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A missile is launched from a warship during the US-led coalition operation against military targets in Yemen on Jan. 12, 2024.
US and UK hit Houthi targets in Yemen
The US and UK launched strikes against military facilities in Houthi-controlled Yemen on Thursday in response to the rebel group’s attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea. The Houthis, who have carried out at least 27 attacks since November, since November, claim to be acting on behalf of Palestinians in response to Israel’s war against Hamas.
The Biden administration had warned of severe consequences if the Houthis did not halt the attacks. Thursday’s strikes, the first by the US against the Houthis in Yemen since 2016, hit more than a dozen sites used by the Iran-backed militants in the capital Sanaa, the port of Hodeidah, Dhamar, as well as Saada in the northwest. The Houthis said 73 strikes killed five people.
“Today, at my direction, US military forces – together with the United Kingdom and with support from Australia, Bahrain, Canada, and the Netherlands – successfully conducted strikes against a number of targets in Yemen used by Houthi rebels to endanger freedom of navigation in one of the world’s most vital waterways,” President Joe Biden said in a statement.
The move represents “a substantial increase in the severity of Western response,” says Clayton Allen, Eurasia Group’s US director, “but will not likely have eliminated all, or even most, of the Houthis’ capabilities.”
Some analysts have pointed to Washington’s track record in the region, noting that strikes against the Houthis in 2016 for their attacks on US military vessels forced the militants to stand down. But some fear that Thursday’s strikes, which come amid US efforts to prevent a wider regional war in the Middle East, could also have the opposite effect.
“The strikes could serve to increase the risk of escalation, and it is unlikely that this was the final round of deterrent actions by the US and allies,” Allen adds.
AI explosion, elections, and wars: What to expect in 2024
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
What are the global ramifications of Red Sea shipping disruptions?
This is a lot of ships that are carrying a lot of goods that can't go through the Red Sea because the Houthis are hitting them. And so instead they're going around the Cape of Good Hope, which is South Africa. It's a lot longer and it's more expensive. You know, it's not really an impact on the markets in the sense that the goods are still getting through. So it's not like you're not getting your oil, you're not getting your commodities. It is going to hurt the Egyptian economy significantly because they're not getting that transit and the fees. It would benefit South Africa, but their ports are a huge mess. So, I mean, funnily enough, it's probably a benefit for like Namibia and Mozambique and we'll see for how long It lasts.
Was 2023 a good year for Vladimir Putin?
On balance, I would say no. I mean, you know, he had his former chef and his confidant and his paramilitary supporter, you know, Prigozhin with the coup against him and ended up dead. So that's not great. And that was a lot of money that worked for the Kremlin. And also, he's got 11 rounds of sanctions against him and half of his sovereign assets frozen by the Americans, by the Europeans, by the entire developed world. And, of course, he also had a huge hit to his human capital with not only a whole bunch of men getting ground down in the fight, but also a lot of them leaving because they don't want to get caught up. So the last couple of months have been good in the sense that they're not losing territory that they've taken from Ukraine. And so he can spin anything as a win because he's a dictator. But things look horrible for Putin, irrespective of the nature of the fight with Russia-Ukraine.
As 2023 comes to a close, what are the biggest stories to look ahead at in 2024?
Well, I mean, of course, all these elections happening in so many parts of the world. I mean, in India, in the European Union, in the United States, in Russia, of course, which is going to be a real nail biter. Who knows what could happen there. And then you have incredible transition of explosion for artificial intelligence impacting the way all of us live. Massive upside opportunities, massive downside disruptions and governance desperately trying to catch up. Those seem to be some of the biggest things, not to mention the fact that we've got a bunch of big wars going on. And of course, the nature of the Chinese economy, a lot of stuff to focus on.
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Ian Explains: How Hezbollah became so powerful in Lebanon
Tensions on Israel's northern border with Lebanon are heating up amid daily exchanges of rocket fire between Israeli Defense Forces and Hezbollah fighters. Fears are growing that Israel's war with Hamas in Gaza could spread to a broader regional conflict because Hezbollah is Iran's most powerful proxy force. On Ian Explains, Ian Bremmer unpacks Hezbollah's role within Lebanon, its history of fighting Israel in the south, and how Iran uses the militant group to further its interests in the region.
The potential for an all-out conflict between Hezbollah and Israel would be absolutely devastating for Lebanon, which is already reeling from an economic collapse, a refugee crisis from the Syrian civil war, the deadly 2020 Port of Beirut explosion, and massive currency devaluation. Despite Iran and Israel's signals they don't want to see the Palestine conflict escalate throughout the region, proxy groups like Hezbollah are a way to engage indirectly. One faulty rocket or misinterpreted message could mean the simmering tensions in south Lebanon boil over into a second front.
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week at gzeromedia.com/gzeroworld or on US public television. Check local listings.
Iran thrives on Arab "misery," says expert Karim Sadjadpour
Whether it's Hamas in Gaza or Hezbollah in Lebanon or the Houthis in Yemen, how much control does Iran have over its proxy forces? According to Iran expert at the Carnegie Endowment for Peace, Karim Sadjadpour, Iran tends not to micromanage these groups. Iran may not typically give direct, day-to-day instructions but instead defer to these leaders to make their own decisions. However, Sadjadpour adds, on a broader level, Iran wields significant influence as they are often the primary source of funding and military support for these groups.
More importantly, when it comes to the people under the control of these proxy forces, whether they be Palestinian, Iraqi, Syrian, Yemeni or Lebanese, Iran doesn't care about their wellbeing. Sadjadpour emphasizes that we must distinguish between Iran being anti-Israel and genuinely pro-Palestinian, for instance. He recalls a conversation with an Iranian official who suggested that Iran benefits from the instability and conflict in the region, as it furthers their interests.
"Iran really benefits from the misery of these populations and these failing states, and they don't want to see these populations become prosperous" Sadjadpour tells Ian Bremmer in the latest episode of GZERO World. " And so in some ways, the more these populations experience conflict, whether it's, you know, conflict amongst themselves or direct conflict with Israel, Iran has tended to benefit from the despair of these Arab populations."
Watch the full interview: What’s Iran’s next move?
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week at gzeromedia.com/gzeroworld or on US public television. Check local listings.
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What’s Iran’s next move?
Remember that famous line from Bill Clinton’s campaign staffer James Carville back in 1992?: “It’s the economy, stupid!” As Israel’s war with Hamas escalates, it brings to mind—in a nasally Louisiana accent—the phrase “It’s Iran, stupid.”
Because, whether it’s the dizzying arsenal of Hezbollah rockets in southern Lebanon pointed at Israel, or the Houthi drones targeting Israel from Yemen, or the Iranian Revolutionary Guard facilities in Eastern Syria-, one thing is clear: all roads lead back to the Ayatollah. And yet, there’s a big difference between skirmishes with proxy forces and an all-out US/Israel war with Iran.
"Iran feels particularly emboldened at the moment," says Iran expert Karim Sadjadpour, Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for Peace, who joins Ian Bremmer on GZERO World. "Whether it's going after Israel via proxies or going after the US via their proxies. And they may be difficult to deter because they may either correctly read the situation that the US is not interested in a conflict, or they may misread it. And that could lead us to more direct conflict with Iran."
So how close is Iran to waging war on Israel, and its Western allies? Iran is, after all, a rogue nation well on its way to developing a nuclear weapon. And that’s an escalation that no one, including Iranian leadership, wants to see happen.
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week at gzeromedia.com/gzeroworld or on US public television. Check local listings.
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Caught in the crossfire: Yemen’s forgotten war
In Yemen, the world’s biggest humanitarian crisis you’ve probably never heard of, 80 percent of people need international aid just to survive. Two-thirds are hungry, and half don’t know where their next meal will come from.
Life is very hard in Yemen, UN Resident Coordinator David Gressly tells Ian Bremmer. Most infrastructure is destroyed, few can access clean water or health care, and many Yemenis are afraid to go outside because of landmines.
Meanwhile, 1.2 million civil servants continue to show up to work, with little or no pay. If they stayed home, the state would cease to exist.
The UN is asking for $3.6 billion simply to feed Yemenis and keep the lights on through 2022, but is now short $1.6 billion. Gressly says that means many Yemenis will go hungry next year.
Regional powers Iran and Saudi Arabia have turned Yemen into a seven-year proxy war, with civilians paying the price. The country is divided between the Houthis, an Iran-backed Shia militant group, and the internationally recognized government with Saudi Arabia on its side.
It’s unlikely the conflict will end anytime soon. The Biden administration has delisted the Houthis as a terrorist organization and stopped selling weapons to the Saudis. Gressly thinks that’s a step in the right direction, but not enough.
Meanwhile, in New York City: Yemeni coffee! Did you know that war-torn Yemen still produces one of the tastiest coffees in the world? It’s hard to get the beans now, but Diwan Café in Brooklyn has found a way.
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