<p><strong>The back story.</strong> Tigray, despite accounting for only 5 percent of Ethiopia's population, has long<a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-54942546" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"> punched above its weight in federal politics</a>. After a coalition led by the radical Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) helped end the brutal reign of dictator Haile Mengistu in 1991, Tigrayan Meles Zenawi led the country for twenty years.</p><p>Although Ethiopia largely prospered during this time, other ethnic groups resented<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/15/world/africa/ethiopia-abiy-tigray.html" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"> Tigray's stranglehold</a> over the government, the economy, and the military. It all ended two years ago, when a wave of popular discontent brought to power the reformist Abiy Ahmed, Ethiopia's first ethnic Oromo prime minister.</p><p>In a deeply fragmented country with more than 80 ethnic groups, many of them traditionally marginalized from the political process, Abiy was a breath of fresh air: he moved quickly to release political prisoners, and won a Nobel Prize for<a href="https://www.gzeromedia.com/read/a-bridge-of-love-ethiopia-and-eritra" target="_self"> making peace with Eritrea</a>. But the flip side of these reforms was<a href="https://www.gzeromedia.com/pandora-visits-ethiopia" target="_self"> opening a Pandora's box</a> by allowing many long-simmering ethnic tensions to boil over. (Earlier this year, Abiy faced a<a href="https://www.gzeromedia.com/what-were-watching-ethiopias-opposition-crackdown-cubas-food-crisis-us-beefs-up-presence-in-syria" target="_self"> bloody popular uprising</a> from his own Oromo people over the murder of a nationalist singer.)</p><p><strong>The trigger.</strong> On November 4, Abiy<a href="https://www.gzeromedia.com/what-were-watching-lingering-us-presidential-race-ethiopias-ethnic-strife-trumps-recount-antics" target="_self"> launched a military offensive in Tigray</a> over an alleged TFLP attack on a federal army base. The move was widely viewed as payback for Tigray holding a regional election that was <a href="https://theconversation.com/ethiopias-poll-has-been-pushed-out-by-covid-19-but-theres-much-more-at-play-138322" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">postponed elsewhere in Ethiopia</a> due to the coronavirus pandemic.</p><p>Since then, things have rapidly spiraled. Both sides have accused each other of killing<a href="https://www.euronews.com/2020/11/13/civilians-massacred-amid-fighting-in-ethiopia-s-tigray-region-says-amnesty-international" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"> hundreds of civilians</a>, although such claims are hard to verify with the Tigray region now completely <a href="https://allafrica.com/stories/202011060098.html" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">shut off from the internet</a>.</p><p><strong>Spillover effects.</strong> In less than two weeks, the conflict has spread beyond Ethiopia's borders. Over the weekend, TPLF leader Debretsion Gebremichael said the Tigrayans had<a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/15/africa/eritrea-tigray-bombing-intl/index.html" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"> fired missiles into neighboring Eritrea</a> in response to Asmara's alleged support for the Ethiopian army's invasion of Tigray.</p><p>If that is true, it would pit<a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/07/12/ethiopia-and-eritrea-have-a-common-enemy-abiy-ahmed-isaias-afwerki-badme-peace-tplf-eprdf/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"> two former enemies against a common foe</a>. Eritrea's authoritarian leader Isaias Afwerki despises the TPLF, which was heavily involved in the 1998-2000 border war between Ethiopia and Eritrea.</p><p>Meanwhile, the crisis has already sparked the exodus of tens of thousands of civilians<a href="https://www.gzeromedia.com/what-were-watching-honk-kong-democrats-walk-out-ethiopians-flee-to-sudan-modi-wins-in-bihar" target="_self"> fleeing the conflict to neighboring Sudan</a>. Sudan's ailing economy is in no shape to cope with such a massive influx of refugees, a<a href="https://www.voanews.com/africa/humanitarian-crisis-grips-ethiopias-restive-tigray-region" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"> humanitarian catastrophe</a> in the making. And all of this comes as Khartoum and Addis Ababa are already at odds over a controversial Nile dam that the Sudanese worry will deprive poor farmers of water resources.</p><p><strong>No end in sight.</strong> With such high stakes, the war in Tigray has rapidly escalated. Both sides are unwilling to back down, and the Ethiopian army faces in the TLPF a battle-hardened rival with little to lose now that they no longer call the shots in Addis Ababa.</p>Abiy is unlikely to accept further defiance from Tigray, while the Tigrayans are wary of the prime minister's planned transition from a<a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2019/4/5/should-ethiopia-stick-with-ethnic-federalism/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"> federal to a unitary state</a>. As the conflict deepens, stability across the Horn of Africa will be at (higher) risk.
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