The Ethiopian problem from hell

The Ethiopian problem from hell

Samantha Power is still best known to many as the author of "A Problem from Hell: America and the Age of Genocide," her much-lauded 2002 book on the history of global inaction in the face of genocide and other crimes against humanity. In January, when US President Joe Biden chose her to lead the US Agency for International Development, he called her "a world-renowned voice of conscience and moral clarity."

This week, Power arrived in Ethiopia to try to help avert that country's slide into full-scale civil war. She knows as well as anyone that it won't be easy.


How did we get here? In 2018, Abiy Ahmed became Ethiopia's prime minister, ending 30 years of rule by ethnic Tigrayans. After years of fractious ethnic politics, his pledge to bring Ethiopians of all ethnicities together under a modern national identity and his success in ending a longstanding war with Eritrea won him the 2019 Nobel Prize.

But violence in the Tigray region, home to about six million of Ethiopia's 115 million people, led to tensions, and then recriminations, between Abiy and the Tigray People's Liberation Front, which won an election to lead Tigray's regional government in September 2020 that the central government refused to recognize.

On November 4, 2020, Abiy ordered a military attack on TPLF forces, which he blamed for attacks on government troops. The prime minister at first described this operation as a simple police action, but the fighting has since killed thousands of people and driven more than two million from their homes over the past nine months. There are credible claims of atrocities against both sides. A humanitarian crisis exacerbated by famine and COVID is getting worse.

With violence spilling over the borders of Tigray into the neighboring Afar and Amhara regions last week, Abiy sounded an alarm. On Tuesday, he called for "all capable Ethiopians" to "show their patriotism" by taking up arms. He also asked them to "track down and expose spies and agents of the terrorist TPLF." As the conflict expands into other regions, there is credible fear that various militia groups representing other ethnic groups will be drawn into the fighting, creating momentum toward full-scale civil war that leaves Ethiopia permanently ungovernable.

Samantha Power and other outsiders want to halt this conflict to prevent the large-scale indiscriminate slaughter of innocent people. But for the US and other foreign governments, the stakes extend well beyond the humanitarian. Ethiopia is home to five times as many people as lived in Syria before that country's civil war began 10 years ago. Large numbers of Tigrayan refugees are already on the move. Terrorism in East Africa is a problem that already has the attention of many governments, and extreme instability in the region's most populous country (by far) can make matters much worse.

What are the options? A US military intervention is a non-starter. The Biden administration, occupied with taking troops out of Afghanistan, isn't about to move US troops into Ethiopia.

A cutoff of security assistance funding and sanctions imposed on senior political and military figures responsible for the fighting haven't accomplished anything. In a conflict where both sides consider the stakes to be life and death, they aren't likely to change anybody's behavior.

Samantha Power is ultimately in charge of more than $1 billion in annual US aid to Ethiopia. Withholding that much money would surely grab the Ethiopian government's attention. But is the solution to the Ethiopian problem from hell really to withhold humanitarian help just at the moment when millions of Ethiopians need it most?

The bottom line: US, UN, and EU officials will join other African governments to look for opportunities to use both carrots and sticks to bring Abiy's government and Tigrayan rebels to the negotiating table. China has called on Western governments to avoid meddling in Ethiopia, but its government has billions of dollars in investment to protect there. That could make Beijing a crucial partner with other governments in helping to negotiate peace.

Preventing the nightmare outcome in Ethiopia isn't simply a test of will. It will depend on creativity, stamina, and imagination — and the active intervention of foreign diplomats.

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Germany's historic moment of choice is finally here, and voters will stream to the polls on Sunday for the country's first post-World War II vote without a national leader seeking re-election. They will elect new members of the Bundestag, Germany's lower house of parliament. The leader of the party that wins the most seats will then try to secure a majority of seats by drawing other parties into a governing partnership. He or she will then replace Angela Merkel as Germany's chancellor.

If the latest opinion polls are right, the center-left Social Democrats will finish first. In coming weeks, they look likely to form a (potentially unwieldy) governing coalition with the Green Party and the pro-business Free Democrats, which would be Germany's first-ever governing alliance of more than two parties.

Change?

Though he's a man of the center-left, Olaf Scholz, current finance minister and most likely next chancellor, wouldn't represent a radical break from Merkel. He's among the more fiscally frugal of Germany's Social Democrats, and after decades in German politics, he's an experienced technocrat and a skilled manager of political alliances.

Nor would a change in government radically shift Germany's foreign and trade policies. Its new government, whoever it includes, will keep strong security ties with the United States and NATO and protect opportunities to expand economic relations with China. Germany's dependence on Russian energy will demand a continuation of Merkel's pragmatic approach to Vladimir Putin's government.

Scholz's conviction that a strong and cohesive EU is good for Germany will limit any temptation to get tougher with the governments of Poland and Hungary over their violations of EU rules and principles. And aware that COVID can widen gaps between richer and poorer EU countries, and that anti-EU economic populism remains a potent force in Italy and elsewhere, he's likely to support a generous approach to pandemic recovery in southern Europe.

But climate policy, an area where Merkel concedes she should have done more, will be an important and interesting story to watch. Given its leadership within the EU and its standing as the world's fourth largest economy, the influence of Germany's next government on climate policy will be crucial to global climate strategies. A new German government with Scholz as chancellor will likely push the pace of transition from carbon to renewable energy, at least in part because the Green Party coalition partner will push for this as hard as it can. The Greens must show progress on the climate front to maintain political credibility and popularity. If the Free Democrats are indeed part of the coalition, they'll push hard to limit tax increases to pay for tougher climate action, but they won't blow up the coalition that gives them a seat at Germany's governing table.

Merkel's legacy

Even in a country that values stability and continuity, Angela Merkel's 16-year run is remarkable. More than once she's proved the maxim that it's not the smartest or strongest who survives, but the one most adaptable to change. Merkel is smart and strong, to be sure, but she'll be remembered longest – by both devoted admirers and bitter critics – as the leader who insisted Germany could and should do more to help indebted countries survive Europe's sovereign debt crisis (2010-12) and to manage the surge of migrants that followed unrest in the Middle East (2015-16). Her improvisational talents also led her to change tack on nuclear power (after the 2011 Fukushima disaster in Japan) and on common European debt.

But the main reason Merkel leaves power with an 80 percent approval rating is that, whether she receives more credit than she deserves, she has presided over a period of economic expansion and prosperity in Germany that few other world leaders can match. It's all the more remarkable then that her party looks set to find itself in opposition once a new government is formed. It's Merkel that German voters like, not her political family.

Bottom-line: Whatever he accomplishes as Germany's next chancellor, Olaf Scholz will find Angela Merkel a tough act to follow.

Jon Lieber, head of Eurasia Group's coverage of political and policy developments in Washington, shares insights on US politics:

Is a US government shutdown coming?

Hard to say. Republicans and Democrats generally are in agreement about the need to fund the government. And they generally agree at what level the government should be funded. And they generally agree about the need for supplemental money for Afghanistan and some natural disasters, coming out of hurricanes this season and wildfires. What they're not in agreement about is the federal debt limit, which is the cap on US borrowing that the US hit in early August and needs to be extended by some time in October. Otherwise, the US will have a first-ever default. This would be a very bad outcome with cataclysmic results for the entire world economy.

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Germany's Chancellor Angela Merkel has seen a lot during her 16 years in power. She's navigated a global economic recession, multiple wars in the Middle East which sparked an EU refugee crisis, and now a once-in-a-generation pandemic. Often the only woman in the room, Merkel has had to learn to tactfully deal with dozens of idiosyncratic world leaders. Many have come and gone since 2005, but Merkel has won elections again and again. We take a look at who she's dealt with from the top democracies (by economic size) throughout her tenure.

In May 2020, economic historian Adam Tooze told GZERO World he feared 1 in 5 American workers could still be out of job now due to COVID. It didn't happen. Why? Tooze says he failed to anticipate how quickly we'd get highly effective vaccines, and the scale of the economic stimulus the government was willing to put up. During the 2008 financial crisis, he explains, "we were still beginning to flex our muscles with regards to economic policy, and the scale of fiscal and monetary stimulus that we've seen is as unprecedented as the shock of the spring of last year."

Watch Tooze's interview with Ian Bremmer on the latest episode of GZERO World, airing on US public television starting Friday 9/23/21. Check local listings.

Will Evergrande be China's Lehman Bros? Chinese authorities are bracing for the increasingly likely default of Evergrande, the country's most indebted property developer. If Evergrande — a gargantuan corporation with properties in 200 cities across China — stiffs its creditors, that'll send shockwaves throughout the country's financial system, and the wider Chinese economy and society. The possible ripple effects on home buyers and countless companies and individuals that do business with or are owed money by Evergrande have invited comparisons with Lehman Brothers, the US investment bank whose 2008 collapse triggered an American financial crisis that quickly spread to the entire world. Although in principle authoritarian China has ways of containing the fallout, the potential for social unrest is real — and opacity could make it worse. More broadly, the demise of such a big player in the country's once-booming real estate market, which accounts for over 7 percent of GDP, would expose the shaky foundations of China's debt-driven economic growth model, eroding confidence in China both at home and abroad.

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Betrayal. Treason. Duplicity. These are some of the words used by the French government to describe the US' recent decision to freeze Paris out of a new security pact with the UK and Australia in the Indo-Pacific, which nixed a contract for Australia to buy French submarines.

Macron's subsequent tough stance against one of its oldest and closest allies is unusual, including his decision to briefly recall the French ambassador from Washington, the first time a French president has done so. But this headstrong strategy is also a deliberate diplomatic choice.

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