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Can Bibi’s career survive the Israel-Hamas war?
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has faced growing calls to resign since the Oct. 7 attacks by Hamas. In recent days, protesters have gathered outside his home. The war in Gaza isn’t going well. Hamas is far from being destroyed, and roughly 130 hostages remain in Gaza – prompting their family members to storm parliament in outrage. Meanwhile, there are questions as to whether Bibi’s governing coalition will fall apart.
It often seems as though the 74-year-old leader is a breath away from being pushed out of office. But is this war really the last chapter in the chaotic career of Israel’s longest-tenured prime minister?
“After October 7th, everybody was saying, ‘I think he's finished. He's done.’ And he's still there. I think it's probably a matter of time, but it's already been several months,” says Mairav Zonszein, a senior Israel-Palestine analyst for the International Crisis Group who’s based in Israel, adding that it’s “hard to see what the specific tipping point will be that will bring him down.”
Even before Hamas attacked Israel on Oct. 7, Netanyahu’s political career was on thin ice as he contended with a corruption trial and mass protests over his government’s judicial overhaul plan. The Israeli leader has since faced blame for security failures surrounding the Hamas attack, on top of fierce criticism over the hostage situation and international criticism over the war in Gaza.
But Bibi has said he is opposed to a permanent cease-fire, even if it means bringing the hostages home – contending that it would only be a matter of time before Hamas attacked again. The current negotiations are reportedly for a limited cease-fire.
It’s complicated. Recent polling paints a complex picture in terms of how Israelis feel about the war – they’re angry at the people charged with protecting them – the ones running the war – but strongly support the fight against Hamas.
One recent poll from Tel Aviv University’s Peace Index showed most Israelis (53%) think the government has “no clear goals” in the war, but it also found that a large majority of the Jewish public think the IDF uses adequate or too little force in Gaza and 88% believe the extent of Palestinian casualties is justified – even as the international community increasingly criticizes Israel over the rising death toll. But the poll also found the Jewish public is relatively split on whether the government should prioritize eliminating Hamas at all costs (50%) or getting the hostages returned in any way possible (48%).
Still, one thing is clear: The Israeli public overwhelmingly disapproves of Netanyahu, with only 15% wanting him to stay in power after the war, according to a recent poll by the Israel Democracy Institute. And many seem to believe that Bibi views the war with Hamas as a political lifeline. A recent Channel 13 survey found 53% of Israelis believe Netanyahu’s wartime decisions are primarily motivated by personal interest.
“There’s a weird kind of paradox or conflict between the support that the war effort has – the legitimacy and consensus around wanting to remove Hamas – but then there's also consensus that Netanyahu has to go. Nobody trusts him,” says Zonszein, adding, “Everybody thinks that he's just dragging this out because it keeps him in power.”
Wartime elections? It’s becoming increasingly clear that Netanyahu’s goal of eliminating Hamas is “not feasible,” says Zonszein, and members of Bibi’s war cabinet have begun to openly challenge him on this.
Gadi Eisenkot, a war cabinet minister and former chief of staff of the IDF, recently said that discussions of destroying Hamas amount to “tall tales.” Eisenkot, whose son was killed in Gaza in December, said that elections should be held in the coming months.
Dozens of ex-top national security officials on Friday sent a letter to Israel’s president and speaker of parliament that pushed for elections and Netanyahu’s removal – referring to him as an “existential” threat to Israel.
In the end, rising public anger over the lack of movement on bringing the hostages home could be what brings Bibi down. Though it would be a “crazy scenario,” says Zonszein, for Israelis to go to the polls amid what is “probably the most decisive war Israel's had since its founding,” if a hostage deal isn’t reached in soon, “the pressure to have an election will increase.”
But a lot has to happen for elections to occur, and if there is a deal that brings the hostages home, it’s difficult to say what that would mean for Netanyahu’s political future.
“It seems like the only clear victory that he can get at this point is getting all the hostages back,” says Zonszein, but if this involves stopping the war and releasing Palestinian prisoners, it could trigger far-right members of his coalition to leave – putting Bibi in a precarious position.
But getting hostages released “would definitely be a huge relief and a huge win for Israel,” Zonszein adds, which has been “fighting with really no results so far.”
Gunned Down, Gunned Up, Again
As news broke last night of the horrific mass shooting in Lewiston, Maine, where at least 18 people have been killed, I happened to be talking about guns with an old friend from Israel.
As the Israel-Hamas war rages on, my friend has joined a local security detail where he and other volunteers patrol their local streets at night. Hundreds of these new security units – they are essentially militias – are springing up as Israelis of all ages (my friend is in his early 60s) rush to protect their country. You might think this civic volunteerism is a positive sign, but my friend, a former politician, had a strikingly different view.
“I’m not sure if this is a sign of strength or a sign of weakness in our country,” he said. “After all, it should be the job of police and the government to keep people safe, but no one trusts the government to do that anymore, so they are doing it themselves.” It is an interesting question: Is gun ownership a metric of trust in government?
A recent poll from the Israel Democracy Institute shows that only 20% of Israelis and 7.5% of Arab Israelis trust the Netanyahu government. That lack of trust, intensified by the colossal Oct. 7 security failure, has led to a spike in militias and in Israelis buying guns.
You might think Israel has lax gun laws given that it has mandatory military service for most people, but actually, there are rigorous protections. There is no US-style Second Amendment right, and permits and checks are required. Still, it’s not hard to get a gun permit, and even before the Oct. 7 attack, the Netanyahu government was seeking to loosen the rules. Now that looks to be accelerating.
The instinctive rush to bear arms in the wake of an attack is understandable, but it can have long-term consequences, as the US knows all too well. The idea after the American Revolution was that armed citizens could save the country from tyranny. Yet, gun-toting Americans pose other grave dangers: The Maine tragedy was the 565th mass shooting in the US this year, according to the Gun Violence Archive. The renewed debate over gun control will likely, as ever, stall. Why? Lack of trust in government is a key factor.
A recent Pew Research study showed that less than 20% of Americans trust the US government, among the lowest numbers seen since polling began in 1958.
The same lack of trust is true in the UK and increasingly so in Canada as well, which makes combatting big issues, like gun violence or, say, a pandemic, harder to coordinate.
Just this week in Canada, the official opposition, which is polling way ahead of Trudeau’s government, put forward an anti-vaccine mandate bill to stop future governments from forcing federal workers and travelers to take a vaccine. Even though the measure was defeated, it is a sign that a huge part of the country does not trust the government to protect it from disease. What will it mean for a future pandemic?
Trust is something any government needs to build. That requires transparency, effective policies, and, at a bare minimum, doing its job to protect citizens’ rights and their security. If you lose those, garnering support for any other policy – health, climate, education – becomes a helluva lot harder. An armed-up, amped-up, distrustful population doesn’t make for social cohesion.
It’s also a sign of the dangers of short-term, impulsive political thinking, the hallmark of so many crises. One result, as my friend wisely pointed out, is not realizing that sometimes overt signs of strength – an armed citizenry, for example – can actually be signs of weakness. It is the very point facing Israel’s entire strategy in Gaza.
Understandably stung by the Oct. 7 terror attack, Benjamin Netanyahu has launched a massive counterattack to wipe out Hamas, but that has come with the collective punishing of the people of Gaza and, soon, a ground offensive. What is his long-term strategic goal for a post-Hamas Gaza? Who will govern it? How can the hostages be rescued? All of these questions remain dangerously unclear.
Israel’s prime minister is clearly trying to reestablish the doctrine of deterrence – showing the region that attacking the Jewish state will lead to massive consequences – but then what? Where does that lead in terms of a two-state solution and some kind of peace? No one in Israel, let alone outside of it, trusts Netanyahu to get there anymore.
Over-indexing on deterrence today can mean under-indexing on security tomorrow.
That is one lesson from Israel for the US and Canada. Distrust in government makes societies most vulnerable not only to potential threats but to the urgent need to respond effectively to them. We all just saw this over the past few weeks in the US, where distrust among Republicans led to chaos in electing a House Speaker, jeopardizing everything from the functioning of the government to aid to Ukraine.
The hunt for solutions to dangerous threats keeps getting harder, especially when you don’t trust the hunter.Biden on Hamas attacks: “This was an act of sheer evil”
US President Joe Biden on Tuesday did not mince his words when he gave his second address about the Hamas terror attacks in Israel.
“The brutality of Hamas’ bloodthirstiness brings to mind the worst rampages of ISIS,” he said, adding that he told Israel’s PM Benjamin Netanyahu that “if the United States experienced what Israel is experiencing, our response would be swift, decisive, and overwhelming.”
The aim was to show Israel’s enemies that there is little daylight between the US and Israel, and, crucially, to warn those who might be seeking to join the conflict – like Iran and Hezbollah in Lebanon – not to dare. This comes after a barrage of rockets was fired at Israel from Lebanon on Tuesday, while Hamas rockets continued to rain down on southern and central Israel, including Tel Aviv, the most populous city.
After emphasizing that Hamas’ actions are a threat to the free world – and reminding viewers that the US has deployed its USS Gerald R. Ford aircraft carrier – the largest warship in the world – to the Eastern Mediterranean as a deterrent, Iranian-backed rebels in Yemen vowed to hit Israel with missiles if the US gets involved.
What’s more, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who flanked Biden during Tuesday’s address along with Vice President Kamala Harris, will head to Israel on Wednesday to meet with Israeli leadership.
Biden also confirmed that Americans are among those taken hostage by Hamas in Gaza and said Washington would ramp up aid to the Jewish State, including the delivery of Iron Dome missile interceptors, which are used to destroy incoming rockets.
The latest from the ground. The death toll in Israel has surpassed 1,200 since Hamas launched a series of massacres against southern Israeli towns on Saturday. As the Israeli military and ZAKA – Israel’s identification, extraction, and rescue squads – comb through kibbutzim and communities, they announced on Tuesday that 40 infants had been murdered on one kibbutz alone – including some gruesome beheadings.
Israel says that 156 soldiers were slain in the rampage, while the rest of the victims are civilians.
As Israel recovers bodies from the south, sporadic fighting with Hamas militants who remain in Israel has also broken out.
Meanwhile, the Israeli air campaign in Gaza continues, with Israel targeting Hamas facilities and personnel. In the densely populated Gaza Strip, Hamas fighters have been killed along with many civilians. The Palestinian death toll has surpassed 2,500, including 1,500 Hamas militants killed inside Israel after they waged Saturday’s attacks. The death toll inside Gaza is 1,055, according to the Hamas-run Health Ministry, and about two-thirds of these deaths are thought to be Hamas militants, according to David Makovsky of the Washington Institute of Near East Policy.
Israel has also placed the coastal enclave under a blockade, cutting off water, food and fuel shipments, exacerbating an already dire humanitarian situation.
Israel, for its part, will soon launch a ground offensive that could drag on for months. Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said to Israeli troops on Tuesday: “I have released all the restraints, we have [regained] control of the area, and we are moving to a full offense.”
“Whoever comes to decapitate, murder women, Holocaust survivors — we will eliminate him with all our might, and without compromise.”
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Eritrean riot fuels Bibi backlash
Over 150 people were injured, eight seriously, during violent clashes between hundreds of Eritrean migrants in Tel Aviv, Israel, over the weekend. Protesters breached police barriers, smashing storefronts, car windows, and an event set-up at the Eritrean embassy. Riot police responded with tear gas and stun grenades, and at least 30 officers were injured in battles with demonstrators. Thirty-nine suspects, including some found to be carrying weapons, tear gas, and an electrical stun gun, were arrested.
The rioters wanted to shut down a celebration of the rule of Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki, 77, a vicious autocrat who has governed the country since it became independent in 1993. Eritrea, sometimes called “the North Korea of Africa," holds no elections, has no political parties or independent courts, restricts free speech and the press, and compels military service and forced labor. These conditions continue to spur Eritreans to flee; nearly 18,000 now call Israel home, after arriving illegally through Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula.
Even before this weekend’s shocking violence, however, Eritreans in Israel faced limited sympathy. The current government considers them “illegal job migrants,” not refugees. Former Interior Minister Eli Yishai was quoted as saying that he wanted to make their lives “so miserable that they would want to leave.” Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has called them a threat to Israeli national security and “our national identity.”
The violence has now given Netanyahu grounds to act on these sentiments. On Sunday, he announced that 1,000 people supportive of the Eritrean regime would be deported and ordered ministers to draw up a plan to remove all African migrants from Israel. Right-wing politicians have chimed in their support, and Bibi may also use the situation to bolster his much-criticized Supreme Court reforms, since the court had previously stymied government attempts to deport illegal migrants. It looks like Eritreans seeking to escape tyranny back home may become political pawns in their adopted land.
Israel’s divisive judicial reforms becoming law
On Monday, Israel’s Knesset (parliament) passed the first bill of PM Benjamin “Bibi” Netanyahu’s controversial judicial reform bill.
Many Israelis were not happy about it. Police used a water cannon to disperse anti-government activists who had chained themselves outside the building, while President Isaac Herzog failed to negotiate a last-minute compromise. Banks, the influential tech sector, and part of the military have joined the protest against the divisive legislation.
Bibi was just released from the hospital, where on Sunday he underwent emergency pacemaker surgery after a heart-monitoring device detected a temporary arrhythmia. Before Netanyahu, 73, was briefly sedated, he temporarily handed power over to his top deputy, Justice Minister Yariv Levin.
Levin is considered the architect of the overhaul, which would curb the High Court’s power to overrule administrative decisions, including a nine-member committee that selects judges. Critics say the law would give the ruling far-right coalition carte blanche on court appointments, and enable Bibi to interfere with his ongoing corruption trial. (He denies this and insists the reforms are necessary to curb the powers of an activist judiciary.)
Popular opposition to the bill peaked over the weekend, as throngs of Israelis flooded the streets of Jerusalem for a 29th straight week of protests, some after marching for five days from Tel Aviv. A growing number of reservists say they will not report to duty if the reforms become law, and several former army top brass, police commissioners, and intelligence chiefs penned a public letter to Netanyahu, accusing him of being “directly responsible for the serious harm” to Israel’s security.
But Bibi is unlikely to cave to any pressure. He knows that his fragile coalition government is toast if he doesn’t push ahead with the reforms.A crucial vote on the judiciary in Israel
On Tuesday, Israelis opposed to the government's judicial overhaul blocked highways leading to the country's main cities as part of a national day of disturbance the day after the Knesset (parliament) passed the first part of a legislative package designed to dilute the power of the judiciary.
At the heart of the bill – which still needs two more parliamentary votes to pass – is the “reasonableness” clause. If enacted, the clause would prevent the High Court from overriding government decisions the judges deem to be unreasonable. This provision applies to administrative issues (like ministerial appointments) but not legislation.
This is a top legislative priority for the far-right government led by PM Benjamin Netanyahu. Consider that earlier this year, Israel’s High Court ruled that a senior member of the Netanyahu government could not serve in the cabinet because he had previously vowed to exit politics as part of a plea deal linked to corruption charges. While the court deemed the appointment a violation of the reasonable standard, the government said this move reflected the court’s activist streak.
Israelis have doubled down on protests in recent days, including in the halls of the Knesset. The last time this happened, the big labor unions joined in, causing Israel’s international airport to shutter for a day, and bringing Israel’s economy to a standstill. With his back against the wall, Netanyahu then called for a cooling-off period, putting the judicial overhaul on the back burner for several months.
But analysts say that the government would fall if Bibi drags his feet again, something the PM is loath to let happen. In the meantime, demonstrations, public disruption, and military holdouts are only getting more pronounced.The latest from Israel and Gaza
After three days of fighting between Israel and the Iran-backed Palestinian Islamic Jihad militants in the Gaza Strip, there are no signs that the crisis is abating.
After Israeli forces took out a number of high-profile PIJ commanders in recent days, the group responded by firing more than 800 rockets at southern and central Israel. Many of those rockets have either been intercepted by missile defense systems, landed inside Gaza, or fallen in vacant areas inside Israel.
But at least one Israeli was killed when a rocket hit a residential building in a Tel Aviv suburb on Thursday, while dozens of Palestinians have been killed, including civilians and children, as Israel pummels PIJ strongholds in the Strip.
It’s notable that Hamas, which governs Gaza, does not appear to have joined PIJ in firing rockets at Israel, but it’s hard to imagine PIJ launching a barrage like this without at least tacit approval from Hamas leadership.
So far, ceasefire efforts mediated by Egypt have proved fruitless: PIJ wants Israel to stop the targeted killing of its commanders, which Jerusalem won’t agree to. Meanwhile, Israel wants the group to stop firing rockets without preconditions.
Ian Explains: Why Israel's judiciary reform is so controversial
Israel celebrated Memorial Day and its 75th birthday in late April. But now the country is looking ahead once more, and not liking what it sees, Ian Bremmer explains on GZERO World.
Israelis are split on the left and right over Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu's far-right coalition and its push for a bill that would give the executive and legislature control of the judiciary.
Critics argue that the reform would undermine democracy by weakening the courts and removing protections for minorities.
Bibi, who delayed the legislation vote until May, is in a tough position: Pressing on risks irreparable harm to Israel's democracy, but pulling back means that the political allies propping him up may abandon him.