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Israel's Iron Dome anti-missile system intercepts rockets launched from Lebanon towards Israel over the Israeli Lebanese border, as seen from northern Israel, April 12, 2024.
Iran strikes Israel. How will Netanyahu respond?
On Saturday, Iran launched roughly 300 drones and missiles at Israel in retaliation for Israel’s April 1 bombing of the Iranian consulate in Syria. Some 99% of Iranian projectiles were destroyed by a combination of Israel’s Iron Dome defense system, US firepower, and assistance from Britain, Germany, and reportedly Jordan and Saudi Arabia. Israel suffered minimal damage and no casualties.
The question now is what comes next, for the region, the Israel-Hamas war, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and the world’s great powers?
The region
The slow-motion nature of the attack, which gave Israel and its allies hours to prepare, led some analysts to call itmore symbolic than serious. However, it allowed Iran to gauge Israel’s capabilities, see who would come to the Jewish state’s aid, and learn how other regional powers and groups would respond to an Iranian barrage.
Both Jordan and Saudi Arabia came to Israel’s defense, according to Israeli military intelligence. The two monarchies both have close ties to the US, Jordan shares a border with Israel, and there is no love lost between Iran’s Shi’a fundamentalist government and the Saudi Sunni monarchy and religious authorities.
But according toMasoud Mostajabi, deputy director of the Middle East Programs at the Atlantic Council, “… if tonight's attacks escalate into a wider Israel-Iran conflict, regional actors perceived as defenders of Israel may find themselves targeted and dragged into the regional conflagration.”
What might Israel do?
US President Joe Biden wants Bibi to “take the win” and not retaliate, but Israel could use the attack as a reason to bomb Iran’s nuclear program or other Iranian military installations.
Netanyahu’s cabinet is divided. Hardliners are calling for a tough response, with National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir saying Israel should “go crazy.” Netanyahu rival Benny Gantzsaid Israel will “exact a price from Iran in a way and time that suits us.” And Defense Minister Yoav Gallant says Israel has the opportunityto form a strategic alliance with nations, including the United States and Germany.
According to Hebrew-language media reports, the security cabinet has authorized the war cabinet – whose only voting members are Gantz, Netanyahu, and Gallant – to ultimately make the decision. A possible clue to that response came Sunday as Gantz declared that Israel must strengthen the “strategic alliance and the regional cooperation” that allowed it to overcome Iran’s attack.
“Israel is currently weighing options. Strikes on Iran directly are possible, but it appears that the war cabinet is divided over how to respond,” says Eurasia Group analyst Greg Brew. “Bombing Iran in response to Saturday's attack would likely escalate the confrontation and compel Iran to attack again – this time with less warning and stage-managing.”
The Israel-Hamas War and Bibi’s future
Iran has warned that attacks by its allies won’t stop until the war in Gaza ends – but that ending is still nowhere in sight. On Sunday,Hamas rejected the latest proposal for a deal presented a week ago by mediators Qatar, Egypt, and the United States.
According to Eurasia Group and GZERO Media President Ian Bremmer, the Iranian attack is “going to be a big distraction away from the war in Gaza. [This] doesn't mean that Israel suddenly loses its isolation or wins the PR war globally,” he says, “And there's also less pressure for Netanyahu to be forced out domestically in the near future.”
Great powers unite
The US made it clear that it wants no further escalation. Bidenalso told Netanyahu that the US would not participate in any offensive operations against Iran.
The G7 issueda statement affirming their support for Israel and condemning Iran, saying that an uncontrollable regional escalation “must be avoided.” They demanded that Iran and its proxies cease their attacks and “stand ready to take further measures now and in response to further destabilizing initiatives.”
Iransaid a “new equation” in its adversarial relationship with Israel had been opened, and warned of a “much bigger” assault on the country should Netanyahu retaliate to Saturday’s assault.
WhileBremmer does not see this leading to World War III, he says the “potential that this war expands and eventually does drag in the United States and Iran more directly is also going up. ”President Joe Biden attends the return of the remains of the three slain US soldiers — Sgt. Breonna Alexsondria Moffett, Sgt. William Jerome Rivers, and Sgt. Kennedy Ladon Sanders — at Dover Air Force Base on Friday.
US strikes back after deadly drone attack
Nearly a week after a drone attack killed three American service members at a small US base in Jordan, the US responded late Friday by launching strikes against more than 85 targets in Syria and Iraq. The Pentagon blames the Iran-backed Islamic Resistance in Iraq for the deadly drone attack.
The strikes hit command and intel centers and storage facilities affiliated with the Quds Force, a unit of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, and local Iran-supported militias.
Tehran condemned the US strikes, calling them a “strategic error.” Baghdad said the attacks killed at least 16 people, including civilians. Syria, meanwhile, criticized the US and said the attacks would “fuel conflict in the Middle East in a very dangerous way.” The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a Britain-based watchdog, said the strikes in Syria had killed 23 pro-Iran fighters, but no civilians.
The strikes came hours after President Joe Biden, first lady Dr. Jill Biden, and US Defense Sec. Lloyd Austin attended the return of the remains of the three slain US soldiers — Sgt. Breonna Alexsondria Moffett, Sgt. William Jerome Rivers, and Sgt. Kennedy Ladon Sanders — at Dover Air Force Base on Friday.
Biden had threatened to deliver a “tiered response” over time, so these strikes are expected to be just the first salvo of a broader campaign. We’ll be watching for Washington's next moves — and for any signs of escalation in the form of responses from Iran, Iraq, or Syria.
US-Iran tensions escalate after deadly drone attack
Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: Hi everybody, Ian Bremmer here and a Quick Take to kick off your week right in midtown Manhattan, New York City. And the Middle East war continuing to expand as we have been convinced it would. This was this weekend, really the nightmare scenario for the Americans that given all of the Iranian proxy attacks against shipping and against US troops in the region, but eventually they would get through and kill some.
And that is exactly what happened. Three American servicemen killed, dozens injured, and now the Americans have to respond. That response will almost certainly be against Iranian forces to some degree directly. Whether or not that means hitting Iranian territory, that's an open question. But even though the Iranian government denied it, the United States has been very clear, “these are Iran supported attacks.”And while I'm fairly comfortable saying that the Iranians didn't likely order these attacks directly, they're certainly comfortable with the fact that they're going on. They're providing real time intelligence to the groups. They're providing real time weapons to the groups. So it's not like they had nothing to do with it.
Now, the United States doesn't want war with Iran, you know, no holds barred across the region. The Iranians don't want war with the US. But that doesn't mean war is not going to happen. And we're certainly taking a step closer to that right now. Will American strikes be sufficient to stop Iranian proxies from hitting the United States? That's very hard to imagine. It might be uncomfortable with it, but I can't see the Iranians cutting off all of these groups just on the basis of the likely American strikes that are coming next, which means even though we're escalating, we're still not yet at sort of a place where anyone is panicking enough to start restraining and reining in the continued escalation that we're seeing.
The other side of this is we do see the United States working very hard with Qatar and the Israelis to try to facilitate a breakthrough on the hostages. And the Israelis are willing to engage in ways that they were not, even a couple of weeks ago, willing to take a deal that would not be as attractive for them. For example, a longer ceasefire in the strikes in Gaza in return for the hostages being released. In part, the Hamas has been unwilling to engage and has been unwilling to give very much. But that could change if the Iranian government now starts pressing them hard. And that is where we could see a bit of a breakthrough, especially if the United States response is serious to what we've just seen over the weekend.
So are we going to see the Iranians stopping support of the proxies in the region, stopping the attacks? No. But might we see a temporary ceasefire and a breakthrough on the hostage side? That looks more likely to me in the coming days and weeks than it was last week. So, you know, it's dangerous environment. We're continuing to see escalation, but there's certainly lots of moving pieces and not everybody wants to see war.
That's it for me. I'll talk to you all real soon.
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping attend a reception at the Kremlin in Moscow, Russia March 21, 2023.
What We're Watching: Russia strikes Ukraine amid dueling wartime trips, Boris Johnson’s ‘Partygate’ showdown, Israeli settlements U-turn
After Xi-Putin summit, Moscow strikes Ukraine
Over the past few days, Vladimir Putin pulled out all the stops to entertain his "good old friend" Xi Jinping in Moscow, during what was perhaps the most geopolitically significant bilateral summit of the year so far.
Seven-course dinner — check. Insanely long red carpet at the Kremlin — check. Putin doing Xi the rare courtesy of showing up on time — check.
But beyond the pomp, ничего особенного (nothing much). The summit ended with a joint press conference featuring boilerplate statements about Sino-Russian cooperation. There was no mention of China potentially supplying arms to Russia, and no call for a ceasefire in Ukraine, although Putin did say that Xi's peace plan could be a first step toward a negotiated settlement “once the West and Kyiv are ready for it."
But then right after Xi's visit on Wednesday, the Kremlin launched fresh drone and missile strikes on Ukrainian cities, killing at least four people in a residential area outside Kyiv.
While President Volodymyr Zelensky has so far tried to remain open to Beijing's intervention, he tweeted that "every time someone tries to hear the word 'peace' in Moscow, another order is given there for such criminal strikes."
Is Putin feeling emboldened? From Putin's perspective, a visit from Xi, who’s been something of a homebody himself since the pandemic, lets Putin show that although the US and its allies have blackballed him, he is still far from isolated globally – and that the Russia-China friendship “without limits” is an axis of power Washington has to reckon with.
We're watching to see how — or if — Beijing responds to the latest onslaught that comes on the heels of Xi's whirlwind diplomacy.
Kishida in Kyiv
All things considered, it’s not surprising that Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida went to Ukraine to visit President Volodymyr Zelensky on Tuesday. Kishida was the only leader of a G7 nation that hadn’t yet made the trip, and Japan is chairing the group’s summit in Hiroshima in May. But it is striking when he chose to visit and where he traveled while there.
Arriving in Kyiv on a day when Chinese President Xi Jinping was visiting Vladimir Putin in Moscow was striking. Kishida also visited a mass grave in the town of Bucha to pay respects to the Ukrainian victims of alleged Russian war crimes, offering a none-too-subtle comment on Putin’s recent indictment by the International Criminal Court.
Japan’s foreign ministry said the trip underscored Kishida’s "absolute rejection of Russia's one-sided change to the status quo by invasion and force.” It also follows last week's dramatic breakthrough in Japan’s relations with South Korea, another move signaling that, while Japan must continue to carefully balance its relations with China, Kishida will be more assertive and outspoken on foreign policy than most of Japan’s recent prime ministers.
Could this be the end for Boris Johnson?
Boris is back … in the news! On Wednesday, the former British PM will appear before the parliamentary Privileges Committee to determine whether he deliberately lied to parliament over the Partygate saga. Recap: That’s when Downing Street hosted a string of parties (including some attended by the PM) while millions of Britons were subject to strict COVID lockdowns.
What happens now? It’s up to the committee, made up of MPs from three political parties, to decide how to proceed. It could decide that Johnson didn’t mislead parliament, which is unlikely given the trail of evidence. But even if it judges that he did, punishments could vary. Best case scenario? He’s given a wrist slap. Worst case? He’s suspended from parliament.
But wait, there's more! If the suspension is for more than 10 days, it'll trigger a recall vote in Johnson's district, which only requires 10% of ballots to pass. And that in turn will be followed by a by-election for the same seat ... in which Boris can still run!
What does this mean for the Tories? The rank-and-file is divided between diehard Boris fans, who want Johnson to make another bid for the top job, and those who think he’s a political liability. Either way, it’s bad timing for PM Rishi Sunak, who is trying very hard to convince Britons that the wildly unpopular Conservative Party is more than an agent of chaos.
Israeli government’s settlement policy shift
The far-right Israeli government, a magnet for controversy in recent weeks, has just reversed a 2005 law that ordered the dismantling of four settlements in the northern West Bank.
The Israeli army will no longer have the power to forcibly remove settlers from these areas. (In 2005, former PM Ariel Sharon unilaterally disengaged from settlements in the Gaza Strip and the northern West Bank in a move that right-wing ideologues deemed an injustice.)
Tuesday’s move – which the US said it was “extremely troubled” by before the State Department summoned Israel's ambassador to express its dismay – will legalize construction at these outposts, one of which had previously been deemed private Palestinian land by Israel’s High Court. Many right-wing and religious Jews believe that the West Bank is part of greater Israel, according to the Old Testament, and that Jews have a responsibility to settle on the land. Conversely, land seized by Israel during the Six-Day War in 1967 is deemed occupied Palestinian territory, according to international law.
Critics say the recent government decision will lead to more violence in the West Bank and is a step towards illegal annexation.
This comes after Israel’s Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich created a firestorm this week by saying “there is no such thing as a Palestinian people” while standing in front of a map of so-called greater Israel that included … Jordan. (The Hashemite Kingdom, with which Israel has enjoyed a cold peace since 1994, was not pleased.)
Amid fears that the government’s actions are endangering the Abraham Accords, a senior delegation from the United Arab Emirates is set to meet in Jerusalem with President Isaac Herzog to voice its concerns over recent events.
Russian President Vladimir Putin meets with local officials in Sevastopol, Crimea March 18, 2023.
What We’re Watching: Putin in Mariupol, Xi in Moscow, Israeli-Palestinian talks, Trump fearing arrest, Kosovo-Serbia agreement
A defiant Putin heads to Mariupol
Vladimir Putin visited the port city of Mariupol in eastern Ukraine on Sunday, two days after the International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant for both him and Russia’s children’s commissioner for the mass abduction of at least 1,400 Ukrainian children. The court claims that some Ukrainian orphans have been forcibly resettled with Russian families, while others were sent to “re-education camps” in Russia with their parents' consent but have not been returned.
This is the closest Putin has gotten to the front lines since the war began in Feb. 2022. The strategic city of Mariupol, which became a symbol of Ukraine’s protracted struggle after Russian forces started pounding the city at the start of the war, was taken last May in a brutal offensive that killed at least 20,000 people.
Putin’s Mariupol visit came a day after his stop in Crimea, where he marked the ninth anniversary of Russia's annexation of the territory — and both publicized visits likely served as symbolic shows of defiance against both the ICC and the West.
While Putin is unlikely to be in the dock anytime soon, the ICC warrant is a major geopolitical blow for the Kremlin. It increases Putin's physical isolation – Germany, for example, has already said he’ll be arrested if he visits -- and it's less than ideal for him to be labeled a war criminal as he tries to keep nonaligned countries onside.
Xi's choice
China’s Xi Jinping on Monday touched down in Moscow for his first trip since Russia invaded Ukraine. The stakes, to put it mildly, are pretty high.
As the US continues to fret that China might abandon its so-called "pro-Russia neutrality” in the conflict to arm the Russians, Xi says he only wants peace. Likely emboldened by the success of China's role in mediating a recent détente between longtime foes Iran and Saudi Arabia, Beijing sees an opening to cast itself as a global peacemaker in Ukraine. But Xi's 12-point peace plan was rejected outright by NATO, while Ukraine says it is open to Chinese mediation but will not compromise with Russia on its territorial integrity. (This week, China's leader also intends to speak with Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky for the first time since the war started.)
And what about Vladimir Putin? Before Xi's arrival, the Russian president put on a show of affection for his "good old friend." After all, Xi has met Putin more times than any other world leader since he came to power in 2013. But as the war drags on with no end in sight, Putin knows that Xi must now decide whether to risk a full-blown proxy conflict with the US to help Russia win at all costs ... or rather give Putin an off-ramp to end the war the Ukrainians will accept.
Israeli-Palestinian de-escalation talks
With Ramadan starting later this week, Palestinian and Israeli mediators met on Sunday in the Egyptian town of Sharm el-Sheikh – along with Jordanian, Egyptian, and US representatives – to try and de-escalate tensions in Israel and the West Bank.
After talks in Jordan last month failed to make progress, this weekend's summit aimed to halt the cyclical flare-ups at flashpoint sites that Jerusalem has seen during Ramadan and Passover in recent years.
Both sides agreed on Sunday to set up a mechanism to thwart violence. But reports of a shooting near the town of Huwara in the northern West Bank, which gravely injured one Israeli, cast doubt on the success of the talks. Indeed, it’s the same town where two Jews were killed in a Palestinian terror attack several weeks ago, prompting Jewish settlers to pillage the village and burn scores of Palestinian homes in retaliation.
Crucially, the most recent shooting came after reports that a senior member of Palestinian Islamic Jihad was assassinated in Syria. Still, Israel committed “to stop discussion of any new settlement units for four months.” But that doesn’t necessarily mean much: The same sentiment appeared in a communique after last month’s meeting, but PM Benjamine Netanyahu then came out and said that his right-wing government was not committed to a settlement freeze.
Meanwhile, inside Israel, nationwide protests against the government’s proposed judicial reforms, now in their eleventh week, show no signs of abating. In a phone call with his Israeli counterpart on Sunday, President Biden too expressed deep concern over the judicial overhaul.
Will Trump be arrested?
ALL CAPS are back! Taking to social media on Saturday, former President Donald Trump called on his supporters to take to the streets, claiming that he would be indicted by a grand jury in New York, and arrested, in the coming days.
Writing on Truth Social – his own social media platform – Trump said that he’ll likely be detained on Tuesday on charges linked to a 2016 payment to an adult film star in violation of campaign finance rules.
Though it’s widely assumed that an indictment against Trump, who recently turned down an opportunity to testify before a grand jury, could be imminent, the Manhattan district attorney’s office has remained mum on details.
Still, the DA is clearly worried about the fallout and has urged staff not to be intimidated by the former president’s social media shtick. New York City police are also on high alert to ensure the DA's office is protected.
We’re watching to see how other Republican presidential candidates react to the developments. While Trump’s legal woes could help his opponents, dissing the former president might not land well with much of the GOP base.
Kosovo and Serbia take the next step
Serbia and Kosovo reached a tentative agreement on Saturday to implement an EU-backed deal to normalize relations after years of tensions threatened to reignite war. Sound convoluted? Well, it is.
The two sides began negotiating with the EU shortly after Kosovo unilaterally declared independence from Serbia in 2008. (For background on the conflict and where things currently stand, see our explainer here.)
While EU foreign policy chief Joseph Borrell said a deal had been reached, both sides said big disagreements remain. Essentially, the two sides agreed they would maintain “good neighborly relations” and recognize the other’s state symbols – including license plates! Crucially, it would prevent Serbia from blocking Kosovo's membership in the UN and other international organizations.
Why now? Both countries are vying to join the European Union, and the bloc has made it clear that cannot happen without the normalization of ties. What’s more, maintaining stability in the Balkans has renewed importance since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
While this is a big step, critics say that without full mutual recognition, implementation – and adherence – of this EU-backed deal could be a long shot.
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman meets Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi upon his arrival in Cairo.
What We’re Watching: MBS on tour, Lithuania vs. Russia, Spain’s moderate swing
MBS makes BFFs ahead of Biden visit
With barely a month until his controversial summit with President Joe Biden, the Saudi crown prince is on a regional tour this week to show that he’s hardly the “pariah” that America’s president once promised to make him. In Jordan, Mohammed bin Salman will look to patch up a monarchy-to-monarchy relationship that became strained last year over allegations of Saudi involvement in a plot to overthrow King Abdullah II. The Jordanians hope MBS’s visit leads to a resumption of lavish Saudi financial support. In Egypt, Crown Prince Mohammed will be highlighting Riyadh’s tight relationship with the Arab world’s most populous country. Egyptian strongman Abdel Fattah el-Sisi enjoys strong backing from the Saudis, who have gifted or invested billions of dollars in Egypt in recent years. But the most significant stop on MBS’s tour will be in Turkey, where always-dicey relations between the regional rivals nearly broke off entirely over the Saudi government’s 2018 murder of Saudi dissident journalist Jamal Khashoggi in Istanbul. But with Turkey looking for financial help to right a listing economy, and MBS looking to shore up ties with a mercurial member of NATO, it seems that bygones are bygones.
Kaliningrad set to be next flashpoint?
Leaders of NATO countries have taken extraordinary steps to ensure that Russia’s war against Ukraine doesn’t extend into NATO territory. So far, they’ve been successful. But the Russian government says it’s furious that Lithuania – a former Soviet Republic that’s now a NATO and EU member – is blocking Russian goods shipments to Kaliningrad, a Russian exclave set between Lithuania and Poland that’s hundreds of miles away from the rest of Russia. Kaliningrad, home to about 1 million people, is a strategically important spot. It’s home to Russia’s Baltic Fleet headquarters and, though Russia denies it, there may also be nuclear-capable Iskander missiles stored there. Lithuania is now blocking rail supplies from Russian territory to Kaliningrad, which Russia claims is a violation of international law. Lithuania says it’s simply enforcing an EU ban on the transport through EU territory of a range of Russian products, from heavy machinery to luxury goods. If Lithuania keeps it up, Russia would be forced to ship the equipment to Kaliningrad’s port on the Baltic Sea. But Moscow warns that Lithuania will face “serious” consequences unless it allows the trains to pass. The EU has backed Lithuania’s refusal to resume the rail shipments, so it’s up to President Vladimir Putin to decide how high tensions will rise.
Spain swings to the center
In late 2018, an election in the southern region of Andalucía upended Spain's politics after Vox became the first far-right party to win representation since the late 1970s. Vox later exploded nationwide and is now the third-largest force in parliament. But on Sunday, another vote in the same bellwether region, Spain's largest and most-populated, saw the traditional center-right People’s Party secure an outright majority for the first time, while Vox fell short of expectations. What's more, the ruling center-left PSOE party, which until recently dominated Andalusian politics, got its worst result ever there. The PP has been riding high in the polls since it picked the moderate Alberto Núñez Feijóo to lead the party following a messy internal crisis, and now its odds of returning to national power in 18 months are looking good. Amid an increasingly polarized political environment and rising inflation, Feijóo is pitching himself as an anti-populist nerd to voters fed up with parties that won’t talk to each other, and as a pair of safe hands to manage the economy in turbulent times. Will making Spanish politics boring again take him all the way to La Moncloa?
Johnson meets Swedish PM Magdalena Andersson in Stockholm.
What We're Watching: UK-Nordic security pact, Biden-ASEAN summit, King Abdullah II at the White House
Boris Johnson embraces NATO-bound Nordics
UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson signed security declarations on Wednesday with Sweden’s Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson and Finland’s President Sauli Niinistö. These documents are promises that if either Nordic country is attacked, Britain will come to its aid. In return, Sweden and Finland promise the same support for the United Kingdom. Asked for specifics, Johnson said his government would offer “whatever Sweden requested" and would “share more intelligence, bolster military exercises, and further joint development of technology.” On specific weapons, the UK PM said that would be determined by what was requested. These are simply political promises, not security guarantees of the kind NATO membership offers. But this show of solidarity comes at a sensitive moment; Finland and Sweden are widely expected to announce their application for NATO membership in the coming days, and their governments have warned that the “gray zone” period between formal application and certain acceptance will leave them vulnerable to various forms of Russian aggression. Meanwhile, Russia’s offensive in Ukraine continues, and US intelligence now believes Moscow is planning for a long war with intentions of achieving “goals beyond the Donbas.”
Will ASEAN side with Biden?
On Thursday, US President Joe Biden kicks off a two-day summit in Washington with eight leaders of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. There’s one big item on the agenda: China. Biden will try to persuade the guests to take his side on the US-China rivalry, but almost all of them will surely say, like Singaporean PM Lee Hsien Loong has, that it’s an impossible choice. ASEAN has long bickered with China over a range of issues, mainly Beijing's claim to the entire South China Sea, disputed by Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Vietnam. But China has too much economic and military clout in Southeast Asia for ASEAN to openly antagonize Beijing — no matter how much investment and security cooperation Washington offers. Since the bloc will likely meet Biden's overtures with its usual bromides, perhaps the most interesting thing about this summit is two no-shows: Myanmar and the Philippines. Myanmar's junta was not invited because the US still recognizes the previous democratic government the generals toppled in February 2021, and outgoing Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte didn't RSVP because he's about to be replaced by Ferdinand Marcos Jr., who is less openly pro-China than Duterte.
King Abdullah set to visit White House
Jordan’s King Abdullah II will meet with President Joe Biden at the White House Friday for their second face-to-face meeting since Biden came to office. The two are likely to discuss bilateral relations, with Jordan emphasizing the need for ongoing US aid to help its battered economy (the US is the single biggest donor to Jordan, providing $1.65 billion in the 2021 fiscal year). They’re also bound to focus on the recent uptick in violence in Jerusalem, particularly at the Al-Aqsa Mosque, which Jewish Israelis call the Temple Mount. Jordan is the site’s custodian and is responsible for its day-to-day administration. Amid recent clashes between Palestinian worshippers and Israeli police, Amman requested additional Waqf monitoring at the site, and Israeli authorities agreed. Still, the Jordanian government, which usually maintains warmish ties with Jerusalem, accused Israel of provocations against Muslim worshippers. (Israel claims that it was responding to rock-throwing and that it has maintained the status quo, which mandates that Jews cannot pray at the Temple Mount, despite it being the holiest site in Judaism.) Indeed, the security situation in Jerusalem and the occupied West Bank remains precarious, and King Abdullah may politely request that the Biden administration – distracted by the onslaught in Ukraine – pay more attention.
What We're Watching: Jordanians vote, Trump's DOD shakeup, Russian navy in Sudan
Jordan's lackluster election: Amid a massive surge in coronavirus cases, Jordanians headed to the polls this week to elect 130 members to the lower house of parliament. Of more than 4.6 million eligible voters, only 29 percent showed up, the lowest turnout in many years, largely due to fear of COVID-19, a deepening economic crisis, and disillusionment with Jordan's unrepresentative political process. The system favors pro-monarchy tribal candidates and cronies loyal to the all-powerful King Abdullah II, who appoints all Senate members and can unilaterally dissolve parliament. This time, the main opposition party, linked to the Islamist Muslim Brotherhood, won only 10 seats, five less than in 2016, while women candidates reaped only 15 seats, largely because of a quota system. The Jordanian Kingdom has long been accused of overseeing an electoral system that under-represents cities that are Muslim Brotherhood strongholds, favoring more sparsely populated cities that support the Hashemite monarchy. Indeed, the Jordanian government has its work cut out for it amid a surging pandemic and worsening economic crisis — on top of the burden of providing refuge for some 650,000 Syrians.
Trump's DOD moves: It's been a busy week at the Pentagon. First, President Trump fired US Defense Secretary Mark Esper, before proceeding to dismiss other career staffers at the Department of Defense, replacing them with Trump loyalists. The motives for the shakeup during a lame-duck presidency are unclear. Initially, some analysts surmised that the president was trying to ensure that the US military would have his back if he refused to vacate the White House when Joe Biden is sworn in on January 20, 2021. But now some experts are suggesting that what Trump really wants is to expedite the withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan. Trump, according to that hypothesis, was frustrated at Esper and the generals for pushing back against the president's longtime plan to get all the troops home by Christmas amid rising intra-Afghan violence.
Russian navy in... Sudan? Russia is planning to build a navy base in Sudan — its first in Africa since the end of the Cold War — to gain access to the Red Sea. In exchange, the Sudanese will get Russian weapons and air support for its navy. The deal comes as President Vladimir Putin is seeking to expand Russia's military footprint across the continent by building up to six bases in African countries. Putin's strategy is a simple one: shore up authoritarian regimes that are friendly to Moscow, including with Russian mercenaries to fight on their behalf. Interestingly, the Sudan deal is going ahead despite the fact that it was approved three years ago by Omar al-Bashir — the country's former dictator who was deposed in 2019 — but didn't go through because al-Bashir was worried about being perceived as cozying up to Moscow and peeving the US. Sudan is now on the cusp of being removed from the US' state sponsor of terrorism list, allowing it to access financial markets. Is Khartoum hedging its bets by playing both sides?