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Iran-Israel crisis: Dangers still high with little room for diplomacy
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
Does the Iran-Israel crisis offer a unique opportunity for diplomacy?
I don't think so. They certainly give an opportunity for a bunch of countries to reengage with Israel. We're seeing that with Jordan, with Saudi Arabia, and to show the Iranians that they are still considered to be the big concern as an enemy in the region, a disrupter. But that's very different from saying we're going to see a breakthrough in relations. You're not resetting deterrence. Iran is going to continue to lead the axis of resistance and provide weapons and intelligence and engage in strikes against targets across the region. Israel will still hit Iranians that are operating there. So going forward, I think the dangers are still pretty high.
Is Germany's Scholz meeting with Xi in Beijing indicating a shift in Europe-China trade tensions?
Not really. Here, the fact that Scholz has a large number of German CEOs in tow means that, yes, he's concerned that the Chinese are providing support to Russia, maybe even increasingly dual-use military support to Russia in the war in Ukraine. He's concerned about Chinese industrial policy that's undermining, the interests of Americans and Europeans economically. But ultimately he is very reliant on investment and trade with China, and he's going to continue to support that. He is not fully aligned with his government on this issue, not his advisors, not his foreign minister, and certainly not the other parties in the coalition. But it is Scholz's perspective. And as a consequence, it is going to be a pretty friendly trip.
Why is Sudan's year-long conflict gone largely unnoticed?
Well, we write about it a fair amount, but I mean, the fact that it is in a part of the world that doesn't have economic implications. So you blow up Ukraine, and Russia is in a fight, and energy prices and food and fertilizer prices go up. Major conflict in Sudan. A lot of people suffer, a lot of people die, but the rest of the world has no impact economically. Also, most of the refugees, people fleeing, fleeing to neighboring African countries, they're not coming over to Mexico, the United States or to Poland and to Germany. And that just doesn't lead to a lot of attention. Final point is that there aren't a lot of journalists on the ground from the West in Sudan. And so not a lot of people are actually covering this. So for all of those reasons, not getting a lot of attention, but we'll keep talking about it.
Macron's China visit hasn't moved Xi on Ukraine
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden, shares his perspective on European politics from Tabiano Castello, Italy.
What's the fallout from President Macron's visit to China?
That remains to be seen. There is still no sign, really, of him managing to move Xi Jinping on the issue of Russia's aggression against Ukraine. President Xi has not yet made that telephone call to President Zelensky that he said he was going to do. He says he's going to do it at some point in time. But whether some point in time is tomorrow or one year from now is left open, so remains to be seen.
What are the lessons of the Good Friday Agreement 25 years ago?
Well, President Biden now goes to Belfast to be part of the celebrations for the Good Friday Agreement. That's good. I think what we can learn from that is both to understand that conflicts of these sorts have very deep historical roots, and secondly, that it takes time to overcome. There is no violence in Northern Ireland. Brexit has created new problems, but there are still sectarian tensions. But peace agreements of this sort, they should be celebrated, but they require maintenance work over time as well in order to really work.
- 25 years later, is Brexit unraveling Northern Ireland’s delicate peace? ›
- Northern Ireland deal: an improvement, but "Brexit is never over" for UK, says David Miliband ›
- EU-China "reset" in limbo ›
- What We’re Watching: A big day for Macron, Taiwan’s friend list, Russia droning on ›
- Xi’s “peace” plan for Ukraine: China “wins” ›
- Backlash from Macron's China visit - GZERO Media ›
A supporter of Pakistan's former PM Imran Khan in Karachi gestures following the shooting incident on his long march in Wazirabad.
What We're Watching: Pakistan’s former PM shot, Olaf goes to Beijing
Imran Khan survives assassination attempt
Pakistan’s former PM Imran Khan — aka “Kaptaan” for his cricket accolades and lead-from-the-front style of populist politics — survived an assassination attempt on Thursday during his “Long March” to Islamabad. Khan was shot in the leg as his truck-driven stage rolled through the central Pakistani city of Wazirabad, and he was rushed to a hospital in Lahore, where he was eventually declared stable. Eight other members of his entourage were also injured, and one party worker was killed. At least one alleged gunman was challenged and apprehended by a brave bystander. “He was misleading people and I couldn’t take it,” the suspect said in a leaked confession to police. “I tried to kill only him.” Meanwhile, Khan’s party accused PM Shehbaz Sharif's government of plotting the attack and threatened protests nationwide if they weren’t removed from power. As if on cue, widespread protests kicked off against military and government officials. Khan, who was removed from office last April, has been demanding snap elections, but so far he’s been ignored. Despite his party sweeping by-elections, mass rallies, and his summoning of unprecedented support against the military, the political establishment hasn’t blinked. Will this attack force their hand?
Germany & EU at odds over China
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz made on Friday a very controversial trip to Beijing, as the first major European leader to visit China since Russia invaded Ukraine. It was a swift one – Scholz’s team didn’t even spend the night in Beijing due to China's zero-COVID policy. For the leader of the EU's largest economy, the trip is all about biz, which explains why he was accompanied by top German CEOs. But for the rest of Europe, going to Beijing right after Xi Jinping's coronation at the 20th Congress of China's ruling Communist Party sends the wrong political message right when Brussels wants to reduce its economic and trade dependence on China — like it's done with Russian fossil fuels over Ukraine. What's more, the two junior partners in Scholz's three-way coalition government — the left-wing Greens and the centrist FDP — are also uneasy about the trip. In fact, six ministers blasted the chancellor for recently approving a deal for Chinese shipping giant Cosco to acquire 25% of Hamburg's port container terminal. Scholz is following the playbook of his former boss, Angela Merkel, on keeping warm ties with China because he wants German businesses to make big bucks, but perhaps he didn't read the room on the optics and timing of the trip.
Israel's highly charged election; EU-China deal at risk over sanctions
Ian Bremmer discusses Israel's election, the EU-China tensions over sanctions, and Putin's jab on this edition of World In 60 Seconds.
Will Israel's fourth election in two years finally provide the country stability?
Well, I mean, to be fair, the country is actually stable. Seven million people rolling out vaccines faster than any other country around the world. I mean, you know, life is relatively normal unless you're in the occupied territories as a Palestinian. But the politics are indeed problematic. It is very close, indeed. It is conceivable that Netanyahu will be able, by the skin of his teeth, to put together a very, very right-wing coalition, that could threaten democracy. It's also conceivable that no one can put together a coalition, it depends on small parties, in which case you could have a fifth election in two years. Yes, that could easily happen. There you go.
What will come from new EU and US sanctions on China?
Well, the Europeans are saying that unless the Chinese actually pull back on the sanctions against European MEPs, which they did in response to the US, the EU, the UK, and Canada, all putting sanctions on Chinese officials in response to treatment of the Uighurs - they really didn't like that - that the EU-China investment deal wouldn't get ratified. Macron really wants this to get done. Merkel really wants this to get done. There is some uncertainty, of course, in Germany, depending on what happens after Merkel and the government. On balance, I would argue that this investment relationship still ends up happening and the US and the EU have very different perspectives on China, but still overall a hardening of positions towards each other across the board, on the western side and on the Chinese side.
Finally, Putin is finally getting vaccinated. What took so long?
It is a little surprising. And he did not get vaccinated on television. We have to take his word for it. His daughter got vaccinated with Sputnik V very early. Maybe he wanted to make sure she didn't grow a second head or anything. I don't know. Look, I'm a little surprised because, I mean, Sputnik V has been peer reviewed. It's a worthwhile vaccine. It's being exported and it's quite effective. So, I mean, I would have thought that Putin would want to show some patriotism. But, you know, maybe he's skittish about needles. I literally, I find it kind of strange. And with Russia, at the end of the day, you'll never find out, you don't want to be in a position to.
Wolfgang Ischinger on China: “The number one long-term challenge”
In his decades of diplomatic service, Wolfgang Ischinger has handled many global threats and challenges and studied the evolving relationship between Europe and the United States, from the deep commitments of multilateralism following WWII to President Trump calling the EU a "foe" in recent years. Now, as President-elect Joe Biden is set to take the oath of office in the US, Ischinger reflects on the other elephant in the room, China, and how Europe and America's approach to the world's second biggest economy may differ.