Trending Now
We have updated our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use for Eurasia Group and its affiliates, including GZERO Media, to clarify the types of data we collect, how we collect it, how we use data and with whom we share data. By using our website you consent to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy, including the transfer of your personal data to the United States from your country of residence, and our use of cookies described in our Cookie Policy.
{{ subpage.title }}
People gather at a petrol station in Bamako, Mali, on November 1, 2025, amid ongoing fuel shortages caused by a blockade imposed by al Qaeda-linked insurgents.
Mali’s insurgency spells trouble for West Africa
One of the most expansive countries in West Africa is on the precipice of falling to an Islamist group that has pledged to transform the country into a pre-modern caliphate.
Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam al-Muslimin (JNIM), a militant group that has pledged allegiance to al-Qaeda, has surrounded Mali’s capital Bamako, blocking fuel from entering the city of four million people, with the aim of bringing down the government.
If that happens, it could be a catastrophe for the 25 million people of Mali – particularly the country’s women.
“It would be the end of secular governance and a shift to a theocratic system and sharia law, the abolition of democracy, lots of violence and repression, massive displacements, terrible for women’s rights and deepening ethnic divides,” said Eurasia Group’s West Africa analyst Jeanne Ramier.
And it would be a geopolitical setback for the ruling military junta’s backers in Moscow.. But the damage could also, Ramier says, spread beyond Mali itself.
“It would be very bad for everyone,” Ramier said of JNIM’s potential takeover. “It would definitely affect countries beyond the Sahel and the whole West Africa region.”
Violent extremism has been a major issue across the Sahel for some time – an estimated 51% of all terrorism-related deaths in the world last year were in the region, per the Council on Foreign Relations. JNIM’s success in Mali has prompted similar uprisings in neighboring Burkina Faso and Niger. The most populous country in the region, Nigeria, has faced jihadist insurgencies from Boko Haram and West African offshoots of ISIS for 16 years. Even countries like Cote d’Ivoire, which has been relatively stable in recent years, hasn’t escaped the violence over the last decade, most notably in 2016 when militants murdered 16 people at a beach resort in Grand Bassam.
So what’s happening in Mali? Once a paragon of democracy in the region, Mali has been going through an internal conflict since 2012 when, in the middle of the Arab Spring, a US-trained Malian colonel overthrew the government.
The country has been under military rule and in flux ever since. A French invasion in 2013, welcomed by many Malians, was initially successful in knocking back Islamist groups that became active around the 2012 coup. But it quickly went awry, as militants reasserted themselves and a military junta that seized power in 2020 severed ties with the French, prompting Paris to withdraw troops later that year and abort the operation altogether in 2022. Russian mercenaries filled the power vacuum when the French left, backing the incumbent military regime which is now on the brink of collapse.
Which other countries are affected? JNIM also has a major presence in neighboring Burkina Faso, where it already controls 40% of the country amid a long running conflict that saw two coups in 2022 alone. Experts believe the momentum that the group has gathered in Mali will only make matters worse there.
Completing the so-called “coup belt” of Sahel countries run by military juntas is Niger, to Mali’s east. The military government there, which seized power in 2023, has also struggled to contain JNIM forces. Like Mali, Niger once had the help of a major outside player in tackling terrorism: the United States had a military presence there in a bid to boost the country’s counterterrorism efforts. US-Niger relations soured after the coup, though, and Washington withdrew all its soldiers from the country last year.
Where else could the jihadist insurgencies spread? Mauritania, Senegal, and even Côte d’Ivoire – all of which border Mali – could be the next targets for radicalization, said Ramier. Coastal states that don’t border Mali, like Ghana and Nigeria, may also be impacted.
Governments in these countries will seek to shore up security to prevent the insurgency spreading. They will deploy soldiers in areas where the militants are rampant. They will beef up border security. They may even seek help from western nations that would want to mitigate a potential migration crisis.
But the question will be whether they can work together to stem the spread. Ramier isn’t hopeful.
“I think the Economic Community of West African States [ECOWAS] will try to act and take a strong stance, but I think they will probably fail to turn the tide.”
Farmers proceed to their fields for cultivation under Nigerian Army escort while departing Dikwa town in Borno State, Nigeria, on August 27, 2025. Despite the threat of insurgent attacks, farmers in Borno are gradually returning to their farmlands under military escort, often spending limited time on cultivation.
What We’re Watching: Trump threatens Nigeria, Jihadis surround Mali’s capital, Latin Americans back US-led regime change in Venezuela
Trump threatens hit on Nigeria over plight of Christians
US President Donald Trump on Saturday threatened military action against Nigeria, Africa’s most populous country, over the government’s alleged failure to protect Christian communities, who make up nearly half of the country’s 231 million people. Nigerian President Bola Tinubu rejected the claims, which echo a growing concern about anti-Christian violence among the American right, though his adviser said he’d “welcome US assistance” in combating jihadist insurgencies such as ISWAP, which have targeted Christian communities. In addition, there has been a surge in sectarian violence in Nigeria this year, a result of intensifying competition for land and resources between farmers, who are typically Christian, and herders, who are mostly Muslim.
Mali on verge of succumbing to jihadis
Meanwhile, in nearby Mali, jihadis have surrounded and blockaded the capital of Bamako, starving the city’s four million residents of fuel. The militants are now on the cusp of taking power from the Russian-backed military junta there. This is the latest twist in a 13-year long conflict that has featured three military coups, a French invasion, a Russian intervention, a French withdrawal, and a notorious jihadi leader nicknamed “One-Eyed Nelson.” The rise of an ultraconservative jihadist caliphate would subject Mali’s people – especially its women – to immense hardship, while also threatening to create a fresh refugee crisis that could ripple towards Europe. It would also mark a fresh setback for Russia, and could boost jihadist groups that have sprouted in neighboring Burkina Faso and Niger.
Split-screen on regime change in Venezuela
Nearly half of Americans oppose US-led regime change in Venezuela, and just 18% support it, a YouGov poll says. But people in the region see things differently, according to a multi-country Bloomberg study that shows 53% of respondents want Tío Sam to knock out Venezuelan strongman Nicolás Maduro. Mexico is the only country where opposition surpasses support for the idea. Within Venezuela? A plurality said they “don’t know.” The US has recently been striking boats it says belong to drug traffickers tied to the Venezuelan regime. But with more US warships in the region than at any time since the 1989-1990 invasion of Panamá, many are wondering if Maduro’s regime itself is the eventual target. (For more on what that could look like, see here.)
Hurricane Melissa, which has developed into a Category 5 storm, moves north in the Caribbean Sea towards Jamaica and Cuba in a composite satellite image obtained by Reuters on October 27, 2025.
Hard Numbers: Major hurricane sweeping through Caribbean, Insurgents implement blockade in Mali, Côte d’Ivoire’s octogenarian leader wins again, Diphtheria on the rise
160,000: Al-Qaeda-linked insurgents are blocking shipments of fuel in Mali, spurring a shortage that has forced schools and gas stations to close. The insurgents are attempting to topple the military-led government. Russia said it would deliver over 160,000 tons of petroleum and agriculture products as it tries to deepen ties with the West African country – though how and when this aid will arrive isn’t clear.
4: Côte d’Ivoire’s President Alassane Ouattara, who is 83, won a fourth term in office, with his former Commerce Minister Jean-Louis Billon conceding defeat following Saturday’s election. Ouattara had clamped down on both the opposition and protests in the build up to the election, and his main two rivals were barred from running (read more here).
30,000: Diphtheria, a bacterial disease that is fatal to young children, is making a worrying comeback in parts of the developing world. In Nigeria, the most-populous country in Africa, nearly 30,000 cases have been reported over the last two years. There have also been outbreaks in Chad, Somalia, Sudan, and Yemen. Lower immunization rates have allowed the disease to spread.
French President Emmanuel Macron speaks to the members of the media, after arriving by plane to attend the Gaza Peace Summit, in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, October 13, 2025.
Hard Numbers: Macron digs in his heels, Mali puts a retaliatory tax on US visitors, Ecuador’s fuel protests heat up, Nobel Prize for Economics criticize protectionism
10,000: Mali will now require US visitors to post a $10,000 bond for tourist and business visas, mirroring a US rule aimed at curbing visa overstays. The move follows similar measures by other African nations amid rising tensions between Washington and the Sahel’s military regimes, which are pivoting toward China and Russia.
10: Protests over Ecuador’s fuel price hikes intensified Sunday as demonstrators in Quito burned tires, blocked roads, and clashed with police. The unrest, led by Indigenous groups opposing President Daniel Noboa’s removal of fuel subsidies, has left one dead and prompted a state of emergency in 10 provinces.
3: Three economists, Joel Mokyr, Philippe Aghion, and Peter Howitt won the 2025 Nobel Prize for their research on how innovation and “creative destruction” drive economic growth and living standards. The laureates warned that progress depends on openness, education, and trade — criticizing protectionism and political attacks on science and academia.
U.S. President Donald Trump and Russia's President Vladimir Putin talk during the family photo session at the APEC Summit in Danang, Vietnam November 11, 2017.
What We’re Watching: Trump to meet Putin in Alaska, Mali’s military arrests own soldiers, China arrests US-friendly diplomat
Trump, Putin set for Alaska summit — without Ukraine
US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin will meet Friday in Alaska to discuss ending the war in Ukraine — but without Kyiv at the table. Experts say a deal is very unlikely without Ukraine’s direct involvement, warning that Ukraine maintains enough European backing to keep fighting if Zelensky rejects terms. Ukraine’s president has vowed not to give up territory, while Russia’s demands include land concessions, a NATO membership ban for Ukraine, and sanctions relief.
Mali’s ruling military arrests own soldiers amid rising national tensions
Malian authorities arrested dozens of their own soldiers last night over allegations that they were trying to overthrow the West African country’s ruling military leaders – and more arrests are to come. The military junta seized control of Mali, a country of 24 million people famed for its gold exports, via a pair of coups in 2020 and 2021, but is now under some pressure amid reports that an Islamist insurgency is making inroads in northern areas. The junta is also facing vocal criticism from former Prime Minister Moussa Mara, who is consequently now also being detained.
China detains key diplomat in managing US-China ties
China quietly detained senior diplomat Liu Jianchao – seen as a potential candidate for the country’s next foreign minister – in late July. While Chinese authorities have not disclosed the reason for his detention, Liu’s disappearance marks the highest-level probe of a Chinese diplomat since the country’s former foreign minister, Qin Gang, was abruptly removed from his post in 2023. Widely recognized for his expertise on stabilizing US-China ties, Liu met with Eurasia Group’s Ian Bremmer during a trip to New York in 2024. His absence leaves a gap in diplomacy at a time when tensions remain high over trade and technology.People gather in front of a makeshift memorial during a commemoration ceremony held to pay tribute to Wagner fighters, who were recently killed in Mali, in central Moscow, Russia, August 4, 2024.
Has the war in Ukraine spilled over into Mali?
On Sunday, Mali’s transitional military government cut diplomatic ties with Ukraine. The move came after Mali accused Kyiv of supplying intelligence to Tuareg separatists involved in a recent attack with an al-Qaida affiliate in the Sahel nation that reportedly resulted in dozens of casualties, including 84 Russian Wagner Group mercenaries and 47 Malian soldiers.
Kyiv denies involvement, but a Malian government spokesperson said the move was catalyzed by comments from a Ukrainian military intelligence spokesperson, Andriy Yusov, who recently said the armed groups involved in the July attack received the “necessary information” to conduct the attack.
The response and backdrop. On Monday, Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry posted a statement on its website condemning Mali’s decision as “short-sighted and hasty,” saying no evidence has been provided to prove Kyiv’s role in the attack. The memo also said Ukraine reserved the right to take necessary actions toward the “unfriendly actions” by Mali.
The spat between Bamako and Kyiv once again raises questions regarding the extent to which the Ukraine-Russia war has spilled into Africa, following prior reports of Ukrainian special forces operating in Sudan to counter Wagner mercenaries. The Wagner Group has been active in Africa for years and was once estimated to have 50,000 fighters in Ukraine. Moscow has restructured and exerted greater control over Wagner ever since its founder, Yevgeny Prigozhin, launched a failed mutiny against Vladimir Putin in 2023 and died in a mysterious plane crash not long after.
This diplomatic feud also comes amid increasingly tense relations between the West, which is closely allied with Kyiv, and Sahel nations like Mali that have gone through coups in recent years.
Burkina Faso's junta leader Captain Ibrahim Traore attends the first ordinary summit of heads of state and governments of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) in Niamey, Niger July 6, 2024.
Hard Numbers: Coup bloc, Gaza school bombed, Ukraine in the dark, Tesla in China, Six days in Greece
3: Junta leaders from Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso announced Saturday they would form their own international bloc and “irrevocably” turn away from ECOWAS, just ahead of the latter’s summit on Sunday. Burkina Faso’s President Ibrahim Traoré claimed the new alliance would stand up to Western influence in Africa, saying “These imperialists have only one cliché in mind: ‘Africa is the empire of slaves’.”
16: An Israeli attack on a UNRWA school in Gaza killed at least 16 people and wounded 50 on Saturday, according to the Hamas-run Gaza Health Ministry. UNRWA officials said at least 500 people have now been killed while sheltering in its facilities in Gaza, but Israel claims Hamas often uses the facilities as operating bases, essentially positioning civilians as human shields.
100,000: Russian airstrikes on power infrastructure in northern Ukraine left over 100,000 households in the dark on Saturday night. Targeting energy plants and transmission equipment has become a key strategy for Russia in its attempts to damage civilian morale in Ukraine, and the country’s energy utility says it has lost nine gigawatts of power capacity over the last three months — enough to power the entire Netherlands.
947,000: Tesla has officially been added to a list of approved government vehicle purchases in the Chinese province of Jiangsu, the only foreign-owned EV manufacturer on the list. However, the company manufactured over 947,000 cars at its Shanghai factory last year, most of which were sold in China.
6: Greece is experimenting with a six-day workweek, which allows firms that operate 24 hours a day to schedule employees to work up to eight hours at 40% overtime on the sixth day after a regular 40-hour workweek. They also have the option to spread 40 hours across six 6.5-hour work days. Workers are critical of the new rules, which seem to run against positive experiences some countries have had with four-day workweeks.FILE PHOTO: Russian officers from the Wagner Group are seen around Central African president Faustin-Archange Touadera, as they are part of the presidential security system during the referendum campaign to change the constitution and remove term limits, in Bangui, Central African Republic July 16, 2023.
Have gun, will travel? Russia wants you in Africa
Moscow has reportedly begun recruiting 20,000 soldiers to be deployed to at least five Russia-aligned African countries to replace Wagner Group mercenaries previously stationed there as Russia deepens its influence on the continent.
Just how many recruits “Africa Corps” can drum up is not clear (nor is why they named themselves after a Nazi unit, Afrika Korps, that got its arse kicked up and down Libya before surrendering en masse). Many Wagner fighters took contracts with the Ministry of Defense after an aborted revolt by former leader Yevgeny Prigozhin resulted in his death and the company’s disbandment, and those with experience in Africa may be rolled into the new unit. Then again, with Moscow trying to find 250,000 more men to throw into Ukraine, some recruits may figure that sweating it out in the Sahel beats getting shelled in a rat-infested trench.
The troops will provide security for coup leaders in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, as well as the House of Representatives government in Libya (not recognized by the United Nations) and the Central African Republic, which has drifted toward Moscow since 2016. In exchange, Russia will help themselves to Wagner’s former commercial fiefdom on the continent, including potentially lucrative mining operations producing gold, diamonds, and valuable industrial minerals.
But it’s a gamble: Wagner’s force in Africa was only ever a fraction of the size of this putative Africa Corps, and as a nominally private company, Moscow could shrug its shoulders when Wagner fighters committed atrocities. Now, the Russian flag would be undeniably flying over the murder, torture, and rape of civilians – but color us skeptical that the potential international opprobrium will hold them back one bit.