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In global elections, incumbents are in trouble
Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: Hi everybody. Ian Bremmer here and a Quick Take to kick off your week. Lots going on especially big elections. We have the France results. We have the UK results. We have the Iran results. We have a lot of uncertainty of course, here in the United States. My big takeaway is this is a horrible time to be an incumbent.
It's really challenging and what a huge reason for it that people aren't talking about, because it's already way in the rearview mirror is the pandemic. If I'm talking to you right now, your life was really changed by the pandemic in ways that you never would have expected before, right? I mean, we all had to deal with social distancing and masking and vaccine and not only that, but of course, the global economy seized up and people also stopped moving around for like a couple of years. An enormous amount, trillions and trillions of dollars were spent and that got us through an incredibly difficult time. But on the back of that, you suddenly have no more money that's being thrown at everyone, and you've got inflation that comes from, all of a sudden, the supply chains moving and demand moving. You know that these are costs that people are paying, that people no longer have those checks that were coming in during the pandemic, and those savings have been deployed already if you're working or even middle class. And people are moving again, people are moving not just from city to city, but also around the world. So migration is really picking up. And you really don't want to be the leader who's holding the bag when that happens. That's absolutely a big piece of what happened in France. It's a big piece of what happened in the United Kingdom, South Africa, India.
Lots of these elections are people that are unhappy with their existing leadership because it is such an unprecedented environment, and they're having a hard time dealing with that. There are other issues, too, don't get me wrong. And certainly in the UK, the fact that this also comes on the back of Brexit and a level of perceived incompetence on the part of successive conservative prime ministers who were not elected by the population but were selected by the party. The Labor Party did just as well in 2024 as they did in 2019. I think they picked from 33% to 34% total population. It was hardly a landslide, but the Conservative Party imploded because people were unhappy with them. And that is very much the story. It's that the existing incumbents are not doing well.
Macron is not doing well. He's lost so many seats in France and the far right has doubled their number in the parliament and the far left and the left coalition that is not Macron's centrist have also done far better, far better than anyone expected.In fact, they came in number one. Percentage wise, it's Macron in the center that is falling apart in France. That's the big lesson. It's not that the far right is doing well or badly. Some of the far left is doing well or badly. It’s that the incumbent, whoever they are, are really getting hit. Now that leads to a big question here in the United States.
November is coming up. Our elections are way too long. They're way too expensive. But, you know, four months, it's now starting to really be silly season in the United States. And, even if Biden was an incredibly robust and reasonably popular candidate, he would have a hard time in this environment. And of course, that's not the case. He's by far the oldest person that's run for the position in the United States. And he's showing that age, he is showing it more and more every day. I worry about that, of course, for him and for all of those that support him, certainly doesn't seem as if he's about to step down. But of course, that's what he has to say if he's intending to continue to fight until the moment that he changes.
On the other hand, Trump is also historically unpopular in the United States. If this was another candidate on the Republican side, this would be an easy call. This would be a Republican landslide. And Biden or anyone that the Democrats would put up would have a really hard time. And that's because, you know, immigration issues, inflation issues, anti-incumbency very strong in this environment. But because Trump himself is so extraordinarily unpopular and polarizing, it's actually still pretty close. And most of the polls show that that we're talking about a small number of swing states and a very small number of voters. And if you're Biden, you can convince yourself in that environment, “hey, I'm the guy that's going to be, you know, as useful as anybody else. It's too dangerous this late in the race to bring in another candidate.” I would agree with that. I would, if I really believe that what we saw at the debate was a one-off event and not a condition as former speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi said. I don't believe that, certainly don't believe that on the bases of conversations that I've had with the CEOs, the heads of state, the heads of the multilaterals, the senators, the members of the House that have been engaged with Biden regularly and routinely.
Now, that's different from what the people inside the Biden staff are saying. They are on message. They are very loyal, and they are all saying Biden can do it. If you've seen the schedule, he's so robust, he's so active, he's with it. But anyone outside that who is not like being paid to be completely on message is saying Biden has a serious problem. And in that regard, the likelihood that this doesn't go away, that his principal vulnerability gets worse, I think is very high. So if I were in a room advising him personally and he was willing to listen to me, I would tell him to step down. Having said that, I would have said it a year ago. But, you know, it is what it is.
We'll see what happens this week at the NATO summit with all of these world leaders coming in that are very concerned about what's happening in the United States and going forward, we've got the Republican convention real soon. We’ve got the Democratic convention, and everyone is going to be laser-focused on what's happening in the United States.
So much for that. I'll talk to you all real soon.
British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak speaks during a Conservative general election campaign event, in London, on June 24, 2024.
Viewpoint: Expect more drubbings for incumbents in France and the UK
Upcoming elections in France and the UK appear likely to deliver historic defeats for both countries’ ruling parties in a challenging electoral cycle for incumbents around the world. The polling shows the centrist alliance led by French President Emmanuel Macron’s Rennaissance party trailing both the far-right National Rally and the left-wing New Popular Front ahead of the legislative elections on June 30 and July 7 – pointing to an extremely difficult government formation process.
Meanwhile, the UK’s ruling Conservative party's dire polling ahead of the July 4 elections has prompted speculation of an “extinction event” that renders it virtually irrelevant in the next parliament. These votes follow others in countries including South Africa and India where the incumbents performed worse than expected.
What’s going on here? Eurasia Group expert Lindsay Newman says it’s a “long-COVID story” of the pandemic’s economic aftershocks fueling a political backlash. We asked her to explain.
This year is shaping up to be a bad one for incumbents. What are the lessons from elections so far?
In a series of surprise electoral outcomes, the ruling parties in South Africa and India both lost their parliamentary majorities, while the government-backed candidate lost Senegal’s presidential election to a little-known opposition figure. The driving narrative in all three is the long-COVID story – more specifically, historically high inflation levels.
Mexico, where ruling party candidate Claudia Sheinbaum easily won the presidential election, is one country that bucked the trend. Sheinbaum benefited as the hand-picked successor of the popular President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, who has advanced an agenda focused on addressing economic headwinds through job creation and wage increases.
Can you explain the long Covid effect a little more?
Following the economic dislocations of the pandemic, inflation has been elevated and persistent around the world. We have higher-for-longer cost of living pressures and unemployment rates – factors that are shaping how voters think and particularly what they think about their governments. Pocketbook issues always tend to be salient during elections, and many peoples’ pocketbooks seem especially light in the aftermath of the pandemic.
So, do you think this trend will continue this year — for example, in the outcomes of the elections in France, the UK, and the US?
That’s what the polling is telling us. The electoral reckoning with post-pandemic conditions, including the inflation shock, is a global story. The outcomes thus far in 2024 suggest this will remain a difficult cycle for incumbents. We have to expect more of the same in these upcoming elections.
Interestingly, the political backlash seems to be coming even in relatively healthy economic environments, right?
There is nuance to what we are seeing. Voters are responding to how they feel about the economic environment they find themselves in, rather than the statistics or the nuts and bolts of the economic outlook. In the case of the US, for example, the country’s economic recovery has been one of the bright spots of the post-pandemic period, yet it’s not perceived that way domestically, and surveys show that inflation, the economy, and immigration are key concerns for voters going into the fall.
There was a similar dynamic at play in India, which has one of the world’s fastest-growing economies, yet the felt experience of unemployment, rising prices, and inequities is likely behind the election results.
How worried are you about the potential for this backlash to destabilize political systems around the world? Where do we go from here?
Given the disruption and disorder we have seen over the last five to ten years, we have to expect more rather than less uncertainty ahead. This year’s voter backlash ties into another trendline I have been watching: a rising new radicalization of attitudes as well as actions. It has its roots in tectonic shifts in well-established public opinion, such as the 18.5-point average decline in support for Israel across dozens of countries registered by a January poll. Another driver is a broad political realignment away from the center and toward the poles.
The political consequences of these shifts are seen in the US in President Joe Biden’s outreach to younger and more progressive voting blocs and in Donald Trump’s appeals to his base. In Europe, nearly one-third of voters now opt for antiestablishment parties, either on the far right or far left, while in Latin America, antiestablishment candidates have secured a wave of victories in the post-pandemic period. We will get through the 2024 election cycle, but the risky times are likely to persist as these dynamics continue to ripple through the global system.
Edited by Jonathan House, senior editor at Eurasia Group.
Naming names: The nonprofit tracking corruption around the world
What is the least corrupt country in the world? According to a Berlin-based nonprofit called Transparency International, that would be Denmark. Finland is close behind. At the very bottom of the list is Somalia, dead last out of 180 nations.
Founded in 1993 by a retired World Bank Official, Transparency International operates in more than 100 countries, promoting accountability and exposing public sector corruption.
The team, led by CEO Daniel Eriksson, attended the 2024 Munich Security Conference last week with a warning about the rise of “strategic corruption,” a geopolitical weapon involving bribes and disinformation to attain a political goal in another nation.
“Our definition of corruption is the abuse of entrusted power for personal gain,” Eriksson told GZERO’s Tony Maciulis.
This year is critical for democracy as dozens of countries head to the polls for elections that could determine policy and politics for the remainder of the decade. Among other projects aimed at rooting out political corruption, Eriksson’s team tracks foreign funding meant to influence the outcomes of campaigns or get certain candidates elected.
Check out the complete rankings list for 180 countries published yearly in Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index.
See more coverage of the Munich Security Conference from Global Stage.
- The Graphic Truth: The World Cup of graft ›
- David Miliband and Ian Bremmer discuss the Atlas of Impunity ›
- Hard Numbers: Kenyans march against femicide, Corruption costs Ukrainian defense, Germans protest far right, Evergrande tries to avoid liquidation (again), Say more than ‘Oui’ to Paris! ›
- The Graphic Truth: Where corruption is rising, falling ›
Graphic Truth: Why are American elections so long?
Former President Donald Trump was the first major candidate to launch his campaign for the 2024 presidential election cycle – on Nov. 15, 2022, roughly two years before Election Day. The US puts no limits on the length of campaigns, which leaves the door open for massive amounts of campaign spending and has the potential to leave voters exhausted by the time they head to the polls.
Many other countries have laws restricting how long candidates can campaign. In Japan, campaigns do not officially start until 12 days before the election. The longest election campaign ever in Canada lasted 78 days in 2015. The Great White North now limits campaigns to 50 days at most.
Should the US follow their lead? Do American voters really need more than a year of campaigning to make up their minds about who will be president for the next four years?
Imran Khan: “The Poster Boy for Populism"
Weeks after a chaotic general election, Pakistan’s political parties still struggle to form a coalition to move the country forward. GZERO’s Tony Maciulis sat down with Pakistan’s former Foreign Minister Hina Khar at the Munich Security Conference for her take on how the nation’s imprisoned ex-Prime Minister Imran Khan maintains a hold over supporters and remains a powerful political force.
Independent candidates mostly aligned with Khan’s political party, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), won the most votes on February 8, though they fell short of a majority, setting off a power struggle between Khan and his political rival, former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif.
Comparing Khan to former US President Donald Trump and India’s leader Narendra Modi, Khar said, “He really represents what populist leaders are all about. He’s able to get everybody to rally around what all is wrong and the great injustices. However, when he comes to power, he doesn’t have any to plan to sort it out.”
Khar explained that Khan’s popularity flows from his ability to tap into the frustrations of his base, who are deeply concerned about rising costs of living, including food and energy prices.
While she hopes the political parties will be able to come to a resolution that respects the voters' mandate, Khar says “the jury is out” about whether Khan will ultimately bow out of the process.
Khar also addressed the ongoing tensions between Pakistan and neighboring India. In a past interview with GZERO, she had described India as a “rogue nation,” a claim she stood by once again in Munich. Modi’s popularity, she said, “is based on anti-Muslim, anti-Islam” sentiments that resonate with Hindu nationalist supporters.
Turkish citizens voted in historic presidential and parliamentary elections in Diyarbakir, Turkey
The 10 biggest elections in 2024
Buckle up for the most intense year of democracy the world has ever seen.
With at least 65 countries holding elections, 4.2 billion people – about half of the world's adult population – will have the chance to vote in 2024. To say that the world could shift on its axis this year would be an understatement.
We are going to break down the 10 most consequential elections in 2024, but first, let’s zoom out and look at the connections coursing through elections around the world.
Democratic decline. If you haven’t checked the weather lately, it's springtime for autocracy, nuclear winter for democracy.
The elections on the 2024 docket run the gambit for how democracy can be suppressed, from Tunisia performing rigged elections to Russia jailing rivals. But the majority of democracies are facing subtle erosion: 2022 marked the sixth consecutive year in which democracy declined in half of all countries.
What’s the most democratic country heading to the polls? Iceland, where it is so dang democratic even Colonel Sanders is reportedly throwing his hat in the ring. And the award for the least democratic election goes to … North Korea.
The X Factor. It's no secret that AI is developing faster than legislatures can regulate it. But in the absence of safeguards, the tools to create and spread misinformation are only getting stronger. At APEC, OpenAI’s CEO Sam Altman warned of the dangers posed by AI image and video technology developing “fast and furious during an election year.”
Ahead of India’s last election, misinformation meant to disenfranchise Muslims spread on Twitter alleging that the ink used to mark voters' fingernails contained pig’s blood. History is being tempted to repeat itself, especially in places where lesser-known languages are spoken. X, Meta, and YouTube have all drastically reduced their content moderation teams and relaxed their election integrity policies.
The kids aren’t alright. Frustrated by aging leaders, climate change, and dysfunction, political apathy is on the rise among young voters worldwide.
In Africa -- where over 60% of the population is under age 25 -- people under 35 are 35% less likely to vote. Only 17% of voters under 30 are expected to show up to the polls in South Africa’s upcoming election (despite the country’s median age being 27.6 years old). And a declining youth vote could be a defining factor in the US presidential and EU parliamentary elections.
Time to zoom in. With so many countries voting and so much at stake, here are the 10 you need to know about.
Bangladesh
The small South Asian nation’s young democracy isn’t looking its healthiest ahead of Sunday’s vote, which the main opposition party is boycotting. Incumbent Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has been accused of exercising increasingly autocratic power since she returned to office in 2008, including jailing her primary rival Khaleda Zia and her son Tarique Rahman.
The candidates:Hasina is by far the front-runner thanks to her electoral shenanigans and the opposition boycott, meaning she is all but certain to retain her position and majority in the legislature. Ghulam Muhammed Quader, a center-right candidate from outside both of the main two coalitions doesn’t look like much of a threat: During the last election in 2018, his party took just 5% of the vote to Hasina’s 75%.
Where things stand: Hasina will likely stay in power, so the key metric to gauge her mandate is turnout. Bangladesh historically has high poll attendance, near 75% for all elections since 1996, except for 2014, when, under similarly controversial circumstances, fewer than 40% of eligible voters cast a ballot.
Taiwan
Rather than hire a skywriter to remind Taiwan what’s at stake in their Jan. 13 election, China sent four balloons – spy balloons – to show that China looms large over the autonomous island’s election. Beyond cross-strait relations, kitchen table economic concerns and energy policy are key issues.
The candidates: The election has two major candidates with distinct views on China and the US.
Leading in the opinion polls is Taiwan’s current Vice President Lai Ching-te from the Democratic Progressive Party, who wants to strengthen ties to the US. Although Lai does not support Taiwanese independence, China calls him a “separatist” and has suggested his election could risk war.
China's favorite to win, Taipei Mayor Hou Yu-ih leads the opposition Kuomintang Party. The KMT is advocating for increasing cross-strait relations, while rejecting China’s “one country, two systems” model (as do most Taiwanese, after seeing what happened in Hong Kong). The KMT is capitalizing on China's threat of war to position itself as the safer bet, even blaming the DPP for Taylor Swift skipping Taiwan on her Eras tour.
Where things stand: Final polls show the DPP with a narrow but consistent lead, leading KMT by between 3 and 11 points. But it's still too soon to call it. Taiwan has a plurality voting system, so whichever candidate receives the most votes will become the president, whether or not they achieve a majority.
Pakistan
Stop us if you’ve heard this one before: In Pakistan, it’s still the military that calls the shots. That said, Pakistan’s election (now set for Feb. 8) promises plenty of drama – and potential unrest.
Voters will fill all 342 seats in the lower House of parliament, most of which are in single-member constituencies. The remaining seats are awarded through a proportional, party-based allocation system. Critics charge that the military has done a bit of gerrymandering to shape the results.
The candidates: The country’s most popular politician, former Prime Minister Imran Khan, has pushed back against attempts to keep him and his PTI party off the ballot. But on Dec. 30, Pakistan’s election body ruled that Khan remains banned from politics and can’t run. Like many of his predecessors, Khan has spent time in power and then in jail, but he remains popular enough to galvanize support against military manipulation of the outcome.
Also in the running is former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, also once imprisoned for corruption, who has returned to the country after four years of exile in the UK. Sharif has also been banned from politics, but he now appears to have the backing of the same military that ousted him from power in 1999.
Finally, there is Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, representative of yet another political dynasty with more than its share of triumph, turmoil, and tragedy.
Where things stand: If the military allows this vote to take place, Sharif and his party are likely to win. The next question is how Khan and his supporters respond, perhaps in the streets.
Indonesia
The world’s third largest democracy will organize the largest single-day polls in 2024 on Valentine’s Day as candidates jostle over the legacy of outgoing President Joko Widodo (aka Jokowi), relations with China, and how the largest Muslim country in the world approaches the war in Gaza.
The candidates: The immensely popular Jokowi is term-limited, but his son Gibran Rakabuming Raka, is running for vice president alongside current defense minister Prabowo Subianto.
They are running about 20 percentage points ahead of their main rivals with about 46.7% of voters supporting them pre-election. Ganjar Pranowo, governor of densely populated Central Java, is in second place with about 24% of the vote, and independent candidate Anies Baswedan is close behind at 21%.
Where things stand: There isn’t much daylight between the candidates on policy, as each attempt to outdo the others in their promises to continue Jokowi’s successful economic policies, continue balancing friendly relations with both Beijing and Washington, and support Palestinians amid the conflict in Gaza.
Should no candidate attain an outright majority of the votes next month, a second round will be held in June.
Mexico
Rather than watching a rerun of two geriatric white men in the US, focus on Mexico, where the victor is expected to be a woman for the first time in Mexican history.
The candidates: Claudia Sheinbaum, the progressive mayor of Mexico City, has been positioned by current President Andrés Manuel López “AMLO” Obrador to carry on the torch for the Morena Party. On the other side, former senator Xóchitl Gálvez, is energizing the opposition with her rags-to-riches story.
The two will duke it out to show voters they can jumpstart the economy, provide more social services, and take on the gangs and cartels that control nearly half of the country.
Where things stand: Right now, Sheinbaum is the decisive front-runner. But following in the incumbent president’s footsteps could be treacherous. AMLO is passing on a strong base of support to Sheinbaum, but also criticism for his administration militarizing the police and eroding democratic institutions. Sheinbaum’s major challenge will be articulating where she stands on AMLO’s legacy before the election on June 2.
European Union Parliament
It wouldn’t be the year of the election if the European Union didn’t raise the stakes and hold a supranational election across 27 member countries – the first since the UK left the bloc and Ukraine began membership discussions.
The EU Parliament has limited powers, but it can obstruct budgets, meaning this election could influence the fate of EU-wide projects like the green energy transition and Ukraine funding. The body will also approve the next European Commission president, with current leader Ursula von der Leyen of Germany set to run again.
The candidates: Between June 6 and 9, 720 representatives will be elected for five-year terms. The number of representatives per country is based on population, with Germany at the top with 96 and Cyprus at the bottom holding just 6 seats. Candidates are members of domestic political parties, which fall under broader cross-country coalitions.
The center-right European People’s Party holds the most seats, followed by the center-left Progressive Alliance of Socialists & Democrats, and then the pro-business Renew Europe camp, the Greens.Newer far-right and Eurosceptic parties like Identity and Democracy and European Conservatives and Reformists are on the rise.
Where things stand: Turnout is predicted to be higher than usual thanks to controversial issues like Ukraine funding and the migration crisis, coupled with fears of the far right’s growing influence. The EPP and S&D lost their majority in 2019 thanks to the rise of these groups, which are expected to make further gains this year.
Venezuela:
Socialist strongman Nicolas Maduro has ruled for a decade, and it has not been a great one. The oil-rich country has suffered severe political crises, an economic collapse, mass emigration, and “maximum pressure” sanctions from the US. But the wily Maduro has hung on, and is eyeing re-election in 2024 (date tbd).
The candidates: Maduro, of course. And his likely opponent will be former opposition lawmaker María Corina Machado, who won a unified opposition primary last fall.
Where things stand: The US has recently eased oil sanctions on Caracas in exchange for vague promises that the vote will be “free and fair,” but it’s hard to see the still-unpopular Maduro taking his finger off the scales entirely. That sets up a dicey dilemma: If he rigs the vote again, he risks a snapback of sanctions and a fresh bout of popular anger. But if he keeps it clean, he could lose power to a re-energized opposition.
Tunisia
Tunisia, once the only Arab Spring success story, is now ruled by President Kais Saied with nearly unchecked authority, intensifying xenophobia, and alleged human rights abuses against migrants.
Over the summer, Tunisia inked a deal with the EU to reduce the flow of migrants through the Mediterranean Sea in exchange for a much-needed $1.1 billion in economic assistance.
The candidates: Saied has thrown the leading opposition figure, Rached Ghannouchi, in prison. The CEO of Tunisia’s national airline, Olfa Hamdi has declared he will run, but will likely join Ghannouchi in prison if he looks like a viable challenger to Saied’s power. If not, his candidacy will be an added layer of authenticity to the otherwise well-choreographed charade of an election expected sometime in the fall.
Where things stand: While Saied’s consolidation of power makes it likely he remains in power, his anti-democratic moves have provoked backlash and protests, especially from young Tunisians. In response, Saied is spurring nationalist sentiment through xenophobic “Great Replacement Theory”-esque rhetoric.
Tunisian authorities are accused of escalating violence against sub-Saharan African migrants, while the EU gives the country an economic lifeline for keeping them away from Europe’s shores.
United Kingdom
British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak announced on Thursday that he will call a national election in the second half of this year. The election will be Sunak’s first, and likely last, contest as the country’s premier.
The candidates: Since Brexit, the UK has shuffled through a revolving door of Conservative leaders (Sunak came to power after Liz Truss’s reign ended a week after she replaced Boris Johnson over his 2022 “Partygate” scandal”). Sunak has tried to turn voters' attention to the migrant crisis but has failed to deliver on his promise to stop small boats of migrants arriving on the south coast of England. His main opposition is Keir Starmer of the Labour Party.
Where things stand: Weakened from Brexit, buried under high inflation, and strained by a cost of living crisis, suffice to say that morale is low among Brits. And Sunak will likely pay the cost.
Conservatives are polling terribly, trailing behind Labour 22% to 44%. From those numbers, it's no surprise that Starmer is hounding Sunak to call for elections now, but Sunak will try to hold off for as long as possible in the hopes that the political tides turn.
US
Unless you’ve been living under a rock, you know that the US is due for a presidential election in November. While we are still in the midst of the Republican primary race, Donald Trump is the GOP’s front-runner and is expected to face off against President Joe Biden.
The candidates: On the Republican side, two weeks ahead of the first primary, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis are battling for a distant second place behind Trump. Meanwhile, Trump is lightly campaigning while facing a litany of legal troubles, including 91 felony counts, two of which – at least for the moment – bar him from primary ballots in Colorado and Maine.
On the Democrats side, incumbent President Joe Biden will seek a second term. At 81, his age, as well as high prices and the situation in the Middle East, are hurting his popularity.
Where things stand: With the election 11 months away, the number of moving parts makes prediction a fool's errand. All that’s sure is that everything from the trajectory of US foreign policy to faith in American institutions will be on the ballot in November.
And there are some big “maybe” elections to watch for as well.
Can Ukraine hold an election during a war?
While there’s little to say about the upcoming Russian presidential election except “Putin will win,” Ukraine is another matter. Believe it or not, it’s been five years since a comedy actor who played a TV president was elected to run the country.
The next vote is due in March, but with the war still raging, more than a fifth of the country under foreign occupation, and millions of Ukrainians now living abroad as refugees, is it even possible to hold a legitimate vote? Zelensky has suggested it’s not, and most Ukrainians seem to agree. But he’s also faced criticism from some US Republicans who have cited his reluctance to face voters as a further reason to cut funding for Kyiv.
Israel: Bye-bye Bibi?
The next parliamentary election in Israel is set for October 2026, but it’s possible that the Jewish state could see a change in leadership before then.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is the country’s longest-serving leader, but he isn’t particularly popular at the moment. Bibi faces blame for security failures surrounding the Oct. 7 Hamas attack, an ongoing corruption trial, and outcry over judicial reforms. Even though the country is in the midst of a war with Hamas, most Israelis say they want Bibi to resign (this would trigger new elections).
That said, Bibi has forcefully dismissed the idea of stepping down. Another option to remove him before 2026 would be a vote of no-confidence, which would require 61 members of the Knesset (Israel’s parliament). Netanyahu’s government survived no-confidence votes in March 2023. Israel’s attorney general could also deem Bibi unfit for office, but there aren’t any signs this will happen anytime soon. For now, at least, he appears to be staying put.
How AI threatens elections
According to a new report from Ginny Badanes of Microsoft’s Democracy Forward Initiative, two billion people will have the opportunity to vote in national elections over the next 14 months. So many elections in multiple consequential countries promise authoritarians who want to degrade democracy are gearing up to launch cyberattacks to destabilize and spread doubt in the free world.
And artificial intelligence makes the threat more severe than ever before. “We are in a moment where a new technology is emerging — generative AI — and there are a lot of concerns about what that is going to mean, particularly for information operations.”
She spoke with Tony Maciulis at the 2023 Paris Peace Forum, where GZERO also hosted a Global Stage event, Live from the Paris Peace Forum: Embracing technology to protect democracy.
Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador.
Hard numbers: AMLO wins small in recall, Jakarta students protest, Ukrainians dodge the draft, we learn to do nothing
90: Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) got the support of 90% of voters in Sunday’s recall referendum. The catch? Turnout was just 18% of eligible voters, less than half of the threshold for the referendum to be legally binding. AMLO’s term ends in 2024, and he cannot run again.
6: Six police officers in the Indonesian capital of Jakarta were wounded in their attempt to control a protest by hundreds of students angry over rising food prices and rumors that two-term president Joko Widodo may be hatching a plan to exceed constitutional term limits.
15,000: While the vast majority of Ukrainian men aged 18 to 60 have complied with general mobilization laws that prohibit them from leaving the country, some draft dodgers have paid up to $15,000 to be smuggled across the border to safety in the EU, according to the New York Times.