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Iran-Israel crisis: Dangers still high with little room for diplomacy
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
Does the Iran-Israel crisis offer a unique opportunity for diplomacy?
I don't think so. They certainly give an opportunity for a bunch of countries to reengage with Israel. We're seeing that with Jordan, with Saudi Arabia, and to show the Iranians that they are still considered to be the big concern as an enemy in the region, a disrupter. But that's very different from saying we're going to see a breakthrough in relations. You're not resetting deterrence. Iran is going to continue to lead the axis of resistance and provide weapons and intelligence and engage in strikes against targets across the region. Israel will still hit Iranians that are operating there. So going forward, I think the dangers are still pretty high.
Is Germany's Scholz meeting with Xi in Beijing indicating a shift in Europe-China trade tensions?
Not really. Here, the fact that Scholz has a large number of German CEOs in tow means that, yes, he's concerned that the Chinese are providing support to Russia, maybe even increasingly dual-use military support to Russia in the war in Ukraine. He's concerned about Chinese industrial policy that's undermining, the interests of Americans and Europeans economically. But ultimately he is very reliant on investment and trade with China, and he's going to continue to support that. He is not fully aligned with his government on this issue, not his advisors, not his foreign minister, and certainly not the other parties in the coalition. But it is Scholz's perspective. And as a consequence, it is going to be a pretty friendly trip.
Why is Sudan's year-long conflict gone largely unnoticed?
Well, we write about it a fair amount, but I mean, the fact that it is in a part of the world that doesn't have economic implications. So you blow up Ukraine, and Russia is in a fight, and energy prices and food and fertilizer prices go up. Major conflict in Sudan. A lot of people suffer, a lot of people die, but the rest of the world has no impact economically. Also, most of the refugees, people fleeing, fleeing to neighboring African countries, they're not coming over to Mexico, the United States or to Poland and to Germany. And that just doesn't lead to a lot of attention. Final point is that there aren't a lot of journalists on the ground from the West in Sudan. And so not a lot of people are actually covering this. So for all of those reasons, not getting a lot of attention, but we'll keep talking about it.
Sudanese who fled the conflict in Sudan's Darfur region, cross the border between Sudan and Chad.
UN: Sudan situation is spiraling
Four months after conflict broke out between rival factions in Sudan, the UN warned this week that the situation is spiraling out of control.
The grim statistics: At least 1 million people – roughly the population of Austin, Texas – have fled to neighboring countries, while over 3 million remain displaced inside Sudan, according to UN data.
At least 380,000 Sudanese have fled to Chad, where they languish in refugee camps, while many others have sought refuge in South Sudan, the Central African Republic, Egypt, Ethiopia, and Libya – all of which are grappling with their own domestic crises.
The UN now warns that, amid the fighting, medical supplies are scarce and that 100,000 Sudanese women due to give birth in the next 12 weeks may not have access to healthcare facilities.
Recap: Who is fighting whom again? On one side is Gen. Abdel-Fattah Burhan, the country's army chief and de facto leader since 2021. That was when the military took over in a violent coup, overthrowing a joint civilian-military government. On the other side is Burhan’s former ally and junta deputy Gen. Mohammed Hamdan Dagalo, known as Hemedti, who is head of the Rapid Support Forces, a militia that grew out of the Janjaweed death squads that committed genocide in Darfur.
The two sides met in Togo last month for negotiations that yielded no breakthroughs.
The US, EU, Russia, African Union, and Gulf states all have competing interests in resource-rich Sudan (more on that here), which has further complicated mediation efforts. As time goes on and fighting spreads throughout the country – most notably in Darfur – Sudan is developing the hallmarks of a protracted conflict.
Speaking to GZERO Media as the US took over the presidency of the UN Security Council earlier this month, US Ambassador to the UN Linda Thomas-Greenfield said that the situation in Sudan will be a top priority. Watch the clip here.
As Sudan war worsens, Ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield says UN must help
On August 1, the United States will take over the presidency of the UN Security Council.
Ian Bremmer sat down with US Ambassador to the UN Linda Thomas-Greenfield at the UN headquarters in New York to find out what’s on the US agenda for the council presidency next month.
High on the list is addressing issues of food insecurity, human rights violations, and calling out Russia for their ongoing war in Ukraine. But Thomas-Greenfield is also concerned about another global conflict that isn’t getting nearly the same amount of attention: the war in Sudan.
On July 23, the Sudan conflict entered its 100th day. The war is waging a devastating human toll, reigniting ethnic violence and increasing concerns the country is descending into a “full-scale civil war.” On April 15, tensions between the Sudanese army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces erupted into armed conflict, turning Khartoum and surrounding areas into a war zone. More than 3 million people have been displaced from their homes, including 700,000 refugees who’ve fled to nearby countries. The health ministry reports that some 1,136 people have been killed, though the true number is believed to be much higher.
Ambassador Thomas-Greenfield says that maintaining peace and security around the globe is a fundamental responsibility of the Security Council. While the war in Ukraine is certainly a priority, the war in Sudan must also be on the agenda.
“The people in Sudan want to hear from the Security Council that we have not forgotten them, that we care about the human rights violations that are being committed,” Thomas-Greenfield told Bremmer. “They need to hear the world has not turned their backs on what is happening in their country.”
Watch the upcoming full interview on GZERO World with Ian Bremmer on gzeromedia.com/gzeroworld and on US public television. Check local listings.
A Sudanese girl who fled the conflict in Darfur stands at her makeshift shelter near the border between Sudan and Chad
Another flareup in Western Darfur
As fighting between two rival army factions in Sudan rages on, the spillover effects on the restive Darfur region are getting worse.
The flare-up has drawn in local militias in Western Darfur, resulting in hundreds of deaths in the city of El-Geneina this week alone, while thousands have also been displaced.
Hospitals and markets in the region were also burned down by Arab militias and African insurgent groups that have remained at loggerheads since 2003, when Sudan's then-President Omar al-Bashir waged a deadly crackdown to quash an ethnic revolt, killing some 300,000 people.
Many of those fleeing the violence in Western Darfur are now crossing over into Chad, exacerbating a humanitarian crisis in one of the world’s poorest countries.
Meanwhile, the UN said on Wednesday that more than half of Sudan’s population – around 25 million – now relies on aid, up from 15 million, and has called on member states to raise $3 billion to help the war-torn country. But if the crisis in Yemen is anything to go by – the UN’s Humanitarian Response Plan there remains grossly underfunded – Sudan might not get what it needs from the international community anytime soon.
A snapshot of the humanitarian crisis in Sudan.
The Graphic Truth: Crisis on top of crisis in Sudan
Recent clashes between two military factions in Sudan have brought fresh misery to a people long plagued by conflict – and in some regions genocide – under longtime autocrat Omar al-Bashir (1993-2019). Violence in Khartoum, now in its third week, has displaced more than 330,000 people, adding to the millions already displaced as a result of ethnic violence in South Sudan in recent years. When al-Bashir was ousted in a popular uprising in 2019, there were hopes that Sudan could undergo a democratic transition, but those aspirations have mostly been quashed. Here’s a snapshot of the humanitarian toll of recent fighting.
US embassy and navy officials help evacuees from Sudan disembark in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia.
Saudi Arabia to host Sudan peace talks — if they can get there
Amid a shaky ceasefire, Sudan’s warring generals have agreed to pursue negotiations in Saudi Arabia.
Direct talks, if they take place, would focus on creating a “stable and reliable” cease-fire overseen by international organizations. But organizers face a major logistical obstacle: Both sides need safe passage through each other’s territory to get to Saudi Arabia.
The urgent need for negotiations cannot be overstated. Since fighting broke out three weeks ago, 20,000 Sudanese have fled to neighboring Chad, foreign governments have scrambled to evacuate their citizens and embassies, and former PM Abdalla Hamdok has warned of a looming humanitarian crisis that could rival Syria and Libya.
As of late last week, more than 500 people had already been killed and 4,100 wounded, but these numbers could be much higher. Fierce fighting continued even amid a string of temporary truces over the weekend.
Humanitarian groups need a cease-fire in order to get more vital aid to civilians, but a lack of trust could stop the generals from ever reaching Saudi Arabia.
Saudi navy officials help civilians onboard their ship to be evacuated from Sudan.
No truce in Sudan
Fierce fighting between the army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces resumed on Sunday in Sudan, with the two warring parties accusing each other of violating a fragile ceasefire. The truce was again extended for another 72 hours, but don't keep your hopes up.
As the security situation worsens, foreign countries keep scrambling to get their citizens out. The US, which last week was reluctant to carry out a mass evacuation of Americans, over the weekend changed its mind and dispatched a convoy to Saudi Arabia via Port Sudan. Other foreign nationals were less lucky: A Turkish aircraft came under fire, highlighting how dangerous airlifts have become.
Meanwhile, the humanitarian crisis has gone from bad to worse. Some two-thirds of hospitals in battleground areas of Khartoum are out of service, with medical supplies, health workers, water, and electricity all in short supply. More than 500 civilians have been killed in three weeks of clashes and over 20,000 Sudanese have fled to neighboring Chad.
Former PM Abdalla Hamdok warned that the ongoing conflict could become worse than Libya or Syria. Based on the available firepower and the sheer number of outside players that might get involved, it's certainly no exaggeration.Fleeing Sudanese seek refuge in Chad.
Sudan at risk of biological hazard
As if things weren’t bad enough in Sudan, there’s now growing fear of a biological catastrophe after one of two warring military factions took control of Khartoum’s National Public Laboratory.
The World Health Organization warned Wednesday of a “high risk of biological hazard” at the lab, which stores pathogens like measles and cholera and other hazardous materials.
After militants forced lab technicians to leave, WHO said the situation was “extremely dangerous,” though it wouldn’t say which group – the Sudanese army or the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces – had seized the compound.
The two sides agreed this week to a 72-hour ceasefire that will expire on Thursday night. While fighting has ceased throughout much of the capital, allowing people to leave their homes and access food aid, clashes persist in some pockets of the city.
But things were already dire at NPL and throughout Khartoum’s health system since clashes erupted in the capital almost two weeks ago. At the lab, lifesaving treatments – including blood bags for transfusions – couldn’t be stored properly due to electricity outages. Meanwhile, officials say that 61% of the city’s health facilities aren’t operational due to shelling.
This development comes amid a greater sense of lawlessness in Khartoum after a number of former officials associated with longtime autocrat Omar al-Bashir escaped from prison.
The WHO says it is still conducting a thorough risk assessment, but the situation is deteriorating quickly as a tenuous truce frays.