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People displaced by fighting in Ethiopia.
State of emergency in northern Ethiopia
The security situation is spiraling in Ethiopia’s northern Amhara region with reports that an Amhara militia has wrested control of several towns from federal forces.
What triggered these clashes? This violence comes just nine months after a truce came into effect in Ethiopia’s northern Tigray region ending two years of bloody conflict between government forces and Tigray Defence Forces. (Despite accounting for just 7% of Ethiopia's population, Tigrayans dominated Ethiopian politics for decades until current PM Abiy Ahmed, from the Oromo ethnic group, came to power in 2018.)
After that conflict, Addis Ababa called for the dismantling of all regional forces, hoping to integrate them into the national army. But Amhara nationalists who have long felt isolated from national politics opposed the move and took up arms.
Deadly clashes between government forces and Amhara nationalists prompted the central government to declare a state of emergency in recent days, giving its forces power to conduct raids and detain people without a court order, as well as impose curfews and ban public gatherings. Meanwhile, Amhara fighters have reportedly looted government offices and raided prisons.
Ethiopia, ruled by a military junta until 1991, is deeply fragmented and made up of more than 90 ethnic groups, many of whom have traditionally felt excluded from political power.
As Africa’s second-most populous country, instability in Ethiopia can have a destabilizing impact on the entire Horn of Africa. That’s what happened in Tigray in recent years, with hundreds of thousands of refugees forced to flee to neighboring countries.
The US, for its part, has warned Abiy to get hold of the situation before things deteriorate further. But in a country rife with ethnic strife, it seems more likely that the situation in Amhara will worsen in the near term.
U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin speaks at a joint press conference with South Korean Defense Minister Lee Jong-sup in Seoul, South Korea, 31 January 2023.
What We’re Watching: Pentagon leak fallout, Manhattan DA sues House Republicans, new source of tension in Ethiopia
The fog of leaks
Fallout continues from the leak of secret US documents related to the war in Ukraine. The leaked info suggests that Egypt, one of the world’s largest recipients of US military aid, planned to secretly supply Russia with tens of thousands of rockets for use in Ukraine and that the United Arab Emirates, also a key US ally, would help Russia work against US and UK intelligence. Egypt and the UAE say these reports are false.
Another document suggests that US eavesdropping on its ally South Korea indicated that aides to South Korea’s president had discussed sending artillery shells to the US or Poland for use by Ukraine, a move that would violate South Korea’s policy of refusing to export weapons to any country at war.
US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has claimed that “quite a few of the documents in question were fabricated,” but he isn’t saying what’s true and what isn’t. The world may never know who leaked these documents, why they were leaked, and which parts of them, if any, were entirely fabricated or partially altered. But the headaches for those who must now repair damaged international relationships are real, and the domestic political fallout for leaders of some of these countries, particularly South Korea, will continue.
Manhattan DA sues House Republicans
Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg announced Tuesday that he’s suing House Republicans for allegedly interfering in the criminal case against former President Donald Trump.
Bragg’s lawsuit is focused on the actions of Congressman Jim Jordan of Ohio, who chairs the House Judiciary Committee. In the 50-page suit, Bragg accuses Jordan of “a transparent campaign to intimidate and attack” the district attorney as his office pursues criminal charges against the former president for allegedly breaking campaign finance laws by making a hush-money payment to a porn star.
House Republicans have demanded that Bragg’s office hand over documents and testimony related to the Trump case, insisting that the committee has oversight rights. Crucially, Jordan had issued a subpoena for Mark F. Pomerantz to deliver a closed-door deposition. Pomerantz is a former assistant DA who left his job last year after Bragg reportedly opposed a wider tax-and-insurance fraud prosecution of Trump, which Pomerantz favored.
Bragg has sued to block the subpoena saying it amounts to “an unconstitutional attempt to undermine an ongoing New York felony criminal prosecution and investigation.”
Whatever happens, as this case makes its way through the courts, Jordan will be delayed in getting his hands on the documents and testimony he is seeking.
Fresh unrest hits Ethiopia
For almost a week now, protests have raged in the Ethiopian region of Amhara over a federal government plan to absorb local security forces into the national army.
The tensions are only the latest example of how fragmented Africa’s second most populous country has become. It was just months ago that the government finally reached a peace deal with separatist militants from the region of Tigray, ending a gruesome civil war that had displaced millions.
In that conflict, as it happens, Amhara’s local forces fought alongside the government, pursuing long-standing grievances and territorial claims against their Tigrayan neighbors.
Now Ethiopian PM Abiy Ahmed wants to eliminate all regional forces of that kind. For Abiy, it’s necessary to strengthen national unity. He won’t back down, he says, even if a “price needs to be paid.” But the Amharas worry that without those forces, they’ll be vulnerable to fresh attacks from other ethnic groups or the federal government itself.
That puts Abiy in a familiar bind. Five years after popular protests swept him to power with a mandate to liberalize Ethiopia’s political system, he is still struggling to master the country’s ferocious ethnic and regional rivalries.
Ethiopian government representative Redwan Hussien and Tigray delegate Getachew Reda pass documents during the signing of the AU-led negotiations to resolve the conflict in northern Ethiopia
Just like that: Is Ethiopia’s war over?
For two years, it was one of the world’s most gruesome conflicts. Hundreds of thousands displaced, millions at risk of famine, and a rapidly shifting frontline that drew in neighboring countries and saw allegations of war crimes by both sides.
And then suddenly, last week, Ethiopia’s civil war, which pitted the federal government against fighters from the northern region of Tigray, seemed to end. Both sides agreed to a peace framework at talks in South Africa.
Why? How? And what are the prospects for peace in Africa’s second most populous nation, a country that until recently was one of the world’s fastest growing economies?
First a refresher on how we got here: Tigray is home to 7 million of Ethiopia’s 120 million people. For decades the Tigrayan Popular Liberation Front, a political party, was top dog in Ethiopia’s dictatorship. But in 2018, a democratic popular revolution swept current Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed to power. Two years later, a dispute with the TPLF over the timing and legality of local elections turned ugly. The Tigrayans felt their autonomy was threatened, while Abiy saw a challenge to federal authority from an ethnic group accustomed to having more power. War broke out and quickly drew in troops from neighboring Eritrea who fought alongside Ethiopian forces.
Peace: why now? The Ethiopian federal government has been struggling with an economic downturn, soaring inflation, the worst drought in 40 years, and the increasing costs of waging a war against a well-armed adversary fighting on its home turf.
But it was the Tigrayans – exhausted by nearly two years of siege and bombardment, running low on food and munitions, and reeling from recent Ethiopian battlefield gains – who were desperate to stop the war, say analysts.
Growing pressure from an international community that saw the limits of its ability to influence Addis Ababa also played a role, according to Connor Vasey, an Ethiopia analyst with Eurasia Group
“In the end,” Vasey says, “time was on Addis Ababa’s side but not on Tigray’s.”
So what’s in the deal?
Given Addis Ababa’s advantages, the deal is a sweet one for PM Abiy. The Tigrayans must give up their heavy weapons, recognize the authority of the federal government again, and hold fresh elections under Ethiopian national laws. In exchange, the federal government would relax its siege of the region, allowing desperately needed aid and services to resume.
“The deal was a huge diplomatic and political victory for the federal government,” says William Davison, Ethiopia senior analyst at International Crisis Group. “It allows the prime minister to tell the world that the war is over and that financial assistance to his country should resume in a rapid and substantial way.”
What’s the catch? The biggest initial sticking point, analysts say, will be the terms of Tigrayan disarmament. Eritrean troops remain in Tigray, but that country, ominously, is not party to the peace deal at all. So long as those troops – as well as those from neighboring regions of Ethiopia, which are also nibbling away at Tigrayan territory – stick around, Tigrayans won’t feel secure enough to give up their heavy weapons.
But in that case, the federal government's siege could remain partially or wholly in place, with devastating consequences for ordinary Tigrayans.
“One of the main fruits of this agreement,” says Davison, “would be relief for the Tigrayan population.” But if the disarmament talks fall through, “that may not actually be forthcoming.”
Human rights watchdogs, meanwhile, worry about accountability for crimes committed by both sides during the fighting. The current accord, says Amnesty International, “fails to offer a clear roadmap” for justice and “overlooks rampant impunity in the country.”
What to watch next: Military leaders from the two sides are currently negotiating disarmament terms in Nairobi, Kenya. By Friday evening, analysts say, it will be clear whether the fledgling peace has a chance. But given the uncertainty about Tigrayan security, and the lingering Eritrean wildcard, a durable end to the war could be a long shot yet.
Under Xi's third term, China will stay exactly the same
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In 60 Seconds.
Will China become more assertive with Xi securing his third term?
I don't think so. I think it's going to be pretty much exactly the same. Okay everyone's going to be watching whether you get technocrats in key economic positions or not. If you do, they're going to say, "Oh, it's going to be more balanced." If you don't, they're going to say, "Xi's going to crack down." In reality, he's in charge and he's been in charge and he is going to be in charge. And that really means driving a more domestically focused economy with more local supply chain, more focused on local consumption, and more state capitalism probably means a little bit less productivity and efficiency as well. Plus zero-COVID keeps going, so I don't think it changes that much.
Should Ukrainians worry about the loss of US support after the next month's midterm elections?
Finally people asking about this as opposed to, "Is Europe going to break down?" I think Europe is going to stay stronger because they consider it their war. They're the ones that took millions of Ukrainians into their homes. They're the ones that are facing the major economic challenges themselves. They're the ones that are in many cases, deeply worried about what happens next after Ukraine. And you're going to see asymmetric warfare. The Norwegians are feeling it now with arresting a couple of Russians. The Polish government, the Baltic states, and they're all bringing Ukraine in. The United States, very different. And you've seen this with Elon Musk's recent commentary, you've seen it with Trump's commentary, now you've seen Kevin McCarthy saying "You're not going to get the same amount of money from Congress if the Republicans come and take the House."
This is not going to be a near term issue the next 6, even 12 months. I still think you're going to get a massive amount of support from the US, some of which will have been approved from 2022. But looking out, Zelensky will clearly know that the Americans are not going to be as strong behind him. They're going to be more divided than they have been over the last eight months.
With the ongoing Civil War, is Ethiopia's humanitarian crisis going to deteriorate?
Certainly in the near term it looks that way right now. The willingness of the Ethiopian government to try to improve their military situation on the ground in Tigray while they are supposedly talking about humanitarian negotiations, that means that there's going to be a lot more fighting, frankly. This is what always happens in these conflicts, is when the situation is unstable and one side believes that they have something to play for before they can get negotiations going. It's a harder time to get it moving. And that's where we are right now in Ethiopia. Hard to see in one of the poorest countries, poorest regions, the Horn of Africa in Sub-Saharan Africa right now.
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A cross-industry strike movement brings together several thousand people in the streets of Lille, France.
What We’re Watching: Macron’s challenges, Xi’s power play, Iran’s scarfless athlete, Ethiopia’s gains in Tigray
Walkouts put Macron on the spot
France’s notoriously strike-o-phile public sector unions called a nationwide walkout on Tuesday, demanding higher wages in response to high inflation. The move, which mainly affects public transport and trains, comes amid weeks-long strikes by workers at major oil companies and nuclear plants. Although inflation in France has softened compared to other Western European nations, the country is still seeing its fastest price increases since the mid-1980s. For President Emmanuel Macron, who was reelected in April, the strikes and protests are a taste of the troubles he may face in the coming months. His 2023 budget is caught in a parliamentary crossfire as MPs on the right and left try to cram in more spending and larger tax increases than Macron wants. Meanwhile, winter is fast approaching, with uncertain consequences for the French public’s energy bills – though the Parisian parkour set is doing its graceful best to address the problem every night. And Macron is still aiming to push through a major — and deeply unpopular — pension reform before next spring.
Xi is planning a power play
Xi Jinping has been widely expected to use the 20th congress of China's ruling Communist Party this week to appoint his allies to most top positions. But now we're learning that he might do a bigger-than-expected overhaul by changing up four of the seven members of the elite Politburo Standing Committee. The biggest name likely to join China's highest decision-making body is Shanghai party boss Li Qiang, whom Xi wants to elevate despite bungling the city's COVID lockdown earlier this year. Li could even replace Li Keqiang (no relation) as premier — No. 2 rank in the CCP — instead of the (sort of) reform-minded Wang Yang, an earlier frontrunner for the gig. If Xi follows through on these plans, China's leader will face zero elite party resistance to pursue his agenda and stay in power indefinitely. But having a trusted lieutenant as premier might also encourage Xi to delegate some authority to Li, who would become more influential than his predecessor — crucial for managing the economy, traditionally the premier's job. Keep an eye out Sunday, when the seven most powerful men in China will walk onto the stage at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing.
Headscarf head-scratcher as Iranian female climber returns home
Where is Elnaz Rekabi? That’s a question that has dominated headlines in recent days, after the female Iranian competitive climber drew global attention this weekend by competing in South Korea without a headscarf. Iranian women are required to wear the hijab in public — even when they compete abroad. Rekabi was feared to be missing, but the South Korean and Iranian governments had confirmed that she was en route home with her teammates. On Tuesday, an Instagram post on her account said her hijab fell off "inadvertently” during the competition and that it was a matter of “bad timing.” It’s unclear who wrote the message, or under what circumstances. But the incident coincides with her country being in the throes of protests over the in-custody death of a woman who was arrested for having her hair uncovered. And it echoes the 2021 controversy surrounding Chinese tennis star Peng Shuai, who disappeared for weeks after accusing a high-ranking Chinese official of sexual assault. Hundreds of Rekabi’s supporters greeted her with cheers when the athlete arrived in Tehran early Wednesday.
A new phase in Ethiopia's civil war?
Almost two years into its war with the independent Tigray People’s Liberation Front, Ethiopia’s central government has taken control of a key city in the northern Tigray region. Shire, home to around 160,000 people, many of whom fled conflict in other parts of Tigray, is a strategic win that could help the government make inroads toward Mekelle, the Tigrayan capital. The city also has an airport that Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed may be hoping his forces can use as a launchpad for drone strikes. Peace talks under the auspices of the African Union were recently postponed due to logistical issues; both sides had reportedly agreed to attend, but there are doubts over the political will to make progress. On Monday, UN Secretary-General António Guterres said the situation is “spiraling out of control” and called on both sides to back down. A government blockade has long prevented crucial humanitarian aid from getting through to desperate Tigrayans – with a staggering 89% of its 6 million people lacking consistent access to food. Since fighting began in late 2020, both sides have been accused of human rights abuses. The US, which has brokered several ceasefires that ultimately collapsed, says it backs the AU’s plan for talks, but critics question whether the union can really broker peace.This article comes to you from the Signal newsletter team of GZERO Media. Sign up today.
Supporters gather in front of the house of Argentina's Vice-President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner after she was attacked in Buenos Aires, Argentina.
What We’re Watching: Argentine VP assassination attempt, Ethiopian escalation, Zaporizhzhia tour
Argentine VP survives assassination attempt
Argentina's influential VP Cristina Fernández de Kirchner survived an assassination attempt on Thursday night outside her residence in Buenos Aires. A gunman took aim from close range, but his loaded weapon failed to fire. Cops then arrested the man, a Brazilian national with a history of following hate groups on social media. We don’t know the motive and political violence in the country rarely gets bloody, but political tensions have been running very high since last week, when a prosecutor asked for the far-left firebrand VP and former president to be sentenced to 12 years in prison for corruption. Still, her trial will be anything but swift, and Cristina — as she’s universally known — is unlikely to go to jail for charges she calls a "witch hunt." President Alberto Fernández (no relation, nor a big fan of the VP) declared a national holiday on Friday, which the conservative opposition decried as a gambit to turn out crowds in favor of Cristina.
Eritrea jumps back into Ethiopia’s civil war
Eritrean troops have joined Ethiopian government forces in a fresh attack on the Tigray region, according to the Tigray People’s Liberation Front. If confirmed independently, this would represent a major (re)escalation in the nearly two-year-long conflict between the Ethiopian government and Tigray militants who are seeking greater autonomy. Last year, Ethiopian PM Abiy Ahmed admitted Eritrean involvement in the war, after initially denying it. Until the resumption of fighting last week, the front had been largely quiet for months under a tenuous humanitarian truce, and diplomats were working to broker a more durable peace. That path looks closed now as both sides gear up for a full-fledged fight again. The war has already led to a humanitarian catastrophe in Tigray that is spilling into neighboring Sudan, and the UN has accused both sides of grave human rights violations and war crimes.
UN nuclear inspectors assess Zaporizhzhia damage
Arriving hours later than expected, a team of International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors on Thursday visited the Russian-held Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in southeastern Ukraine. After touring the facility for the first time, IAEA chief Rafael Grossi tweeted an on-site video vowing to set up shop there. But the last leg of the trip was almost derailed by heavy shelling, which Kyiv and Moscow blamed on each other. The Ukrainians say Russian artillery fire forced them to briefly shut down one of the reactors, while the Russians claim that the Ukrainians tried — and failed — to use the visit as cover for an assault to retake the site. Zaporizhzhia, Europe's largest nuclear power plant, seemed on the brink of disaster after six months of intense fighting near the perimeter, overworked staff, and likely damage to the facility. But the odds of another Chernobyl have now been reduced by the presence of the IAEA team — as long as Russia, keeps its word and lets the foreign scientists stay.
Models of oil barrels and a pump jack are seen in front of EU and Russia flag colors.
What We’re Watching: Drawdown pledge, Europe veers away from Russia, Ethiopian peace hopes dashed, a Gulf non-starter
Fighting continues despite Russia’s drawdown pledge
The Pentagon said it believes the Kremlin was starting to reposition some of its troops away from Kyiv. But Russia continued to pound the Ukrainian capital with airstrikes and artillery while maintaining its ferocious bombardment of the besieged port city of Mariupol. Meanwhile, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said that bilateral peace talks were making “substantial progress,” but Ukrainian officials immediately disputed his claim that Kyiv had accepted the loss of Crimea and the Donbas as a “resolved question.” President Zelensky late Wednesday released a new video in which he said "we don't believe in fancy rhetorical constructions, we believe in what happens on the battlefield."
Germany plans to ration gas, Poland looks to “de-Russify”
With the future of Russian energy exports uncertain, Germany is taking steps to prepare for a potential cut in supplies from its largest source. So far, Berlin’s only in the “early warning phase,” which involves asking Germans to reduce energy consumption voluntarily, but plans are afoot to ration gas if needed. The move comes as heavily sanctioned Russia continues to threaten to demand payment for its gas exports in rubles — a proposal that European capitals flatly refused earlier this week. And although the Kremlin appeared Wednesday to back off on the timing of any switch to ruble-only transactions for gas, Germany is taking no chances. Poland, meanwhile, says it plans to stop importing Russian coal this spring and to cut out all Russian oil by the end of the year. Still, the larger question of how quickly Europe can actually wean itself off of Russian energy remains unanswered — particularly as the continent faces soaring energy prices already.
No peace in Ethiopia
Ethiopia just can't catch a break. Less than a week after Addis Ababa declared its second unilateral cease-fire in a bid to end the 16-month war in Tigray, things have gotten worse in the northeastern Afar region. Authorities in Afar — where the Tigrayan conflict spilled over last summer — say the Tigray People's Liberation Front is fighting and building up forces there. The clashes began in mid-January, with both sides blaming each other for starting the violence that has forced some 300,000 people to flee their homes. The situation has dashed recent hopes for peace talks between the government and the TPLF, which this time seemed willing to observe the cease-fire to allow for delivery of civilian aid. Meanwhile, the war remains a stalemate and a humanitarian catastrophe. At least 1.6 million people have been internally displaced and 4.6 million don’t know where their next meal will come from because it's almost impossible to get food or humanitarian aid into Tigray.
What We’re Ignoring: A Gulf guarantee
Saudi Arabia and the UAE are seeking a formal bilateral defense treaty with the US to protect them from attack, according to Bloomberg, which cites “people familiar with the proposal.” Both Gulf countries have suffered recent attacks from Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen. The most important thing to know about this proposal is that it’s not going to happen. A treaty requires support not only from the president – Biden ended US support for Saudi involvement in Yemen’s civil war – but also from two-thirds of US senators. Why would the Saudis and Emiratis ask for something they know they won’t get? Maybe this is an implicit rebuke of US efforts to secure a nuclear deal with Iran that the Saudis and Emiratis oppose. Or an insulting reminder that the war in Ukraine isn’t the world’s only bloody conflict. Whatever the case, the proposal isn’t serious.What We’re Watching: Biden's omicron woes, a Tigrayan withdrawal, UK's new Brexit chief
What’s Biden omicron plan? The omicron variant has set up shop in the US, and COVID cases nationwide have risen 20 percent in the past two weeks. New York City is a hotspot with more than 20,000 new cases per day. President Biden will address the nation on Tuesday to detail the steps his administration will take to try to curb the spiraling outbreak. It’s already clear that he plans to double down on a messaging strategy centered on vaccines and boosters – having recently released a strongly worded warning that the unvaccinated should prepare for a “winter of severe illness and death.” But will Biden address — and rectify — more immediate challenges like testing capacity, which is buckling under the pressure of a surging caseload? What guidance will he give Americans about holiday travel just four days before Christmas? Biden promised to bring an end to the pandemic and get the US back to normal. With public confidence in his competency at a record low, public perception of his ability to manage this latest outbreak could make or break the Democratic Party’s electoral prospects in 2022 and beyond.
An opening for peace in Ethiopia? Tigrayan militants who have spent the past year at war with the central government say they have now withdrawn from several regions beyond their home territory. The move, coming after recent gains by Ethiopian forces, could open the way to fresh ceasefire talks. The war, which started in November 2020 over the Tigray region’s refusal to postpone elections during a power struggle with Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, has claimed thousands of lives, displaced hundreds of thousands of people, and led to alleged war crimes committed by both sides. In recent months, battlefield fortunes have swung wildly — at one point the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front were within striking distance of the Ethiopian capital, Addis Ababa, but government forces have taken back swaths of territory in the past few weeks. The TPLF says it hopes that pulling its forces back will encourage the international community to push for negotiations. The Ethiopian government, for its part, is facing stricter US economic sanctions in the new year unless progress toward peace can be made.
The UK's new Brexit minister. British PM Boris Johnson's tailspin continues. After a week of scandal over government violations of its own COVID lockdown protocols, a Tory rebellion against his new COVID restrictions, and his Conservative Party's loss of a parliamentary seat it had held for most of the past 200 years, Johnson’s Brexit Minister, Lord Frost, resigned. Frost, a hardline Brexiteer who has led post-Brexit negotiations with the EU, had reportedly been at odds with Johnson over taxes (too high) and environmental policy (too ambitious), but the last straw was Johnson's imposition of new measures to contain the pandemic. Frost's replacement will be current Foreign Secretary Liz Truss, who is popular within Tory circles and is seen as a potential successor to Johnson, particularly if he should stumble further next year. But handing her the Brexit portfolio is a challenge and a half: the pragmatic and diplomatically inclined Truss will need to resolve the ongoing dispute with the EU over the status of Northern Ireland — without alienating the Tory's hard Brexiteer right wing, on the one hand, or provoking a crippling cross-channel trade war on the other.