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French Prime Minister Michel Barnier leaves following the weekly cabinet meeting at the Elysee Palace in Paris, France, on Nov. 27, 2024.
French government barrels toward a brick wall
To stop this bill from becoming law, lawmakers must call and pass a vote of no-confidence in government and, given the unpopularity of both Barnier and the bill with populist critics on both the left and right, that’s what next for France’s latest political meltdown. Facing near-universal condemnation from the left, Barnier has been relying on support from the right-wing populists of the Rassemblement Nationale. The party’s true leader, Marine Le Pen, made her party’s intention clear with a post on social media that accused Barnier of failing to listen to the 11 million voters who backed her party at the last election.
Expect Barnier’s government to collapse on Wednesday. It’s unclear how many weeks or months it will take to form the next French government and to produce a budget that can steady the nerves of investors who’ve become increasingly squeamish about France’s future.
A 'coal is dead' placard is seen during the demonstration. Activists from Friends Of The Earth and other environmental groups gathered outside the Royal Courts of Justice as the legal challenge to the Whitehaven coal mine in Cumbria begins.
Hard Numbers: UK buries coal, Austria’s far right surges, Le Pen faces trial, UN extends but doesn’t expand Haiti mission, Russia spends more on guns (less on butter)
142: After 142 years, the UK government closed the country’s last coal-fired power plant on Monday night. Coal power was a critical factor in the British-born Industrial Revolution of the 18th century, but it wasn’t until 1882 that the British opened the first public coal power plant. The closure is part of the government’s plan to generate 100% of Great Britain’s energy from renewable sources by 2030. Our favorite British coal story? How coal pollution changed the color of the Peppered Moths of Manchester.
29.2: Austria’s Freedom Party became the first far-right party to win an election in the country since World War II, after taking 29.2% of the vote in Sunday’s election by appealing to Austrians worried about immigration, inflation, and the Ukraine war. But it’s a familiar story in Europe these days: A far-right party takes a plurality of the vote, only to find that it lacks an obvious coalition partner to form a government. The incumbent Austrian People’s Party has said it will only work with the Freedom Party if party boss Herbert Kickl renounces any cabinet position. That’s a tough sell – Kickl says he wants to be chancellor.
9: Meanwhile, elsewhere in European right-wing news, Marine Le Pen, the former leader and top candidate of France’s National Rally party, began a nine-week trial in which she and two dozen other party officials are accused of misusing EU funds by using them to pay party staff for political work. Le Pen says the payments were legitimate. If convicted, she faces up to 10 years in prison, fines of several million euros, and possibly being deemed ineligible to run for office. She is considered a top contender in the 2027 presidential election.
1: The UN Security council agreed unanimously on Monday to authorize the UN-backed security force in Haiti for one more year. But a US proposal to make the mission – currently a Kenya-led volunteer force – into a formal UN peacekeeping operation was blocked by Russia and China, which said the current force needs more time to find its footing. Haiti, for its part, has called for a peacekeeping operation as the Kenyan-led force struggles to subdue the powerful gangs that have taken control over vast swathes of the capital.
25: Russia will boost defense spending by 25% next year, as Vladimir Putin doubles down both on his invasion of Ukraine and on the deeper militarization of the economy at home. Social spending, meanwhile, is set to fall by nearly 20%. Heavy spending on defense has helped to insulate Russia’s economy from the effects of Western sanctions, with GDP growing 3.6% last year and forecasters predicting a similar outcome this year. How secure is Putin? Read our recent piece on the endless ends of the Russian president.French political leaders
Macron has put France’s fate in Le Pen’s hands
President Emmanuel Macron’s appointment of Michel Barnier as France’s new prime minister on Sept. 5 has put an end to two months of political deadlock and disarray triggered by the Jul. 7 parliamentary election result. But with the far right’s Marine Le Pen having emerged as kingmaker in a deeply fractured parliament, the respite for Macron, Barnier, and France could prove short-lived – and costly.
Since the founding of the Fifth Republic in 1958, France has had majority governments aligned with the president, majority governments opposed to the president (“cohabitations”), and – in the last two years – minority governments that have struggled to enact the president’s legislative agenda but have nonetheless had enough support in parliament to evade censure.
That era of broad stability is now over. Macron’s surprise election returned a hung National Assembly split into three-and-a-half ideological blocs. For the first time in 62 years, no party, bloc, or natural alliance won anywhere near the 289 out of 577 seats needed to govern comfortably or to survive censure. This means that any government that emerged was bound to be the most fragile in recent French history.
Following a brief Olympic truce, Macron finally launched negotiations to form a new government on Aug. 23. The left-wing New Popular Front insisted that it was entitled to elevate a little-known radical to the top job who’d reverse the president’s agenda and blow up France’s deficit, despite holding only one-third (193) of deputies in the assembly. Macron, who has the sole constitutional right to nominate the prime minister, refused.
Such a government, he argued correctly, would have zero chance of surviving immediate censure by Macron’s center (166 seats), the ex-Gaullist center right (47 seats), and Le Pen’s far right (142 seats). Outraged, the left took to the streets in force on Sept. 7, accusing Macron of “trampling democracy” and “staging a coup.” But it’s hard to argue with the president’s math.
And math is the main reason why Barnier was named to the post.
Yes, the 73-year-old former Brexit negotiator and veteran of the center right is a pragmatic dealmaker with an independent streak who would build a coalition of “national unity” from center right to center left. Barnier also promised to let Macron do his own thing on foreign affairs and defense, and he pledged to try to preserve the bulk of the president’s labor market and pension reforms. But he was far from Macron’s first choice. The two men had clashed in the past, and Macron exhausted several other options before finally nominating him.
Here’s the kicker, though: Unlike Macron’s first picks for the role, the former Socialist Prime Minister Bernard Cazeneuve and the center-right president of the northern French region Xavier Bertrand, Le Pen signaled that her party would not join the left in an immediate no-confidence vote against Barnier. And without her implicit blessing, no government could hope to survive contact with the National Assembly, as the left is committed to voting down candidates from the center and right.
Le Pen’s willingness to passively tolerate Barnier’s appointment suggests that, at this moment, she believes her political interests are best served by appearing to be on the side of stability rather than chaos. Moreover, she has reportedly been promised that the new government will advance her party’s policy priorities on immigration, the cost of living, and proportional representation voting – the latter a long-standing demand of the National Rally to better its chances of winning future elections.
How far will this constructive approach go? We will get a glimpse into the limits of Le Pen’s strategy when the new government is confronted with its first and toughest test in a few weeks. Facing the prospect of a destructive fiscal crisis, Barnier and his new finance minister (whoever he picks) will have to propose some way of filling a €16 billion hole in this year’s budget and introduce a deficit-cutting draft budget for 2025 by Oct. 1 to prevent punishment by the European Commission and financial markets. Both the amended 2024 budget and the draft 2025 budget will require far-right votes to pass the National Assembly.
Le Pen will then face an uncomfortable but clear choice. If she supports (or acquiesces to) draconian spending cuts, she won’t face an internal revolt, but she’ll be accused by the left and even some on the right of being a tool of the establishment. But if she precipitates the government’s collapse only weeks into her newfound kingmaker role, she’ll be blamed for plunging France into an unprecedented political and economic crisis. She will also potentially spoil her best chance to influence the country’s direction, legitimize the National Rally, and win the presidency in her fourth attempt in 2027. On balance, Le Pen will probably go the “responsible” way in this instance, choosing to edge Barnier’s government toward her preferred policies while keeping her veto powder dry for future legislative priorities.
And that is precisely the problem for Macron and Barnier. Even if they manage to steer France out of this budget crisis, Le Pen’s calculus could change at any moment – and it will be within her power to bring down the government whenever she pleases. All she has to do is add her party’s 142 assembly votes to the 193 held by the four-party left alliance – which is furious at Macron and will undoubtedly introduce, not to mention support, countless censure motions – to produce many more votes than the 289 needed for a majority.
Macron’s shock election has placed the fate of France’s fragile new government in the hands of his archrival. Quite the failure for a leader who had made it his life’s mission to consign Le Penism to the dustbin of history. Whether or not she ends up succeeding him in 2027, Le Pen has never been closer to the levers of power than she is today.
French President Emmanuel Macron speaks with then-EU Chief Brexit Negotiator Michel Barnier in February 2019.
France’s new PM: Barnier gets the job, but Le Pen holds the cards
Barnier’s biggest job will be to reassure Brussels and investors that he can lead France out of the political and fiscal crisis that has plagued the country for months. In particular, he’ll have to fill a big shortfall in this year’s budget and pass a deficit-cutting budget for 2025. To help with this tall task, he’ll try to form a national unity government that includes influential politicians from the center-left, Macron’s centrist bloc, and the center-right.
But, as Eurasia Group’s lead Europe expert Mujtaba Rahman warns, Barnier doesn’t begin from a position of political strength. He represents his country’s center-right, which won just 47 of the 577 deputies in the new National Assembly. “The key figure for Barnier’s survival will be the far right’s Marine Le Pen," Rahman says. Given the math, and the eagerness of the far left to push Barnier out, “Le Pen has the power to bring down the Barnier government whenever she chooses."
Marine Le Pen, French far-right leader and far-right Rassemblement National (National Rally - RN) party candidate, reacts on stage after partial results in the first round of the early French parliamentary elections in Henin-Beaumont, France, June 30, 2024.
Can Le Pen rewrite French politics next week?
Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally party, aka RN, topped the first round of voting on Sunday, winning about a third of the French vote – the best showing in the party’s half-century history. But in next Sunday’s round two, will she be able to win a majority?
Non: Macron’s Ensemble party, which placed third with about 20%, is hobbled, but the left and center right are also closing ranks against Le Pen. In hundreds of races, they’re withdrawing third-place candidates to consolidate direct challenges to RN. Respected pollsters predict about 270 seats for Le Pen, 19 shy of a majority.
That would mean a chaotic, hung parliament and a caretaker government overseen by a technocrat. President Emmanuel Macron would be a lame duck for the last three years of his presidency. Count France out of any major EU initiatives during that time.
Oui: If collapsing most races into two-way contests alienates voters and suppresses turnout, the RN benefits from greater motivation among its base. And of course, pollsters have historically had trouble accurately predicting RN’s appeal.
The loser: In calling these snap elections after Le Pen surged in European Parliament elections, Macron gambled that, as in the past, the French people would have little appetite for far-right rule at home. No matter what happens next Sunday he – and the liberal centrist movement he has built – have lost that bet.
French President Emmanuel Macron speaks next to NATO Secretary General after a meeting at the Elysee Presidential Palace in Paris on June 24, 2024.
Macron’s election gambit looks doomed to fail
France faces a nail-biter snap election this Sunday. Barring one of the biggest polling errors in French history, President Emmanuel Macron is set to lose his parliamentary majority.
Where are the polls? The far-right National Rally, aka RN, party led by Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella is ahead with 35-38% of the vote, far exceeding Macron’s party, which is polling around 20% and falling. But an unlikely alliance of leftist parties calling itself the New Popular Front, or NFP, is garnering 28-31% of the vote, and given France’s unpredictable two-round voting system, the final result is anyone’s guess.
The worst-case scenario for Macron: Voters who fear the far right flock to the NFP, while those who fear the left go to RN in a mutual attempt to block the other’s chances of forming a government — squeezing Macron’s centrists out.
There’s a chance RN can pull off a slim majority, which would make Bardella Macron’s new prime minister – hardly a recipe for productive governance. Bardella says he won’t form a minority government and risk a rapid ejection by a coalition of centrists and left-wingers.
The left, meanwhile, is less likely to get a majority, and even if they did, they can’t agree on who would get to be PM.
What about a deadlock? This might be Macron’s best bet. He could then attempt to form a national unity government with a technocratic moderate as PM. Failing that, he could keep the current government with reduced powers in a caretaker capacity for one year before holding new elections — but that’s an unpopular option, and Macron is already deeply unpopular.
Macron’s decision to call snap elections may be one he lives to regret. France will struggle with gridlock and partisanship in virtually all these potential outcomes, which will be detrimental to France – and to Macron’s domestic and geopolitical ambitions.
“It would be ironic,” Ian Bremmerwrote yesterday, “if the man most devoted to building a strong France, Europe, and Ukraine ended up being responsible for weakening all three.”French far-right Rassemblement National (RN) party leader Marine Le Pen and party President Jordan Bardella address militants listens after French President announced he is calling for new general elections on June 30, during an evening gathering on the final day of the European Parliament election, at the Pavillon Chesnaie du Roy in Paris, on June 9, 2024.
Left in the dust: European voters swing right
Europe took a hard right turn in European Parliament elections this weekend, dealing a substantial blow to key EU leaders German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and French President Emmanuel Macron, prompting the latter to call early elections.
In France, Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally party surged to 31.5% support – more than twice as much as Macron’s Renaissance coalition, with 14.5%. Close behind are the Socialists and their lead candidate Raphaël Glucksmann with 14%.
A sober-looking Macron took to French television to dissolve parliament and called for elections on June 30, with a second round on July 7. The outcome of the EU elections, he said, was “not a good result for parties who defend Europe.” This is a gamble for Macron: A similar far-right wave in the French parliamentary election could see his party lose its majority.
In Germany, projections show the far-right Alternative for Germany set to secure second place with 16.5% of the vote, a record high. Support for Scholz’s Social Democratic Party and coalition partner Free Democratic Party declined, securing 14% and 5% of the vote, respectively. And Germany’s Greens took the biggest hit, dropping a whopping 8.5 percentage points to 12%, as cash-strapped voters spurned costly environmental policies.
Coalition time: Post-election, European political parties realign in blocs in the EU Parliament. The largest, the center-right European People’s Party, has recently shifted right on issues of security, climate, and migration, and could swing further to the right if joined by Giorgia Meloni’s far-right Brothers of Italy. Another scenario would see Meloni’s group and other far-right parties such as Viktor Orban’s Fidesz party stay with the more hard-line European Conservatives and Reformists group, or become part of a new hard-right group that could form the wake of the elections. We’ll be watching the horse trading as coalitions take shape.Disgraced AfD leader Maximilian Krah.
Euro Parliament group expels AfD
Even the far right has its limits. The European Parliament’s “Identity and Democracy” group of populist right-wing parties – including the Alternative for Germany, France’s National Rally, and Italy’s League, among others – expelled all nine AfD members on Thursday.
The move comes just weeks ahead of European Parliament elections on June 9 in which the far right is expected to make serious gains. It also comes a day after Maximilian Krah, head of AfD, said he’d step down over two scandals – one involving a senior staffer being charged with spying for China, and another stemming from Krah telling an Italian newspaper that not all members of the Nazi SS were war criminals. But sacrificing Krah wasn’t enough – and National Rally leader Marine Le Pensaid her party needed a “clean break” from AfD.
The expulsion was a bold move, given the AfD’s popularity. As recently as January, it was Germany’s second most popular party, polling at 22%, though it has since dropped six percentage points to tie for second place with the Social Democrat Party.
Polls have predicted the Identity and Democracy group’s number of seats in the European Parliament could rise from 59 to about 84 (some predicted a high of 93 before AfD’s recent scandals). National Rally, meanwhile, is surging in the polls.
What does this mean? Apart from hurting its reputation, expulsion means AfD loses access to the group’s shared resources, collective voice in parliament, and possibly some funding. But it doesn’t mean AfD members can’t run. In fact, party leaders said Thursday that they remained optimistic about the election. “We are confident we will continue to have reliable partners at our side in the new legislative period,” they said.