We have updated our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use for Eurasia Group and its affiliates, including GZERO Media, to clarify the types of data we collect, how we collect it, how we use data and with whom we share data. By using our website you consent to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy, including the transfer of your personal data to the United States from your country of residence, and our use of cookies described in our Cookie Policy.
{{ subpage.title }}
Ian Explains: 2023: A good year for warmongers
2023 was a rough year for people who want peace in the world, whether it was the war in Ukraine, Gaza, or the one Americans seem to be fighting against each other.
Looking ahead to 2024, one phrase may be coming back to you: The wheels are coming off.
As Ian Bremmer explains, for years, he has been warning that our GZERO world – characterized by a lack of global leadership and the geopolitical conflict that grows as a consequence – was gathering speed. That acceleration is only increasing today while channels of international cooperation – multinational institutions, traditional alliances, and global supply chains – are losing their ability to absorb shock.
Today, when we speak of war, we've got to specify which war we're talking about. Is it the war in Ukraine that's remaking the security architecture of Europe, or is it the war in Gaza that's destabilizing the Middle East and threatening global religious conflict? Or is it the war that the Americans are fighting amongst themselves?
Look, we don’t mean to be all grinchy. There’s plenty of good news to chase the bad. US-China relations are relatively stable compared to years past. India, for all its shortcomings, is a politically stable democracy, and it’s emerging as a crucial bridge between the Global South on one side and the US, Japan, and Europe on the other. The EU is stronger than ever, and Mexico is poised to enter a year of political stability.
It’s safe to say it’ll be a tough year ahead. Stay with GZERO and Ian Bremmer; we'll keep trying to make sense of it all.
Watch the GZERO World with Ian Bremmer episode: Overlooked stories in 2023
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week at gzeromedia.com/gzeroworld or on US public television. Check local listings.
Overlooked stories in 2023
In 2023, a war in Ukraine got worse and new one erupted in Gaza, but there also were many other stories that didn't capture the world's attention.
2023 has been a rough one, hasn't it? From a war in Ukraine that lurched into its third year with mere kilometers of territory traded on the battlefield to a new chapter in an old conflict in Gaza with no end in sight, it's enough to make a person want to dig a bunker in the backyard. Or at least get into yoga...
In this episode, Ian Bremmer takes stock of the state of the world in 2023. Be warned: no sugar shall be coating said thoughts! Then, we'll bring you a fascinating conversation with sociologist Zeynep Tufekci about the one thing everyone is overlooking in the AI conversation. Hint: it has nothing to do with Elon Musk (thank goodness!).
And speaking of being overlooked, how much have you heard about the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict in the past year? Well, thousands of Armenians who fled that deadly territorial dispute are experiencing a new host of challenges in the country’s capital thanks to thousands of…you guessed it…fleeing Russians.
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week at gzeromedia.com/gzeroworld or on US public television. Check local listings.
Iran is protecting itself through restraint in Israel-Hamas war, says Kim Ghattas
Will Iran use Hezbollah fighters to help Hamas in Gaza?
On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer spoke with Beirut-based journalist Kim Ghattas about the rising tensions on Israel’s northern border with Lebanon, as Israeli Defense Forces and Hezbollah fighters exchange daily rocket fire and thousands of people on both sides flee their homes. Like Hamas, Hezbollah has an eradicationist ideology that calls for the destruction of the state of Israel, a position that could be untenable if the border clashes continue to escalate. Hezbollah is Iran’s most powerful proxy, but Ghattas doesn’t think it’s in Tehran’s interest to use the militant group to further Hamas’s goals.
“For 44 years Iran has claimed that is a supporter of the Palestinian people,” Ghattas explains, “I think Iran has come to realize that its use of the Palestinian cause has bumped up against the limits of what’s possible.”
Ghattas points out that Hezbollah’s primary purpose for Iran is to serve as a deterrent against potential strikes by Israel or the United States. The biggest priority now is to find a diplomatic solution to the Palestinian question. Given the urgency of the situation in Gaza, Iran may be more willing to discuss the possibility of a two-state solution, a position that would have been impossible to imagine even a few years ago.
Watch the GZERO World with Ian Bremmer episode: Israel, Hamas, and Hezbollah: Fears of escalation grow
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week at gzeromedia.com/gzeroworld or on US public television. Check local listings.
Will Israel's mistakes with Hezbollah be repeated with Hamas?
Is Israel doomed to repeat the mistakes from its Lebanon invasion in Gaza?
For Lebanese people, it’s difficult not to see the current war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza through the lens of Israeli occupation. On GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, Beirut-based journalist Kim Ghattas explains why the history of Israel’s 1982 invasion of Lebanon is incredibly relevant today: it led to a two-month siege where the city was cut off from food, water and fuel and killed 17,000 people. Now, a similar situation is playing out in Gaza and Israel is at risk of repeating the mistakes of the past. Ghattas reminds Bremmer that despite the thousands of civilian casualties, Israel failed to accomplish its strategic goals during the Lebanon invasion and is at risk of the same in Gaza.
“They said they wanted to eradicate Hezbollah,” Ghattas warns, “And yet, here we are. Hezbollah is still incredibly strong, even stronger than it was.”
Watch the GZERO World with Ian Bremmer episode: Israel, Hamas, and Hezbollah: Fears of escalation grow
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week at gzeromedia.com/gzeroworld or on US public television. Check local listings.
Israel, Hamas, and Hezbollah: Fears of escalation grow
Could clashes with Hezbollah on the Lebanon border lead to a wider war in the Middle East?
How likely is it that the Israel-Hamas war escalates throughout the Middle East? On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer sits with Beirut-based journalist Kim Ghattas for the on-the-ground perspective from across Israel’s northern border with Lebanon. With clashes between Israeli defense forces and Hezbollah, the Iran-backed militant group, increasing on the border and Houthi rebels attacking commercial cargo ships in the Red Sea, tensions in the region are extremely high. Lebanon has a long history of Israeli invasion, which has a huge impact on how people there view the events in Gaza, where over 18,000 people have been killed since October 7th.
“In 1982, Israel invaded Lebanon, an invasion that lasted over two months with a siege of Beirut” Ghattas explains, “We forget, but that was a devastating moment for Lebanon and that’s something the Israelis need to think about today as they pound Gaza.”
Bremmer and Ghattas unpack Lebanon’s history with Israel and how the 1982 invasion led to the formation of Lebanon-based Hezbollah, which holds a lot of power in the country and is even stronger today with around 150,000 missiles and heavy-duty weapons. Like many Lebanese people, Ghattas thinks an Israeli strike against Lebanon is a realistic possibility if IDF-Hezbollah border skirmishes escalate. To prevent that from happening, the Palestinian question will need to be addressed through diplomacy. There’s a pragmatism about what will need to be done to end the war, she emphasizes, but everyone will need to come to the table and make concessions, and that includes the Israelis.
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week at gzeromedia.com/gzeroworld or on US public television. Check local listings.
- Israel-Hamas war set to expand & directly involve US ›
- Ian Bremmer: Understanding the Israel-Hamas war ›
- Israel-Hamas war: Biden's second foreign policy crisis ›
- Israel-Hamas War: The race to avert escalation in the Middle East ›
- Top stories of 2023: GZERO World with Ian Bremmer - GZERO Media ›
- Israel-Hamas war: West Bank raid won't derail cease-fire - GZERO Media ›
- Yuval Noah Harari on the perils of viewing Israel-Palestine through the 'victimhood' context - GZERO Media ›
Ian Explains: How Hezbollah became so powerful in Lebanon
Tensions on Israel's northern border with Lebanon are heating up amid daily exchanges of rocket fire between Israeli Defense Forces and Hezbollah fighters. Fears are growing that Israel's war with Hamas in Gaza could spread to a broader regional conflict because Hezbollah is Iran's most powerful proxy force. On Ian Explains, Ian Bremmer unpacks Hezbollah's role within Lebanon, its history of fighting Israel in the south, and how Iran uses the militant group to further its interests in the region.
The potential for an all-out conflict between Hezbollah and Israel would be absolutely devastating for Lebanon, which is already reeling from an economic collapse, a refugee crisis from the Syrian civil war, the deadly 2020 Port of Beirut explosion, and massive currency devaluation. Despite Iran and Israel's signals they don't want to see the Palestine conflict escalate throughout the region, proxy groups like Hezbollah are a way to engage indirectly. One faulty rocket or misinterpreted message could mean the simmering tensions in south Lebanon boil over into a second front.
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week at gzeromedia.com/gzeroworld or on US public television. Check local listings.
US-Israel relations strained as Gaza war continues
Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: Hi everybody. Ian Bremmer here from Tokyo, Japan. And a Quick Take to kick off your week. And, of course, we are still talking about the ongoing war in the Middle East, which is very much on again, as there is inability to get further deals on hostages for prisoners and aid. And that means the Gaza War is not only in the north, but now across the south as well. And this is a significant problem for the United States which, increasingly, is finding itself isolated on this issue. In fact, I would say in terms of global support for the US on Israel, it's about as opposed as we saw in the initial weeks of the world against the Russian invasion of Ukraine. It's a shocking place to be, given, first of all, how important and how deep the US Military alliance is and has been with Israel. And, also, given that it is in response to horrific, unprecedented terrorist attacks and unspeakable atrocities on October 7th.
But the reality is that, as the war has pressed on, the information war is being won by Hamas internationally. And the level of atrocities that are being committed on the ground, and impossible to remove Hamas, short of that, is hurting Israel's position. We are seeing the Americans start to move publicly towards a position of pressuring Israel more. And I specifically note, with Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, who came out in recent hours saying that the Palestinian civilian population would be the center of the future of whether or not there's resolution and peace and stability following this war. And that Israel was in danger of winning the tactical battle, but losing the strategic battle, as Palestinians continue to be devastated in large, large numbers. That's the first time I've ever seen a US Secretary of Defense talk about the potential strategic loss in a war of a principal US ally, certainly in my lifetime. And it was said pointedly and certainly with preparation. In other words, this was a message, even like a brushback against Bibi Netanyahu and the war cabinet.
Two other things I would mention quickly. One is that the cases against Bibi Netanyahu at home in Israel, you'd think these aren't relevant to the war, but they have been reopened. And those investigations are restarting now in the Jerusalem District Court. And certainly Bibi understands that unless he's able... Very unpopular right now, not likely to last very much beyond the war. Unless he's able to get his political allies to find a way to make those crimes not crimes, legislatively, then he's facing jail time. So he has an incentive to keep the war going domestically, in addition to removing Hamas.
There's also the question of what it means to destroy Hamas. Is it you have to kill the leadership, but you can still have a lot of people running around with weapons? Is that you have to get rid of all of the tunnel infrastructure and all of their military infrastructure? At some point, someone's going to make that decision inside the Israeli war cabinet, and it's not going to be 100 or zero. It's going to be 50% or 60% or 70% or 80%. And that decision is going to be not just about what the Israeli generals think, but also the level of international pressure on the country. So it's a tough one.
Finally, when we look at the Middle East more broadly, as the Israelis have restarted the war in Gaza against Hamas, you also have a significant escalation of Houthis, the Shia militant forces in Yemen, attacking the United States. And an unprecedented level of military strikes against the US warship, as well as lots of commercial traffic and the Americans responding in kind. That is very different. For the first time, not a nuisance attack against an American ship or a base that would be easy to shoot down, but rather a more significant and extended amount of violence. The potential for this war to expand across the region is very real indeed. And in that regard, we don't see guardrails in the Middle East. That's also something that a Biden administration, facing a very tough reelection campaign, is super, super concerned about. So anyway, that's it from me for now, and I'll talk to you all real soon.
- Israel’s geopolitical missteps in Gaza ›
- Graphic Truth: The only ways in and out of Gaza ›
- Israel-Hamas war: Biden's second foreign policy crisis ›
- Israel-Hamas war set to expand & directly involve US ›
- State of the World with Ian Bremmer: December 2023 ›
- Can the US-Israel relationship still rely on shared values? - GZERO Media ›
Israel-Hamas war: Hostage release doesn't mean the end is near
Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: Hi, everybody. Ian Bremmer here and a Quick Take to kick off your week. And yes, we are back to the Israel-Gaza war and it is at least a little bit of good news with some hostages finally being released over a month and a half from when they were originally taken. That has gotten us some Palestinian prisoners released, some humanitarian aid allowed into Gaza and a ceasefire for a few days. And indeed, looks like it will now plausibly be extended for another day or two as more hostages are being let go.
Got to give Qatar a lot of credit here for playing a role in negotiating between Israel and Hamas. Not an easy thing to do. Qatar, an ally of the United States, the biggest military base on the ground, but also a government that has allowed the political leadership of Hamas to live inside their territory in peace and security as they have Taliban leadership for years. And that proves to be useful for both the Americans and the Israelis, more on that later. But is this potentially the beginning of the end of the war? And on that front, I think we have to say absolutely not for a few reasons.
First of all, because there are still well over 100 hostages and they're going to be much harder to get released because here you're not talking about women and children. You're talking about men of fighting age, and in some cases you're talking about soldiers. And Hamas is going to demand a lot more in return. And the Israelis are going to be very reluctant to provide it. So first, I don't expect that's going to happen. And as long as there are hostages on the ground, there's still going to be an awful lot of fighting from the Israeli side.
Secondly, we still have a Hamas leadership, a military leadership active in the north of Gaza. Their ability to continue to fire rockets and their ability to continue to have command and control infrastructure, that's not been destroyed. And the Israeli military saying that it's probably another two months of fighting that they need in the war. By the way, this is about a month after they told the Americans privately that there would be 4 to 6 weeks required.
Now, part of that is, hey, just say the absolute minimum so you get support from the US. You can always extend it later. It's a tactic, but also because it's proving to be more challenging on the ground than the Israeli Defense Forces had anticipated. Not to mention the fact they haven't started fighting in the south, where they told all the Palestinian civilians to evacuate to, but there are also Hamas militants operating in the south. And so Israel intends to try to take them out as well. In other words, we're still talking about weeks, maybe months of active fighting.
The other thing I will say, though, is that the level of pressure on Israel internationally to stop that fighting is going to grow a lot. You've seen the Chinese, the Gulf states, the Egyptians, the Jordanians and Europeans, many Europeans, though not all, and increasingly many inside the United States as well, now actively calling for a ceasefire. And Biden even saying, President Biden, something he had been saying privately, but is now saying publicly that he might be willing to condition further military and financial support to Israel on the basis of Israeli behavior on the ground in the war. And he's very concerned, certainly as everyone is, about the level of civilian casualties that we've all seen in Gaza. Now, does that mean that Israel is no longer America's top ally? No. Under no circumstances can I see that. And Biden would not move in that direction, not personally and not politically. But I could see, for example, some high tech offensive weaponry being held back by the Americans for example, becoming more controversial.
And I also see that happening from Democrats in the House and in the Senate. Again, this is no longer a matter of just a small number of hard-line progressives on the squad in the House. This is much broader. I think we are at the point where Israel has probably lost some degree of support from the United States permanently. The demographics in the United States and how they feel about Israel and what that means politically for the country longer term has shifted. And certainly you can now see things in mainstream media that never would have been printed sort of even three months ago, never mind ten years ago, about their feeling of how Israel does and doesn't run a democracy, nature of the occupation in the West Bank, nature of detentions of those that are accused of, but not yet convicted of crimes, and on and on and on. That level of attention, which only grows, that level of scrutiny that only grows, the longer this war goes on. And of course, the longer we see massive civilian casualties on the ground, that's going to be more challenging for Israel.
There also remains what is the plausible long-term impact of all of this. And for now, it just looks like misery and it's very hard to imagine how the Palestinians could ever come to peace in the region until they have an option that looks attractive. And right now, if you're a Palestinian in Gaza, the option is run away and find someplace to not get blown up. And they're not going to leave Gaza and they're not allowed to leave Gaza, even if they did want to leave Gaza and they don't want to. And then you have Palestinians in the West Bank who are living on smaller and smaller pieces of territory and their lives have become more and more challenging. So, I mean, clearly, at some point, the Israeli government, with a lot of international support and pressure, are going to need to provide meaningful opportunities for the Palestinian people.
And we are not close to that. We are still talking about more war, not less, and less opportunities for building peace, not more. I hope that that will turn in the coming weeks and months. Certainly the international pressure is turning, but not yet the situation on the ground. From that perspective, we're still going to be talking about this quite a bit.
That's it for me. I'll talk to you all real soon.
- Israel-Hamas war: "Just bring them back," says brother of 9-year-old Israeli hostage ›
- Why Israel’s war aims may “break Israeli society”: a conversation with Israeli hostage negotiator Gershon Baskin ›
- Third hostage and prisoner exchange goes ahead, but will there be ... ›
- Dealing with Hamas: What a former hostage negotiator learned ›
- The debate over a “cease-fire” for Gaza ›