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People gather after Friday prayers during a protest in solidarity with Palestinians in Gaza, in Amman, Jordan, on April 4, 2025.
Jordan arrests 16 accused terrorists
Jordanian authorities announced on Wednesday the arrest of 16 people accused of planning terrorist attacks inside Jordan. The country’s security services say the suspects had been under surveillance since 2021, and half a dozen of them were reportedly members of the Muslim Brotherhood, a transnational Islamist organization.
The Brotherhood, which has links to the Islamic Action Front, the largest opposition group in Jordan’s parliament, denies any involvement, and insists that it is "committed to its peaceful approach" to Jordan’s politics.
The story highlights underlying tensions in Jordan. The monarchy is a key US ally and aid-recipient, and it made peace with Israel in 1994. But Israel’s assault on Gaza in response to Hamas’ October 7, 2023, attacks generated huge anger in Jordan, where nearly half of the country’s 11.5 million people are of Palestinian origin.
The Islamic Action Front’s ferocious criticism of both Israel and King Abdullah helped it to place first in last year’s election, though the country’s weak parliament remains dominated by pro-government parties.
The bottom line: Much media attention for Israel’s war with Hamas is focused on events in Gaza, but the conflict continues to reverberate around the Middle East. Jordan’s King Abdullah is walking a particularly fine line: how to project both stability and legitimacy as war rages across the border, and tensions run high at home.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu shake hands as they make joint statements to the press at the Prime Minister's office in Jerusalem on Feb. 16, 2025.
Gaza: The battle of the plans
When it comes to the future of Gaza, the only thing regional players agree on is that they don’t agree. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu supports US President Donald Trump’s vision of an American-controlled “Riviera of the Middle East,” relocating approximately 2 million Palestinians to neighboring countries – a move widely criticized as ethnic cleansing. Egypt is formulating a reconstruction plan that would rebuild Gaza’s infrastructure, exclude Hamas from governance, and ensure Palestinians remain on their land. Saudi Arabia, meanwhile, is developing an alternative strategy, advocating for Gaza’s reconstruction, a two-state solution, and no displacement of residents.
Who’s talking to whom? US Secretary of State Marco Rubio met with Netanyahuon Sunday and declared that Hamas “cannot continue as a military or government force … they must be eliminated.” On Monday, the Israeli cabinet met to review “phase two” of the ceasefire with Hamas, and Defense Minister Israel Katz began the process of creating an agency to facilitate the “voluntary” relocation of Palestinians from Gaza. And where would they go? Katz said the Israeli military should prepare land, sea, and air exit options for Gazans to move to “any country willing to accept them.”
Also on Monday,Rubio met with Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in Riyadh. A statement issued afterward by the palace made no reference to Gaza, noting only that the two men “reviewed aspects of the bilateral relations between the two friendly countries and ways to enhance and develop them in various fields.”
What’s next? On Feb. 20, Saudi will host a meeting with Egypt, Jordan, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates, to discuss Egypt’s proposal – and a “representative of Palestine” could be invited as well. The meeting is a precursor to a larger regional summit on Feb. 27, which may now be delayed for “logistical reasons.”President Donald Trump meets with Jordan's King Abdullah in the Oval Office at the White House in Washington, on Feb. 11, 2025.
Israel-Hamas ceasefire may hold. Trump’s Gaza plan? Not so much
While meeting with Jordan’s King Abdullah II at the White House on Tuesday, Trump reiterated his intention to “take” Gaza, displace its two million residents to nearby countries, and turn it into the “Riviera of the Middle East.”
Middle Eastern states are set to meet in Saudi Arabia to come up with their own plan, which they will present to Trump, but Abdullah was cautious and noncommittal while in the Oval. Later, in a social media post, the king said that during his meeting with Trump he “reiterated Jordan’s steadfast position against the displacement of Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank” and called this “the unified Arab position.”
Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sissi, meanwhile, said this week that he will not visit Washington for talks on the Middle East while Trump’s Gaza displacement plan is on the agenda.
But Trump has threatened to cut off crucial US aid to Egypt and Jordan unless they comply. Cairo and Amman each receive about $1.5 billion annually in military and other aid from Washington.
President Donald Trump, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Jordan's King Abdullah attend a meeting in the Oval Office at the White House in Washington, on Feb. 11, 2025.
Trump and Jordan talk Gaza, ceasefire hinges on hostage release
As for the rest of the population, the monarch said he would “wait for Egypt,” which has been leading negotiations so far, to weigh in. “I think we have to keep in mind there is a plan from Egypt and the Arab countries,” Abdullah said. “I think the point is, how do we make this work in a way that is good for everybody?”
Trump had threatened to withhold aid from Egypt and Jordan unless they receive Palestinians but suggested on Tuesday that “I do think we’re above that.” Trump’s vision for the territory remains unchanged, however: “[W]ith the United States being in control of that piece of land … you’re going to have stability in the Middle East for the first time.”
Meanwhile, in Israel, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s security cabinet unanimously endorsedTrump’s deadline for the release of the remaining hostages: The US president said Monday that all hostages must be returned by Saturday, or “Let all hell break out; Israel can override it.” Trump’s deadline came in response to Hamas saying it would delay the next hostage release, set for Saturday, and accusing Israel of violating the ceasefire.
Who’s gained ground – and who’s lost? According to Eurasia Middle East analyst Greg Brew, Jordan’s placating of Trump was “a win for Abdullah, who depends on US aid, and who has adamantly rejected the idea of displacement. This doesn't mean Trump has given up, only that we shouldn’t expect mass displacement of Gazans to Jordan any time soon.”
And despite Trump’s stark message about the hostages, Brew believes there is still room to maneuver. “It’s possible Hamas and Israel get through this latest impasse,” he says, “but it points to the fragile nature of the ceasefire and the unpredictable role Trump is playing.”
Demonstrators take part in a march in support of Palestinians in Gaza and to salute the slain Jordanian who shot and killed three Israeli civilians, according to the Israeli authorities, at the Allenby Bridge border crossing in the occupied West Bank, in Amman, Jordan September 8, 2024.
Israel’s Jordan and Lebanon borders see new security threats
A Jordanian gunman on Sundaykilled three Israeli guards at the Allenby Bridge, the border crossing between the West Bank and Jordan. The shooter, 39-year-old Maher Ziab Hussein al-Jazi, was shot dead by security forces. The attack was the first of its kind since the Hamas attacks of Oct. 7.
Jordan’s government is investigating the incident, while Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahusaid it was a “hard day” and sent condolences to the victims’ families. Hamashas not claimed responsibility for the attack, but called it a “natural response” to the war in Gaza.
In the Jordanian capital of Amman,hundreds of people took to the streets to celebrate the attack. Israeli authorities closed the crossing after the incident but plan to reopen it on Monday. A permanent closure would cause economic hardship on both sides of the border, as dozens of trailers cross daily from Jordan supplying goods to both the occupied West Bank and Israeli markets.
Fears of escalation have largely focused on Lebanon until now. Kuwaiti newspaper Al-Jarida reported on Sunday thatUS officials have proposed a land swap between Lebanon and Israel to end border conflicts and resolve ongoing disputes. The plan would recognize “Point B1,” the westernmost border point of the “Blue Line,” as part of Lebanon, patrolled by UN forces. It would also preserve the territorial integrity of Kibbutz Misgav Am in Israel in exchange for a land swap equal to twice its size of the kibbutz.
We’re watching to see if there is any official confirmation of the proposal – and whether it has a chance of succeeding.
PA via Reuters The Princess of Wales attends Trooping the Colour, London.
Hard Numbers: Kate steps out, Wash your hands in Tokyo, Hajj heat proves deadly, Sudan’s towns being burned, LA wildfire scorches acres
75: King Charles III celebrated his 75th birthday (actually Nov. 14) with the traditional “Trooping of the Colours” ceremony and birthday parade on Saturday — but it was Kate Middleton, the Princess of Wales, who stole the show with her first public appearance in months. Both Kate and Charles have been dealing with cancer diagnoses, and the princess recently said she expects a few more months of treatment.
977: Japanese health authorities are raising the alarm over an alarming spike in patients with a “flesh-eating bacteria” that can kill within 48 hours if left untreated, with 977 cases reported between January and June. That’s as many as were reported in all of 2023, and with a mortality rate of around 30%, doctors are urging people to wash their hands carefully as the best first line of defense.
14: At least 14 Jordanian pilgrims have perished during the Hajj in Saudi Arabia, and at least another 17 are missing as an intense heatwave has made the annual religious event riskier than usual. Temperatures in Mecca are expected to reach 116 degrees Fahrenheit (47 C) on Monday.
50: New analysis by the Centre for Information Resilience of NASA satellite images shows that the parties in Sudan’s ongoing civil war have deliberately burned at least 50 villages, and possibly as many as 235, largely in the Darfur region. The Rapid Support Forces have been systematically targeting Black ethnicities in the region, particularly the Masalit people, and setting fire to villages as part of a strategy of ethnic cleansing.
10,000: Speaking of fires, a wildfire has blazed over 10,000 acres near Los Angeles, forcing the evacuation of 1,200 people from the Hungry Valley recreation area. The inferno was not contained at the time of writing, and authorities say hot, dry winds are hampering efforts to combat it.Israel's Iron Dome anti-missile system intercepts rockets launched from Lebanon towards Israel over the Israeli Lebanese border, as seen from northern Israel, April 12, 2024.
Iran strikes Israel. How will Netanyahu respond?
On Saturday, Iran launched roughly 300 drones and missiles at Israel in retaliation for Israel’s April 1 bombing of the Iranian consulate in Syria. Some 99% of Iranian projectiles were destroyed by a combination of Israel’s Iron Dome defense system, US firepower, and assistance from Britain, Germany, and reportedly Jordan and Saudi Arabia. Israel suffered minimal damage and no casualties.
The question now is what comes next, for the region, the Israel-Hamas war, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and the world’s great powers?
The region
The slow-motion nature of the attack, which gave Israel and its allies hours to prepare, led some analysts to call itmore symbolic than serious. However, it allowed Iran to gauge Israel’s capabilities, see who would come to the Jewish state’s aid, and learn how other regional powers and groups would respond to an Iranian barrage.
Both Jordan and Saudi Arabia came to Israel’s defense, according to Israeli military intelligence. The two monarchies both have close ties to the US, Jordan shares a border with Israel, and there is no love lost between Iran’s Shi’a fundamentalist government and the Saudi Sunni monarchy and religious authorities.
But according toMasoud Mostajabi, deputy director of the Middle East Programs at the Atlantic Council, “… if tonight's attacks escalate into a wider Israel-Iran conflict, regional actors perceived as defenders of Israel may find themselves targeted and dragged into the regional conflagration.”
What might Israel do?
US President Joe Biden wants Bibi to “take the win” and not retaliate, but Israel could use the attack as a reason to bomb Iran’s nuclear program or other Iranian military installations.
Netanyahu’s cabinet is divided. Hardliners are calling for a tough response, with National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir saying Israel should “go crazy.” Netanyahu rival Benny Gantzsaid Israel will “exact a price from Iran in a way and time that suits us.” And Defense Minister Yoav Gallant says Israel has the opportunityto form a strategic alliance with nations, including the United States and Germany.
According to Hebrew-language media reports, the security cabinet has authorized the war cabinet – whose only voting members are Gantz, Netanyahu, and Gallant – to ultimately make the decision. A possible clue to that response came Sunday as Gantz declared that Israel must strengthen the “strategic alliance and the regional cooperation” that allowed it to overcome Iran’s attack.
“Israel is currently weighing options. Strikes on Iran directly are possible, but it appears that the war cabinet is divided over how to respond,” says Eurasia Group analyst Greg Brew. “Bombing Iran in response to Saturday's attack would likely escalate the confrontation and compel Iran to attack again – this time with less warning and stage-managing.”
The Israel-Hamas War and Bibi’s future
Iran has warned that attacks by its allies won’t stop until the war in Gaza ends – but that ending is still nowhere in sight. On Sunday,Hamas rejected the latest proposal for a deal presented a week ago by mediators Qatar, Egypt, and the United States.
According to Eurasia Group and GZERO Media President Ian Bremmer, the Iranian attack is “going to be a big distraction away from the war in Gaza. [This] doesn't mean that Israel suddenly loses its isolation or wins the PR war globally,” he says, “And there's also less pressure for Netanyahu to be forced out domestically in the near future.”
Great powers unite
The US made it clear that it wants no further escalation. Bidenalso told Netanyahu that the US would not participate in any offensive operations against Iran.
The G7 issueda statement affirming their support for Israel and condemning Iran, saying that an uncontrollable regional escalation “must be avoided.” They demanded that Iran and its proxies cease their attacks and “stand ready to take further measures now and in response to further destabilizing initiatives.”
Iransaid a “new equation” in its adversarial relationship with Israel had been opened, and warned of a “much bigger” assault on the country should Netanyahu retaliate to Saturday’s assault.
WhileBremmer does not see this leading to World War III, he says the “potential that this war expands and eventually does drag in the United States and Iran more directly is also going up. ”President Joe Biden attends the return of the remains of the three slain US soldiers — Sgt. Breonna Alexsondria Moffett, Sgt. William Jerome Rivers, and Sgt. Kennedy Ladon Sanders — at Dover Air Force Base on Friday.
US strikes back after deadly drone attack
Nearly a week after a drone attack killed three American service members at a small US base in Jordan, the US responded late Friday by launching strikes against more than 85 targets in Syria and Iraq. The Pentagon blames the Iran-backed Islamic Resistance in Iraq for the deadly drone attack.
The strikes hit command and intel centers and storage facilities affiliated with the Quds Force, a unit of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, and local Iran-supported militias.
Tehran condemned the US strikes, calling them a “strategic error.” Baghdad said the attacks killed at least 16 people, including civilians. Syria, meanwhile, criticized the US and said the attacks would “fuel conflict in the Middle East in a very dangerous way.” The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a Britain-based watchdog, said the strikes in Syria had killed 23 pro-Iran fighters, but no civilians.
The strikes came hours after President Joe Biden, first lady Dr. Jill Biden, and US Defense Sec. Lloyd Austin attended the return of the remains of the three slain US soldiers — Sgt. Breonna Alexsondria Moffett, Sgt. William Jerome Rivers, and Sgt. Kennedy Ladon Sanders — at Dover Air Force Base on Friday.
Biden had threatened to deliver a “tiered response” over time, so these strikes are expected to be just the first salvo of a broader campaign. We’ll be watching for Washington's next moves — and for any signs of escalation in the form of responses from Iran, Iraq, or Syria.