But Mahoney also knows it will be an uphill battle, and to that end, she says, the UNHCR can help.
“[We stand] ready to support efforts by governments and other stakeholders to find solutions and provide humanitarian assistance wherever necessary and possible.”