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Israel attacks Iran
Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: Hi, everybody. Ian Bremmer here and a Quick Take on the latest in the Middle East crisis. And things actually looking a little bit more stable today than they have over the past couple of weeks. And that is some very welcome news.
The headlines, of course, that the Iranians have been hit by Israel, though no one is saying that Israel has admitted to doing it, in the town of Isfahan. Clearly, military targets and the Iranians trying to knock down those missiles coming over. But this was a significantly more restrained attack than what the Israelis did to kick off this crisis, which was attack an Iranian government building in Damascus and target and assassinate a senior Iranian leader. That led to the Iranian response that we saw over the weekend, which was a significant and serious one, with a few hundred missiles and drones. And now we are in the escalatory portion of the cycle.
The United States said very clearly to Israel, “We're going to help defend you no matter what. We don't want any offensive strikes against Iran. Take the win.” The fact that they said that meant that it was very, very likely that they were going to do something, but that something was going to be restrained, where if the Americans said, “Hey, just take it easy, don't do anything big,” then they’d end up doing something bigger, right? And you give them an inch, they take two inches. This is the way these things work. And it was coordinated with the United States. The US was not involved directly in the military strikes, but they knew it was coming. They had that cooperation, communication from Israel, which was important because the US had to be in position in case the Iranians decided that they were going to strike real time in response to Israel. The Americans were going to help the Israelis defend themselves yet again.
Now, the big question here is not, “Do the Iranians respond in a big way?” They don't. They've already signaled that that's not the intention. You've seen them downplaying the nature of these strikes on Iranian state media. So, this crisis, this proximate crisis between Israel and Iran is now in the rearview mirror. But going forward, what's the likelihood that we can stabilize this war, which is now well beyond just a matter of Israel versus Hamas?
One thing that makes me a little bit more positive is the fact that Bibi Netanyahu is himself in a little more secure position domestically. What do you mean, makes you more positive? Does that mean he's going to last longer? Yes. But it also means he doesn't necessarily have to go ahead with massive strikes against Hamas in Rafah, killing lots of civilians. Or eventually against Hezbollah, pushing them back so that almost 100,000 Israeli citizens can get back to the north. If he wanted to take a win and show that he now has, you know, a historical legacy of leading Israel in defending against an unprecedented strike from Iran, with strong support from the Americans, from the Brits, from the Jordanians, from the Saudis, this is the opportunity that could create Saudi normalization with Israel. This is the opportunity that could create a peace deal that the Palestinians would have some form of governance over the West Bank and Gaza together.
That's the opportunity that comes from this, precisely because Israel domestically now has a leader that doesn't have to look over his shoulder every moment. But the strong effort by Netanyahu, at least as of today, is to still go ahead with these Rafah strikes. You've got the battalions on the ground. You want to use them, you want to take out, these Hamas leaders, irrespective of the civilian cost. And that continues to be very popular among the entire population of Israel as well.
So, when I think about the next couple of weeks, I think that you're not going to get a breakthrough deal on hostages with Hamas, and that means that the fighting only stops if there's a broader agreement. And that broader agreement requires that the Israeli war cabinet is willing to stand down and not continue their war on the ground in Gaza. And in return, has a broader agreement with the Americans, with the Gulf states, and ultimately with a path forward for the Palestinians. Most people around the world would welcome, would love to see that. Getting the Israelis from here to there, especially when you are surrounded by enemies that consider you, to be, illegitimate as a country and refuse to recognize your right to exist, that makes it a lot harder. So that's where we are. But some breathing space for now. The mood in the United States, certainly better than it was at any point over the last week and a half, and that's a good thing.
That's it for me. I'll talk to you all real soon.
Palestinian gunmen attend the funeral of the Palestinians who were killed in an Israeli army raid in the West Bank city of Jenin, Jan. 7, 2024.
Iran throws more sparks into a tinderbox
Even as the war in Gaza rages, tensions in the occupied West Bank continue to rise, and there is fresh evidence that Iran – a longstanding backer of armed Palestinian groups – has been flooding the territory with weapons over the past couple of years.
A New York Times investigation found that Tehran has been smuggling thousands of handguns and rifles into the West Bank. The weapons are routed either through the long, porous West Bank-Jordan border or via smuggling networks running through Lebanon and Israel itself. The Iranian commander assassinated last week by an Israeli airstrike in Damascus is thought to have been involved.
Since the Hamas rampage of Oct. 7, Israel has carried out fresh crackdowns on suspected militants in the West Bank, while the government has directly armed Israeli settlers who live in the territory illegally. Last year alone, more than 500 Palestinians were killed in clashes with Israeli settlers or troops, the highest mark on record.
The Palestinian Authority, which recognizes Israel and exerts limited self-government over the West Bank, is weak and deeply unpopular, raising concerns that the situation there could explode into a full-on violent intifada again, quickly transforming the Gaza war into a wider, two-front affair.
Muslim worshippers participate in the evening 'Tarawih' prayers during the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, at the Al-Aqsa compound, known to Jews as Temple Mount, in Jerusalem on March 10, 2024.
Will tensions burst at Al-Aqsa Mosque?
Jordanian Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi said Monday that the restrictions Israel is imposing on access to Jerusalem’s Al-Aqsa Mosque, which Jews call the Temple Mount, during Ramadan could lead to an “explosion.” Israeli police reportedly stopped thousands of Palestinians from praying at Islam’s third-holiest site on the first night of Ramadan, occasionally using batons to beat back crowds.
Israeli police said the unrest was an isolated incident, and thousands of Muslims were able to attend Ramadan prayers at the mosque last night.
The compound has long been a flashpoint for violence, and Safadi said the West Bank is already “boiling.” Since the outbreak of the war in Gaza, some 400 Palestinians in the West Bank have died in clashes with Israeli forces and armed settlers. Should tensions boil over into an uprising, even more bloodshed is likely.
The question hinges, in part, on Rafah. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Sunday he was still planning to go forward with a ground offensive — but nothing has happened yet, and the Ramadan deadline set by Israel’s war cabinet has passed. Amid growing international pressure to relieve civilian suffering, Netanyahu knows an invasion risks anger at home and abroad.
An invasion is also complicated by increasing international efforts to provide aid to Gaza, as foreign personnel — soon including US military on the promised floating pier — caught in the crossfire could further isolate Israel.
One example: On Tuesday, a ship carrying 200 tons of food set off for Gaza from a Cyprus port. The ship, the Open Arms, belongs to a Spanish charity and is part of a pilot mission funded largely by the United Arab Emirates and organized by the US World Central Kitchen organization.
For more on Israel’s impasse, watch Ian Bremmer’s Quick Take for GZERO here.
Pro-Palestinian protesters demonstrate outside the International Court of Justice (ICJ) on the day of a public hearing to allow parties to give their views on the legal consequences of Israel's occupation of the Palestinian territories before eventually issuing a non-binding legal opinion, in The Hague, Netherlands, February 19, 2024.
Israeli occupation on trial at ICJ
Palestinian Authority Foreign Affairs Minister Riyad al-Maliki on Monday delivered an opening statement before the International Court of Justice at the Hague in a case about Israel’s occupation of Palestinian Territories since 1967. The UN-backed court will hear from more than 50 countries and three multinational organizations – the largest case in the ICJ’s history – but a decision could take months, and it would be non-binding.
This is separate from South Africa’s case alleging Israel is committing genocide in Gaza.
Quick history: In the aftermath of Israel’s war of independence in 1948, Egypt occupied Gaza while the West Bank and East Jerusalem fell under Jordanian control. However, when Israel launched preemptive strikes against an imminent Egyptian invasion in 1967, it responded to Jordanian shelling by pushing Amman’s forces back across the Jordan River. Israel has occupied the West Bank and East Jerusalem ever since, while Israeli settlers have inhabited large portions of each territory (see our explainer here). Israel also captured Gaza and the Sinai desert from Egypt but withdrew all troops and settlers first from Sinai by 1982 and then from Gaza in 2005.
The arguments? Palestinians argue that the occupation undermines their self-determination, that Israeli policy amounts to apartheid, and that the occupation is illegal. Tuesday’s session will be opened by South Africa, a strong Palestinian advocate, followed by delegates from nine other countries including Chile, which has the largest Palestinian population outside the Middle East.
Israel said in a written argument that the question before the court is prejudiced and an opinion would be “harmful” to a resolution, but it will not directly participate in the proceedings. Its strongest ally, the United States, is slated to speak on Wednesday.
Will anything come of it? The short answer is no. Israel will be free to ignore any ICJ decision. That said, the exercise is already illustrating Israel’s near-total isolation on the global stage – and we’re watching for how the Biden administration threads a tricky needle of public opinion at home. The president is facing opposition from the left wing of his own party as well as Muslim voters in the key swing state of Michigan for what they see as an overly deferential position toward Israel’s war in Gaza.Skilled workers wait for their interview and skill test at a Haryana state government recruitment drive to send workers to Israel, at Maharshi Dayanand University in Rohtak, India, January 17, 2024.
Indian workers rush to fill gaps in Israel’s labor market
As an Israeli ban on Palestinian laborers begins to tax its own economy, foreigners are looking to fill the void.
In the days after October 7th, Israel closed its border with the occupied West Bank almost entirely, shutting out the roughly 150,000 Palestinian workers who previously crossed into Israel regularly for jobs in agriculture, construction, and other sectors.
Now thousands of miles away, Indian workers are eagerly looking to pick up that work. On Thursday, recruitment centers in India were thronged with people hoping to get jobs in Israel, which has launched a program to bring in as many as 70,000 workers from India, China, and other countries.
Why go work in a country at war? India itself is facing high unemployment. For many people, the promise of steady work with higher salaries (up to about $1,600 a month) – plus accommodation and medical benefits — is an attractive prospect.
Meanwhile, the West Bank suffers. It’s estimated that, overall, 276,000 jobs in the West Bank – 32% of all employment – have been lost since the Gaza war began. There are concerns this could contribute to further violence in the West Bank, where hundreds of Palestinians have been killed by the Israeli military and settlers since Oct. 7.
Will those jobs come back? It’s unclear. But any move to permanently freeze Palestinian labor out of Israel could make life drastically more intolerable in the West Bank, which depends hugely on the Israeli labor market.
Map of the West Bank
The West Bank: What is it?
While much of the world’s attention is on the Gaza Strip, tensions and violence are rising in the West Bank. Here are the basics:
What is the West Bank? A 2,200-square-mile enclave — larger than Rhode Island, smaller than Luxembourg — that has been under Israeli military occupation since 1967. It has a population of 3 million Palestinians, and nearly 700,000 Jewish settlers who live in communities known as “settlements,” which are illegal under international law.
Why is it called the “West Bank”? Because it lies along the west bank of the Jordan River, which now forms the border between the lands under Israel’s control and the Kingdom of Jordan. The West Bank and the Gaza Strip were both included as part of the Arab State that the UN proposed in its 1947 plan to partition Palestine between Arabs and Jews. Arab rejection of that plan, and the subsequent Arab-Israeli War of 1948, left the West Bank under Jordan’s control.
How did Israel get control of the West Bank? Israel won the territory from Jordan in 1967, during the Six-Day War.
What happened after that? Under the pretext of bolstering its defenses against future attacks by its Arab neighbors, Israel built hundreds of Jewish settlements and less formal settlement outposts in the West Bank. These settlements, which are protected and funded by the Israeli government, have often uprooted Palestinian homes and entire villages. Some settlements are populated by ultra-religious Jews who wish to live near ancient Jewish lands and holy sites in the area.
The Israeli government has also used military security or environmental conservation laws to restrict Palestinian access to vast areas of the West Bank. Along with the settlements, these interventions have turned the Palestinian-inhabited areas of the West Bank into a land archipelago of more than 160 non-contiguous areas.
Who governs the West Bank? Under the Oslo Accords of the 1990s, which were meant to pave the way to a two-state solution, a government called the Palestinian Authority (PA) has some powers, including policing and security functions, over Palestinian population centers in the West Bank. These areas are known as Areas “A” and “B.” All other areas, known as “Area C,” are under Israel’s control. Area C covers more than 60% of the West Bank.
Who controls the Palestinian Authority right now? The secular nationalist Fatah Party, the main rival to Hamas, rules the PA and has recognized Israel since the 1990s. The PA president is Mahmoud Abbas, known by his nickname “Abu Mazen.” General elections have not been held since 2006, when Hamas’ narrow victory led to a brief war between Fatah and Hamas. When it ended, Hamas was in power in Gaza, while Fatah held its ground in the West Bank.
Can Palestinians move freely through the West Bank? No, they are subject to a number of permanent or temporary checkpoints along key roads linking Palestinian areas. Jewish settlers have access to their own roads and infrastructure, which Palestinians are not permitted to use.
Can Palestinians from the West Bank enter Israel? Yes, but they must have special permits, often tied to work — day labor in Israel is a major source of income for the West Bank economy. In 2002, citing security concerns after a wave of suicide bombings in the 1990s and a violent uprising against the occupation that began in 2000, Israel began building a 440-mile “separation barrier” with the West Bank.
Who pays for running the West Bank? Israel funds the areas it controls. It also collects tax revenue on behalf of the Palestinian Authority, and has the power to unilaterally withhold this revenue from the PA if it chooses.
Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas meets with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken in Ramallah in the West Bank on Nov. 5, 2023.
Israel-Hamas war, 31 days in
A month in, and there’s no end in sight for the Israel-Hamas war. At least 1,400 Israeli civilians are dead, and 240 remain hostages, while some 9,500 Palestinians have been killed in Gaza. Protests around the world are calling for an end to the fighting, but there is no sign that a cease-fire is in the cards for either side.
On Saturday, foreign ministers from Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, and the United Arab Emirates met US Secretary of State Antony Blinken in Amman, Jordan, asking that he convince Israel to halt its bombardments. Mahmoud Abbas, head of the Palestinian Authority, did the same when Blinken met with him on Sunday in the West Bank.
But after the meetings, Blinken said an Israeli cease-fire in Gaza would only allow Hamas to regroup and to carry out further attacks while noting that Israel needed to take "every possible measure" to prevent civilian casualties. On Sunday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu also declared that “there won't be a cease-fire without the return of our hostages … we'll simply carry on until we win.” The Israeli military, meanwhile, said late Sunday that it had reached the coast in the south of Gaza City, effectively splitting the city in two.
What would beating Hamas look like? That is the question for the Jewish state and its allies amid Israel’s ground offensive in Gaza. Attempts to root out a terrorist organization operating amongst a civilian population have entailed severe loss of life for the Palestinians – something Hamas’ leadership decries yet extols.
"Will we have to pay a price? Yes, and we are ready to pay it. We are called a nation of martyrs, and we are proud to sacrifice martyrs,” said Hamas official Ghazi Hamad in a recent interview.
Hamad claimed that everything Hamas did was “justified” and that they would continue until Israel was destroyed. Such statements make it politically and practically impossible for Netanyahu to back down – and make a peaceful resolution of the crisis even less likely. They also increase fears of a regional conflagration, involving Hezbollah and the possibility of a third Intifada in the West Bank, as Hamas appeals to Islamic extremist elements to join its fight.
Mourners carry the bodies of three Palestinians who were killed in an Israeli drone strike, during their funeral at Jenin refugee camp in the Israeli-occupied West Bank October 25, 2023.
West Bank is heating up
While much of the world’s attention remains on Gaza, the situation is deteriorating fast in the occupied West Bank, where security operations by Israel and violent attacks by Jewish settlers on Palestinians have increased over the past two weeks.
The (very simplified) background: Israel has occupied the West Bank since 1967. The 2.5 million Palestinians living there are governed locally by the Palestinian Authority, which is led by the Fatah party, the main secular rival to Hamas. Fatah renounced violence in the 1990s as part of negotiations meant to reach a two-state solution with Israel. Since then, Jewish settlements, which are illegal under international law and often displace Palestinian homes, have expanded significantly — there are now more than 700,000 West Bank settlers. Israel maintains tight security control over the West Bank, in cooperation with the Palestinian Authority.
Even before the Oct. 7 Hamas massacre and Israel’s retaliation in Gaza, 2023 was already the deadliest year for Palestinians in the West Bank since at least 2008. Over the past two weeks, things have gotten worse: Israeli soldiers and settlers have killed as many as 100 Palestinians, according to Palestinian sources, while some 1,400 people have been detained.
Israel says it is moving to uproot Hamas and other terrorist operatives entrenched in the West Bank. In July, Israel launched its biggest West Bank operation in years, targeting militants, weapons caches, and bomb-making facilities in the northern city of Jenin.
On Wednesday, an Israeli airstrike there leveled a mosque the IDF said was housing a Hamas and Islamic Jihad command post. Recent reports suggest Iran has been flooding the West Bank with weapons that wind up in the hands of militant groups.
Israeli human rights organization B’Tselem, meanwhile, has warned that “state-backed settler violence” has also been rising in recent weeks, as armed settlers harass and attack ordinary Palestinians in the West Bank.
Who’s in charge? All of this puts aging Palestinian Authority president Mahmoud Abbas in a difficult position. The 87-year-old, chain-smoking PA chief is considered widely unpopular due to the perception that Fatah has achieved little for Palestinians after more than two decades of cooperating with Israel.
As casualties in Gaza mount, while Israeli operations intensify in a West Bank increasingly saturated with weapons, Palestinians’ frustrations there risk boiling over in ways that Abbas may not be able to control. If so, a second front of the current conflict could open up in the east, even as Lebanon-based Hezbollah weighs opening its own front in the north.