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French Prime Minister Michel Barnier reacts during the result of the vote on the first motion of no-confidence against the French government, in Paris, France, on Dec. 4, 2024.
Lawmakers vote to oust French government
Just three months ago, President Emmanuel Macron chose Barnier to lead the government after elections earlier this year empowered Macron’s critics on both the left and right, but without giving either side a working parliamentary majority.
On Monday, Barnier tried to break a bitter legislative deadlock over his proposed state budget, which proposes sharp state spending cuts, by using a constitutional provision to push his package through without a parliamentary vote. Barnier haswarned that France spends more to service its debt than on defense or higher education.
Lawmakers were then faced with a choice: Accept Barnier’s powerplay or vote no-confidence in his leadership. They chose to oust him and his budget, and France will now face weeks, perhaps months, of political uncertainty as lawmakers of the left and right fight for control of an institution that neither has enough votes to lead.
Some critics have suggested the only way out of this impasse is for twice-elected President Macron to resign, allowing for elections next year rather than in 2027 as currently scheduled. Macron, though deeply unpopular, has dismissed that idea as “make-believe politics.”
It appears Macron will ask Barnier to remain as prime minister until a replacement can be named, but it will be months before voters can return to the polls. New elections can’t be held within a year of the most recent vote, which took place in July. France’s polarized politics have now left its government unable to pass a budget. It’s unclear how this problem can be resolved.France's President Emmanuel Macron looks and gestures after his vote in the second round of France's legislative election.
France faces political deadlock
After the right-wing National Front looked poised to win the most seats in France’s first round of parliamentary elections, left-wing parties and Emmanuel Macron’s centrist allies worked together to fight back. The big question now is whether they can work together to lead France going forward.
The NPF was created as a coalition of left-wing parties to pull as many votes from the far-right as possible. They then teamed up with the centrists to pull over 200 candidates from three-way races where the right had a chance of clinching a seat. The strategy worked, resulting in the New Popular Front – the coalition of left-wing parties – winning 182 seats, Macron’s centrist allies winning 163, and the right-wing National Rally winning 143 after Sunday’s vote.
But now that the NPF and the centrist coalitions have defeated their common enemy, they share little common ground. Many parties in the NPF, for example, are adamantly opposed to Macron’s pension reforms and economic agenda. Meanwhile, since they won the majority of the vote, the NPF is looking to wield more power. Far-left leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon, whose party won about 75 of the NPF’s seats, is proclaiming that Macron has a “duty” to name a prime minister from the left’s coalition. But internal divisions over economic and foreign policy are likely to cripple the bloc.
The upshot: Since none of the three got remotely close to the 289 seats needed for a majority, and they don’t seem prepared to work together, the country is likely hurtling toward political gridlock and instability.
Demonstrators celebrate during the New Popular Front’s election night after announcing the voting primary results for 2nd tour of the French legislative elections, in Paris on July 7, 2024.
French left-wing coalition tops election results
The New Popular Front won 182 seats in France’s National Assembly and became the largest party in a shock result from Sunday’s second-round vote, but no party has the numbers to form a governing majority.
Voter turnout was at its highest level in a generation – with the electorate likely spurred on by the far-right National Rally party, aka RN, coming in first last weekend. On Sunday, the RN fell far short of expectations, placing third with 143 seats. But fear of Marine Le Pen’s party did not drive support for Emmanuel Macron’s centrists, as it did in 2022 and 2017 — voters found a way to deny her a government while punishing the deeply unpopular president at the same time. Macron’s party lost seats despite coming in second at 163 seats, and Prime Minister Gabriel Attal offered his resignation.
What happens now? The NFP itself is a deeply unstable alliance of necessity, with bitter rivalries between the leaders of its constituent parties. It’s hard to imagine them staying together, but Macron is likely to try to form a “Rainbow Coalition” of centrists and leftists to govern with full powers. He’ll have to make major policy compromises to keep it together.
Failing that, Macron can implement a caretaker government with more limited authority until he can call another snap election in 12 months.
“France now faces a period of deep, political confusion which could be exploited by Le Pen,” says Eurasia Group’s Mujtaba Rahman. “The other squabbling, political forces of left, right, and center will struggle to agree on anything in the months ahead to soften the French electorate’s anger or anxieties about immigration, the cost of living, public services, or the exploding budget deficit.”Marine Le Pen, member of parliament and French far-right National Rally.
National Rally seeks allies as French legislative elections head into round two
As France prepares for its second round of legislative elections this Sunday, Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally, aka RN, party has announced that even if it falls short of an outright majority, it will attempt to form a majority government by drawing allies from the conservative Republicans party for parliamentary backing.
The announcement comes after the RN beat President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist coalition in the first round. It’s expected to prevail – if narrowly – again on Sunday.
“It's not a change in direction because she is still saying they won’t form a minority government,” says Eurasia Group’s Europe director Mujtaba Rahman. “But she is saying that if they come close they will try to pull allies over from the hard right of the Les Républicains and then form a majoritarian government.”
It remains unclear, however, whether she and Jordan Bardella, the party’s chief and candidate for prime minister, will succeed. Éric Ciotti, the then-leader of the Republicans, caused outrage and was forced to leave the party last month when he teamed up with the RN.
In a bid to deprive the far right of a 289-seat majority, Macron’s alliance is working on pulling some of its third-place candidates ahead of Sunday’s run-off, and the left-wing New Popular Front has said it will pull all of its candidates. So far, 202 have dropped out – 127 from left-wing parties and 75 from Macron’s centrists.
If Le Pen’s RN succeeds in winning friends from other parties after the second-round vote Sunday, it would further normalize the far right in French politics and could usher in a far-right government in France’s parliament.
Le Pen’s already making post-election plans. Members of her party in the European Parliament’s Identity and Democracy group plan to meet with EU allies next Monday to discuss the future of the far right Europe-wide. Many are considering whether to join a new populist alliance announced this week by Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban.
How the Supreme Court immunity ruling changes presidential power
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
What does the Supreme Court's immunity decision mean for Trump and the future of presidential power?
Well, for Trump, the first thing it means is that you're not going to be hearing about on the case of his involvement in January 6th. All of that gets punted until after the election earliest, assuming Biden wins and more likely these days, Trump. The case is kind of a dead letter. More broadly for presidential power. We're talking about immunity for all official acts that are engaged in during the course of a person's presidency. Now, in dissent, Justice Sotomayor, who's pretty far left on the court, has said that this doesn't prevent a president from engaging in treasonous acts and makes the president a king. Most jurists don't accept that, but it certainly does lead to huge questions about what is and what is not an official act. And of course, presidents would be inclined to argue that very broadly to be able to avoid the potential at any cases against them. So this is a pretty significant, not necessary momentous, but certainly very significant decision by the court.
With the far-right surging in the French elections, what would a caretaker government in France mean for Europe?
Well, it is more likely that we see a caretaker government than we see a far-right majority. And the efforts by President Macron and the left to ensure that they are not running against each other in the second round, triangular three-person elections make it more likely that you have a hung parliament. Then you have the far right in a cohabitation of this very unusual situation where the prime minister is opposition to the president. But what's going to happen is that you have a very, very weak French government and that almost nothing can pass in the next 12 months until another election would occur. It certainly makes Le Pen stronger. It makes it more likely that the far right is eventually able to defeat a Macron successor from the center in 2027.
And it also makes it more likely that the French budget is out of whack with the EU. They're not able to pass anything that looks like a balanced budget, that more parliamentary approvals for things like, additional support for Ukraine or training troops on the ground, would have a hard time getting through the French parliament if it requires such a vote. So it's a real challenge for the EU. It's a challenge for France.
Does the West have any concerns with Modi's upcoming visit to Russia?
Not really. The West relationship with Prime Minister Modi is very strong. Modi is increasingly decoupling the defense relationship between India and Russia. They buy a lot from Russia. No Indian technology goes to Russia the way that it does from China, for example. So you don't have that dual use problem. And India buys an awful lot of oil from Russia, at a discount. But that is in line with American and the West's policies, because they don't want a global recession. Modi and Putin, in principle, are supposed to visit each other every year. That hasn't happened. And so this is sort of getting that relationship in that regard on track. But I think there's not a lot strategically that the West is worried about near term here.
Marine Le Pen, French far-right leader and far-right Rassemblement National (National Rally - RN) party candidate, reacts on stage after partial results in the first round of the early French parliamentary elections in Henin-Beaumont, France, June 30, 2024.
Can Le Pen rewrite French politics next week?
Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally party, aka RN, topped the first round of voting on Sunday, winning about a third of the French vote – the best showing in the party’s half-century history. But in next Sunday’s round two, will she be able to win a majority?
Non: Macron’s Ensemble party, which placed third with about 20%, is hobbled, but the left and center right are also closing ranks against Le Pen. In hundreds of races, they’re withdrawing third-place candidates to consolidate direct challenges to RN. Respected pollsters predict about 270 seats for Le Pen, 19 shy of a majority.
That would mean a chaotic, hung parliament and a caretaker government overseen by a technocrat. President Emmanuel Macron would be a lame duck for the last three years of his presidency. Count France out of any major EU initiatives during that time.
Oui: If collapsing most races into two-way contests alienates voters and suppresses turnout, the RN benefits from greater motivation among its base. And of course, pollsters have historically had trouble accurately predicting RN’s appeal.
The loser: In calling these snap elections after Le Pen surged in European Parliament elections, Macron gambled that, as in the past, the French people would have little appetite for far-right rule at home. No matter what happens next Sunday he – and the liberal centrist movement he has built – have lost that bet.
Marine Le Pen, French far-right leader and far-right Rassemblement National (National Rally - RN) party candidate, speaks to journalists after partial results in the first round of the early French parliamentary elections in Henin-Beaumont, France, June 30, 2024.
French election: Far right wins first round
Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally won the first round of France's election on Sunday with 33% of the vote, while the young left-wing New Popular Front alliance took around 28%. President Emmanuel Macron’s gambit to capitalize on fear of the far right failed to generate excitement for his Ensemble alliance, which placed third with roughly 21% of the vote.
That said, Le Pen’s party is expected to win between 230 and 280 of the 577 seats in the National Assembly after the second round of voting on July 7. That would put them short of the 289 seats needed for an outright majority, but with enough to make it difficult for either the NFP or Macron’s alliance to form an easy coalition.
Turnout on Sunday was unusually high, around 59%, fully 20 percentage points higher than the contest in 2022. We’re watching how well that interest holds up in round two, as well as whether Macron’s efforts to coordinate with the NFP to deny the RN a majority bear fruit. If they can agree to turn competitive three-way second-round races into likely losses for the RN by strategically withdrawing candidates from certain districts and thereby consolidating anti-RN votes, they may be able to prevent a far-right majority.
The likely result will be a hung parliament, says Eurasia Group’s Mujtaba Rahman, meaning Macron would form a caretaker government with much reduced power. “France is now facing the prospect of an enfeebled caretaker government before new elections in 2025, which will leave this G-7 power and UN Security Council permanent member largely rudderless for a year.”British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak speaks during a Conservative general election campaign event, in London, on June 24, 2024.
Viewpoint: Expect more drubbings for incumbents in France and the UK
Upcoming elections in France and the UK appear likely to deliver historic defeats for both countries’ ruling parties in a challenging electoral cycle for incumbents around the world. The polling shows the centrist alliance led by French President Emmanuel Macron’s Rennaissance party trailing both the far-right National Rally and the left-wing New Popular Front ahead of the legislative elections on June 30 and July 7 – pointing to an extremely difficult government formation process.
Meanwhile, the UK’s ruling Conservative party's dire polling ahead of the July 4 elections has prompted speculation of an “extinction event” that renders it virtually irrelevant in the next parliament. These votes follow others in countries including South Africa and India where the incumbents performed worse than expected.
What’s going on here? Eurasia Group expert Lindsay Newman says it’s a “long-COVID story” of the pandemic’s economic aftershocks fueling a political backlash. We asked her to explain.
This year is shaping up to be a bad one for incumbents. What are the lessons from elections so far?
In a series of surprise electoral outcomes, the ruling parties in South Africa and India both lost their parliamentary majorities, while the government-backed candidate lost Senegal’s presidential election to a little-known opposition figure. The driving narrative in all three is the long-COVID story – more specifically, historically high inflation levels.
Mexico, where ruling party candidate Claudia Sheinbaum easily won the presidential election, is one country that bucked the trend. Sheinbaum benefited as the hand-picked successor of the popular President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, who has advanced an agenda focused on addressing economic headwinds through job creation and wage increases.
Can you explain the long Covid effect a little more?
Following the economic dislocations of the pandemic, inflation has been elevated and persistent around the world. We have higher-for-longer cost of living pressures and unemployment rates – factors that are shaping how voters think and particularly what they think about their governments. Pocketbook issues always tend to be salient during elections, and many peoples’ pocketbooks seem especially light in the aftermath of the pandemic.
So, do you think this trend will continue this year — for example, in the outcomes of the elections in France, the UK, and the US?
That’s what the polling is telling us. The electoral reckoning with post-pandemic conditions, including the inflation shock, is a global story. The outcomes thus far in 2024 suggest this will remain a difficult cycle for incumbents. We have to expect more of the same in these upcoming elections.
Interestingly, the political backlash seems to be coming even in relatively healthy economic environments, right?
There is nuance to what we are seeing. Voters are responding to how they feel about the economic environment they find themselves in, rather than the statistics or the nuts and bolts of the economic outlook. In the case of the US, for example, the country’s economic recovery has been one of the bright spots of the post-pandemic period, yet it’s not perceived that way domestically, and surveys show that inflation, the economy, and immigration are key concerns for voters going into the fall.
There was a similar dynamic at play in India, which has one of the world’s fastest-growing economies, yet the felt experience of unemployment, rising prices, and inequities is likely behind the election results.
How worried are you about the potential for this backlash to destabilize political systems around the world? Where do we go from here?
Given the disruption and disorder we have seen over the last five to ten years, we have to expect more rather than less uncertainty ahead. This year’s voter backlash ties into another trendline I have been watching: a rising new radicalization of attitudes as well as actions. It has its roots in tectonic shifts in well-established public opinion, such as the 18.5-point average decline in support for Israel across dozens of countries registered by a January poll. Another driver is a broad political realignment away from the center and toward the poles.
The political consequences of these shifts are seen in the US in President Joe Biden’s outreach to younger and more progressive voting blocs and in Donald Trump’s appeals to his base. In Europe, nearly one-third of voters now opt for antiestablishment parties, either on the far right or far left, while in Latin America, antiestablishment candidates have secured a wave of victories in the post-pandemic period. We will get through the 2024 election cycle, but the risky times are likely to persist as these dynamics continue to ripple through the global system.
Edited by Jonathan House, senior editor at Eurasia Group.