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Africa still sees COVID glass half empty — African CDC chief
Is the pandemic over? Depends on where you are, according to Dr. John Nkengasong, director of the Africa Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
"If you are sitting in Africa, they have the glasses half empty.
And if you are sitting in the global note, the glass might be half full," he said during a livestream discussion on equitable vaccine distribution hosted by GZERO Media in partnership with the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Nkengasong explained that the optimism seen now in countries like the US or the UK, where so many people have been vaccinated, is "not exactly what we are seeing in the part of the world that I'm serving."
Africans are still very worried about COVID, he said. Across the continent, the pandemic is still seen as unpredictable, and its trajectory remains uncertain.
Will the Ukraine War succeed where COVID failed?
Many of us thought the pandemic would shake up the "sclerosis" in deeply dysfunctional pre-COVID politics. It did not.
"We have to admit the pandemic wasn't a big enough crisis" to improve things like the US-China relationship or American political polarization, Eurasia Group & GZERO Media President Ian Bremmer said during a livestream discussion on equitable vaccine distribution hosted by GZERO Media in partnership with the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Will the potential for war with nuclear-armed Russia be big enough to create further global cooperation? Yes, but two things also come to mind.
First, Bremmer believes Russia's actions will likely strengthen trans-Atlantic cooperation beyond security, and that includes global health. Second, China.
Are we going to come out of this crisis with a China that the Americans and Europeans can work with?
And, if so, will that trust extend to global health, unlike what happened with COVID? Or will the war make Russia more integrated with China as a supplicant in a Cold War 2.0?
After COVID vaccines, time to use mRNA tech against other infectious diseases
Using mRNA technology to develop effective COVID vaccines has been a scientific breakthrough.
But that's just the tip of the iceberg, Melanie Saville, head of vaccine development at the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations, said during a livestream discussion on equitable vaccine distribution hosted by GZERO Media in partnership with the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. "
There's still a lot that should be done with the technology moving forward" on other infectious diseases like HIV, malaria, or TB. Still, she said that vaccines are only the beginning.
Local manufacturing and distribution is as important — as is future equitable access to the mRNA tech itself.
Mark Suzman’s big lesson learned from COVID
When now-CEO Mark Suzman joined the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation in 2007, global health efforts were focused on the transition to fighting diseases like HIV, malaria, or TB under initiatives such as The Global Fund or PEPFAR.
Fifteen years later, the main lesson he's learned from COVID is is that "we have and did in the end respond albeit late," Suzman said during a livestream discussion on equitable vaccine distribution hosted by GZERO Media in partnership with the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
What we've seen in the response, he explained, is "to some degree back in the glass half-full, half-empty response" with delays and setbacks caused by nationalism and inequitable vaccine distribution that caused many needless deaths. "
That is not a world we want to live in for the future."
Can the world learn lessons from vaccine inequity?
GZERO Media and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation convened leading experts in public health, research, development, and philanthropy on Thursday to discuss the uneven state of global recovery from health and economic perspectives. Participants included moderator Natasha Kimani of Africa No Filter; Eurasia Group President Ian Bremmer; José Manuel Barroso, chair of Gavi, The Vaccine Alliance; Dr. John Nkengasong, director of the Africa Centers for Disease Control; Melanie Saville, director of vaccine research and development for CEPI; and Mark Suzman, CEO of The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.They discussed vaccine equity and how we can end the COVID pandemic in a way that better equips the world for similar challenges in the future.
On many streets in the UK and US, it’s almost possible to forget that there’s an ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. With so many westerners double vaccinated and boosted, the threat of the omicron variant has eased. In fact, the CDC just lifted mask recommendations for much of the US. But that doesn’t mean the pandemic is over. For many countries, that’s far from the case.
Moderator Natasha Kimani, the research and media programs lead at Africa No Filter, kicked off the discussion by asking where things stand today as the world marks the second anniversary of the pandemic.
“It depends on where you sit,” says Dr. John N. Nkengasong, a virologist and director of Africa’s CDC. “If you’re sitting in Africa, the glass is half empty. If you’re sitting in the global north, the glass may be half full.”
There’s a reason for optimism in parts of the world that have managed to vaccinate a majority of their populations. But in Africa, says Nkengasong, there’s deep concern because the virus, and its effects remain “very unpredictable and very unsettled.” Optimism elsewhere, he warns, should be approached with caution and humility because more surprises may await us. “There’s still a lot we need to learn about the virus,” he says.
Nkengasong is optimistic the world will overcome the pandemic but is concerned by how long it will take. “We are dealing with a very determined enemy — let there not be doubt in anyone’s mind.”
Sadly, many low-income countries are still struggling to get vaccines and distribute them properly. With only 11 percent of the African continent vaccinated, according to the UN, much more needs to be done.
So, why have some countries fared so well while others have languished?
“The world has not provided equitable distribution,” says Mark Suzman, CEO of The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, which came at the cost of “lives lost that could’ve been saved.” Before a vaccine was available, countries agreed in principle to distribute a future jab to the most vulnerable. But once a vaccine was developed, Suzman explains, domestic political pressures in western countries led to a free-for-all instead.
Politics aside, the production of such a quick and effective vaccine is remarkable, and the technological innovation is worth heralding. “I think we've put 10 years of development into less than a year,” says Melanie Saville, director of vaccine research and development for CEPI.
But as for the lessons to be learned from their unequal distribution? Suzman points to two areas. First, we must finish addressing the current crisis and ensure effective delivery of vaccines to the unvaccinated. But, second, we must get ahead of future health threats by ensuring there’s enough volume of treatments available in both low- and higher-income countries. To be ready for the next pandemic, he says, we need to have all the tools and structures in place, including good surveillance, research and development, and manufacturing capabilities to respond to health threats within a couple of hundred days.
You would think that a global pandemic threatening millions of lives would pull the world together in search of a solution. Instead, we’ve witnessed political fragmentation in the US and vaccine inequity worldwide.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, meanwhile, has managed to take the pandemic off everyone’s radar. What’s a deadly virus compared to the threat of nuclear weapons? “Maybe we should give President Putin a Nobel prize of medicine because, apparently, he made COVID disappear,” quips Manuel Barroso, chair of Gavi, The Vaccine Alliance. Putin, of course, did nothing of the sort, and low oxygen supplies in Ukraine have spotlighted how COVID, as well as many other medical issues, are amplified during times of war.
But the Russian assault on Ukraine has managed to breathe new life into transatlantic cooperation. Could this newfound energy for a bolstered alliance help move the needle on other issues, such as health?
“I think the answer’s yes,” says Eurasia Group President Ian Bremmer. The pandemic wasn’t enough to shake up the dysfunctions in geopolitics, he explains, pointing to the politicization of health care at home and vaccine distribution inequity worldwide.
But the idea of a western collision with a nuclear-armed Russia?
That’s enough to shake up the allies and get them moving forward together, and Bremmer expects that cooperation to be long-lasting and to extend beyond the realms of defense and security (the wildcard being China and its future relationship with Russia), which will hopefully make it easier to help end the COVID pandemic and prepare for future health crises.
Looking back at the fight against COVID, Nkengasong likens the struggle in 2020 to one of fighting “a war with bare hands.” Last year, vaccines became the main tool for fighting back. This year, he says, we need to use every tool at our disposal — including self-testing, vaccines, boosting vaccine equity worldwide, ensuring access to new drugs — to prepare for the next variant, which “might cause severe disease.”
Only then, in late 2022, does he think there’s hope for “seeing the light at the end of the tunnel.”
Whatever happened to equitable distribution? Live townhall today at 11 am ET
Today at 11 am ET, GZERO Media and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation will convene leading experts in public health, research, development, and philanthropy to discuss the uneven state of recovery from health and economic perspectives.
As the world marks the two-year anniversary of the COVID-19 pandemic, most regions are still in the throes of outbreaks, and global vaccination rates are inconsistent – high in high-income countries, low in low-income countries.
How did this happen and why? Despite words of solidarity and a commitment to equity in the early days of the pandemic, the world has not seen that promise fulfilled. Can the gap be rectified to end the acute phase of this pandemic? And what has to be done to solve this for the future?
- José Manuel Barroso, Board Chair, Gavi, The Vaccine Alliance
- Ian Bremmer, President and Founder, Eurasia Group and GZERO Media
- Dr. John Nkengasong, Director, Africa Centers for Disease Control (Africa CDC)
- Melanie Saville, Director, Vaccine Research and Development, CEPI
- Mark Suzman, CEO, The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
Get vaxxed for cash and prizes: vaccine incentives around the world
Governments around the world are offering creative incentives for getting a jab.
If you happen to live in New York and are one of the city’s 18% of unvaccinated residents, now might be a good time to go get jabbed. But not just because of omicron.
In late December, now former NYC Mayor Bill De Blasio announced the city would start offering gift cards, free roller coaster rides on Coney Island and trips to the Statue of Liberty to those who get their shots. And it’s not just the Big Apple.
As infections jump, vaccination incentive programs have been brought back around the world. Officials in vaccine-hesitant Missouri have earmarked $11 million dollars for gift cards worth $100. Vermont is awarding schools with per-pupil bonuses if they hit rates higher than 85%.
The mayor of San Luis in the Philippines is encouraging residents to get vaccinated against COVID-19 by raffling off a cow every month until August 2022. Hong Kong has also tried to entice its residents to get vaccinated with more than $15 million in prizes that included a $1.4 million dollar apartment, gold bars, and a Tesla.
One Austrian brothel called the Fun Palace offered patrons a free 30-minute rendezvous to anyone who got vaccinated on site.
Sadly, it’s unclear how effective these programs actually are in increasing vaccination rates. One recent study from the Boston University School of Medicine found that incentive programs in several states failed to move the needle.
Some experts argue that a more effective way to increase rates is for officials to make daily life more difficult for the unvaccinated. France’s president Macron seems to agree.
Watch this episode of GZERO World with Ian Bremmer: Omicron & the undoing of China's COVID strategy
What We're Watching: Israel's fourth shot, Nordic NATO jitters, EU nuclear debate heats up
Fourth time’s the charm in Israel. As the COVID omicron variant sweeps the globe, Israel has become the first country to roll out a fourth vaccine shot for health care workers, immunocompromised residents, and people over the age of 60. (The eligibility criteria will likely be broadened in the weeks ahead.) Pushing back against those who say that more research is required to gauge the effectiveness of a fourth shot, Prime Minister Naftali Bennett said that omicron is “a new ballgame altogether.” This comes as Israel's health ministry said recently that the country could soon reach herd immunity due to a combination of vaccination rates (64 percent of the population is fully vaccinated) and mounting infections (Bennett warned Sunday that daily infections could soon reach 50,000, up from the current daily caseload of 6,500). Israeli health officials say that although omicron’s spread is inevitable, the aim is to keep deaths and hospitalizations as low as possible by keeping inoculation rates sky-high. Will other countries follow suit?
As Biden tries to reassure Kyiv, Nordics get jittery. Days after Joe Biden held a tense two-hour call with Vladimir Putin over Moscow’s increasing encroachment on the Ukrainian border, the US president spoke to his Ukrainian counterpart, Volodymyr Zelensky. Biden told the Ukrainian president that America and its allies will “respond decisively” if Russia tries to invade Ukraine. (In recent months, Moscow has amassed 100,000 troops on Ukraine’s eastern border). The Kremlin, for its parts, wants reassurances that NATO won't expand further in Europe, and recently warned that relations with Washington could be severed entirely if its “red lines” aren't respected. But Washington’s attempts at shuttle diplomacy — coupled with strongly-worded threats — don’t seem to be making European states any less jittery: a debate not seen since Russia's 2014 invasion of Crimea has recently erupted in Finland over whether the state should apply to join NATO, after Moscow threatened to respond militarily if both Finland and Sweden join the alliance.
EU's sustainable energy investment plans. Brussels has proposed certifying nuclear power and natural gas as "green" sources of energy in order to encourage EU investment in both sectors. This is part of the bloc's overall efforts to achieve net zero carbon dioxide emissions by 2050. The plan will become law next year if a simple majority of EU member states agree. But the debate could get heated, particularly between France – newly inaugurated EU president and by far the EU's largest producer of electricity from atomic power – and Germany, which has dramatically scaled back its use of nuclear energy since the 2011 Fukushima accident in Japan in favor of renewable energy sources. Germany plans to be nuclear-free by the end of this year. While the French have nine mostly Eastern member states on their side, the Germans captain the EU's five-member anti-nuclear club. While nuclear power is reliable and generates almost zero direct emissions, nuclear plants are expensive, produce radioactive waste – and there's always the risk of another Chernobyl. Meanwhile, natural gas seems to generate more political consensus as a sustainable investment, though EU states including Germany, Austria and Luxembourg warn that certifying it as green, even only to facilitate the transition to more clean energy, would go against the EU's ambitious climate plans.