We have updated our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use for Eurasia Group and its affiliates, including GZERO Media, to clarify the types of data we collect, how we collect it, how we use data and with whom we share data. By using our website you consent to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy, including the transfer of your personal data to the United States from your country of residence, and our use of cookies described in our Cookie Policy.
{{ subpage.title }}
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan speaks with Swedish Foreign Minister Tobias Billstrom ahead of the NATO Foreign Ministers meeting at NATO Headquarters in Brussels, Belgium, November 28, 2023.
Sweden is confident it will finally become a NATO member
Sweden’s top diplomat is optimistic that the nearly year-long delay in his country’s NATO accession caused by Turkey and Hungary will soon be over. Swedish Foreign Minister Tobias Billstrom says that Turkey could approve Sweden’s NATO membership “within weeks,” and he expects Budapest to follow Ankara’s lead.
Billstrom met this week with his Turkish counterpart and spoke with Hungary’s foreign minister. “We expect white smoke from Budapest the moment there’s white smoke from Ankara,” he said, using the metaphor for conclaves signaling they’ve selected a pope.
Sweden and Finland broke long-standing policies of neutrality and moved to join NATO last year after Russia invaded Ukraine. Finland is now a member of the alliance, but Turkey and Hungary have obstructed Sweden’s bid. Expanding NATO requires the approval of all current members.
Turkey initially objected to Sweden’s application over allegations that Stockholm supported Kurdish groups that Ankara considers to be terrorists. Ankara also took issue with an arms embargo that Sweden imposed on Turkey, though that has since been lifted. At the NATO summit in July, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan reversed course and said he’d support Sweden’s bid after getting assurances that Stockholm would work to address Ankara’s security concerns.
Meanwhile, Hungary's governing Fidesz Party has accused Sweden of spreading “blatant lies” about the state of democracy in the Central European country and has stood in the way of a parliamentary vote on the matter. A senior Fidesz lawmaker recently said there’s “little chance” parliament will vote on Sweden’s NATO bid this year.
Similarly, Hungarian PM Viktor Orban in September said that his country is in “no rush” to ratify Swedish accession. Despite Sweden’s apparent confidence this issue will soon be resolved, it seems the Scandinavian country may have to wait until 2024. But we’ll be watching to see whether Billstrom is right – that Sweden could be added to the alliance in the more immediate future.
Model of natural gas pipeline and Finland flag, July 18, 2022.
Another Baltic pipeline whodunnit!
NATO on Wednesday pledged a “determined” response if recent damage to a critical pipeline linking two of its members is found to have been deliberate.
Earlier this week, the Balticconnector undersea gas and data pipeline between Finland and Estonia suffered interruptions in what local authorities suggested was an intentional attack.
The 100-mile-long pipeline, which traverses the Baltic Sea, opened in 2019 to better integrate Baltic energy markets. It can send gas in either direction between Finland and Estonia depending on their needs.
Finland is NATO’s newest member, having joined the defense alliance in April. The country halted Russian gas imports after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine last year, making the Balticconnector its only source of the fuel, which accounts for about 5% of Finland’s total energy mix.
Investigators are reviewing recent ship activity in the region. Russia on Wednesday mused that it was “disturbed” by the incident. If a state actor is suspected, NATO will have to determine a response that is firm but proportionate.
The incident comes, of course, barely a year after the apparent sabotage of the Russia-Germany Nord Stream gas pipeline at a Baltic Sea location about 500 miles southwest of the Balticcoonnector. That mystery remains unsolved.
Putin's Europe Problem
We're proud to announce that GZERO has won the Silver Telly Award for general political commentary for this episode of GZERO World with Ian Bremmer (which was originally published online March 21, 2022.)
The West is already at war with Russia.
NATO boots may not be on the ground, but the US and its allies are helping Ukraine with arms and cash, and by upping the pressure on Moscow with tough sanctions. Vladimir Putin knows this, but he's fighting a 20th-century war in 2022 — and losing on global PR and social media.
Meanwhile, the ripple effects of the conflict are spreading well beyond Ukraine's borders. And one country watching very closely is Finland.
On this episode of GZERO World, Ian Bremmer talks to former Finnish PM Alexander Stubb, who explains why his country has gone from longtime neutral actor to NATO hopeful.
Stubb — who once helped broker Russia's 2008 cease-fire with Georgia — believes Putin has backed himself into a corner and won't back down on Ukraine. He also thinks we shouldn't overestimate China's appetite to deal with an increasingly isolated Russia: at the end of the day Beijing doesn't want to be Moscow's mule.
Bonus: a tale of two train stations in Berlin and Kyiv.
- Will Putin invade Ukraine? - GZERO Media ›
- Putin, Ukraine, and the Rat Story - GZERO Media ›
- Is Putin still Soviet? Wrong question - GZERO Media ›
- China is wary of supporting Russia: Finland's former PM Alexander ... ›
- Podcast: Why Putin will fail: former Finnish PM Alexander Stubb ... ›
- Russia-Ukraine war: How we got here - GZERO Media ›
- Russia-NATO confrontation is coming: Putin will escalate - GZERO Media ›
- Putin punishes Ukraine to avoid looking weak - GZERO Media ›
- Podcast: Examining Putin: his logic, mistakes, and hope for Ukraine - GZERO Media ›
- Putin has "mummified" Russia: Ivan Krastev On the Putin Effect - GZERO Media ›
- Putin couldn't declare victory in Ukraine - so he changed the "war" objectives - GZERO Media ›
- Putin’s war crimes solidify West’s military support for Ukraine - GZERO Media ›
- Putin's tragic genius: war crimes & isolated Russia - GZERO Media ›
- Podcast: Davos, meet humility: grappling with Russia & egregious violations of international law - GZERO Media ›
- The Autocrat's Curse - GZERO Media ›
Expect another Erdogan presidency for Turkey
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden, shares his perspective from Stockholm, Sweden.
How was the outcome of the Turkish election?
Well, we haven't seen the end of it, but the first round, which was not decisive concerning the presidency. Erdogan just short of 50%, but his coalition did capture the majority in parliament and that will be decisive advantage when it goes to the second round for the presidency on May 28th. Erdogan managed to mobilize the nationalists more conservative, more sort of proud Turkish, somewhat more rural Turks against the more modern, Western, younger. We'll see. But in all likelihood, May 28th for Erdogan.
How are preparations shaping up for the NATO Summit in Vilnius in mid-July?
Well, first there's the question, of course, with whether Turkey and Hungary will by then have ratified the Swedish succession as well in addition to Finland. We'll see. But then is the rather controversial question of Ukraine's application for membership. One doesn't want to avoid the trauma, the failure of the Bucharest Summit of 2008, so I guess there will be afford some sort of compromise, with just short membership, not quite membership, and hopefully concentrate on the concrete need and aid and assistance that Ukraine is needing right now on the battlefield and financial for its rather depleted state coffers.
- Why is Erdogan still popular? ›
- War in Ukraine heading to "violent" new phase, warns NATO's Mircea Geoană ›
- António Guterres: Ukraine war united NATO, but further divided the world ›
- Should NATO embrace Ukraine? ›
- Hard Numbers: Iranian atheists hanged, Lithuania’s costly NATO summit, Israeli airstrikes in Gaza, Russian drones over Kyiv, lollipops and wine in the Aussie bush ›
Finland joins NATO in face off against Russia
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
With Finland officially joining NATO, what does it mean for Russia?
Well, this is exactly what Putin did not want to have happen, right? Ostensibly, the reason for his invasion into Ukraine was because Ukraine was moving towards NATO and that was unacceptable. Of course, now you've got 800 additional miles of border with very well-defended Finland, part of NATO as of today, facing off against Russia. This is just one of many examples, but a very important, not just symbolic, one of how Putin made a very serious misjudgment in the way the West would respond to that invasion.
Is there a global impact on US foreign relations with Trump's indictment?
Not immediately, but for those of you that thought there was a reprieve in the level of polarization between left and right, Democrats, Republicans, as well as the relentless coverage of former President Donald Trump, it is now back. Remember, he was thrown off of Twitter and Facebook. And Fox News wasn't going to cover him. The Wall Street Journal was going negative. Now he's back. Now the GOP is all aligned with Trump in criticizing this indictment, saying it's politicized. Almost every Republican agrees and a majority of Independents do, even a decent minority of Democrats, you put that all together, that means it's much more likely Trump becomes the nominee, and that, of course, has a view in how Canadians and others around the world look at the United States, and the potential durability of commitments in foreign policy are presently being made. It's very important.
How will the Tsai-McCarthy meeting affect US-Taiwan-China relations?
Well, obviously less than when former speaker Pelosi went to Taiwan last year for a couple reasons. One, it's not in Taiwan. McCarthy backed off of his trip when Tsai actually called and said, "Hey, we don't want you coming to Taiwan." Remember when Pelosi came, there were significant economic sanctions that came from China, that just hurts Taiwan. They don't need that again. They don't need the escalation of tensions around the Taiwan Straits, and also the fact that it's opposition party. Clearly the Chinese understand this is not being driven by Biden, by his allies. I still expect that there's going to be significant performative negativity from the Chinese government in direct response to the meeting.
The crew for the first lunar trip in 50 years was just announced. What's the significance?
Well, it's nice to be going around the moon again, and it's also nice that the United States and the Canadians working together, three Americans, one Canadian, and the cool thing is if something goes wrong in the mission, the Canadian gets eaten. That's the agreement, right? It's kind of nice they're doing that.
- Finland’s next step ›
- Russia has pushed Finland towards full NATO membership: former Finnish PM Alexander Stubb ›
- Trump's indictment is problematic ›
- Women in power — Taiwan’s Tsai Ing-wen ›
- War in space? Time to update space law ›
- Podcast: NATO’s Russia problem: the increasing danger of military confrontation between nuclear powers - GZERO Media ›
- Russia vs. NATO: Heightened risk of war - GZERO Media ›
Putin's tragic genius: war crimes & isolated Russia
In a Global Stage delegate interview, on the ground in Davos, Ian Bremmer speaks to an old friend of the show, former Finnish PM Alexander Stubb. Stubb explains why Crimea is crucial for Ukraine's conception of "victory" against Russia and why Finland views its eastern neighbor with suspicion.
“If you have a 1,340-kilometer border with Russia, you always have be concerned because, as we can see, Russia is quite unpredictable,” he explains.
As a global citizen with many friends in Russia, Stubb says that he's looking at years, if not decades, of Russian isolation, which he calls "a sad reality, but a reality nevertheless.”
Russian unpredictability & Finland's border threat
Finland isn't taking its eastern neighbor for granted. Yes, that means you, Russia.
Indeed, the Finns don't one of Europe's largest standing armies to defend themselves against Sweden, former PM Alexander Stubb tells Ian Bremmer on GZERO World, on the ground in Davos.
“If you have a 1,340-kilometer border with Russia, you always have be concerned because, as we can see, Russia is quite unpredictable,” he explains.
As a neighbor with many friends across the border, Stubb regrets that he's looking at years, if not decades, of Russian isolation, which he regards as "a sad reality, but a reality nevertheless.”
Watch the GZERO World episode: Russia's tragic brutality and the humbling of the West
- Putin only understands power and force, says Finland’s former PM ›
- Russia has pushed Finland towards full NATO membership: former Finnish PM Alexander Stubb ›
- Why Finland’s top diplomat is proud of EU's response to Russia ›
- Finland “investing in security and stability” with NATO push ›
- When Russia is your neighbor: Estonian PM Kaja Kallas' frontline POV - GZERO Media ›
Podcast: Davos, meet humility: grappling with Russia & egregious violations of international law
Listen: For the 53rd time, a tiny town called Davos in the Swiss Alps became the epicenter for discussion and debate about some of the biggest issues the world is facing. In total, 2700 leaders from 130 countries attended the 2023 World Economic Forum, including 52 heads of state. The big theme of the event this year: cooperation in a fragmented world. Is it possible?
On the ground at Davos, Ian Bremmer interviews two prominent participants on the GZERO World podcast. Former Finnish Prime Minister Alexander Stubb analyzes Crimea's crucial importance for Ukraine in the war against Russia, and explains how Finland views its aggressive eastern neighbor. Ian also speaks to Volker Türk, the newly-appointed UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, who shares very candid views about the Security Council's track record so far on Ukraine, and discusses the need for a UN unified stance on the treatment of women to ensure basic their human rights around the world, especially in countries like Afghanistan.
Subscribe to the GZERO World Podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, or your preferred podcast platform, to receive new episodes as soon as they're published.