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Israel-Hamas war: Who is responsible for Gaza's enormous civilian death toll?
Now Jose Andres is, he's obviously very angry. He's very upset. Who wouldn't be in that environment? He's blaming Israel, says that this was intentionally targeting his workers. I have a hard time believing that the Israeli Defense Forces would have wanted to kill his workers intentionally in the sense that they understand the blowback that would come and the idea of just going after aid workers, if the West were to find out about that, would clearly be damaging for Israel across the board. Having said that, I do believe that they targeted these convoys. In other words, they knew that they were going to hit aid workers, but they believed that one of the people in this convoy was a militant, a Hamas militant, and the willingness to take civilian casualties, known civilian casualties in order to get a target that has some value, Hamas target is not only considered acceptable, but is sort of standard practice in the war in Gaza.
So yes, they hit one of the cars in the convoy, the truck, then the second and then a third. Those targets were assessed and evaluated. These are not dumb missiles. These are guided missiles, and they know exactly what they are hitting and what they are trying to take out. The question of course is, is this acceptable? And this is not new. It is not a one-off. I mean, they apologize this time because of the high level of attention, because it's Jose Andres and because an American and Westerners were killed.
But others have brought this up in previous aid worker strikes. We saw Cindy McCain on behalf of the World Food Program connected to the United Nations, has said that this has been going on for months now, and she's brought it up and Congress members have brought it up directly with Prime Minister Netanyahu. He's promised he's going to do something about it. That hasn't been the case. Hasn't gotten much attention because there you're talking about Palestinians that are getting targeted and getting killed, and that doesn't get anywhere near the attention that Jose Andres and an American and a bunch of white people.
But nonetheless, it is a consistent level of focus of if you're trying to ensure that you are getting every high, mid and low value Hamas militant target, and there's tens of thousands of them, you are willing to accept that large numbers of civilians are going to get caught up in this. Now, who's to blame for all of this? Anyone that's saying the Israelis are only to blame for this, I strongly disagree because Hamas, as an organization is operating in civilian areas, densely populated civilian areas, in hospitals, under hospitals, in schools, under schools with human shields. They're doing so intentionally both to try to protect their fighters, but also to ensure maximum PR information war damage on the Israelis when they target Hamas so that they have to be responsible for killing civilians.
And the fact that Hamas is actively doing that, putting their civilians in maximum danger, maximum danger, to help ensure that they can achieve their own ideological and political goals, it means that they are responsible for deaths of Palestinian civilians. But anyone that says that Hamas is solely responsible and Israel has no responsibility, clearly isn't paying attention. I mean, if Israel is apologizing for these aid workers because they happen to be Westerners, that means that they are targeting people that is excessive, that that's not okay even if they believe that there is one militant in that group. And that would be equally true if those people that were killed were all Palestinians. It's not just because they are Australians or Americans, that their lives have value after all. And we are talking about over 30,000 people that have been killed. Two thirds of which according to the IDF are civilians.
That's an enormous number. It's a higher rate of civilian casualties per day than we have seen in any war in modern times. More than Syria, more than Iraq, more than Afghanistan, or Ukraine, or Sudan, or Yemen. That's what we're seeing in Gaza right now. And that is why the United States government has said that they will not continue to support Israel the way they have if there is not a change in protection of civilians and ensuring that humanitarian aid gets through. This is new for the Biden administration. President Biden has been very, very reluctant to have any direct consequences to the Israelis. And now you are talking about conditioning a level of military support for Israel on an active change, not just no longer attacking Rafah, which is something that Netanyahu has said he's going to do. The war cabinet has said they're going to do, and they have not yet done a ground offensive on the ground in Rafah.
But now they're saying, unless you change the rules for how you are protecting civilians and how you are allowing humanitarian aid, then American aid for Israel is going to be withdrawn, American military support. It's a hard thing for Biden to do. He's going to get a lot of opposition both from Republicans and from some Democrats and Bibi Netanyahu is going to increasingly, I suspect publicly, try to use that against him. Now, the pressure is on the Israeli Prime Minister at home. It is growing because, well, for a number of reasons. One is because they're having a hard time with whether or not there will be exemptions for Orthodox, for the Haredim, Jews that are given exemptions from military service. Benny Gantz has said, if that exemption continues, that he's not going to stay in the government. On the other hand, the far right, the religious right have said that they will no longer support Netanyahu and his coalition if he backs away from that.
Now you've seen that Gantz has said that he is no longer going to support the government going forward. He's calling for elections, though if he pulls out of the war cabinet, then they still have a coalition in the Knesset. So it's not an immediate push away from Netanyahu, but the pressure is growing. Clearly Bibi is more willing both to continue and escalate the war, but also to take the fight directly and politically to Biden and the United States to do what he can to stay in power. So that pressure's growing. That certainly is part of it. It informs why we're seeing more talk of growing strikes into Lebanon, deeper into Lebanon that could bring Hezbollah into the war. This also informs the decision to attack right next to the Iranian embassy in Damascus, taking out a high-level IRGC leader that is providing support in the proxy war in Syria against the United States, against Israel makes it more likely, whether by accident or through direct escalation that the United States and Israel are eventually in a war with Iran.
And the one part of the conversation between the Israeli Prime Minister and Biden that was clearly aligned was when Biden told the Israelis that they are very aware of the expanded threats from Iran against Israel. And the US will do everything they can to support Israel in that fight. So this is a really, really sticky situation politically. It is a very dangerous military situation in the region. It is one that is clearly hurting Biden at home. It's likely to get worse before it gets better. That's it for me. I'll talk to you all real soon. Be good.
- Aid trickles into Gaza – but how’s it getting there? ›
- Netanyahu and Hamas both won, Israelis and Palestinians lost ›
- Israel-Hamas war: Biden's second foreign policy crisis ›
- Israel-Hamas war: West Bank raid won't derail cease-fire ›
- Why the Israel-Hamas war is so divisive ›
- Ian Bremmer: Understanding the Israel-Hamas war ›
Thick smoke rises from buildings after an Israeli air strike on the city of Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip.
With the cease-fire over, it’s back to war for Israel and Hamas
War has resumed in Gaza following the end of the seven-day cease-fire between Hamas and the state of Israel, with each side claiming the other caused the collapse. Beyond the blame game, however, where do things go from here?
Hamas and the hostages
To date, Israel has grappled with two key objectives: destroying the Hamas threat and recovering all hostages. With the breakdown of negotiations and the revelation that many hostages are in the hands of groups other than Hamas, the second objective has become more difficult. Nonetheless, the White House is reportedly pressuring both sides to come back to the bargaining table.
Some US politicians would take a different approach. Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., told CNN’s “State of the Union” on Sunday that the hostage impasse could be resolved by threatening Iran, the sponsor of Hamas. “I would go to Iran and say listen, you need to tell Hamas to let these hostages go,” he said. “If you don’t, you’re going to start paying a heavier price.”
Another pressure point could come if Israel achieves more of its military objectives, including the assassination of senior Hamas leaders. Israeli political analysts said the death of Yahya Sinwar, the presumed architect of the Oct. 7 attacks, would be considered a victory. “If the Israeli military succeeded in assassinating a major Hamas figure, I expect Netanyahu would seek to take credit,” said Anshel Pfeffer, a columnist for Haaretz newspaper, and author of “Bibi: The Turbulent Life and Times of Benjamin Netanyahu.”
Bibi in the balance
At stake is not just the fate of the remaining hostages and the Palestinians in Gaza, but the political future of Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. A whopping 80% of Israelis believe Netanyahu was responsible for security failures that led to the attacks of Oct. 7. Netanyahu is now facing even greater criticism after it emerged that his government dismissed intelligence reports about potential Hamas attacks a year ago.
Since the start of the war, Netanyahu’s polling numbers have declined steadily. In the most recent poll released on Friday by the Israeli newspaper Ma’ariv, 30% of respondents said that Bibi was the best fit for prime minister, while 49% preferred former Defense Minister Benny Gantz. On top of this, Netanyahu’s trial on corruption charges, which had been suspended, resumes today in the Jerusalem District Court. If convicted, Bibi could face several years in jail unless his political allies come to his aid, either by legalizing some of the “crimes” he is accused of or stopping his trial entirely.
Israel & Gaza: Is a ground invasion of Gaza likely?
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
What would a ground invasion of Gaza look like?
Two steps here. And I do think it's very likely indeed. The first is the Israelis basically send troops in and divide Gaza in two. They surround Gaza City. They take over the rest of the territory. Small cities lightly populated basically, not urban warfare. That can be done in a matter of probably five days a week. But much longer than that is Gaza City itself. That's where they really get bogged down, take lots of casualties. That could be a matter of a month or even more. And of course, what do you do once you've taken it? No one's answered that.
How much support does Hamas have within Gaza?
I think an enormous amount of support. I think that increasingly, as the situation has become much more desperate economically, as well as from a security perspective in Gaza, that Hamas has gotten more support, born of desperation, certainly a majority of Palestinians on the ground in Gaza, not in the West Bank, which is a larger Palestinian population, I think, support Hamas at this point. Again, yes, that is a terrorist organization.
What is Iran's next move?
I think sit back and wait to see how this plays out. Hard for me to imagine that Iran would want to be involved directly in this war. Things are going pretty well for them right now. They've got better relations with China, break through with Saudi Arabia. They just got, you know, 6 billion that's going to be unfrozen of their own assets by the Americans. And the idea that they want to have a war with Israel seems to me very far-fetched. But watch Hezbollah closely. They're much more operationally capable than Hamas and also have a lot closer ties directly with the Iranian leadership.
How does US support for Israel compare to US support for Ukraine?
US support for Israel, well, I mean, at the beginning of the Ukraine war, I'd say it's very close. And this, of course, is the beginning of Israel's fight in Gaza against Hamas. But right now, I would say that American support for Israel is overwhelming and bipartisan. It is whatever it takes for as long as it takes. I heard President Biden say that about Ukraine just a couple of months ago. Ukraine is becoming very much a partisan issue caught up in the election. I don't believe that an Israeli war in Gaza will go on for nearly as long as the Russia war in Ukraine. And so I think that bipartisan support is likely to stick, but certainly there will be pressure on it the longer the war goes.