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Russia’s next target? Why the Baltics are wary of Putin
How far will Russia go to reassert its influence? This question has haunted Europe for decades. The collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 was supposed to mark a turning point, but for the Baltic nations—Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania—the shadow of Russian aggression has never truly lifted.
Fast forward to Christmas Day of 2024, when a rickety oil tanker flying the flag of the Cook Islands was caught dragging an 11-ton anchor along the seabed of the Gulf of Finland, severing a critical power cable between Estonia and Finland. Finnish authorities boarded the ship, confiscating 100,000 barrels of illicit Russian oil. EU officials believe the vessel was part of Russia’s so-called “shadow fleet”—aging tankers used to evade sanctions. Some of those same ships, they warn, may also be engaging in acts of sabotage.
Energy infrastructure isn’t the only target. Cyber warfare has long been part of Russia’s playbook. A 2007 cyberattack on Estonia, widely attributed to Moscow, was an early warning of how modern warfare would evolve. Today, those threats have only intensified. Google’s intelligence experts have recently identified Russia’s elite hacking unit, Sandworm, probing Baltic energy grids for weaknesses—the same strike team that has repeatedly shut down power across Ukraine.
It’s no wonder that Latvia, Estonia, and Lithuania now spend more on defense, as a percentage of GDP, than most NATO members. Latvia, for example, has boosted its defense budget from under 1% of GDP in 2014 to a projected 5% by 2026. That’s a figure high enough to impress even US President Donald Trump. And as President Trump signals a more conciliatory stance toward Moscow—softening relations while berating Ukraine’s leadership—the question isn’t just how far Putin will go, but will the West be able to stop him?
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
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Vaccines including varicella, hepatitus A, prevnar and measles, mumps and rubella at Lurie Children's Primary Care — Town & Country Pediatrics on Oct. 18, 2022, in Chicago.
Hard Numbers: Measles returns to US, Finland remains happy, Ukraine ramps up drone-making, Italian PM seeks damages in deepfake porn case, Biden announces major climate regulation
>58: We love a good comeback story — just not this one. Cases of measles, which is a (checks notes) preventable disease, are rising in the US, thanks largely to unvaccinated travelers. The CDC has already tallied more cases of measles in the US this year than the 58 recorded throughout 2023 (full data will be released in the coming days). Though measles is highly contagious, it’s not expected to spread across the country, but the CDC is encouraging folks to stay up to date on their immunizations.
7: Are saunas and reindeer the key to a happy life? The annual World Happiness Report was released Wednesday, coinciding with the International Day of Happiness. For the seventh year in a row, Finland ranked as the world’s happiest country. Meanwhile, the US dropped out of the top 20 for the first time since the report was first launched over a decade ago – to No. 23, down eight spots from 2023.
2 million: Ukraine says it could make up to two million drones a year — if its Western pals provide more funding. Mykhailo Fedorov, Ukraine’s minister for digital transformation, says the country is already on track to produce over a million drones this year. Drones have played a major role on the battlefield in Ukraine, and Kyiv has frequently used them to launch strikes against targets in Russia. Kyiv sees domestic manufacturing as crucial to its war effort, but it’s facing financial hurdles, and internal disputes in Western countries are holding up much-needed aid.
100,000: Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni is seeking damages to the tune of €100,000 ($109,000) in a defamation case linked to deepfake pornographic videos of her that were uploaded online. Two men are under investigation over the videos, which were viewed millions of times. Meloni’s legal team says that if their pursuit of damages is successful then the Italian leader will donate the money to a fund supporting female victims of male violence.
56: President Joe Biden on Wednesday announced a major new regulation to curb climate change that aims to ensure a majority of vehicles in the US (56%) are all-electric or hybrids by 2032. The ambitious rule increasingly restricts levels of pollution allowed from tailpipes each year. The EPA says the regulation will prevent more than seven billion tons of carbon dioxide emissions from entering the atmosphere over the next three decades.
Russian President Vladimir Putin attends a meeting with winners of the Leaders of Russia national management competition at the Kremlin in Moscow, Russia March 12, 2024.
Despite Putin’s current swagger, Russia remains vulnerable
After last year’s failed Ukrainian counteroffensive, Russia’s Vladimir Putin has signaled confidence that, thanks to lagging support from the West and Ukraine’s shortage of troops and weapons, Russia can win a war of attrition. But a series of stories today remind us the Kremlin still has plenty of security concerns.
Tuesday’s raids by Ukraine-aligned paramilitaries into Russian border provinces won’t change the war, but they raise the threat level for this weekend’s Russian elections.
Tuesday’s drone attacks on energy sites in multiple regions of central Russia, including one that reportedly inflicted major damage on one of the country’s biggest oil refineries, demonstrate again Ukraine’s ability to hit long-range targets. Ukraine has already disabled about one-third of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet.
NATO's newest members are also creating new security headaches for Moscow. Sweden’s prime minister is reportedly weighing a plan to refortify the Swedish island of Gotland, a strategically crucial piece of real estate in the Baltic Sea.
And for the first time, Sweden and Finland have joined in Operation Steadfast Defender, exercises involving 90,000 troops from all 32 NATO countries. This year’s event is the largest NATO military exercise since the end of the Cold War.
The EU, meanwhile, is expected to approve €5 billion in funding for new military supplies for Ukraine on Wednesday.
Naming names: The nonprofit tracking corruption around the world
What is the least corrupt country in the world? According to a Berlin-based nonprofit called Transparency International, that would be Denmark. Finland is close behind. At the very bottom of the list is Somalia, dead last out of 180 nations.
Founded in 1993 by a retired World Bank Official, Transparency International operates in more than 100 countries, promoting accountability and exposing public sector corruption.
The team, led by CEO Daniel Eriksson, attended the 2024 Munich Security Conference last week with a warning about the rise of “strategic corruption,” a geopolitical weapon involving bribes and disinformation to attain a political goal in another nation.
“Our definition of corruption is the abuse of entrusted power for personal gain,” Eriksson told GZERO’s Tony Maciulis.
This year is critical for democracy as dozens of countries head to the polls for elections that could determine policy and politics for the remainder of the decade. Among other projects aimed at rooting out political corruption, Eriksson’s team tracks foreign funding meant to influence the outcomes of campaigns or get certain candidates elected.
Check out the complete rankings list for 180 countries published yearly in Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index.
See more coverage of the Munich Security Conference from Global Stage.
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Alexander Stubb talks to the media ahead of the announcement of the results, at an election night event, in Helsinki, Finland, February 11, 2024.
Stubb takes Finnish presidency in close race
Finland’s former Prime Minister, Alexander Stubb, narrowly defeated former Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto in a presidential runoff election this Sunday, with 51.6% of vote. Stubb will replace two-term President Sauli Niinisto, known as “the Putin Whisperer” due to his cordial relations with the Russian president prior to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
That said, Niinisto’s successor is no fan of the Kremlin: as Stubb told Reuters last month, "Politically, there will be no relations with the president of Russia or with the Russian political leadership until they stop the war in Ukraine."
As president, Stubbs’ role is to shape foreign policy and act as commander-in-chief of the country’s armed forces. In the past, Finnish presidents largely focused on diplomacy and maintaining the Nordic country's historically neutral foreign policy to avoid antagonizing Russia — but Moscow's belligerent behavior changed the channel and prompted Finland to join NATO in April 2023. Helsinki also signed a defense cooperation agreement with the US in December. That treaty gives the US access to Finnish military bases, an airfield, and locations to store equipment, including ammunition.
In response, Russia has threatened Finland with retaliation and is beefing up its military presence along the countries’ shared 830-mile border. Stubb therefore promises to be a key player not just for Finland’s security, but for that of NATO as a whole.
Presidential candidates Alexander Stubb and Pekka Haavisto attend a debate on Feb. 1, 2024.
Finland heads to the polls
Voters in Finland will choose their new president on Sunday. The president controls military and security policy – a significant position since Finland joined NATO last year in response to its neighbor Russia invading Ukraine.
The candidates: The front-runner is center-right candidate Alexander Stubb. Stubb, who is viewed as a pro-European globalist, previously served as prime minister and foreign minister and as a member of the European Parliament. He is running against center-left Pekka Haavisto, a Green League member and former United Nations diplomat, who would be the country’s first openly gay president if elected.
During their campaigns, both candidates veered toward the political middle and were vocal supporters of Ukraine and of closing the border with Russia after Finland observed an influx of migrants entering through its eastern border without visas in 2023.
Where things stand: Stubb narrowly won the first round of voting in January and is leading Haavisto by at least 6 points in the polls. The results are expected to come in shortly after polls close on Sunday.Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan speaks with Swedish Foreign Minister Tobias Billstrom ahead of the NATO Foreign Ministers meeting at NATO Headquarters in Brussels, Belgium, November 28, 2023.
Sweden is confident it will finally become a NATO member
Sweden’s top diplomat is optimistic that the nearly year-long delay in his country’s NATO accession caused by Turkey and Hungary will soon be over. Swedish Foreign Minister Tobias Billstrom says that Turkey could approve Sweden’s NATO membership “within weeks,” and he expects Budapest to follow Ankara’s lead.
Billstrom met this week with his Turkish counterpart and spoke with Hungary’s foreign minister. “We expect white smoke from Budapest the moment there’s white smoke from Ankara,” he said, using the metaphor for conclaves signaling they’ve selected a pope.
Sweden and Finland broke long-standing policies of neutrality and moved to join NATO last year after Russia invaded Ukraine. Finland is now a member of the alliance, but Turkey and Hungary have obstructed Sweden’s bid. Expanding NATO requires the approval of all current members.
Turkey initially objected to Sweden’s application over allegations that Stockholm supported Kurdish groups that Ankara considers to be terrorists. Ankara also took issue with an arms embargo that Sweden imposed on Turkey, though that has since been lifted. At the NATO summit in July, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan reversed course and said he’d support Sweden’s bid after getting assurances that Stockholm would work to address Ankara’s security concerns.
Meanwhile, Hungary's governing Fidesz Party has accused Sweden of spreading “blatant lies” about the state of democracy in the Central European country and has stood in the way of a parliamentary vote on the matter. A senior Fidesz lawmaker recently said there’s “little chance” parliament will vote on Sweden’s NATO bid this year.
Similarly, Hungarian PM Viktor Orban in September said that his country is in “no rush” to ratify Swedish accession. Despite Sweden’s apparent confidence this issue will soon be resolved, it seems the Scandinavian country may have to wait until 2024. But we’ll be watching to see whether Billstrom is right – that Sweden could be added to the alliance in the more immediate future.
Model of natural gas pipeline and Finland flag, July 18, 2022.
Another Baltic pipeline whodunnit!
NATO on Wednesday pledged a “determined” response if recent damage to a critical pipeline linking two of its members is found to have been deliberate.
Earlier this week, the Balticconnector undersea gas and data pipeline between Finland and Estonia suffered interruptions in what local authorities suggested was an intentional attack.
The 100-mile-long pipeline, which traverses the Baltic Sea, opened in 2019 to better integrate Baltic energy markets. It can send gas in either direction between Finland and Estonia depending on their needs.
Finland is NATO’s newest member, having joined the defense alliance in April. The country halted Russian gas imports after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine last year, making the Balticconnector its only source of the fuel, which accounts for about 5% of Finland’s total energy mix.
Investigators are reviewing recent ship activity in the region. Russia on Wednesday mused that it was “disturbed” by the incident. If a state actor is suspected, NATO will have to determine a response that is firm but proportionate.
The incident comes, of course, barely a year after the apparent sabotage of the Russia-Germany Nord Stream gas pipeline at a Baltic Sea location about 500 miles southwest of the Balticcoonnector. That mystery remains unsolved.