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The state of multilateralism: Shaky, fragile & stretched to capacity
Dr. Comfort Ero of the International Crisis Group has spent her career tackling the most difficult conflicts in the world, often exacerbated by severe environmental or social disasters. But as the climate crisis and war in Ukraine compound the forces pushing many fragile societies to the brink, she says multilateral institutions like the United Nations are not prepared to meet the challenge.
Faced with state collapse, food insecurity, and lack of governance, countries like Libya, Lebanon and Sri Lanka are not able to access the help they need to stabilize, build resilience and thrive.
“Countries are already facing difficult trend lines with a multilateral system that is shaky, that is fragile, that is already stretched to its capacity, not able to deal.” she said during a Global Stage livestream event at UN headquarters in New York on September 22, on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly.
The discussion was moderated by Nicholas Thompson of The Atlantic and was held by GZERO Media in collaboration with the United Nations, the Complex Risk Analytics Fund, and the Early Warnings for All initiative.
Watch the full Global Stage conversation: Can data and AI save lives and make the world safer?
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- Many knew Putin wasn't bluffing, but not how far he'd go, says International Crisis Group’s Comfort Ero ›
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Can data and AI save lives and make the world safer?
The global climate crisis is acute. In the last few months alone, Hawaii, Morocco and Libya have experienced climate-linked catastrophes that have wiped out communities and killed tens of thousands of people.
At the same time, emerging tech – notably artificial intelligence and data ecosystems – are becoming increasingly sophisticated and influential. There’s been much focus on the perils and threats posed by these scientific developments, but how can they be proactively harnessed to mitigate climate challenges and create a more resilient world?
On the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York, GZERO Media held a Global Stage livestream event unpacking these complex challenges and opportunities, in collaboration with the United Nations, the Complex Risk Analytics Fund, and the Early Warnings for All initiative.
This urgent conversation was be moderated by Nick Thompson, CEO, The Atlantic; and featured Melinda Bohannon, Director General of Humanitarian and Development at the UK’s Foreign Commonwealth & Development Office; Ian Bremmer, President and Founder of Eurasia Group and GZERO Media; Vilas Dhar, President and Trustee, Patrick J. McGovern Foundation; Dr. Comfort Ero, President and CEO of International Crisis Group; Mami Mizutori, Special Representative of the UN Secretary-General for Disaster Risk Reduction; Amina Mohammed, UN Deputy Secretary-General; Amandeep Singh Gill, UN Envoy on Technology; Brad Smith, Vice Chair and President, Microsoft; Axel van Trostenburg, World Bank Managing Director; and Anne Witkowsky, Assistant Secretary of the Bureau of Conflict and Stabilization Operations at the US Department of State.
Emerging tech is presenting huge opportunities to identify climate hotspots and scale damage and destruction. Indeed, Smith says that satellites are able to not only capture visual images, but also gather “data streams” on fossil fuel emissions. In addition, AI is also being harnessed to identify communities affected by climate calamities and see which “people have been rendered homeless.” Still, tech companies can’t do it alone. In order to identify what their exact needs are, Smith adds, partnerships with NGOs and other stakeholders are key.
Amandeep Singh Gill had much to say about how these processes are applied in real time, particularly when addressing world hunger. “Across 90 countries, 700-800 million people are at risk of food insecurity,” he notes, adding that using data across institutions has allowed the multilateral organization “to get assessments about where food insecurity is going to spike next, and that allows us to respond in a better way.”
Still, having access to copious amounts of data is one thing, but figuring out how to use it to effectuate change is quite another. “There's a real gap between the information that's out there and the ability to act upon the information that's out there,” Dr Ero says, adding that “lack of policy and action” and failure to act quickly when crises are identified are hindering these global efforts. Dr Ero points to the situation in Somalia, which is still grappling with an insurgency by the Al-Shabaab terror group while also facing floods and trying to rebuild its society. “All the data points are showing the stresses that Somalia has to deal with, but why aren't we able to respond to that?” she asks, highlighting poor governance and lack of political will as impediments to progress.
When asked about how these issues might be affected by the fact that heads of state from four out of five permanent members of the UN Security Council did not show up at the UN General Assembly this week, Amina Mohammed said there is “huge momentum” from governments and stakeholders. “The 2030 agenda is urgent, and we really do just feel that there is a movement to make that happen. There's a sense of determination … too many people are at stake.”
And there’s one elephant in the room when discussing climate change and tech advancements: China. One big issue, Bremmer notes, “is that China is really distracted by very significant domestic economic challenges and that has put real constraints, material constraints, on their foreign policy strategy over the long term,” he says.
Watch our livestream: Reimagining Tomorrow: LIVE from the UN General Assembly
The climate crisis looms large, affecting at least 3.3 billion people directly. In 2023 alone, almost 340 million individuals need emergency support globally, over 100 million are displaced in search of sustainable refuge, and the shadow of hunger extends to more than 230 million people. How can we leverage technological breakthroughs in artificial intelligence (AI), analytics, and data ecosystems to shape a more resilient and optimistic tomorrow?
Watch our virtual livestream, Reimagining Tomorrow: Breakthroughs in Data and AI for a More Resilient World, LIVE from the United Nations General Assembly on September 21 at 10 am ET. Hosted by GZERO Media in collaboration with the United Nations, the Complex Risk Analytics Fund, and the Early Warnings for All initiative, the event will bring together global leaders and change-makers to envision a world where the power of data, analytics, and AI is harnessed to pave the way for a sustainable and resilient future.
This special conversation will be moderated by Nick Thompson, CEO, The Atlantic; and feature Melinda Bohannon, Director General of Humanitarian and Development at the UK’s Foreign Commonwealth & Development Office; Ian Bremmer, President and Founder of Eurasia Group and GZERO Media; Vilas Dhar, President and Trustee, Patrick J. McGovern Foundation; Dr. Comfort Ero, President and CEO of International Crisis Group; Mami Mizutori, Special Representative of the UN Secretary-General for Disaster Risk Reduction; Amina Mohammed, UN Deputy Secretary-General; Amandeep Singh Gill, UN Envoy on Technology; Brad Smith, Vice Chair and President, Microsoft; Axel van Trostenburg, World Bank Managing Director; Dr. Comfort Ero, President and CEO of International Crisis Group; and Anne Witkowsky, Assistant Secretary of the Bureau of Conflict and Stabilization Operations at the U.S. Department of State.
LIVE from the United Nations General Assembly
Reimagining Tomorrow: Breakthroughs in Data and AI for a More Resilient World
Thursday, September 21, 10am ET
Stay informed about further Global Stage discussions: sign up for updates and reminders about GZERO Media's events.
Many knew Putin wasn't bluffing, but not how far he'd go, says International Crisis Group’s Comfort Ero
People rightfully focus on conflict prevention and deterrence, but global policy lagged behind when it came to preparing for the Russian invasion.
“What surprises me is that no actor says they’re surprised by what happened. You ask yourself, what about the steps that ought to have been taken?” says Comfort Ero, president and CEO of the International Crisis Group, during a Global Stage livestream conversation hosted by GZERO in partnership with Microsoft at the Munich Security Conference.
Some argue that the original sin was perhaps not dealing with the crises in Georgia and Crimea, she adds. Moving forward, she says, NATO and the West must focus on having anticipatory policies that prevent military aggression.
Watch the full Global Stage livestream conversation “Live from Munich: Ukraine and the Global Turning Point.”
Is there a path ahead for peace in Ukraine?
As we approach the grim first anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine – which came on the heels of last year’s Munich Security Conference – GZERO is back in Germany, discussing the past year since the war began, what’s likely to come next, and what it means for the world.
Benedetta Berti, NATO’s head of policy planning in the office of the Secretary-General; Ian Bremmer, president and founder of Eurasia Group and GZERO Media; Comfort Ero, president and CEO of Crisis Group; and Brad Smith, vice chair and president of Microsoft, sat down with CNN’s Nic Robertson at the Munich Security Conference for a Global Stage livestream, hosted by GZERO Media in partnership with Microsoft.
Taking stock of the past 12 months, the panelists discussed Western unity and Ukraine’s resolve while warning against underestimating Russia’s possible next moves. The West gets a top grade for its response to the invasion, Ian Bremmer says. But much depends on sustained unity and keeping war fatigue at bay. “I think it's always more difficult for a democratically elected government to sustain that kind of political support and public support,” says Brad Smith.
While many overestimated Russia’s military prowess and underestimated Ukraine’s agility to embrace technology and stay the course, Benedetta Berti warns that it ”would be a real strategic mistake if we started to underestimate what Russia could do in the future.” Could spillover be a threat to Europe and the world?
Bremmer notes that the West cannot afford to assume that the Russians are incapable of doing anything to NATO simply because they haven’t done so yet. “Russia is becoming the most powerful rogue state in history, and we have seen that a much less powerful Iran has caused an enormous amount of problems in their backyard.” What form could Russian aggression toward NATO take? “I think that we should recognize,” says Bremmer, “that we will start to see asymmetric attacks from Russia against NATO.”
Comfort Ero, meanwhile, was careful to point to the global ramifications of the war, noting how it has disrupted food supplies while distracting many from other major crises. “Everybody's got Ukraine in their headline, but the most deadly violent conflict last year was not Ukraine,” she says. “It was Ethiopia.”
The panelists also reflected on the power of technology, addressing whether it is making the world a safer or more dangerous place. Smith noted how quickly and flexibly Ukraine has used technology to its advantage – both on the battlefield and particularly “President Zelensky's ability to use [it] to really rally the support of the world.”
But can tech make the world a safe place? How will the US-China AI race impact its development and use?
Bremmer says that technology has certainly made the world wealthier, making people safer by pulling them from poverty. But while 8 billion people worldwide are better off because of it, “they feel like technology is becoming more dangerous” because of its speed of development.
As for the future of Ukraine, the biggest worry, says Bremmer, is that we’re “not seeing even a remote possibility of an exit ramp, a remote possibility of negotiations getting started.” This means the West has no idea of what things might look like after the war.
“I've never seen the fog of war feel this thick.”